Near
Forumer storico
scusa avevi messo "bond e azioni in rally",
ma ieri avevo visto il bond e non mi sembrava in rally, mi riferivo a quello
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 2 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gionmorg
- Data di Inizio
ma ieri avevo visto il bond e non mi sembrava in rally, mi riferivo a quello
Near
Forumer storico
e se vuoi il 7% netto come punterei io dal mio 6% attuale che rischi mi dovrei assumere?
Cleveland-Cliffs +7% after strong Q2 results, improved full-year sales view
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) +6.9% premarket after posting strong Q2 earnings and revenue beats and raising its full-year sales volume outlook.
CLF says Q2 U.S. iron ore pellet sales volume totaled 6M long tons, up 38% from 4.3M long tons in the year-ago quarter, driven by increased customer demand and the impact of the previously disclosed adoption of the new revenue recognition accounting standard.
Q2 realized revenues of $112.60/ton rose 16% Y/Y, primarily due to increased steel pricing and pellet premiums, which are magnified by favorable contract structures.
CLF raises its FY 2018 sales volume guidance by 500K long tons to 21M long tons, citing strong market demand for pellets in the Great Lakes; production volume expectation of 20M long tons is maintained.
"After almost four years of consistent execution of a well-designed and thoroughly implemented strategy, our company has become a very powerful cash-generating enterprise," says Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves. "We expect to generate in 2018 a level of free cash flow that we have not seen in years."
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) +6.9% premarket after posting strong Q2 earnings and revenue beats and raising its full-year sales volume outlook.
CLF says Q2 U.S. iron ore pellet sales volume totaled 6M long tons, up 38% from 4.3M long tons in the year-ago quarter, driven by increased customer demand and the impact of the previously disclosed adoption of the new revenue recognition accounting standard.
Q2 realized revenues of $112.60/ton rose 16% Y/Y, primarily due to increased steel pricing and pellet premiums, which are magnified by favorable contract structures.
CLF raises its FY 2018 sales volume guidance by 500K long tons to 21M long tons, citing strong market demand for pellets in the Great Lakes; production volume expectation of 20M long tons is maintained.
"After almost four years of consistent execution of a well-designed and thoroughly implemented strategy, our company has become a very powerful cash-generating enterprise," says Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves. "We expect to generate in 2018 a level of free cash flow that we have not seen in years."
marcob77
Moderator
Sì, ma visto che un t-bond trentennale rende il 3% netto, non dovrebbe essere troppo difficile trovare qualcosa di appetibile.
cmq ho comprato un altro cip di pemex 2046 a 86,9.. con le quotazioni del petrolio mi sembrava un buon prezzo.
zoroaster
Forumer attivo
come calcoli il 6 o il 7% sul valore della divisa nella quale hai investito o sul rendimento convertito in euro. Se lo ottieni nel secondo caso... tanto di cappelloe se vuoi il 7% netto come punterei io dal mio 6% attuale che rischi mi dovrei assumere?
e se nel primo caso..... siamo sulla stessa barca almeno fin che il dollarino non si rimette al suo posto
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Fitch Affirms Macedonia at 'BB'; Outlook Positive
20 JUL 2018 4:06 PM ET
Fitch Ratings-London-20 July 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Macedonia's Long-Term Foreign and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'BB'. The Outlook is Positive.
A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Macedonia's ratings are supported by a track record of coherent macroeconomic and financial policy, which underpins its longstanding exchange rate peg to the euro. The Positive Outlook reflects a more stable political environment that has increased economic confidence, realigned policy direction towards EU accession, and strengthened international relations.
The coalition government led by the Social Democrats (SDSM) has made credible progress acting on policy commitments since assuming office in June 2017. Urgent initiatives set out under its "3-6-9" reform plan, addressing issues in transparency and independence of public institutions, have largely been implemented. Fiscal transparency has also improved. In addition, initial steps have been undertaken to enhance the business environment for SMEs.
