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Macroeconomia Immobiliare USA (residenziale e commerciale) e finanza strutturata
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Imark
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Il livello di delinquencies sui loans al CRE americano collateralizzati nei CDOs è stimato da Fitch come tendente ad un raddoppio nel 2010, fino al 25% del totale...
Fitch: U.S. CREL CDO Delinquencies Up Slightly to 12.3%; 25% Possible by YE.
19 Jan 2010 9:00 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-New York-19 January 2010: Delinquencies for U.S. CREL CDOs closed out 2009 with a two basis-point increase to 12.3%, according to the latest CREL CDO delinquency index results from Fitch Ratings.Accounting for previously delinquent loans written down or disposed of at a loss, the CREL CDO delinquency rate would have neared 15%, in line with Fitch's expectation for year-end 2009.
'A continued steady increase in delinquencies is likely for 2010,' said Senior Director Karen Trebach. 'Fitch projects CREL CDO delinquencies to reach 25% by the end of the year.'
The removal of 21 delinquent assets last month nearly offset the addition of 26 new delinquent assets, resulting in only a slight increase from the November total of 12.1%.
New delinquencies were comprised of nine maturity defaults, four term defaults, five impaired CMBS, and eight repurchased assets. Repurchases consisted of four CRE loans and six CMBS assets. While two assets were repurchased at par, the remaining assets were purchased out of CDOs by asset managers at prices ranging from 88% of par for an A-note interest to 1.4% of par for a credit impaired CMBS interest.
The extension of 14 matured balloon loans helped keep overall delinquencies in line with last month's total. While one-third of these loans were granted only short term extensions to allow time for further negotiation; the majority of these extensions were multi-year with several loans receiving principal paydown and/or increased reserve postings among conditions to extension. Overall, there were 51 total extensions reported in December.
Realized losses continue to accumulate with approximately $80 million noted in the December reporting period. To date, total realized losses to CREL CDOs are approximately 4% of the fully-ramped collateral balance. The largest loss in December was related to the sale of an REO (asset owned by the CDO) hotel property that resulted in only a 21% recovery to the CDO.
All 35 Fitch rated CREL CDOS reported delinquencies in December, ranging from 1% to 44%. Additionally, a total of 13 Fitch rated CREL CDOs were failing at least one overcollateralization (OC) test, which is one transaction less than last month as a CDO was able to cure its failure through the extension of several matured balloon loans. Failure of OC tests leads to the cutoff of interest payments to subordinate classes, including preferred shares, which are typically held by the CDO asset managers.
The universe of 35 Fitch rated CREL CDOs currently encompasses approximately 1,100 loans and 350 rated securities/assets with a balance of $23.8 billion. The CREL delinquency index includes loans and assets that are 60 days or longer delinquent, matured balloon loans, and the current month's repurchased assets.
Fitch: U.S. CREL CDO Delinquencies Up Slightly to 12.3%; 25% Possible by YE.
19 Jan 2010 9:00 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-New York-19 January 2010: Delinquencies for U.S. CREL CDOs closed out 2009 with a two basis-point increase to 12.3%, according to the latest CREL CDO delinquency index results from Fitch Ratings.Accounting for previously delinquent loans written down or disposed of at a loss, the CREL CDO delinquency rate would have neared 15%, in line with Fitch's expectation for year-end 2009.
'A continued steady increase in delinquencies is likely for 2010,' said Senior Director Karen Trebach. 'Fitch projects CREL CDO delinquencies to reach 25% by the end of the year.'
The removal of 21 delinquent assets last month nearly offset the addition of 26 new delinquent assets, resulting in only a slight increase from the November total of 12.1%.
New delinquencies were comprised of nine maturity defaults, four term defaults, five impaired CMBS, and eight repurchased assets. Repurchases consisted of four CRE loans and six CMBS assets. While two assets were repurchased at par, the remaining assets were purchased out of CDOs by asset managers at prices ranging from 88% of par for an A-note interest to 1.4% of par for a credit impaired CMBS interest.
The extension of 14 matured balloon loans helped keep overall delinquencies in line with last month's total. While one-third of these loans were granted only short term extensions to allow time for further negotiation; the majority of these extensions were multi-year with several loans receiving principal paydown and/or increased reserve postings among conditions to extension. Overall, there were 51 total extensions reported in December.
Realized losses continue to accumulate with approximately $80 million noted in the December reporting period. To date, total realized losses to CREL CDOs are approximately 4% of the fully-ramped collateral balance. The largest loss in December was related to the sale of an REO (asset owned by the CDO) hotel property that resulted in only a 21% recovery to the CDO.
All 35 Fitch rated CREL CDOS reported delinquencies in December, ranging from 1% to 44%. Additionally, a total of 13 Fitch rated CREL CDOs were failing at least one overcollateralization (OC) test, which is one transaction less than last month as a CDO was able to cure its failure through the extension of several matured balloon loans. Failure of OC tests leads to the cutoff of interest payments to subordinate classes, including preferred shares, which are typically held by the CDO asset managers.
The universe of 35 Fitch rated CREL CDOs currently encompasses approximately 1,100 loans and 350 rated securities/assets with a balance of $23.8 billion. The CREL delinquency index includes loans and assets that are 60 days or longer delinquent, matured balloon loans, and the current month's repurchased assets.
