ETF Ishares Msci Turkey
- Creatore Discussione ibbius
- Data di Inizio
IlPorcospino
Forumer storico
Turkish stocks fell for the first day in five as escalating tensions in Libya sent construction companies and bank stocks lower.
The ISE National 100 Index of stocks fell 0.6 percent to 65,585.04 at 3:32 p.m. in Istanbul. The yield on two-year bonds rose 13 basis points to its highest in more than a week at 8.46 percent, according to the RBS Istanbul Benchmark Bond Index.
“Economic implications of the recent unrest in Libya and other Arab states are bad news for contractors operating in these high-risk countries,” Oyak Securities wrote in a note to clients today.
Turkish companies have $15.3 billion in Libyan contracts, Trade Minister Zafer Caglayan said at a news conference in Ankara today. Exports from Turkey to Libya have almost doubled in the last two years, the state-run news agency Anatolia said. Muammar Qaddafi’s son called on protesters in Libya to engage in dialogue or face a civil war, saying “rivers of blood will flow” with a widening revolt. Human Rights Watch puts the number dead at more than 200.
Tekfen Holding AS, which has construction projects in Libya, headed for the lowest in more than four months, falling 7.2 percent to 5.90 liras. Tekfen is suspending work on a Libyan project and the company’s main priority is now the safe evacuation of 1,197 non-Libyan employees, according to a statement to the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Akfen Holding AS, co- owner of TAV Havalimanlari Holding AS, which is building airports in Libya, fell 4.4 percent to 11 liras.
Tekfen has total northern Africa exposure in its “backlog” of projects at 42 percent, HSBC Holdings Plc wrote in a note to clients today.
Turkey’s currency weakened 0.3 percent to 1.5824 per dollar.
The ISE National 100 Index of stocks fell 0.6 percent to 65,585.04 at 3:32 p.m. in Istanbul. The yield on two-year bonds rose 13 basis points to its highest in more than a week at 8.46 percent, according to the RBS Istanbul Benchmark Bond Index.
“Economic implications of the recent unrest in Libya and other Arab states are bad news for contractors operating in these high-risk countries,” Oyak Securities wrote in a note to clients today.
Turkish companies have $15.3 billion in Libyan contracts, Trade Minister Zafer Caglayan said at a news conference in Ankara today. Exports from Turkey to Libya have almost doubled in the last two years, the state-run news agency Anatolia said. Muammar Qaddafi’s son called on protesters in Libya to engage in dialogue or face a civil war, saying “rivers of blood will flow” with a widening revolt. Human Rights Watch puts the number dead at more than 200.
Tekfen Holding AS, which has construction projects in Libya, headed for the lowest in more than four months, falling 7.2 percent to 5.90 liras. Tekfen is suspending work on a Libyan project and the company’s main priority is now the safe evacuation of 1,197 non-Libyan employees, according to a statement to the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Akfen Holding AS, co- owner of TAV Havalimanlari Holding AS, which is building airports in Libya, fell 4.4 percent to 11 liras.
Tekfen has total northern Africa exposure in its “backlog” of projects at 42 percent, HSBC Holdings Plc wrote in a note to clients today.
Turkey’s currency weakened 0.3 percent to 1.5824 per dollar.
IlPorcospino
Forumer storico
Turkey Stocks, Bonds Fall as Trade Gap Widens More Than Forecast
By Steve Bryant - Feb 28, 2011 5:36 PM GMT+0100 Tweet inShare.0More
Turkish stocks declined and yields rallied to an eight-month high after a January trade deficit that was almost double the market forecast for the gap drove concern inflation could accelerate.
The ISE National 100 Index of stocks reversed early gains and closed 0.1 percent lower at 61,282.87 at 5:30 p.m. in Istanbul. Bonds fell, sending the yield on two-year bonds 15 basis points higher to 8.78 percent, the highest since June 2010 according to the RBS Istanbul Benchmark Bond Index. The lira weakened 0.2 percent to 1.6014 per dollar.