Steadfast progress has been made regarding the long-standing name issue with Greece after both countries' governments signed an agreement on a solution to the name dispute and the establishment of a strategic partnership on 17 June 2018. Following a second round vote held by the Macedonian parliament to ratify the agreement, overturning President Gjorge Ivanov's veto, Greece formally endorsed its support for Macedonia's accession to EU and NATO membership. Consequently, the EU Council has now agreed to set out a path for opening accession negotiations in June 2019, while NATO has formally invited Macedonia to become its 30th member on the conditionality the name dispute is successfully resolved.
A successful resolution to the name dispute will require a change in Macedonia's constitution, for which a referendum is planned to be held later this year. In Fitch's opinion, results of the referendum pose an uncertain political outlook. This will be a big test for the SDSM government, which faces strong opposition from former ruling party and nationalists VMRO-DPMNE.
1Q GDP surprised on the downside, with growth slowing to 0.1% yoy, compared with 1.2% the previous quarter. This is attributed predominately to contracting investment, weighed down by a weak recovery in the construction sector that has recorded successive quarters of negative growth since 1Q17. On the other hand, other sources of domestic growth have been positive. Accommodative financing conditions are supporting positive credit growth and household consumption, while a favourable external environment is supporting activity in export-orientated sectors.
Fitch's latest baseline is for GDP growth of 2.7% in 2018, 3.1% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020. A weak 1Q outturn has meant a downward revision to our previous 2018 forecast of 3.1%. However, an environment of continued political stability and gradual recovery in investment will increase medium-term growth.
Macedonia's business climate, according to the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Survey, stands out as significantly better than the median of its current 'BB' peer group, and supports a stable net inflow of FDI and dynamic export performance. However, structural rigidities in the economy constrain a higher growth potential. Further reforms in the labour market are required. Unemployment is structurally high at 21.9% (end 2017), reflecting a large informal economy. Low productivity growth and skills mismatches present a challenge to the labour market outlook.
Inflation remains relatively contained. Higher oil prices in 2017 led to a pick-up in both headline and core inflation, but this has eased in recent months as inflation expectations remain anchored by exchange rate stability. Fitch's forecast is for average inflation of 1.8% in 2018, from 1.7% in 2017. For 2019-2020, we expect higher average inflation of around 2.0%, driven by both demand and supply side factors (e.g. from higher wage growth, demand for imported goods and services, and higher global commodity prices).
Macedonia's fiscal finances remain broadly in line with the current 'BB' category median. For 2018, Fitch is forecasting Macedonia's fiscal deficit at 2.6% of GDP. Our downward GDP revision means we anticipate lower revenue receipts than government estimates. This is combined with our projection for an under-execution of government capital spending.
Fitch forecasts general government debt at 42.3% of GDP at end-2018 from 39.2% of GDP at end-2017. Despite a projected narrowing of the primary fiscal deficit, the higher debt ratio reflects Macedonia's EUR500 million Eurobond issuance in January 2018, of which EUR92 million was used to buyback part of a 2020 Eurobond. For 2019-2020, further measures in fiscal consolidation will be required. Fitch's latest debt dynamics project a gradual upward trending debt trajectory. Meanwhile, government guarantees on state-owned enterprises, estimated by authorities at 9.9% of GDP for 2018, highlight a wider definition of general government liabilities.
Macedonia's current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.1% of GDP in 2017, from 2.8% of GDP in 2016. However, as the domestic recovery gains traction over the medium term, Fitch projects a widening of the CAD towards 2.6% of GDP, reflecting higher imports of investment related goods, a normalisation of the cyclical upswing of trading partners, as well as higher profit repatriation from foreign companies. Wider CADs are expected to be comfortably financed by net inflows of FDI, but will also contribute towards increasing Macedonia's net external debtor position, which at 27.7% of GDP at end-2017 is significantly wider than most net external debtors in its current peer group.