Imark
Forumer storico
Migliorano leggermente le condizioni del mercato immobiliare commerciale nelle rilevazioni di Moody's, sebbene sia presto per dire se si tratti di un miglioramento temporaneo dopo una lunga caduta, oppure se sia preludio ad una progressiva ripresa.
Moody's: U.S. commercial real estate markets show slight improvement
New York, January 19, 2010 -- Commercial real estate markets across the U.S. showed some small signs of improvement, according to Moody's Investors Service Red-Yellow-Green® study for fourth quarter 2009. After a half-year of little movement, some pick-up in projected demand is helping markets.
"While the general theme this quarter is positive, it is too early to conclude that commercial real estate markets are out of the woods," says Moody's Vice President -Senior Analyst Keith Banhazl. "The numbers this quarter are encouraging, but the road to recovery is likely to be long and bumpy."
All but the two hotel sectors showed better market conditions and had higher Red-Yellow-Green® scores than they did in the previous quarter. Despite the improvement, however, all sectors but multifamily continue to show weakness by having composite scores at or below the middle of the range and demand forecasts continue to be negative for the coming year.
A majority of markets -- 51% -- remains in red territory, according to Red-Yellow-Green®, a slight improvement from 53% the previous quarter.
Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new fourth quarter study reflects data from the third quarter of 2009.
SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS
The multifamily sector rode slightly higher into green territory, increasing from 75 to 77. The gap between supply and demand widened favorably during the quarter, from 0.8% to 1.3%.
The retail sector gained four points off a record low 46 to stand at Yellow 50. Both supply and demand metrics improved during the month, as both upcoming supply and demand moved 0.2% in positive directions. The vacancy rate continued to rise, however, increasing from 11.7% to 12.2%.
The score for offices in central business districts (CBDs) increased three points to Yellow 45. Beneficial movement in the supply-demand measurement, from -3.2% to -2.6% drove the score upward, overcoming an upswing in vacancy from 11.7% to 12.0%.
Suburban offices ticked up a single point, to Red 28. Like the CBD sector, the vacancy rate increased, from 17.6% to 18.1%, but the supply-demand imbalance shrank to -2.2% from -2.7%.
The industrial sector saw the halt of a four-quarter decline, as its score rose from Red 26 to Red 30. With both projected absorption and the construction pipeline moving in favorable directions, the supply-demand mismatch improved to -1.7%.
Both of the two hotel sectors, full-service and limited-service, remained at Red 0. Both, however, saw an improvement in year-over-year RevPAR. RevPAR for full-service hotels is down 19.9% over the last year, compared with a 22.8% drop for the previous quarter. After two years of deterioration, the decline in limited service RevPAR over the last year was 19.8%, from 20.7% last quarter.
METROPOLITAN MARKET ANALYSIS
Overall, the composite score for the U.S. was Yellow 38, an increase from 35 the previous quarter.
The scores of the top 10 cities found most frequently in CMBS, based on dollar volume, are as follows, with the previous quarter's score in parenthesis: New York 47 (42), Los Angeles 42 (36), San Francisco 46 (46), Philadelphia 41 (41), Miami 33 (31), Houston 39 (30), Washington DC 40 (38), Atlanta 24 (23), Dallas 29 (26), and Chicago 36 (33).
The five best markets in the U.S. are: Honolulu 59 (52), Las Vegas 53 (49), Pittsburgh 53 (51), Newark 50 (48), and Raleigh NC 49 (45).
The five worst markets in the U.S. are: Detroit 18 (18), Phoenix 22 (21), Atlanta 24 (23), Charlotte 25 (26), and Indianapolis 26 (17).
Moody's: U.S. commercial real estate markets show slight improvement
New York, January 19, 2010 -- Commercial real estate markets across the U.S. showed some small signs of improvement, according to Moody's Investors Service Red-Yellow-Green® study for fourth quarter 2009. After a half-year of little movement, some pick-up in projected demand is helping markets.
"While the general theme this quarter is positive, it is too early to conclude that commercial real estate markets are out of the woods," says Moody's Vice President -Senior Analyst Keith Banhazl. "The numbers this quarter are encouraging, but the road to recovery is likely to be long and bumpy."
All but the two hotel sectors showed better market conditions and had higher Red-Yellow-Green® scores than they did in the previous quarter. Despite the improvement, however, all sectors but multifamily continue to show weakness by having composite scores at or below the middle of the range and demand forecasts continue to be negative for the coming year.
A majority of markets -- 51% -- remains in red territory, according to Red-Yellow-Green®, a slight improvement from 53% the previous quarter.
Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new fourth quarter study reflects data from the third quarter of 2009.
SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS
The multifamily sector rode slightly higher into green territory, increasing from 75 to 77. The gap between supply and demand widened favorably during the quarter, from 0.8% to 1.3%.
The retail sector gained four points off a record low 46 to stand at Yellow 50. Both supply and demand metrics improved during the month, as both upcoming supply and demand moved 0.2% in positive directions. The vacancy rate continued to rise, however, increasing from 11.7% to 12.2%.