The trade gap in January was $7.3 billion, 89 percent more than the same month in 2010 and bigger than the median estimate of $4.1 billion in a Bloomberg survey of six analysts. The gap suggests Central bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz’s efforts to restrain domestic demand aren’t yet working.
“So far the new policy seems ineffective,” Hakan Aklar, chief economist for AK Investment, said in an e-mailed report. “Moreover, rising energy prices are compounding the risks on the trade deficit and inflation.”
Surging oil prices driven by Middle East unrest have created a “brand new scenario” that’s likely to change Turkey’s inflation forecasts, Yilmaz said Feb. 25. He said the bank’s forecast of 5.9 percent year-end inflation is likely to be revised when the bank updates policy on April 28. Turkey imports about 93 percent of its oil.
Crude oil for April delivery declined 21 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $97.67 a barrel at 11:23 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The central bank’s inflation forecasts are based on oil at $95 a barrel.
By Steve Bryant - Feb 28, 2011 5:36 PM GMT+0100 Tweet inShare.0More
Turkish stocks declined and yields rallied to an eight-month high after a January trade deficit that was almost double the market forecast for the gap drove concern inflation could accelerate.
The ISE National 100 Index of stocks reversed early gains and closed 0.1 percent lower at 61,282.87 at 5:30 p.m. in Istanbul. Bonds fell, sending the yield on two-year bonds 15 basis points higher to 8.78 percent, the highest since June 2010 according to the RBS Istanbul Benchmark Bond Index. The lira weakened 0.2 percent to 1.6014 per dollar.
The trade gap in January was $7.3 billion, 89 percent more than the same month in 2010 and bigger than the median estimate of $4.1 billion in a Bloomberg survey of six analysts. The gap suggests Central bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz’s efforts to restrain domestic demand aren’t yet working.
“So far the new policy seems ineffective,” Hakan Aklar, chief economist for AK Investment, said in an e-mailed report. “Moreover, rising energy prices are compounding the risks on the trade deficit and inflation.”
Surging oil prices driven by Middle East unrest have created a “brand new scenario” that’s likely to change Turkey’s inflation forecasts, Yilmaz said Feb. 25. He said the bank’s forecast of 5.9 percent year-end inflation is likely to be revised when the bank updates policy on April 28. Turkey imports about 93 percent of its oil.
Crude oil for April delivery declined 21 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $97.67 a barrel at 11:23 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The central bank’s inflation forecasts are based on oil at $95 a barrel.
IlPorcospino
Forumer storico
Turkey Bonds Drop, Yields Surge to Eight-Month High on Strong Growth Data
By Steve Bryant - Mar 1, 2011 11:15 AM
Turkish bonds fell for a second day, sending yields to their highest in eight months as trade and manufacturing data suggest central bank efforts to curb economic growth are failing.
Yields on benchmark two-year lira bonds rose 8 basis points to 8.86 percent at 11:56 a.m. in Istanbul. That was the highest level since June 24. The lira weakened 0.5 percent to 1.6062 per dollar. The main ISE National 100 stock index gained 0.3 percent to 61,077.16.
Domestic demand in Turkey, which policy makers have tried to stem by increasing bank reserve requirements, drove the HSBC purchasing managers’ index, which measures manufacturing optimism, to 58.5 in February, the highest since the gauge began in 2005, Markit Economics said today. The January trade deficit widened to $7.3 billion, exceeding the $4.1 billion median analyst estimate, and according to estimates from institutions including the International Monetary fund, Turkey’s economy probably grew 8 percent in 2010.
“The trade deficit has ruined the market,” said Selim Gulkan, a fixed-income trader at Turk Ekonomi Bankasi AS in Istanbul. “The central bank’s main issue is reducing the current-account deficit and people are now pricing in more hawkish actions.”
In January, Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly lowered its benchmark interest rate to an all-time low in a strategy aimed at curbing inflows of so-called hot money and weakening the lira, making imported goods less attractive and exporters more competitive. Central bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz has said measures taken by the policy maker to curb lending and rein in demand will take effect in the first quarter of this year.