Macedonia's banking sector remains stable. Banks are well capitalised (average capital adequacy ratio 16.4%, 1Q18), liquid with a system loan-to-deposit ratio at 87% (1Q18), and improving asset quality is underpinned by declining non-performing loans (5.1%, 1Q18 vs 6.3% end 2017) that are well provisioned for (123.9%, 1Q18). Trends in both loan growth and deposits have been positive, benefiting from a more stable political and economic environment.
20 JUL 2018 4:06 PM ET
Fitch Ratings-London-20 July 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Macedonia's Long-Term Foreign and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'BB'. The Outlook is Positive.
A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Macedonia's ratings are supported by a track record of coherent macroeconomic and financial policy, which underpins its longstanding exchange rate peg to the euro. The Positive Outlook reflects a more stable political environment that has increased economic confidence, realigned policy direction towards EU accession, and strengthened international relations.
The coalition government led by the Social Democrats (SDSM) has made credible progress acting on policy commitments since assuming office in June 2017. Urgent initiatives set out under its "3-6-9" reform plan, addressing issues in transparency and independence of public institutions, have largely been implemented. Fiscal transparency has also improved. In addition, initial steps have been undertaken to enhance the business environment for SMEs.
Steadfast progress has been made regarding the long-standing name issue with Greece after both countries' governments signed an agreement on a solution to the name dispute and the establishment of a strategic partnership on 17 June 2018. Following a second round vote held by the Macedonian parliament to ratify the agreement, overturning President Gjorge Ivanov's veto, Greece formally endorsed its support for Macedonia's accession to EU and NATO membership. Consequently, the EU Council has now agreed to set out a path for opening accession negotiations in June 2019, while NATO has formally invited Macedonia to become its 30th member on the conditionality the name dispute is successfully resolved.
A successful resolution to the name dispute will require a change in Macedonia's constitution, for which a referendum is planned to be held later this year. In Fitch's opinion, results of the referendum pose an uncertain political outlook. This will be a big test for the SDSM government, which faces strong opposition from former ruling party and nationalists VMRO-DPMNE.
1Q GDP surprised on the downside, with growth slowing to 0.1% yoy, compared with 1.2% the previous quarter. This is attributed predominately to contracting investment, weighed down by a weak recovery in the construction sector that has recorded successive quarters of negative growth since 1Q17. On the other hand, other sources of domestic growth have been positive. Accommodative financing conditions are supporting positive credit growth and household consumption, while a favourable external environment is supporting activity in export-orientated sectors.
Fitch's latest baseline is for GDP growth of 2.7% in 2018, 3.1% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020. A weak 1Q outturn has meant a downward revision to our previous 2018 forecast of 3.1%. However, an environment of continued political stability and gradual recovery in investment will increase medium-term growth.
Macedonia's business climate, according to the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Survey, stands out as significantly better than the median of its current 'BB' peer group, and supports a stable net inflow of FDI and dynamic export performance. However, structural rigidities in the economy constrain a higher growth potential. Further reforms in the labour market are required. Unemployment is structurally high at 21.9% (end 2017), reflecting a large informal economy. Low productivity growth and skills mismatches present a challenge to the labour market outlook.
Inflation remains relatively contained. Higher oil prices in 2017 led to a pick-up in both headline and core inflation, but this has eased in recent months as inflation expectations remain anchored by exchange rate stability. Fitch's forecast is for average inflation of 1.8% in 2018, from 1.7% in 2017. For 2019-2020, we expect higher average inflation of around 2.0%, driven by both demand and supply side factors (e.g. from higher wage growth, demand for imported goods and services, and higher global commodity prices).
Macedonia's fiscal finances remain broadly in line with the current 'BB' category median. For 2018, Fitch is forecasting Macedonia's fiscal deficit at 2.6% of GDP. Our downward GDP revision means we anticipate lower revenue receipts than government estimates. This is combined with our projection for an under-execution of government capital spending.