The score for offices in central business districts (CBDs) increased three points to Yellow 45. Beneficial movement in the supply-demand measurement, from -3.2% to -2.6% drove the score upward, overcoming an upswing in vacancy from 11.7% to 12.0%.
Suburban offices ticked up a single point, to Red 28. Like the CBD sector, the vacancy rate increased, from 17.6% to 18.1%, but the supply-demand imbalance shrank to -2.2% from -2.7%.
The industrial sector saw the halt of a four-quarter decline, as its score rose from Red 26 to Red 30. With both projected absorption and the construction pipeline moving in favorable directions, the supply-demand mismatch improved to -1.7%.
Both of the two hotel sectors, full-service and limited-service, remained at Red 0. Both, however, saw an improvement in year-over-year RevPAR. RevPAR for full-service hotels is down 19.9% over the last year, compared with a 22.8% drop for the previous quarter. After two years of deterioration, the decline in limited service RevPAR over the last year was 19.8%, from 20.7% last quarter.
METROPOLITAN MARKET ANALYSIS
Overall, the composite score for the U.S. was Yellow 38, an increase from 35 the previous quarter.
The scores of the top 10 cities found most frequently in CMBS, based on dollar volume, are as follows, with the previous quarter's score in parenthesis: New York 47 (42), Los Angeles 42 (36), San Francisco 46 (46), Philadelphia 41 (41), Miami 33 (31), Houston 39 (30), Washington DC 40 (38), Atlanta 24 (23), Dallas 29 (26), and Chicago 36 (33).
The five best markets in the U.S. are: Honolulu 59 (52), Las Vegas 53 (49), Pittsburgh 53 (51), Newark 50 (48), and Raleigh NC 49 (45).
The five worst markets in the U.S. are: Detroit 18 (18), Phoenix 22 (21), Atlanta 24 (23), Charlotte 25 (26), and Indianapolis 26 (17).
Imark
Forumer storico
Altro miglioramento dei prezzi del CRE USA, con robusto rimbalzo dei corsi. Moody's si chiede se si sia in vista del bottom, pur non escludendo ulteriori cali, magari meno marcati di quelli visti nel biennio scorso. Siamo comunque sotto di oltre il 40% dai prezzi al picco di ciclo.
Moody's: US commercial real estate prices increase 4.1% in December
New York, February 22, 2010 -- US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) increased for the second month in a row in December, rising 4.1%.
It was the largest month-over-month increase in the nine year history of the CPPI and followed a small, 1% gain in November. The volume of transactions also rose in December, as is typical for the end of the year. Overall, 716 transactions totaling $9.0 billion were recorded in the month.
Moody's is uncertain whether the price increases represent passing the bottom of the market or are only the volatility of a market in transition.
"Although we are unable to conclude that the bottom to the commercial real estate market is here, we do believe that the period of large price declines is over," says Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "We will need to see data from the first few months of 2010 to develop a better picture of where things stand."
As of the end of December, prices are down 29.2% from a year ago and 39.8% from two years ago. They are 40.8% below their peak values.
National property type indices, which are quarterly, show three of the four major property types recording price gains in the fourth quarter, with only retail posting a slight decline of 1.5%. Offices had the largest gain, at 7.9%, while apartments improved 7.0% during the quarter and industrial increased 5.6%. For the year, however, prices for the four property types have declines that range from 19.0% to 23.2%.
In the top-ten MSAs, which account for about 50% to 80% of the transactions in the national property type indices, apartment prices fell 2.1% in the fourth quarter and industrial prices were down 2.8%. Retail in the top ten saw prices increase 3.1% during the quarter, while offices rebounded with a significant 26.8% increase after declines of almost 20% in the third quarter and 10% in the second quarter.
The CPPI also shows that prices in the West have fared better than the national price index for the full year 2009 in three of the four property types, with offices the exception. Western office prices fell 25.5% in 2009, compared to the national office annual decline of 19.8%. In the fourth quarter, western office values dropped 5.7%.
The CPPI
Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Indices are based on the repeat sales of the same properties across the US at different points in time. Applying price changes measured in this way provides maximum transparency and methodological rigor. This approach also circumvents the distortions that can occur with other commercial property value measurements such as appraisals or average prices, says Moody's.
The report, "Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices, February 2010," is available on the company's website, OpenDNS. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies in "Structured Finance Quick Check" at Moodys.com.
Moody's: US commercial real estate prices increase 4.1% in December
New York, February 22, 2010 -- US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) increased for the second month in a row in December, rising 4.1%.
It was the largest month-over-month increase in the nine year history of the CPPI and followed a small, 1% gain in November. The volume of transactions also rose in December, as is typical for the end of the year. Overall, 716 transactions totaling $9.0 billion were recorded in the month.
Moody's is uncertain whether the price increases represent passing the bottom of the market or are only the volatility of a market in transition.
"Although we are unable to conclude that the bottom to the commercial real estate market is here, we do believe that the period of large price declines is over," says Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "We will need to see data from the first few months of 2010 to develop a better picture of where things stand."
As of the end of December, prices are down 29.2% from a year ago and 39.8% from two years ago. They are 40.8% below their peak values.
