Sears files for bankruptcy, a credit positive for competitors
On 15 October, Sears Holdings Corp. (Ca stable) filed for Chapter 11, which we view as credit positive over the longer term for many of the retailer's national competitors, particularly in the apparel and soft home segments. Mall anchors that serve the middle-income segment such as J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (B3 stable) and Macy’s, Inc. (Baa3 stable), as well as off-price operators such at TJX Companies, Inc. (A2 stable), stand to benefit from additional sales. The beleaguered Sears, which has aggressively closed stores over the past two years, has been unable to stem its operating losses and will close 142 stores through the bankruptcy process by year-end 2018 – in addition to 46 previously announced closures it will complete by November. Approximately 26% of Sears’ sales are from apparel and soft home. Sears’ apparel and soft home business has shrunk dramatically in recent years, to about $3.7 billion from $6 billion as recently as the fiscal year ended 30 January 2016. Competitors have the opportunity to gain additional market share in apparel and soft home products from the 188 stores that will be liquidated by year-end, as well as any additional closed locations. We expect that Sears will likely sell or close additional stores beyond the 188 to maximize value to its creditors. Sears will be left with fewer than 500 stores after the closures. The bankruptcy filing comes at a point when recent liquidations such as those of Bon-Ton and Toys “R” Us suggest that Sears will face significant challenges as its attempts to reemerge as a going concern. The company's ongoing store reduction has done little to stem operating losses. We expect that Sears' closures in malls that are already strong performers will ultimately be positive for those locations because they will likely attract new tenants and higher traffic. Weaker malls such as those that have already have had a Bon-Ton closure may have their long-term viability reduced.