‘More Orthodox’
The central bank “may need to fall back on more orthodox policy responses” like raising interest rates, according to RBS analysts including Tim Ash in a note dated yesterday. The central bank’s “unorthodox measures” won’t be repeated, and the first rate increases may come “soon after the June parliamentary elections, if not sooner,” Ash said.
The current-account deficit was $7.5 billion in December, the biggest in a central bank data series that goes back to 1984. The government is aiming for a current-account gap of $42.2 billion, or 5.4 percent of estimated gross domestic product, this year.
By Steve Bryant - Mar 1, 2011 11:15 AM
Turkish bonds fell for a second day, sending yields to their highest in eight months as trade and manufacturing data suggest central bank efforts to curb economic growth are failing.
Yields on benchmark two-year lira bonds rose 8 basis points to 8.86 percent at 11:56 a.m. in Istanbul. That was the highest level since June 24. The lira weakened 0.5 percent to 1.6062 per dollar. The main ISE National 100 stock index gained 0.3 percent to 61,077.16.
Domestic demand in Turkey, which policy makers have tried to stem by increasing bank reserve requirements, drove the HSBC purchasing managers’ index, which measures manufacturing optimism, to 58.5 in February, the highest since the gauge began in 2005, Markit Economics said today. The January trade deficit widened to $7.3 billion, exceeding the $4.1 billion median analyst estimate, and according to estimates from institutions including the International Monetary fund, Turkey’s economy probably grew 8 percent in 2010.
“The trade deficit has ruined the market,” said Selim Gulkan, a fixed-income trader at Turk Ekonomi Bankasi AS in Istanbul. “The central bank’s main issue is reducing the current-account deficit and people are now pricing in more hawkish actions.”
In January, Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly lowered its benchmark interest rate to an all-time low in a strategy aimed at curbing inflows of so-called hot money and weakening the lira, making imported goods less attractive and exporters more competitive. Central bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz has said measures taken by the policy maker to curb lending and rein in demand will take effect in the first quarter of this year.
‘More Orthodox’
The central bank “may need to fall back on more orthodox policy responses” like raising interest rates, according to RBS analysts including Tim Ash in a note dated yesterday. The central bank’s “unorthodox measures” won’t be repeated, and the first rate increases may come “soon after the June parliamentary elections, if not sooner,” Ash said.
The current-account deficit was $7.5 billion in December, the biggest in a central bank data series that goes back to 1984. The government is aiming for a current-account gap of $42.2 billion, or 5.4 percent of estimated gross domestic product, this year.
IlPorcospino
Forumer storico
Mi hai letto nel pensiero, ma è molto doloroso. La caduta del try è preoccupante.
Se alzano i tassi, magari invertono il trend. Ma non lo fanno per non peggiorare la competitività. Il guaio è stato entrare in concomitanza con il cambio di politica della banca centrale turca. Non basta che un paese sia sano e che abbia un alto tasso di sviluppo, bisogna che le politiche delle istituzioni siano in continuità e non in discontinuità. Cioè, questo è quello che sto imparando. Per esempio, adesso non entrerei sulla Cina. Poi, c'è stata l'aggravante del paventato effetto domino dei paesi dell'africa settentrionale. Bisognerà che tutti questi elementi negativi vengano riassorbiti. Oppure, una politica progessiva di diminuzione dell'esposizione? Ma non vedo ora i termini perchè possa essere proficua. Tu che ne pensi?
L'eurtry può raggiungere e superare 2,3?
ibbius
Nuovo forumer
Mi chiedo quanto abbia pesato questa notizia.
L'Arabia Saudita manda i carri armati in Barhein?
L'Arabia Saudita manda i carri armati in Barhein?
IlPorcospino
Forumer storico
E' l'effetto combinato di indice ISE XU100 e di cambio eurtry.
Come vedi il valore in € di un ipotetico investimento di valore 100€ è passato da 100, a 87, a 80 per tornare a 88. Cioè, perdite del 13%, 20% e, ora, del 12%. Purtroppo l'effetto cambio si sta attenuando in queste ore; però l'indice ha mostrato una buona vitalità.
