Si anch’io quasi allo stesso prezzo e stesso addebito
ma sarebbe interessante avere una valutazione degli ultimi conti
Qquebec dove sei?
Situazione non bella, ma nemmeno da fasciarsi la testa. Hanno anche cambiato il management. Dopo la pubblicazione dei conti, il bond è sceso a 92 (non è crollato), quindi appare scontato il periodo di difficoltà. Loro scrivono...
The Management Board expects net sales for the year as a whole to be slightly below the previous year's level of around € 2.490 billion. EBITDA excluding restructuring result and excluding the non-recurring income from the sale of Hi-Tech Coatings is expected to be in a range of 5.5 to 6.0 percent of sales. The after-tax result will accordingly be slightly negative. On the basis of the announced EBITDA range, the leverage, including the effects of the first-time application of IFRS 16, should be around 2.
La cartina tornasole di questa società, più che il bond sembra essere l'azione che a Francoforte quota 0,89, il minimo di sempre (il bond fu emesso nel 2015 con il titolo azionario che valeva 2,4 in rifinanziamento di un altro bond con cedola 8,5%). Quindi, tecnicamente HD è messa peggio di allora. Servirà rafforzamento patrimoniale che - come sappiamo - può passare da un semplice adc per i soci a un coinvolgimento anche dei creditori.Considerato che il bond scade prima dei finanziamenti bancari garantiti, c'è da pensare che saranno solo i soci a metterci i soldi.
A settembre 2019 il rating di HD è stato portato da Moody's a B3 con outlook stabile (il bond è Caa1), ora sicuramente l'outlook passerà a negativo non escludendo lo scivolamento in area C.
RATINGS RATIONALE
"Moody's decision to downgrade Heidelberg's ratings by one notch was triggered by the material increase in leverage to
7.3x debt/EBITDA for the last twelve months ended June 2019 on the back of weak performance. While the increase was driven by lower operating profitability with a Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin decrease to 3.2% in LTM ended June 2019 from 3.8% as per end of March 2019, the higher than anticipated working capital outflow resulted in a further debt increase," says Dirk Steinicke, lead analyst for Heidelberg at Moody's. "Following the Q1 2019/20 results the management lowered its profitability guidance combined with a softening industrial environment, which may create additional challenges for Heidelberg," he added. This is in line with Moody's industry outlook for the global manufacturing industry which changed to negative from stable recently.
Heidelberg's B3 CFR reflects its
(1) increasingly difficult business environment as industry consolidation continues;
(2) weak profitability, that we expect to stabilize, with a Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin of around 3.0%-3.5% for the next 12 to 18 months, including special items related to portfolio right sizing;
(3) high Moody's-adjusted leverage of 7.3x debt/EBITDA for the LTM ended June 19 (this includes sizeable pension obligations, which account for almost 50% of Heidelberg's adjusted debt);
(4) multiyear and ongoing restructuring activity, which is needed to reposition the group in a structurally changing industry, while such measures still need to prove effective; and
(5) volatile and mostly negative free cash flow (FCF) generation in the last five years. However, FCF is likely to strengthen over the next two to three years, with expectedly reduced capital expenditures and restructuring costs. The
stable outlook reflects our expectation of Heidelberg's realigned business to enable moderate top line and stabilization of profitability of 3.0% to 3.5% EBITA margin as adjusted by Moody's. The stable outlook also incorporates our assumption that Heidelberg's adjusted leverage will remain somewhat above 7x debt/EBITDA over the next two years, while we expect negative FCF in 2020 before it turns to break-even in 2021.
We view Heidelberg's
liquidity as adequate. As of 30 June 2019, the group had access to over EUR 107 million unrestricted cash on its balance sheet, which, together with projected funds from operations of about EUR70 million in the next 12 months (after restructuring payments), and access to undrawn EUR197 million RCF, will be sufficient to address its short-term cash needs and smaller acquisitions. Main cash uses comprise working cash (3% of expected sales), capital spending of around EUR100 million and the short-term debt repayment including the potential partial repayment of the convertible bond which has a put option. Although FCF will remain negative to break-even at best in 2020, the liquidity assessment positively takes into consideration the group's (1) sizeable committed and undrawn portion of its EUR197 million RCF (maturing in June 2023), and (2) likely compliance with financial covenants, despite moderate headroom.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Heidelberg's capital structure primarily consists of a
senior secured RCF due March 2023 (as amended and extended in March 2018), a
senior secured EUR100 million EIB loan maturing 2023 and
8% senior unsecured notes due May 2022, rated Caa1 (LGD5). These instruments benefit from guarantees of group entities, representing around 75% of total assets. In addition, Heidelberg has issued one senior unsecured convertible notes with a nominal value of EUR59 million, due March 2022 with a put option in 2020, which do not benefit from group guarantees. The Caa1 rating on the senior unsecured bond takes into consideration its junior ranking behind a sizeable amount of senior secured debt. The instrument rating also reflects our view that, in a default scenario, the RCF would be largely used for cash drawings or guarantees. The senior unsecured notes rank ahead of the group's non-guaranteed convertible notes.