National property type indices, which are quarterly, show three of the four major property types recording price gains in the fourth quarter, with only retail posting a slight decline of 1.5%. Offices had the largest gain, at 7.9%, while apartments improved 7.0% during the quarter and industrial increased 5.6%. For the year, however, prices for the four property types have declines that range from 19.0% to 23.2%.
In the top-ten MSAs, which account for about 50% to 80% of the transactions in the national property type indices, apartment prices fell 2.1% in the fourth quarter and industrial prices were down 2.8%. Retail in the top ten saw prices increase 3.1% during the quarter, while offices rebounded with a significant 26.8% increase after declines of almost 20% in the third quarter and 10% in the second quarter.
The CPPI also shows that prices in the West have fared better than the national price index for the full year 2009 in three of the four property types, with offices the exception. Western office prices fell 25.5% in 2009, compared to the national office annual decline of 19.8%. In the fourth quarter, western office values dropped 5.7%.
The CPPI
Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Indices are based on the repeat sales of the same properties across the US at different points in time. Applying price changes measured in this way provides maximum transparency and methodological rigor. This approach also circumvents the distortions that can occur with other commercial property value measurements such as appraisals or average prices, says Moody's.
The report, "Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices, February 2010," is available on the company's website, OpenDNS. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies in "Structured Finance Quick Check" at Moodys.com.
Ultima modifica:
Imark
Forumer storico
Ancora in miglioramento la situazione del CRE USA rispetto al trimestre precedente...
Moody's: U.S. Commercial real estate markets continue improvement
New York, April 13, 2010 -- Commercial real estate markets across the U.S. continued to show signs of improvement, according to Moody's Investors Service Red-Yellow-Green® study for first quarter 2010, which incorporates 12-month forecasts. The supply pipeline of new properties continued to shrink across almost all sectors while projected demand improved.
"This quarter's numbers maintained the positive theme that began last quarter," says Moody's Vice President-Senior Analyst Keith Banhazl. "While vacancy rates remain high, generally due to the poor absorption experienced in 2009, projections show a slowdown in negative absorption over the next year."
All but the two hotel sectors showed better market conditions and had higher Red-Yellow-Green® scores than they did in the previous quarter. Although the largest share of markets--43%-- remain in red territory, the proportion is an improvement from the final quarter of 2009 when a majority of the markets—51%--were in red territory, according to Red-Yellow-Green®. The share of markets that are green increased from 13% to 17% and that are yellow from 36% to 41%.
Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new 2010 first quarter study reflects data from the fourth quarter of 2009.
SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS
The multifamily sector rose slightly higher into green territory, increasing from 77 to 81. The gap between supply and demand narrowed slightly, from 0.8% to 0.7% during the quarter.
The retail sector rose from Yellow 50 to Yellow 56. Improvements in supply and demand outweighed a rise in the vacancy rate, from 12.2% to 12.4%. During the quarter the supply-demand imbalance shrank from -0.7% to -0.3%, helping the markets.
The score for offices in central business districts (CBDs) jumped seven points to Yellow 52. As in retail, an improvement in supply and demand, the imbalance shrinking from -2.6% to -1.4%, outweighed an increase in vacancies, which rose from 12.0% to 12.5%.
Suburban offices leaped into yellow territory, rising seven points from Red 28 to Yellow 35. Improvement in the supply-and-demand imbalance, which narrowed from -2.2% to -1.2%, propelled the rise.
The industrial sector also left red territory, increasing from Red 30 to Yellow 41. The composite vacancy rate remains high, however, and increased to 13.9% from 13.5%. Positive projected absorption and less in the production pipeline led to the Yellow score.
Both of the two hotel sectors, full-service and limited-service, remained at Red 0. Both, however, also saw an improvement in most metrics. In the full-service hotel sector, year-over-year RevPAR declined significantly to 11.7% from 19.9% the previous quarter. The limited service hotel sector saw year-over-year RevPAR decline to 13.9% from the previous quarter's 19.8%.
METROPOLITAN MARKET ANALYSIS
Overall, the composite score for the U.S. was Yellow 44, an increase from 38 the previous quarter.
The scores of the top 10 cities found most frequently in CMBS, based on dollar volume, are as follows, with the previous quarter's score in parenthesis: New York 54 (47), Los Angeles 48 (42), San Francisco 51 (46), Philadelphia 47 (41), Miami 35 (33), Houston 42 (39), Washington DC 51 (40), Atlanta 28 (24), Dallas 35 (29), and Chicago 40 (36).
The five best markets in the U.S. are: Honolulu 67 (59), Orange County CA 55 (46), New York 54 (47), San Jose CA 54 (47) Pittsburgh 53 (53).
The five worst markets in the U.S. are: Phoenix 26 (22), Detroit 26 (18), Wilmington 28 (40), Trenton 28 (33), Atlanta 28 (24).
The rating agency's report, "US CMBS: Red --Yellow -- Green™ Update, Fourth Quarter 2009 Quarterly Assessment of U.S. Property Markets" is available on the company's web site, OpenDNS.
Moody's: U.S. Commercial real estate markets continue improvement
New York, April 13, 2010 -- Commercial real estate markets across the U.S. continued to show signs of improvement, according to Moody's Investors Service Red-Yellow-Green® study for first quarter 2010, which incorporates 12-month forecasts. The supply pipeline of new properties continued to shrink across almost all sectors while projected demand improved.
