ETF Ishares Msci Turkey (1 Viewer)

[IlPorcospino]

Turkish Shares Fall on Goldman Cut, Japan Nuclear Meltdown
By Aydan Eksin - Mar 29, 2011
Turkish stocks fell after Goldman Sachs cut estimates for the country’s banks and as concern persisted about a partial meltdown at a nuclear plant in Japan.

The main ISE National 100 index (XU100) dropped 506.95, or 0.8 percent, to 63,754.38 at 11:37 a.m. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (GARAN) led losses, sliding 1.6 percent to 7.34 liras.
Goldman lowered price estimates for the six Turkish banks it covers saying an increase in reserve requirements by the central bank will hurt profit, according to an e-mailed report today. Garanti was cut to “sell” from “neutral” and Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO (VAKBN) was reduced to “neutral” from “buy,” Goldman said. Investors should buy banks outside of Turkey including OAO Sberbank of Russia (SBER), it said.
“Earnings will come under further pressure following a substantial increase in reserve requirement ratios,” Goldman said.
Last week the central bank increased the reserves banks need to set aside for the third time since the start of December, raising the ratio to as much as 15 percent for deposits of one month or less from 10 percent. The measures are needed to curb lending and ensure financial stability, the bank said on March 23.
Goldman has cut earnings estimates for Turkish banks by an average of 6 percent between 2011 and 2013, the report said. Turkiye Is Bankasi (ISATR) AS’s share price estimate was lowered to 5 liras from 5.5 liras and Akbank TAS (AKBNK), part-owned by Citigroup Inc., to 6 liras from 6.7 liras.
“We find more value outside Turkey, particularly in Sberbank, where improving earnings power is yet to be fully captured by valuation multiples,” Goldman said.
Akbank TAS lost 1.3 percent to 7.42 liras. Vakiflar decreased 1 percent to 3.80 liras. Sberbank gained 0.3 percent to 3.75 liras in Moscow.

Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan said for the first time that a damaged nuclear plant’s tsunami defenses were inadequate, while reassuring the public that radiation leaks pose no health threat beyond an evacuation zone.

The lira was little changed at 1.56130 per dollar. Yields on benchmark two-year bonds were unchanged at 9 percent.

 

[IlPorcospino]

The yield on Turkey’s two-year debt slid 24 basis points to 8.77 percent, the biggest decrease since Jan. 4, according to the RBS Istanbul Benchmark Bond Index. The ISE National 100 Index of equities rose 2.8 percent, helped by a 4.2 percent rally by Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS, the country’s biggest lender by market value.
Inflation in Turkey slowed to 4 percent in March from 4.2 percent the previous month, less than the 4.4 percent median estimate of seven economists surveyed by Bloomberg. None forecast a slowdown.

 

[ibbius]

Recuperato il 6% in due giorni.
Non so bene che succede ma spero che continui a lungo.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Recuperato il 6% in due giorni.
Non so bene che succede ma spero che continui a lungo.

Amico mio, come non sai che succede? L'indice della borsa di Istambul è tornato ai valori di gennaio. Ora toccherebbe al try ritornare ai valori di cambio intorno a 2,05, invece che 2,175, come è ora. Se così fosse tornerei in verde riguadagnando il 4-5% che mi manca.
Se l'inflazione e il deficit della bilancia con l'estero continuassero a migliorare, e se gli invetimenti esteri cresceranno come stanno crescendo con l'acquisto di bond governativi turchi, il try si rafforzerà.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Turkish Stocks, Bonds Climb on Cash Flows After Bernanke Speech
By Selcuk Gokoluk - Apr 5, 2011
Turkish stocks and bonds rallied after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments that slower commodity price growth would make increases in inflation “transitory.”
The ISE National 100 Index (XU100) rose for a third day, adding 1 percent to 68,227.88 at 2:49 p.m., its highest intraday level since Jan. 14. Two-year benchmark debt climbed, sending the yield down 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 8.71 percent, the lowest level in two weeks.
Bernanke’s comments yesterday that inflation spikes would be temporary “diluted the apparent hawkishness of his remarks,” according to a research note from Gareth Berry, a strategist with UBS AG dated today. Turkey central bank data showed on March 31 that foreigners raised holdings of Turkish bonds by $3.7 billion and stocks by $3.9 billion in the month.
“The market gained momentum yesterday,” said Soner Inanc, head of Turkish equities at City Menkul Degerler AS. “Bernanke’s statements affected this positively because it showed cheap money will continue.”
The Fed will act if increases in commodity prices create more than a “transitory” boost to U.S. inflation, Bernanke said in response to audience questions after a speech in Stone Mountain, Georgia. U.S. policy makers led by Bernanke said after their last meeting on March 15 that the economy is on a “firmer footing” and affirmed plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June. Bernanke hasn’t said what he favors as the next move for monetary policy after that.
“The markets got the message from Bernanke that the liquidity will remain abundant,” said Selim Kocaoglu, assistant manager at Is Asset Management.

