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Rating Action:
Moody's downgrades CMA CGM's corporate family rating to B2 from B1; outlook stable
25 Sep 2019
Stockholm, September 25, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today downgraded the corporate family rating of CMA CGM S.A. (CMA CGM) to B2 from B1 and its probability default rating to B2-PD from B1-PD. Concurrently, the company's senior unsecured ratings were downgraded to Caa1 from B3. The outlook was changed to stable from negative.
"Today's rating action reflects that CMA CGM's liquidity profile has weakened materially in the last 12 months as a consequence of the acquisition of CEVA Logistics AG, although expected by Moody's to improve somewhat in 2020", says Daniel Harlid, Assistant Vice President -- Analyst and lead analyst for CMA CGM.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade of CMA CGM's rating follows the acquisition of CEVA Logistics AG (Ceva, B2 Stable), that together with the a large capex programme and difficult, albeit stable, market environment has and will continue to put pressure on the company's liquidity profile. Given Moody's base case, where the free cash flow generation of the company leaves very limited room for debt reduction, Moody's now expects adjusted debt/EBITDA to be sustained above 5x and adjusted FFO Interest coverage to be sustained below 3x during the next 12-18 months.
Moody's notes that CMA GCM has historically shown good access to capital and that there is some optionality when it comes to delay capex which would improve the current liquidity profile. Also, Moody's understands the company is planning to sell a minority stake in Ceva and divest terminals; both these actions would improve liquidity. Nevertheless, today's rating action reflects that available liquidity has decreased substantially since June 2018, when the company had $1.6 billion of cash on balance sheet and $1.2 billion of undrawn RCFs. This is in stark contrast with the liquidity position in June 2019, consisting of $1.5 billion (of which $270 million is at a Ceva level) and only around $280 million in undrawn RCFs.
In terms of environmental, governance and social factors, CMA CGM's rating reflects the elevated environmental risk facing the shipping sector, such as carbon regulation and air pollution. More precisely, the IMO2020 regulation which comes into force 1 January 2020 will most likely increase bunker costs for shipping companies initially before they will be able to pass it through to shippers. Moody's notes as positive that CMA already has agreements in place with contracted customers to include a new Bunker Adjustment Factor based on the new low sulfur fuel. The rating also incorporates risks related to its ownership of Ceva, more precisely linked to related-party transactions and that the deputy chief financial officer ("CFO") of CMA CGM will be CFO for Ceva. That being said, CMA's board consists of two independent directors which helps mitigate corporate governance risks.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The Caa1 rating of CMA CGM's senior unsecured notes is two notches lower than the CFR as it reflects not only their pari passu ranking with all other unsecured indebtedness issued by the company, but also their contractual subordination to secured debt existing within the group.
OUTLOOK
As Moody's currently have a stable outlook on the container shipping sector, expectations on CMA CGM's operating performance for the next 12-18 months reflects volumes growing with low single digits coupled with some further improvements in operating expenses per TEU (excluding bunker costs). This translates to a Moody's-adjusted EBIT margin in the range of 3.5%-4.0% and Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA of 5.6x-5.1x. The stable outlook is also based on a successful divestment of terminals for a total amount of at least $500 million.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
Positive ratings pressure could arise if CMA CGM's leverage, measured as debt/EBITDA, would be close to or below 5x and its coverage measured as funds from operations plus interest expense over interest expense exceeded 3x on a sustained basis. A prerequisite for an upgrade would, however, first and foremost, be an improved liquidity profile.
Negative rating pressure could arise if CMA CGM's leverage increases above 6x for a prolonged period of time or (FFO + interest expense)/interest expense declines below 2x. A failure to divest terminals as per management's current plan could also exert negative pressure on the current rating.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Shipping Industry published in December 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
COMPANY PROFILE
CMA CGM is the fourth-largest provider of global container shipping services. The company operates primarily in the international containerized maritime transportation of goods, but its activities also include container terminal operations, intermodal, inland transport and logistics. CMA CGM recorded revenues of $23.5 billion in 2018.