Fitch forecasts general government debt at 42.3% of GDP at end-2018 from 39.2% of GDP at end-2017. Despite a projected narrowing of the primary fiscal deficit, the higher debt ratio reflects Macedonia's EUR500 million Eurobond issuance in January 2018, of which EUR92 million was used to buyback part of a 2020 Eurobond. For 2019-2020, further measures in fiscal consolidation will be required. Fitch's latest debt dynamics project a gradual upward trending debt trajectory. Meanwhile, government guarantees on state-owned enterprises, estimated by authorities at 9.9% of GDP for 2018, highlight a wider definition of general government liabilities.
Macedonia's current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.1% of GDP in 2017, from 2.8% of GDP in 2016. However, as the domestic recovery gains traction over the medium term, Fitch projects a widening of the CAD towards 2.6% of GDP, reflecting higher imports of investment related goods, a normalisation of the cyclical upswing of trading partners, as well as higher profit repatriation from foreign companies. Wider CADs are expected to be comfortably financed by net inflows of FDI, but will also contribute towards increasing Macedonia's net external debtor position, which at 27.7% of GDP at end-2017 is significantly wider than most net external debtors in its current peer group.
Macedonia's banking sector remains stable. Banks are well capitalised (average capital adequacy ratio 16.4%, 1Q18), liquid with a system loan-to-deposit ratio at 87% (1Q18), and improving asset quality is underpinned by declining non-performing loans (5.1%, 1Q18 vs 6.3% end 2017) that are well provisioned for (123.9%, 1Q18). Trends in both loan growth and deposits have been positive, benefiting from a more stable political and economic environment.
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Rating Action:
Moody's changes Jamaica's outlook to positive from stable, affirms B3 rating
20 Jul 2018
New York, July 20, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today affirmed Government of Jamaica's B3 long-term issuer ratings and changed the outlook to positive from stable. Jamaica's senior unsecured ratings were also affirmed at B3, and its senior unsecured shelf ratings were affirmed at (P)B3.
The key drivers for the outlook change to positive are as follows:
1. Ongoing fiscal consolidation, if sustained, supports a continued reduction in Jamaica's government debt burden
2. Improving institutional capacity and policy effectiveness
The affirmation of the B3 rating captures the authorities' commitment to continued fiscal consolidation, implementation of structural reforms, progress in lowering government debt ratios, and reduced external vulnerabilities. These credit strengths are set against the very high government debt ratios, large interest burden, and low GDP growth rates.
In a related action, Moody's has also changed the outlook to positive from stable and affirmed the B3 senior unsecured ratings of government-related entities Air Jamaica Limited and National Road Operating and Construct. Co Ltd.
Jamaica's foreign- and domestic-currency bond and deposit ceilings were unaffected by today's outlook change. The long-term foreign-currency bond and bank deposit ceilings remain at Ba3 and Caa1, respectively. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain at NP. The long-term local-currency bond and bank deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba2.
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR CHANGE IN OUTLOOK TO POSITIVE FROM STABLE
FIRST DRIVER: ONGOING FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, IF SUSTAINED, SUPPORTS A CONTINUED REDUCTION IN JAMAICA'S GOVERNMENT DEBT BURDEN
Moody's believes that the government is likely to run sizeable primary surpluses of some 7.0% of GDP and to report a broadly balanced fiscal accounts. These factors will contribute to maintaining a downward trend in debt metrics. Moody's sees government debt falling to around 100% of GDP by FY2018/19, from 105% in FY2017/18, and anticipates further decline in subsequent years. Even though government debt ratios are likely to remain high and above those of most B3-rated peers, reforms enacted over the past five years will prevent a reversal in achievements to date.
The Jamaican authorities have shown a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation. Over the past five years, the primary balance averaged a 7.4% of GDP surplus and the government accounts has been broadly balanced (average -0.2% of GDP over the past five years). Fiscal consolidation coupled with active liability management has led to a decline in government debt to 105% of GDP in FY2017/18 from 129% in FY2013/14.