The lira weakened 0.1 percent to 1.53325 per dollar.

 

[IlPorcospino]

I problemi con il deficit delle partite correnti non sono risolti

IMF Forecasts 8 Percent Turkish Current-Account Gap This Year
By Steve Bryant - Apr 11, 2011.

Turkey’s current-account deficit may widen to 8 percent of gross domestic product this year as “still accommodative” monetary policy fuels a domestic boom and draws in imports, the International Monetary Fund said.
The deficit will expand from 6.5 percent of GDP in 2010, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook published today. The Washington-based lender expects a gap of 8.2 percent in 2012. In October, the fund predicted a 2011 gap of 5.4 percent of GDP.
The Turkish central bank says limiting the current-account deficit is its main policy goal. It has raised reserve requirements for banks in a bid to curb credit growth at the same time as cutting the benchmark interest rate to deter inflows of short-term investment.
“The rapid recovery is projected to continue in Turkey,” the IMF said. “Demand and buoyant credit growth are lifting economic activity above its potential level amid still- accommodative macroeconomic policies.”
The current-account deficit more than doubled in February from a year earlier, widening to $6.1 billion, the central bank in Ankara said on its website today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of nine economists was for a gap of $6.3 billion.
The cumulative deficit for the 12 months through February was $54.8 billion, or about 7 percent of estimated gross domestic product. The government’s medium-term plans forecast a gap of $42.2 billion, or 5.4 percent of GDP.

Rate Cuts
Restraining the current-account gap is the bank’s top policy priority, Erdem Basci, a deputy governor of the central bank, said in Prague on March 29. The bank has cut interest rates by 75 basis points since December to help slow capital inflows, while increasing reserve requirements to cap growth in loans. It forecasts those increases will take effect from the second quarter of the year.
GDP growth will be 4.6 percent this year, the fund said, faster than the 3.6 percent it forecast in October last year. Growth in 2012 will be 4.5 percent.
Inflation will average 5.7 percent this year and accelerate to 6 percent next year, the IMF said.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Analisi tecnica da Analisi ETF ETF World

Se si verificasse, potrei attuare il mio piano di vendita del 50% dell'asset nel Q2 (sempre cambio permettendo). Ora siamo a circa 83400. Speriamo.

Analisi tecnica.: L’indice ISE National 30 raggruppa le trenta maggiori compagnie quotate sulla Borsa di Instanbul. L’indice a medio termine presenta una tendenza rialzista, tuttavia la correzione ribassista iniziata in seguito al raggiungimento di un nuovo massimo storico a 91250 punti, raggiunto nel mese di novembre del 2010, si e’ rivelata essere particolarmente profonda e potrebbe dunque rimettere in questione la dinamica di fondo Allo stesso modo l’abbassamento della media mobile a 200 giorni che sosteneva i corsi precedentemente, spinge a mantenere una certa prudenza circa la configurazione grafica dell’indice.
Previsioni
Recentemente , la caduta dei corsi e’ stata fermata a contatto del supporto posto a 70920 punti dopo avere effettuato due onde al ribasso di uguale ampiezza (frecce viola). Si e’ formato un V-Bottom, che giustifica un inversione di tendenza a breve termine.
La forte reazione che ne è seguita ha permesso il raggiungimento del livello maggiore posto a 74357 punti e l’indice consolida ormai al di sotto del livello di sostegno posto a 76726 punti ed ha formato una bandiera. Lo sviluppo di questa figura di continuazione dovrebbe dare luogo a un vigoroso impulso rialzista. Siamo positivi a breve termine e vediamo un rally dell’indice fino alla resistenza posta a 85980 punti (target teorico della bandiera), con un obiettivo intermedio di 82 896 punti.
Collochiamo il valore che negherebbe questa nostra visione positiva leggermente al di sotto del supporto posto a 76726 punti.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Un colpo al cerchio e uno alla botte

La nomina del nuovo governatore della banca centrale turca fa presagire una continuità nella politica monetaria della banca; pertanto ci si può aspettare che l'indice azionario cresca (bene!) e che la lira turca si indebolisca (male!).