IlPorcospino
Forumer storico
Questo post di Giontra in un altro 3d merita di essere riportato:
La view di Fondionline
Turchia
Attualmente il tasso d'inflazione su base annua presenta una tendenza in forte calo, fatto questo che non è interpretabile però come un trend deflazionistico stabile. La dipendenza del Paese dalle materie prime e la domanda interna ancora molto dinamica rimangono fattori di rischio per la stabilità dei prezzi nel lungo periodo. La banca centrale a febbraio ha lasciato invariati i tassi di riferimento come ci si aspettava, dopo che nei mesi precedenti li aveva abbassati in due riprese. In questo modo la banca centrale vuole ridurre il capitale investito a breve termine nel sistema finanziario e attenuare gli squilibri negli scambi esteri grazie a una moneta più debole (il deficit delle partite correnti ha raggiunto attualmente il massimo storico in percentuale sul PIL). La lira turca è dall'inizio dell'anno la moneta più debole della regione. Dopo che a gennaio si è potuto osservare il forte aumento dei rendimenti per le obbligazioni turche in valuta locale, a febbraio i livelli dei rendimenti hanno subito nel complesso variazioni assai scarse. Nel caso dovessero confermarsi sui mercati mondiali i trend attuali nei prezzi del petrolio e degli alimentari, la prospettiva d'inflazione per la Turchia dovrebbe tornare rapidamente a peggiorare. A sua volta questo potrebbe richiedere rialzi dei tassi e quindi aprire anche un certo margine per un nuovo rafforzamento della moneta. Stando così le cose, nei prossimi mesi la banca centrale si troverà a fronteggiare decisioni complesse. Dopo un avvio favorevole alla fine del mese, a febbraio le quotazioni delle azioni alla borsa di Istanbul hanno ceduto abbondantemente, registrando a saldo un risultato lievemente negativo per il mese. Nel breve e medio periodo non si vedono attualmente possibili catalizzatori che possano far salire durevolmente le quotazioni, per cui presumiamo che per ora non ci saranno grossi rialzi dei listini.
La view di Fondionline
Turchia
Attualmente il tasso d'inflazione su base annua presenta una tendenza in forte calo, fatto questo che non è interpretabile però come un trend deflazionistico stabile. La dipendenza del Paese dalle materie prime e la domanda interna ancora molto dinamica rimangono fattori di rischio per la stabilità dei prezzi nel lungo periodo. La banca centrale a febbraio ha lasciato invariati i tassi di riferimento come ci si aspettava, dopo che nei mesi precedenti li aveva abbassati in due riprese. In questo modo la banca centrale vuole ridurre il capitale investito a breve termine nel sistema finanziario e attenuare gli squilibri negli scambi esteri grazie a una moneta più debole (il deficit delle partite correnti ha raggiunto attualmente il massimo storico in percentuale sul PIL). La lira turca è dall'inizio dell'anno la moneta più debole della regione. Dopo che a gennaio si è potuto osservare il forte aumento dei rendimenti per le obbligazioni turche in valuta locale, a febbraio i livelli dei rendimenti hanno subito nel complesso variazioni assai scarse. Nel caso dovessero confermarsi sui mercati mondiali i trend attuali nei prezzi del petrolio e degli alimentari, la prospettiva d'inflazione per la Turchia dovrebbe tornare rapidamente a peggiorare. A sua volta questo potrebbe richiedere rialzi dei tassi e quindi aprire anche un certo margine per un nuovo rafforzamento della moneta. Stando così le cose, nei prossimi mesi la banca centrale si troverà a fronteggiare decisioni complesse. Dopo un avvio favorevole alla fine del mese, a febbraio le quotazioni delle azioni alla borsa di Istanbul hanno ceduto abbondantemente, registrando a saldo un risultato lievemente negativo per il mese. Nel breve e medio periodo non si vedono attualmente possibili catalizzatori che possano far salire durevolmente le quotazioni, per cui presumiamo che per ora non ci saranno grossi rialzi dei listini.
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