"This quarter's numbers maintained the positive theme that began last quarter," says Moody's Vice President-Senior Analyst Keith Banhazl. "While vacancy rates remain high, generally due to the poor absorption experienced in 2009, projections show a slowdown in negative absorption over the next year."
All but the two hotel sectors showed better market conditions and had higher Red-Yellow-Green® scores than they did in the previous quarter. Although the largest share of markets--43%-- remain in red territory, the proportion is an improvement from the final quarter of 2009 when a majority of the markets—51%--were in red territory, according to Red-Yellow-Green®. The share of markets that are green increased from 13% to 17% and that are yellow from 36% to 41%.
Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new 2010 first quarter study reflects data from the fourth quarter of 2009.
SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS
The multifamily sector rose slightly higher into green territory, increasing from 77 to 81. The gap between supply and demand narrowed slightly, from 0.8% to 0.7% during the quarter.
The retail sector rose from Yellow 50 to Yellow 56. Improvements in supply and demand outweighed a rise in the vacancy rate, from 12.2% to 12.4%. During the quarter the supply-demand imbalance shrank from -0.7% to -0.3%, helping the markets.
The score for offices in central business districts (CBDs) jumped seven points to Yellow 52. As in retail, an improvement in supply and demand, the imbalance shrinking from -2.6% to -1.4%, outweighed an increase in vacancies, which rose from 12.0% to 12.5%.
Suburban offices leaped into yellow territory, rising seven points from Red 28 to Yellow 35. Improvement in the supply-and-demand imbalance, which narrowed from -2.2% to -1.2%, propelled the rise.
The industrial sector also left red territory, increasing from Red 30 to Yellow 41. The composite vacancy rate remains high, however, and increased to 13.9% from 13.5%. Positive projected absorption and less in the production pipeline led to the Yellow score.
Both of the two hotel sectors, full-service and limited-service, remained at Red 0. Both, however, also saw an improvement in most metrics. In the full-service hotel sector, year-over-year RevPAR declined significantly to 11.7% from 19.9% the previous quarter. The limited service hotel sector saw year-over-year RevPAR decline to 13.9% from the previous quarter's 19.8%.
METROPOLITAN MARKET ANALYSIS
Overall, the composite score for the U.S. was Yellow 44, an increase from 38 the previous quarter.
The scores of the top 10 cities found most frequently in CMBS, based on dollar volume, are as follows, with the previous quarter's score in parenthesis: New York 54 (47), Los Angeles 48 (42), San Francisco 51 (46), Philadelphia 47 (41), Miami 35 (33), Houston 42 (39), Washington DC 51 (40), Atlanta 28 (24), Dallas 35 (29), and Chicago 40 (36).
The five best markets in the U.S. are: Honolulu 67 (59), Orange County CA 55 (46), New York 54 (47), San Jose CA 54 (47) Pittsburgh 53 (53).
The five worst markets in the U.S. are: Phoenix 26 (22), Detroit 26 (18), Wilmington 28 (40), Trenton 28 (33), Atlanta 28 (24).
The rating agency's report, "US CMBS: Red --Yellow -- Green™ Update, Fourth Quarter 2009 Quarterly Assessment of U.S. Property Markets" is available on the company's web site, OpenDNS.
Imark
Forumer storico
Ad ogni buon conto, il miglioramento dei comparti del CRE USA, ancora nelle prime fasi, resta insufficiente per il momento a ridurre il livello di delinquencies sulle CMBS (commercial mortgage backed securities) che anzi continuano a salire, seppure con minore progressione rispetto al passato... per alcuni sottocomparti del CRE, il picco di ciclo delle CMBS delinquencies dovrebbe essere raggiunto nel 2010 (per il multifamily e gli hotel) mentre per altri (uffici e retail) sono previsti da Moody's ancora molti trimestri di deterioramento delle performance per i CMBS...
Moody's: US CMBS loan delinquencies jump to 6.42%
New York, April 14, 2010 -- The delinquency rate on loans included in US Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) increased 69 basis points in March—the largest increase on record—to 6.42%, according to Moody's Investors Service's Delinquency Tracker. However, 45 basis points of the increase was entirely due to a single loan moving into delinquency -- the $3 billion loan on Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town in New York City.
The overall balance of delinquent loans increased by $4.3 billion in March, with 343 loans becoming delinquent.
"Excluding the outsized impact of the Peter Cooper/Stuyvesant Town loan, the pace of the increase in delinquencies for multifamily and hotel loans has moderated over the past several months. The delinquency rate for properties with longer lease terms, on the other hand, such as office and retail, has continued to accelerate over the same period," said Managing Director Nick Levidy. "We expect this trend to continue, with the performance of multifamily and hotel properties bottoming out this year and that of office and retail continuing to deteriorate for several more quarters."
Moody's Delinquency Tracker (DQT), tracks all loans in US conduit and fusion deals issued in 1998 or later with a current balance greater than zero.
The addition of the Peter Cooper Village caused the multifamily loan delinquency rate to leap 283 basis points during March to 12.19%, making it now the worst-performing sector. The total number of delinquent multifamily loans, however, increased by just eight during the month.