Turkey Names Basci, Architect of Cheap-Money Policy, to Run Central Bank
By Ali Berat Meric and Steve Bryant - Apr 15, 2011
Turkey may stick to its policy of matching low interest rates with higher bank reserve requirements after Erdem Basci, an architect of the strategy, was named central bank governor.
The main ISE 100 share index in Istanbul advanced and bond yields fell after the appointment of the 44-year-old economist, a school friend of Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, the country’s top economic policy maker. The decision was forecast by 14 of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month.
Basci’s appointment “implies policy continuity at the central bank and will be welcomed by market participants,” Ahmet Akarli, London-based economist for Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an e-mail. “Basci has played a key role in shaping the bank’s policies over the past few years, particularly during the global financial crisis.”
The central bank is trying to restrain a boom in domestic demand that’s drawing in imports and driving the current-account deficit to record levels. Basci wrote the paper published on the bank’s website on Dec. 11 that revealed the new policy of low rates and higher reserve requirements, surprising investors and prompting a decline in bonds as banks sold assets to meet the extra commitments.
The benchmark share index rose 0.6 percent to 68,369.88 at 10:15 a.m. in Istanbul and yields on two-year lira-denominated government debt fell 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 8.72 percent.

Current-Account Gap
Basci said in an interview in Prague on March 29 that the bank’s main goal is to rein in the current-account deficit. The cumulative gap for the 12 months through February was $54.8 billion, or about 7 percent of estimated gross domestic product, the bank said April 11. It was the largest 12-month deficit on record. The government’s medium-term plans forecast a gap of $42.2 billion, or 5.4 percent of GDP, this year.
The central bank reaffirmed its adherence to the policy in a March 23 statement, adding that new data or information may lead to revisions. Basci, who has worked at the bank since 2003, will chair his first monetary policy meeting on April 21.
“For markets, the combination of Basci and Babacan is something of a dream team,” Tim Ash, chief emerging-market economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Economic Boom
Babacan has been a key figure in Turkish economic policy since 2002, when the Justice and Development Party first took office. In that time GDP growth has averaged about 5 percent a year and income per head almost tripled to $10,043 in 2010, according to the Treasury.
Appointing Basci is “good for the predictability of the policy stance, good for accountability for prior actions,” Tevfik Aksoy, London-based head of emerging market economics for the region at Morgan Stanley, said in a telephone interview.
The bank has cut interest rates by 75 basis points to 6.25 percent since Basci’s paper was issued in December. Lower rates are designed to deter short-term capital inflows and weaken the lira, while increases in the reserve requirements cap growth in loans.
The International Monetary Fund said Turkish monetary policy is “still accommodative” and the current-account gap may expand to 8 percent of GDP this year, according to the World Economic Outlook published April 11.

Inflation Challenge
Basci will inherit an inflation rate of 4 percent, the lowest in four decades, and an economy that expanded 8.9 percent last year, a rate he called “very rapid.” Inflation is likely to accelerate for the rest of the year as higher global oil prices feed into the economy, the central bank forecast on April 5. The bank is aiming for year-end inflation of 5.5 percent.
Basci was Erdogan’s preferred candidate for central bank chief five years ago, ahead of outgoing Governor Durmus Yilmaz, though his nomination was rejected by then-President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, according to news reports at the time.

Basci’s wife, like Yilmaz, wears a headscarf in public, and upholders of Turkey’s secular constitution, such as Sezer, see such Islamic attire as a symbol of Erdogan’s efforts to allow a wider role for religion. Sezer also blocked the candidacy of Adnan Buyukdeniz, an Islamic banker. Abdullah Gul, a political ally of Erdogan, replaced Sezer as president in 2007.
Basci, who attended Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, was a student at a private high school in Ankara at the same time as Babacan, who is in charge of the Treasury and the government’s economic policy. Their families ran businesses in the Ulus suburb of the Turkish capital. Basci acted as Babacan’s adviser in 2003 before he was appointed to the bank. He served as acting governor for a month in 2006.

 

[IlPorcospino]

L'eurtry oscilla tra 2.14 e 2.24 intorno a 2.19.

Se la banca centrale diminuisce ulteriormente i tassi, potremmo vedere una traslazione verso l'alto (non me lo auguro, naturalmente).

 

[IlPorcospino]

Una considerazione personale

Allo stato attuale del cambio (2,1846), per andare io in pareggio, l'indice ISE 100 deve raggiungere il valore 72.180 (+ 5,52%) mai verificatosi nel 2011; il max nel 2010 è stato 71.543.
Ne consegue che, se non si schioda l'euro, è difficile raggiungere il pareggio.

L'euro è alto perchè la germania è competitiva anche a questo livello di cambio, perchè l'euro alto fa pesare meno l'aumento delle materie prime e perchè la banca centrale alza i tassi per combattere l'inflazione.
Il try è basso a causa della politica della banca centrale turca di diminuzione dei tassi per combattere il deficit della partita con l'estero e perchè vuole mantenere alta la competitività delle esportazioni.
Ci sono elementi che possono far pensare a un cambio di rotta?
Le commodotities diminuiranno?
L'inflazione rientrerà?
Non penso.
Dunque, attuare il piano di alleggerimento.