The government's efforts have been effective in reducing the rigidity of government expenditures. While still at an elevated level, spending on wages and interest declined to 59% of government revenue in FY2017/18 from 80% in FY2012/13. Measures undertaken to reduce these include the containment of the public sector wage bill through reforms to the hiring and recruitment of public sector workers. The interest burden declined as a result of the reduction in government debt to around 7.0% of GDP in FY2017/18 from 9.5% in FY2012/13.
The government has broadened the tax base increasing tax revenue collection to 26% of GDP in FY2017/18 from 24% in FY2012/13. Tax reforms included a shift from direct to indirect taxation. Furthermore, the government was able to more than offset revenue losses derived from a higher exemption threshold for households by increasing a range of indirect taxes.
Active liability management is improving the government's debt structure, reducing government liquidity risks. As the government extended the average maturity of its external debt, the average time to maturity on the overall debt stock increased to 11.5 years at the end of 2017, up from 8.9 years as of March 2015. Gross financing needs have declined to 9.5% of GDP in FY2018/19 from 18.8% in FY2015/16 and Moody's expects gross financing needs to decline further and remain below the median for B-rated sovereigns as they move to 5.9% of GDP in FY2019/20.
SECOND DRIVER: IMPROVING INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY AND POLICY EFFECTIVENESS
Jamaica has built up a track record of responsible fiscal policy management. Adherence to the IMF programs spans two different administrations and two different political parties with broad consensus among the business community on the need to preserve conservative economic and fiscal policies.
Policy credibility is improving as the government has continuously met quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks set in the IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), which have acted as anchors for fiscal policy over the past five years. Moody's does not expect the government to enter into a new IMF program when the current SBA ends in 2019. Still, Moody's expects the reforms to the fiscal policy framework are likely to prevent a reversal of fiscal consolidation gains after the IMF program expires.
Anchored by the Fiscal Responsibility Framework introduced in 2014 and a fiscal rule, the authorities target a reduction in public debt to 60% of GDP by FY2025/26, along with intermediate targets that contemplate reduction of the wage bill to 9% of GDP by FY2018/19 from 9.6% in FY2017/18, and balanced government accounts in FY2018/19. The government has additionally announced plans to establish an independent fiscal council to add an additional layer of policy oversight.
Reforms adopted by the government go beyond fiscal measures extending to the central bank, e.g., inflation targeting and increased operational independence. The shift to inflation targeting, with a target range of 4%-6%, provides the central bank with a clear mandate for price stability and will support the ongoing liberalization of the exchange rate. In 2017, the Bank of Jamaica introduced a multiple-price foreign-exchange auction system to enhance transparency and liquidity in the foreign-exchange market. Moody's believes these steps will help to anchor inflation expectations, increase exchange rate flexibility, and improve overall macroeconomic stability.
The cumulative impact of these and other reforms have improved macroeconomic conditions, leading to low and stable inflation, a moderate current account deficit, higher FDI inflows, and increased levels of international reserves. Combined, these elements increase the overall resilience of the economy.
RATIONALE FOR THE AFFIRMATION OF JAMAICA'S B3 RATING
Jamaica's B3 rating reflects very high government debt ratios, low GDP growth, and vulnerability to external shocks. Despite significant progress in fiscal consolidation and debt reduction, the government's debt burden is among the highest in Moody's rated sovereign universe and a high interest burden weighs on debt affordability. A large share of foreign-currency denominated debt exposes the sovereign balance sheet to an exchange rate shock and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks due to its geographic location and high reliance on the tourism industry.
Real GDP growth has been stagnant over the past decade, not reporting material improvement despite structural reforms. A key risk to Jamaica's fiscal and economic outlook is reform fatigue. While Moody's expects institutional arrangements to prevent a reversal of hard-won fiscal consolidation, if growth remains lackluster maintaining primary surpluses in the order of 7.0% of GDP will prove increasingly difficult.
Offsetting the country's main credit challenges is the authorities' strong commitment to fiscal consolidation and economic reform, which is reflected in Jamaica's institutional strength score which exceeds that of similarly-rated peers. Structural reforms have reduced external vulnerabilities. The external accounts have improved on account of lower oil prices, and a depreciation in the exchange rate contributed to a narrowing current account deficit.