The four other property types also saw delinquency rates rise, but much less dramatically. The rates rose: for retail, 35 basis points to stand at 5.57%; for office properties, 14 basis points to 4.12%; for hotels, 63 basis points to 11.27%; and for industrial, 30 basis points to 4.57%.
The East continues to be the best-performing region despite the addition of the loan backed by Peter Cooper Village to the delinquent balance. This loan helped push the rate for the East up 154 basis points to 5.14%. By comparison, delinquencies rose 26 basis points in the South, to 8.45%, 29 basis points in the West, to 6.61%, and 32 basis points in the Midwest, to 6.94%.
The Delinquency Tracker is part of a suite of commercial real estate metrics that includes Moody's REAL/Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) and Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® Report. It tracks CMBS loan performance (including loans in deals not rated by Moody's) in detail by vintage, region and property type, and it extrapolates forward-looking analysis from these results.
The report "US CMBS: Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker, March 2010," is available on Moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at Moodys.com.
Moody's: US CMBS loan delinquencies jump to 6.42%
New York, April 14, 2010 -- The delinquency rate on loans included in US Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) increased 69 basis points in March—the largest increase on record—to 6.42%, according to Moody's Investors Service's Delinquency Tracker. However, 45 basis points of the increase was entirely due to a single loan moving into delinquency -- the $3 billion loan on Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town in New York City.
The overall balance of delinquent loans increased by $4.3 billion in March, with 343 loans becoming delinquent.
"Excluding the outsized impact of the Peter Cooper/Stuyvesant Town loan, the pace of the increase in delinquencies for multifamily and hotel loans has moderated over the past several months. The delinquency rate for properties with longer lease terms, on the other hand, such as office and retail, has continued to accelerate over the same period," said Managing Director Nick Levidy. "We expect this trend to continue, with the performance of multifamily and hotel properties bottoming out this year and that of office and retail continuing to deteriorate for several more quarters."
Moody's Delinquency Tracker (DQT), tracks all loans in US conduit and fusion deals issued in 1998 or later with a current balance greater than zero.
The addition of the Peter Cooper Village caused the multifamily loan delinquency rate to leap 283 basis points during March to 12.19%, making it now the worst-performing sector. The total number of delinquent multifamily loans, however, increased by just eight during the month.
The four other property types also saw delinquency rates rise, but much less dramatically. The rates rose: for retail, 35 basis points to stand at 5.57%; for office properties, 14 basis points to 4.12%; for hotels, 63 basis points to 11.27%; and for industrial, 30 basis points to 4.57%.
The East continues to be the best-performing region despite the addition of the loan backed by Peter Cooper Village to the delinquent balance. This loan helped push the rate for the East up 154 basis points to 5.14%. By comparison, delinquencies rose 26 basis points in the South, to 8.45%, 29 basis points in the West, to 6.61%, and 32 basis points in the Midwest, to 6.94%.
The Delinquency Tracker is part of a suite of commercial real estate metrics that includes Moody's REAL/Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) and Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® Report. It tracks CMBS loan performance (including loans in deals not rated by Moody's) in detail by vintage, region and property type, and it extrapolates forward-looking analysis from these results.
The report "US CMBS: Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker, March 2010," is available on Moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at Moodys.com.
Imark
Forumer storico
Ed anche i prezzi a febbraio sono tornati a scendere, dopo l'incremento verificatosi a partire dall'autunno che ne aveva invertito temporaneamente il declino dal picco di ciclo dell'ottobre 2007. Peraltro i volumi restano piuttosto deboli ed il livello di compravendite considerate distressed a livello di prezzi è ancora in robusta ascesa.
Con l'ultimo dato siamo sotto del 41,8% rispetto ai massimi, in leggera risalita comunque rispetto ai minimi di ottobre 2009 (-44%).
Moody's: US commercial real estate prices decline 2.6% in February with continued low volume
New York, April 19, 2010 -- US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) declined by 2.6% in February, the first month to month decline in four months.
Nationwide, prices are now down 41.8% from their peak measured in October 2007 and have now come back 3.4% from their October 2009 low.
"From November to January, commercial real estate prices increased by an aggregate 6.3%," said Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "As noted in our previous reports, however, we did not feel that these increases were sustainable in the short term, particularly given current low transaction volumes. With continued low volume in February and a larger proportion of repeat-sales sales considered distressed, it is unsurprising that prices have once again headed lower."
Transaction volume declined in February from January by about 10% as measured by dollars and by nearly 30% by count. Sixty-six repeat-sales totaling roughly $540 million were used in the calculation of the CPPI.
The proportion of all repeat-sales which have been classified as distressed increased from 4% in 2008 to nearly 20% for calendar 2009, and has continued to climb in the first two months of 2010, nearly reaching 25% in January, and just under 32% in February.
The CPPI
Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Indices are based on the repeat sales of the same properties across the US at different points in time. Applying price changes measured in this way provides maximum transparency and methodological rigor. This approach also circumvents the distortions that can occur with other commercial property value measurements such as appraisals or average prices, says Moody's.
Con l'ultimo dato siamo sotto del 41,8% rispetto ai massimi, in leggera risalita comunque rispetto ai minimi di ottobre 2009 (-44%).
