Ancora in miglioramento la situazione del CRE USA rispetto al trimestre precedente...
Moody's: U.S. Commercial real estate markets continue improvement
New York, April 13, 2010 -- Commercial real estate markets across the U.S. continued to show signs of improvement, according to Moody's Investors Service Red-Yellow-Green® study for first quarter 2010, which incorporates 12-month forecasts. The supply pipeline of new properties continued to shrink across almost all sectors while projected demand improved.
"This quarter's numbers maintained the positive theme that began last quarter," says Moody's Vice President-Senior Analyst Keith Banhazl. "While vacancy rates remain high, generally due to the poor absorption experienced in 2009, projections show a slowdown in negative absorption over the next year."
All but the two hotel sectors showed better market conditions and had higher Red-Yellow-Green® scores than they did in the previous quarter. Although the largest share of markets--43%-- remain in red territory, the proportion is an improvement from the final quarter of 2009 when a majority of the markets—51%--were in red territory, according to Red-Yellow-Green®. The share of markets that are green increased from 13% to 17% and that are yellow from 36% to 41%.
Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new 2010 first quarter study reflects data from the fourth quarter of 2009.
SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS
The multifamily sector rose slightly higher into green territory, increasing from 77 to 81. The gap between supply and demand narrowed slightly, from 0.8% to 0.7% during the quarter.
The retail sector rose from Yellow 50 to Yellow 56. Improvements in supply and demand outweighed a rise in the vacancy rate, from 12.2% to 12.4%. During the quarter the supply-demand imbalance shrank from -0.7% to -0.3%, helping the markets.
The score for offices in central business districts (CBDs) jumped seven points to Yellow 52. As in retail, an improvement in supply and demand, the imbalance shrinking from -2.6% to -1.4%, outweighed an increase in vacancies, which rose from 12.0% to 12.5%.
Suburban offices leaped into yellow territory, rising seven points from Red 28 to Yellow 35. Improvement in the supply-and-demand imbalance, which narrowed from -2.2% to -1.2%, propelled the rise.
The industrial sector also left red territory, increasing from Red 30 to Yellow 41. The composite vacancy rate remains high, however, and increased to 13.9% from 13.5%. Positive projected absorption and less in the production pipeline led to the Yellow score.
Both of the two hotel sectors, full-service and limited-service, remained at Red 0. Both, however, also saw an improvement in most metrics. In the full-service hotel sector, year-over-year RevPAR declined significantly to 11.7% from 19.9% the previous quarter. The limited service hotel sector saw year-over-year RevPAR decline to 13.9% from the previous quarter's 19.8%.
METROPOLITAN MARKET ANALYSIS
Overall, the composite score for the U.S. was Yellow 44, an increase from 38 the previous quarter.
The scores of the top 10 cities found most frequently in CMBS, based on dollar volume, are as follows, with the previous quarter's score in parenthesis: New York 54 (47), Los Angeles 48 (42), San Francisco 51 (46), Philadelphia 47 (41), Miami 35 (33), Houston 42 (39), Washington DC 51 (40), Atlanta 28 (24), Dallas 35 (29), and Chicago 40 (36).
The five best markets in the U.S. are: Honolulu 67 (59), Orange County CA 55 (46), New York 54 (47), San Jose CA 54 (47) Pittsburgh 53 (53).
The five worst markets in the U.S. are: Phoenix 26 (22), Detroit 26 (18), Wilmington 28 (40), Trenton 28 (33), Atlanta 28 (24).
The rating agency's report, "US CMBS: Red --Yellow -- Green™ Update, Fourth Quarter 2009 Quarterly Assessment of U.S. Property Markets" is available on the company's web site,
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