...state a dar retta ai deliri di chi vede la corona tornare alla convertibilita' , ma nel mentre la realta' e' ben diversa ... ecco giusto un pezzo di Bloomberg per farvi tornare coi piedi per terra
Icelandic Debt Relief Saga Forces `New Ethics' on Government - Bloomberg
Iceland’s first female Prime Minister, Johanna Sigurdardottir, will present what may be the world’s biggest debt relief proposal next week, risking alienating the International Monetary Fund and bank creditors.
The 68-year-old is trying to prevent the 39 percent of households that are technically insolvent from losing their homes. She was forced to back down from proposals requiring lenders to forgive $2 billion in mortgage debt -- 15 percent of Iceland’s economic output -- after pension funds blocked them. Now she’s looking for other ways to help families reeling from last year’s 20 percent drop in incomes.
The premier “has taken over the task of literally resurrecting Iceland from the ruins of collapse,” she said in an e-mailed response to questions. “It’s demanded a new modus operandi -- new ethics.”
If she pulls off a resurrection, debt-ridden countries such as Greece and Portugal may look to the island for clues on how to rebuild their economies. If she fails, Iceland risks exacerbating unresolved creditor disputes that prevent it normalizing relations with the world or rebuilding international investor ties essential to growth.
“It will become unbearable for the government to hold on to power if it fails,” said Birgir Gudmundsson, a professor in political science at the University of Akureyri in Iceland’s north, in an interview.
Economic Wreckage
Iceland’s banking failure two years ago precipitated an economic meltdown that forced the resignation of former Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde. On Sept. 28, he became the world’s first political leader to be indicted for economic mismanagement since the credit crisis started.
The economy, the world’s fifth-richest per capita as recently as 2007, contracted 6.8 percent last year and shrank an annual 8.4 percent in the second quarter.
The IMF, which is leading the country’s $4.6 billion loan, estimates 63 percent of the island’s loans to households and businesses are non-performing. On Oct. 4, about 8,000 Icelanders took to the streets to voice their grievances in the island’s biggest protests since it was engulfed by the financial crisis.
The government responded with crisis talks and promises to help families unable to service their debts. While Sigurdardottir on Oct. 19 backed away from initial proposals to write down 20 percent of all mortgage debt, she says she hasn’t given up on her goal of delivering broad debt relief.
Not Allowed
The IMF won’t be “allowed” to block her efforts, even if the government becomes more indebted, she said on Oct. 8
To help families, her government is pushing a bill that will allow bankrupts to walk away from their debts after two years. Her administration on Oct. 22 also presented a foreign- lending bill that will reduce each household’s debt burden by $13,500 on average, leaving lenders liable for the impact of currency losses. She extended by five months a moratorium on foreclosures, breaching the country’s IMF agreement.
Sigurdardottir said on Nov. 2 she hopes to present a debt relief proposal next week. She may find it difficult to reach a compromise that satisfies the country’s biggest interest groups. The lobby group representing homeowners says it won’t back down from its demands that lenders write off about 20 percent of their mortgage debt.
“We haven’t been willing to declare that we’d approve anything else,” said Fridrik O. Fridriksson, chairman of the Interest Group of the Homes, in a Nov. 1 interview.
No Write-Down
At the same time, the pension funds say they won’t accept debt relief terms that deplete the value of their mortgage investments.
“We’ve been clear that the rules of the pension funds don’t allow for a general write-down of debts,” said Hrafn Magnusson, managing director of the Icelandic Pension Funds Association, in an interview.
The failure of Kaupthing Bank hf, Glitnir Bank hf and Landsbanki Islands hf in October 2008 left creditors wondering how to recoup $86 billion in loans to the banks that have yet to be repaid. By contrast, the island’s 2009 gross domestic product was $13 billion.
The financial system remains too weak for the central bank to consider removing capital controls, Governor Mar Gudmundsson said yesterday. His bank will push back by at least three months plans to start easing currency restrictions needed to shield the krona.
Iceland’s government debt is ranked “junk” at Fitch Ratings, while Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s give the sovereign their lowest investment grade. Moody’s says mortgage relief measures that swell government debt would hurt Iceland’s rating.
Goodwill Eroded
Rising household debt burdens, deteriorating economic indicators and a failure to reach settlement with Iceland’s creditors have eroded some of Sigurdardottir’s goodwill with voters.
Support for her Social Democrat, Left Green coalition slipped to 30 percent in an October opinion poll by Capacent Gallup, compared with the 51 percent of the vote it received in the April 2009 general election.
“Her great success is to be the first woman prime minister in Iceland and the leader of the first real left wing government,” said Eirikur Bergmann, a professor of political science at Bifrost University outside Reykjavik. “Her failure is that she hasn’t been able to keep the government on the same track or find a suitable solution for the dept burden of normal households.”
Questi stanno a scannarsi tra mutuatari (che chiedono la cancellazione del 20% del debito per non vedersi pignorate le case) e fondi pensione (che si oppongono in quanto non potrebbero piu' pagare le pensioni) e vi illudete che trovino le risorse per convertirvi i non mi ricordo piu' quanti miliardi di coronacce depositate all'estero ?
Tra gli altri spunti interessanti dell'articolo , si noti la contrazione del PIL dell'8,4% nel secondo trimestre 2010 e la
percentuale dei crediti in sofferenza al 63%