Moody's expects growth to pick up in the coming years with GDP increasing at an average annual rate of 2% in 2018-19, as Jamaica benefits from the expansion of the tourism sector and a pickup in construction activity.
Moody's changes Jamaica's outlook to positive from stable, affirms B3 rating
20 Jul 2018
New York, July 20, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today affirmed Government of Jamaica's B3 long-term issuer ratings and changed the outlook to positive from stable. Jamaica's senior unsecured ratings were also affirmed at B3, and its senior unsecured shelf ratings were affirmed at (P)B3.
The key drivers for the outlook change to positive are as follows:
1. Ongoing fiscal consolidation, if sustained, supports a continued reduction in Jamaica's government debt burden
2. Improving institutional capacity and policy effectiveness
The affirmation of the B3 rating captures the authorities' commitment to continued fiscal consolidation, implementation of structural reforms, progress in lowering government debt ratios, and reduced external vulnerabilities. These credit strengths are set against the very high government debt ratios, large interest burden, and low GDP growth rates.
In a related action, Moody's has also changed the outlook to positive from stable and affirmed the B3 senior unsecured ratings of government-related entities Air Jamaica Limited and National Road Operating and Construct. Co Ltd.
Jamaica's foreign- and domestic-currency bond and deposit ceilings were unaffected by today's outlook change. The long-term foreign-currency bond and bank deposit ceilings remain at Ba3 and Caa1, respectively. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain at NP. The long-term local-currency bond and bank deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba2.
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR CHANGE IN OUTLOOK TO POSITIVE FROM STABLE
FIRST DRIVER: ONGOING FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, IF SUSTAINED, SUPPORTS A CONTINUED REDUCTION IN JAMAICA'S GOVERNMENT DEBT BURDEN
Moody's believes that the government is likely to run sizeable primary surpluses of some 7.0% of GDP and to report a broadly balanced fiscal accounts. These factors will contribute to maintaining a downward trend in debt metrics. Moody's sees government debt falling to around 100% of GDP by FY2018/19, from 105% in FY2017/18, and anticipates further decline in subsequent years. Even though government debt ratios are likely to remain high and above those of most B3-rated peers, reforms enacted over the past five years will prevent a reversal in achievements to date.
The Jamaican authorities have shown a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation. Over the past five years, the primary balance averaged a 7.4% of GDP surplus and the government accounts has been broadly balanced (average -0.2% of GDP over the past five years). Fiscal consolidation coupled with active liability management has led to a decline in government debt to 105% of GDP in FY2017/18 from 129% in FY2013/14.
The government's efforts have been effective in reducing the rigidity of government expenditures. While still at an elevated level, spending on wages and interest declined to 59% of government revenue in FY2017/18 from 80% in FY2012/13. Measures undertaken to reduce these include the containment of the public sector wage bill through reforms to the hiring and recruitment of public sector workers. The interest burden declined as a result of the reduction in government debt to around 7.0% of GDP in FY2017/18 from 9.5% in FY2012/13.
The government has broadened the tax base increasing tax revenue collection to 26% of GDP in FY2017/18 from 24% in FY2012/13. Tax reforms included a shift from direct to indirect taxation. Furthermore, the government was able to more than offset revenue losses derived from a higher exemption threshold for households by increasing a range of indirect taxes.
Active liability management is improving the government's debt structure, reducing government liquidity risks. As the government extended the average maturity of its external debt, the average time to maturity on the overall debt stock increased to 11.5 years at the end of 2017, up from 8.9 years as of March 2015. Gross financing needs have declined to 9.5% of GDP in FY2018/19 from 18.8% in FY2015/16 and Moody's expects gross financing needs to decline further and remain below the median for B-rated sovereigns as they move to 5.9% of GDP in FY2019/20.