Moody's: US commercial real estate prices decline 2.6% in February with continued low volume
New York, April 19, 2010 -- US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) declined by 2.6% in February, the first month to month decline in four months.
Nationwide, prices are now down 41.8% from their peak measured in October 2007 and have now come back 3.4% from their October 2009 low.
"From November to January, commercial real estate prices increased by an aggregate 6.3%," said Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "As noted in our previous reports, however, we did not feel that these increases were sustainable in the short term, particularly given current low transaction volumes. With continued low volume in February and a larger proportion of repeat-sales sales considered distressed, it is unsurprising that prices have once again headed lower."
Transaction volume declined in February from January by about 10% as measured by dollars and by nearly 30% by count. Sixty-six repeat-sales totaling roughly $540 million were used in the calculation of the CPPI.
The proportion of all repeat-sales which have been classified as distressed increased from 4% in 2008 to nearly 20% for calendar 2009, and has continued to climb in the first two months of 2010, nearly reaching 25% in January, and just under 32% in February.
The CPPI
Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Indices are based on the repeat sales of the same properties across the US at different points in time. Applying price changes measured in this way provides maximum transparency and methodological rigor. This approach also circumvents the distortions that can occur with other commercial property value measurements such as appraisals or average prices, says Moody's.
Imark
Forumer storico
Ad ogni buon conto, il miglioramento dei comparti del CRE USA, ancora nelle prime fasi, resta insufficiente per il momento a ridurre il livello di delinquencies sulle CMBS (commercial mortgage backed securities) che anzi continuano a salire, seppure con minore progressione rispetto al passato... per alcuni sottocomparti del CRE, il picco di ciclo delle CMBS delinquencies dovrebbe essere raggiunto nel 2010 (per il multifamily e gli hotel) mentre per altri (uffici e retail) sono previsti da Moody's ancora molti trimestri di deterioramento delle performance per i CMBS...
Moody's: US CMBS loan delinquencies jump to 6.42%
.
Si sale ancora... siamo sopra il 7%
Moody's: US CMBS loan delinquencies climb to 7.02%
New York, May 12, 2010 -- The delinquency rate on loans included in US Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) increased 60 basis points in April to 7.02%, according to Moody's Investors Service's Delinquency Tracker (DQT). The April increase was the second biggest jump in the history of the DQT, only nine basis points short of the record 69 basis point increase in March.
April saw a net increase of nearly $3.7 billion to the balance of delinquent loans, says Moody's. During the month, 415 loans totaling $5.9 billion moved into delinquency, while 230 loans became current or worked out, reducing the delinquent balance by about $2.3 billion.
Moody's Delinquency Tracker (DQT) tracks all loans in US conduit and fusion deals issued in 1998 or later with a current balance greater than zero.
By property type, the hotel sector regained the dubious distinction of having the highest delinquency rate, rising 171 basis points to 12.98%.
The March leader, multifamily, rose 68 basis points during April to 12.87%.
The office sector continued to have the lowest delinquency rate, after a 46 basis point rise during the month to 4.58%.
The industrial sector saw delinquencies increase by 67 basis points in April to 5.24%, while the rate for retail increased 29 basis points to 5.86% during the month.
By region, the West saw the steepest climb in its rate of delinquencies, which rose 115 basis points in April to 7.76%. The West now has a higher delinquency rate than the Midwest, which finished April at 7.49% after a 55 basis point increase.
At 8.76%, the South continues to have the highest rate. Its increase in April, however, was the smallest of any region, at only 31 basis points.
The East saw delinquencies increase by 48 basis points in April, to 5.62%, the lowest among the four regions.
By state, Nevada saw its rate soar after two loans backed by exhibit halls in Las Vegas moved into foreclosure. It now has a 20.02% delinquency rate after a 607 basis point increase, which exceeds the rate for any other state by more than 500 basis points.
Imark
Forumer storico
Ed anche i prezzi a febbraio sono tornati a scendere, dopo l'incremento verificatosi a partire dall'autunno che ne aveva invertito temporaneamente il declino dal picco di ciclo dell'ottobre 2007. Peraltro i volumi restano piuttosto deboli ed il livello di compravendite considerate distressed a livello di prezzi è ancora in robusta ascesa.
Con l'ultimo dato siamo sotto del 41,8% rispetto ai massimi, in leggera risalita comunque rispetto ai minimi di ottobre 2009 (-44%).
Moody's: US commercial real estate prices decline 2.6% in February with continued low volume
....
Ed anche a marzo si cala, seppure con minore intensità che a febbraio: -0,5%. Vanno abbastanza bene gli appartamenti, con i prezzi in salita robusta (in USA, l'affitto di un appartamento è la classica soluzione abitatitiva di ripiego per chi non può acquistare/affittare un'abitazione unifamiliare), benino i prezzi della proprietà industriale, male gli uffici e l'immobiliare commerciale retail...
Moody's: US Commercial Real Estate Prices Slip 0.5% in March
New York, May 19, 2010 -- US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) declined 0.5% in March, the second month of falling values after a slight rebound in prices earlier in the year.
"Commercial property prices have been hovering in a range 40% to 44% below peak levels for the past eight months," said Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "Prices are now 2.9% above the recession low recorded in October 2009 and at the level they were seven months ago in September."
