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US Treasuries subdued by inflation, industry data
Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:50 AM ET
(Adds Chicago data, updates prices)
NEW YORK, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Treasuries nursed modest losses on Monday as strong readings on U.S. inflation and manufacturing merely added to expectations for more interest rate hikes ahead.
The pullback in prices was limited by month-end portfolio demand, but traders looked for a slow grind lower given much of the rest of the week's data were also expected to be upbeat.
The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 4/32 in price, while its yield rose to 4.28 percent from 4.27 percent on Friday. Yields on the two-year note (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) edged up to 3.55 percent from 3.53 percent.
The market came under early pressure after an unexpectedly large rise in core U.S. inflation revived concerns that official interest rates might have to rise faster and farther than first thought.
The core price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3 percent in January, above most expectations. Annual growth climbed to 1.6 from 1.5 percent, when most analysts had looked for a slight slowdown.
"This is a significant surprise, given that it is the price measure that the Fed and Greenspan in particular focuses on," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4CAST. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is set to appear before the House Budget committee this Wednesday.
"The data is likely to affirm some views that inflation will only remain contained, if the Fed tightens substantially," said Ruskin. "It's a significant negative for the (yield) curve as a whole, especially the front-end."
The five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 3/32 in price, taking its yield to 3.93 percent from 3.91 percent.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) held steady at 4.64 percent while the gap between two- and 30-year yields narrowed two basis points to 109 basis points.
Adding to the pressure were robust reports on manufacturingfrom Chicago ands New York. The more important Chicago activity index firmed to 62.7 in February, from 62.4 the month before, led by a rise in new orders.
The employment index climbed to 57.7 from 52.8 and stoked speculation the February payrolls report could finally show a substantial gain in jobs when released on Friday.
"The risk is that the February data will prove larger than presently forecast. Thus, the FOMC will have more positive news on the economy to reinforce its determination to push the funds rate up to neutral," said Brian Fabbri, an economist at BNP Paribas.
Such an outcome could well see short-term Treasury yields hit fresh three-year highs and drive a further flattening in the yield curve, though this time it will be of the bearish variety.
Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:50 AM ET
(Adds Chicago data, updates prices)
NEW YORK, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Treasuries nursed modest losses on Monday as strong readings on U.S. inflation and manufacturing merely added to expectations for more interest rate hikes ahead.
The pullback in prices was limited by month-end portfolio demand, but traders looked for a slow grind lower given much of the rest of the week's data were also expected to be upbeat.
The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 4/32 in price, while its yield rose to 4.28 percent from 4.27 percent on Friday. Yields on the two-year note (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) edged up to 3.55 percent from 3.53 percent.
The market came under early pressure after an unexpectedly large rise in core U.S. inflation revived concerns that official interest rates might have to rise faster and farther than first thought.
The core price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3 percent in January, above most expectations. Annual growth climbed to 1.6 from 1.5 percent, when most analysts had looked for a slight slowdown.
"This is a significant surprise, given that it is the price measure that the Fed and Greenspan in particular focuses on," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4CAST. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is set to appear before the House Budget committee this Wednesday.
"The data is likely to affirm some views that inflation will only remain contained, if the Fed tightens substantially," said Ruskin. "It's a significant negative for the (yield) curve as a whole, especially the front-end."
The five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 3/32 in price, taking its yield to 3.93 percent from 3.91 percent.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) held steady at 4.64 percent while the gap between two- and 30-year yields narrowed two basis points to 109 basis points.
Adding to the pressure were robust reports on manufacturingfrom Chicago ands New York. The more important Chicago activity index firmed to 62.7 in February, from 62.4 the month before, led by a rise in new orders.
The employment index climbed to 57.7 from 52.8 and stoked speculation the February payrolls report could finally show a substantial gain in jobs when released on Friday.
"The risk is that the February data will prove larger than presently forecast. Thus, the FOMC will have more positive news on the economy to reinforce its determination to push the funds rate up to neutral," said Brian Fabbri, an economist at BNP Paribas.
Such an outcome could well see short-term Treasury yields hit fresh three-year highs and drive a further flattening in the yield curve, though this time it will be of the bearish variety.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Che è successo 
?
?
gastronomo
Forumer storico
f4f ha scritto:gastronomo ha scritto:Che è successo
Bund e treasury hanno perso 40 ticks in un amen con le borse US in profondo rosso
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
sui bonds orcolo, son uscito una mezz'ora perchè credevo non succedesse una cippa invece è franato 
sempre più T-Bronx
ditro ma il rapporto dell'USDA è il 10 , hai voglia quanto tempo hanno ancora per cucinarti e infilzarti allo spiedo
sempre più T-Bronxditro ma il rapporto dell'USDA è il 10 , hai voglia quanto tempo hanno ancora per cucinarti e infilzarti allo spiedo
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
gastronomo ha scritto:f4f ha scritto:gastronomo ha scritto:Che è successo
Bund e treasury hanno perso 40 ticks in un amen con le borse US in profondo rosso
in fact stanno vendendo tutto su indici , bonds & dollaro e pompando al limite le materie prime
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:gastronomo ha scritto:f4f ha scritto:gastronomo ha scritto:Che è successo
Bund e treasury hanno perso 40 ticks in un amen con le borse US in profondo rosso
in fact stanno vendendo tutto su indici , bonds & dollaro e pompando al limite le materie prime
'Azz corro a fare la spesa
...scherzo, è per dire che ci faranno a tutti del gran male se va avanti così...Similar threads