SECOND DRIVER: IMPROVING INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY AND POLICY EFFECTIVENESS
Jamaica has built up a track record of responsible fiscal policy management. Adherence to the IMF programs spans two different administrations and two different political parties with broad consensus among the business community on the need to preserve conservative economic and fiscal policies.
Policy credibility is improving as the government has continuously met quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks set in the IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), which have acted as anchors for fiscal policy over the past five years. Moody's does not expect the government to enter into a new IMF program when the current SBA ends in 2019. Still, Moody's expects the reforms to the fiscal policy framework are likely to prevent a reversal of fiscal consolidation gains after the IMF program expires.
Anchored by the Fiscal Responsibility Framework introduced in 2014 and a fiscal rule, the authorities target a reduction in public debt to 60% of GDP by FY2025/26, along with intermediate targets that contemplate reduction of the wage bill to 9% of GDP by FY2018/19 from 9.6% in FY2017/18, and balanced government accounts in FY2018/19. The government has additionally announced plans to establish an independent fiscal council to add an additional layer of policy oversight.
Reforms adopted by the government go beyond fiscal measures extending to the central bank, e.g., inflation targeting and increased operational independence. The shift to inflation targeting, with a target range of 4%-6%, provides the central bank with a clear mandate for price stability and will support the ongoing liberalization of the exchange rate. In 2017, the Bank of Jamaica introduced a multiple-price foreign-exchange auction system to enhance transparency and liquidity in the foreign-exchange market. Moody's believes these steps will help to anchor inflation expectations, increase exchange rate flexibility, and improve overall macroeconomic stability.
The cumulative impact of these and other reforms have improved macroeconomic conditions, leading to low and stable inflation, a moderate current account deficit, higher FDI inflows, and increased levels of international reserves. Combined, these elements increase the overall resilience of the economy.
RATIONALE FOR THE AFFIRMATION OF JAMAICA'S B3 RATING
Jamaica's B3 rating reflects very high government debt ratios, low GDP growth, and vulnerability to external shocks. Despite significant progress in fiscal consolidation and debt reduction, the government's debt burden is among the highest in Moody's rated sovereign universe and a high interest burden weighs on debt affordability. A large share of foreign-currency denominated debt exposes the sovereign balance sheet to an exchange rate shock and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks due to its geographic location and high reliance on the tourism industry.
Real GDP growth has been stagnant over the past decade, not reporting material improvement despite structural reforms. A key risk to Jamaica's fiscal and economic outlook is reform fatigue. While Moody's expects institutional arrangements to prevent a reversal of hard-won fiscal consolidation, if growth remains lackluster maintaining primary surpluses in the order of 7.0% of GDP will prove increasingly difficult.
Offsetting the country's main credit challenges is the authorities' strong commitment to fiscal consolidation and economic reform, which is reflected in Jamaica's institutional strength score which exceeds that of similarly-rated peers. Structural reforms have reduced external vulnerabilities. The external accounts have improved on account of lower oil prices, and a depreciation in the exchange rate contributed to a narrowing current account deficit.
Moody's expects growth to pick up in the coming years with GDP increasing at an average annual rate of 2% in 2018-19, as Jamaica benefits from the expansion of the tourism sector and a pickup in construction activity.
Near
Forumer storico
convertito in euro, perchè sono in italia, anzichè ai caraibi come altri forumisticome calcoli il 6 o il 7% sul valore della divisa nella quale hai investito o sul rendimento convertito in euro. Se lo ottieni nel secondo caso... tanto di cappello
e se nel primo caso..... siamo sulla stessa barca almeno fin che il dollarino non si rimette al suo posto
comunque ho comprato basso quando ho potuto, ovvero quando le società non le voleva nessuno,
le più hanno pagato
altre, come rickmers o airberlin mi hanno restituito spiccioli
per questo adesso ho il fuochino al fondo schiena e non riesco a comprare community health, che mi darebbe quasi il 10 netto ma ho paura che non mi restituisca il capitale.
oppure le provincie argentine