Specifically, as of the end of March, prices are down 24.9% from a year ago and 40.5% from two years ago. They are now 42.1% below the peak values they reached in October 2007.
Moody's also notes that the repeat-sales transaction volume on which the CPPI is based spiked in March after dipping to very low levels in February. The number of repeat-sales transactions nearly doubled, while the dollar volume of sales more than tripled. The monthly index for March is based on 127 repeat-sales observations totaling nearly $1.7 billion.
The national property type indices, which are quarterly, had a mixed start in 2010. Two of the four major property types recorded small price gains in the first quarter and two showed declines. On the gain side were apartments, which rose 3.3% in the quarter, and industrial properties, which rose 0.8%. Offices saw a 3.2% decline in prices and retail properties dropped 4.7%.
In the top-ten MSAs, which typically account for 50% to 80% of the transactions in the national property type indices, apartment prices rose 4.1% in the first quarter and industrial prices rose 4.8%. Retail in the top ten saw prices fall 19.3%, while offices fell a less dramatic 7.2%.
Looking at the quarterly report for the western region, Moody's observes three of the four property types experienced virtually no price movement over the last three months. The exception was retail, which declined nearly 10%.
The CPPI
Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Indices are based on the repeat sales of the same properties across the US at different points in time. Applying price changes measured in this way provides maximum transparency and methodological rigor. This approach also circumvents the distortions that can occur with other commercial property value measurements such as appraisals or average prices, says Moody's.
The report, "Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices, May 2010," is available on the company's website, OpenDNS. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies in "Structured Finance Quick Check" at Moodys.com.
Imark
Forumer storico
Sul delisting dal NYSE di Fannie e Freddie... dal NYT online
Reuters Breakingviews
Fannie and Freddie Falling Off the Big Board
By RICHARD BEALES and ROBERT CYRAN
Published: June 16, 2010
The mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are at last slipping into a form of obscurity. The companies will delist from the New York Stock Exchange under order of their federal watchdog. When they start trading in the penny stock market, investor attitudes may change — but the government fiction that the two are private companies almost certainly won’t.
The ostensible rationale for the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s directive to move them off the big markets is that Fannie’s stock lately has averaged less than the $1 minimum price required by the N.Y.S.E., while Freddie’s has fallen close to that level. With no obvious argument to reset their share prices, a delisting was inevitable.
More significant, the two companies cannot continue pretending to act in the interests of public shareholders while behaving as arms of the government. Fannie and Freddie are propping up the residential housing market. They end up holding or guaranteeing almost all new mortgages, and their regulator wants them to back more home lending to people who, with the best will in the world, can scarcely afford the payments.
Disappearing from the Big Board will make Fannie and Freddie less noticeable, though they will continue to file reports with regulators. The ranks of shareholders, who seem to have clung to some kind of option value by keeping the companies’ market capitalizations not far off $1 billion each, will no doubt be further reduced to those who can tolerate illiquid over-the-counter trading. But what perhaps really should happen — a purchase of the shares by the government — won’t.
That is because separate ownership is critical to the concept of keeping the debt and guarantee obligations of the two behemoths — more than $5 trillion combined — off the government’s books. The Treasury has agreed to pour money into Fannie and Freddie — about $140 billion so far, but with no limit — to keep their net worth above zero. That is in substance a full guarantee, but not one the government recognizes.
Leaving the two companies’ stocks trading on the equivalent of the pink sheets will help spare the government’s blushes for a while longer.
Reuters Breakingviews
Fannie and Freddie Falling Off the Big Board
By RICHARD BEALES and ROBERT CYRAN
Published: June 16, 2010
The mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are at last slipping into a form of obscurity. The companies will delist from the New York Stock Exchange under order of their federal watchdog. When they start trading in the penny stock market, investor attitudes may change — but the government fiction that the two are private companies almost certainly won’t.
The ostensible rationale for the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s directive to move them off the big markets is that Fannie’s stock lately has averaged less than the $1 minimum price required by the N.Y.S.E., while Freddie’s has fallen close to that level. With no obvious argument to reset their share prices, a delisting was inevitable.
More significant, the two companies cannot continue pretending to act in the interests of public shareholders while behaving as arms of the government. Fannie and Freddie are propping up the residential housing market. They end up holding or guaranteeing almost all new mortgages, and their regulator wants them to back more home lending to people who, with the best will in the world, can scarcely afford the payments.
Disappearing from the Big Board will make Fannie and Freddie less noticeable, though they will continue to file reports with regulators. The ranks of shareholders, who seem to have clung to some kind of option value by keeping the companies’ market capitalizations not far off $1 billion each, will no doubt be further reduced to those who can tolerate illiquid over-the-counter trading. But what perhaps really should happen — a purchase of the shares by the government — won’t.
That is because separate ownership is critical to the concept of keeping the debt and guarantee obligations of the two behemoths — more than $5 trillion combined — off the government’s books. The Treasury has agreed to pour money into Fannie and Freddie — about $140 billion so far, but with no limit — to keep their net worth above zero. That is in substance a full guarantee, but not one the government recognizes.
Leaving the two companies’ stocks trading on the equivalent of the pink sheets will help spare the government’s blushes for a while longer.
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