fabriziof
Forumer storico
lo so ma non le consigliavo a te .
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1
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discipline
Guest
Non ricordo chi l'ha in ptf, compreso il sottoscritto
Mexican Homebuilder Javer’s IPO Would Reduce Financial Leverage
Last Monday, Servicios Corporativos Javer, S.A.P.I. de CV (B2 stable), one of Mexico’s biggest homebuilders,
filed plans for an initial public offering (IPO) on the Mexican Stock Exchange and said it will use proceeds to
reduce debt.
The IPO would be credit positive for Javer, particularly if it is able to reduce its debt/EBITDA ratio to well
below 3.0x in 2015 from about 4.5x at the end of 2014. The IPO plan and improvement in financial metrics
come as Mexico’s homebuilders face tougher business conditions, which would make Javer’s debt
repayment particularly well timed. The bulk of Javer’s debt is denominated in US dollars, but Mexico’s peso
has depreciated by about 10% against the dollar since late 2014, and will likely remain weak in 2015. Since
Javer has no currency hedges for its outstanding debt, a significant reduction in its debt will reduce its
exposure to the weak peso. And, Javer’s EBIT/interest expense ratio should also improve, reaching nearly
20% in 2015, up from 16% in 2014.
Mexico’s homebuilders will increasingly benefit from more stable business prospects this year, particularly
since the government has clarified its housing policies, giving homebuilders a better basis for planning after
a weak period in 2012-13.1
In addition to a substantial debt reduction, we also expect that Javer’s revenues will grow by low-doubledigit
percentages for the next couple of years, based on the company’s strong land inventory after a record
year of purchases. Much of the land that Javer bought in 2014 was already permitted or close to being
permitted, allowing faster turnaround times for construction. Since Javer’s land reserves and titled homes
are skewed today toward the more lucrative mid-priced segment, as shown in the exhibit, the company will
probably report higher average prices this year, with mid-priced home sales outpacing low-priced homes.
Still, 2015 will not be easy for Mexico’s homebuilders. They expect just MXN8.4 billion ($545 million) in
federal subsidies for homebuyers this year – well below the MXN11.6 billion granted in 2014 – and federal
budget cuts add to the uncertainty over future housing subsidies. This is particularly relevant for Javer
because around 55% of its units titled were sold with a subsidy in 2014. To get a subsidy, the homebuyer
must meet criteria that generally targets low- and middle-income buyers.
Midterm elections this year in many of the states and municipalities where Javer has a presence, including
Nuevo Leon and Jalisco, create more uncertainty. Midterm elections in 2009 resulted in a severe slowdown
in obtaining construction licenses and permits, delaying breaking ground on new developments. But Javer in
the past has quickly shifted its product portfolio with changing market conditions.
The IPO will also benefit Javer’s corporate governance practices. Javer has generally had stronger corporate
governance practices than other private companies, making public its earnings reports and holding investor
calls every quarter. But now Javer by law must follow federal Mexican public company regulatory rules,
strengthening its transparency
Mexican Homebuilder Javer’s IPO Would Reduce Financial Leverage
Last Monday, Servicios Corporativos Javer, S.A.P.I. de CV (B2 stable), one of Mexico’s biggest homebuilders,
filed plans for an initial public offering (IPO) on the Mexican Stock Exchange and said it will use proceeds to
reduce debt.
The IPO would be credit positive for Javer, particularly if it is able to reduce its debt/EBITDA ratio to well
below 3.0x in 2015 from about 4.5x at the end of 2014. The IPO plan and improvement in financial metrics
come as Mexico’s homebuilders face tougher business conditions, which would make Javer’s debt
repayment particularly well timed. The bulk of Javer’s debt is denominated in US dollars, but Mexico’s peso
has depreciated by about 10% against the dollar since late 2014, and will likely remain weak in 2015. Since
Javer has no currency hedges for its outstanding debt, a significant reduction in its debt will reduce its
exposure to the weak peso. And, Javer’s EBIT/interest expense ratio should also improve, reaching nearly
20% in 2015, up from 16% in 2014.
Mexico’s homebuilders will increasingly benefit from more stable business prospects this year, particularly
since the government has clarified its housing policies, giving homebuilders a better basis for planning after
a weak period in 2012-13.1
In addition to a substantial debt reduction, we also expect that Javer’s revenues will grow by low-doubledigit
percentages for the next couple of years, based on the company’s strong land inventory after a record
year of purchases. Much of the land that Javer bought in 2014 was already permitted or close to being
permitted, allowing faster turnaround times for construction. Since Javer’s land reserves and titled homes
are skewed today toward the more lucrative mid-priced segment, as shown in the exhibit, the company will
probably report higher average prices this year, with mid-priced home sales outpacing low-priced homes.
Still, 2015 will not be easy for Mexico’s homebuilders. They expect just MXN8.4 billion ($545 million) in
federal subsidies for homebuyers this year – well below the MXN11.6 billion granted in 2014 – and federal
budget cuts add to the uncertainty over future housing subsidies. This is particularly relevant for Javer
because around 55% of its units titled were sold with a subsidy in 2014. To get a subsidy, the homebuyer
must meet criteria that generally targets low- and middle-income buyers.
Midterm elections this year in many of the states and municipalities where Javer has a presence, including
Nuevo Leon and Jalisco, create more uncertainty. Midterm elections in 2009 resulted in a severe slowdown
in obtaining construction licenses and permits, delaying breaking ground on new developments. But Javer in
the past has quickly shifted its product portfolio with changing market conditions.
The IPO will also benefit Javer’s corporate governance practices. Javer has generally had stronger corporate
governance practices than other private companies, making public its earnings reports and holding investor
calls every quarter. But now Javer by law must follow federal Mexican public company regulatory rules,
strengthening its transparency
Joe Silver
Forumer storico
euro
...ed anche quelli da 100K hanno rendimenti bassissimi, salvo passare a ciofecone sulle quali è azzardato metter 100K
...ed anche quelli da 100K hanno rendimenti bassissimi, salvo passare a ciofecone sulle quali è azzardato metter 100K
Joe Silver
Forumer storico
General Shopping
Intendevo dire che OTC (almeno con IWBank) non ci sono controparti operative (cioè che le vendano).
Cioè (scusa l'ignoranza) chi ce l'ha, non la vende?
Eppure scusami guardando i movimenti di "sell" ce ne sono
Bond Trade Activity Search Results
Ma qui a Novembre è prevista la call a 100 giusto?
Grazie mille
Intendevo dire che OTC (almeno con IWBank) non ci sono controparti operative (cioè che le vendano).
CEDOLONE
Forumer storico
fabriziof
Forumer storico
CEDOLONE
Forumer storico
Fabri ....ho capito.....
sai bisogna sperare a volte....ormai mi sono abituato troppo bene con le BEI....
fabriziof
Forumer storico
arkymede74
Forumer storico
Discipline... hai colto nel segno... hai il mio stesso timore...
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