Obbligazioni bancarie KAZAKISTAN e banche kazake (2 lettori)

[METHOS]

Non mi torna il debito delle banche kazake. 19 mld quest'anno? Boh.
Dallo scorso anno sento parlare di 40 mld di debito. Penso che passato il 2008 qualcosa hanno già rimborsato. Per il 2009 si parlava di 12 mld di debito. Di cui buona parte a inizio dell'anno. Kazk e bta le due più grosse hanno già detto che hanno i soldi per pagare il 2009. Stiamo a vedere cosa succede.

 

[METHOS]

Su delle news di dicembre 2008 si parlava di 10,6 mld di debito per il 2009.

UPDATE 3-Kazakh banks won't default on foreign debt-c.bank

Wed, Dec 10 2008, 13:29 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com


By Olzhas Auyezov

ALMATY, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan sought to reassure investors on Wednesday that none of its banks would default on foreign debt although some bilateral loans may be restructured.

Central bank Governor Anvar Saidenov said he was confident none of the local banks would default on its obligations.

"No one is saying they (banks) are refusing to pay off their debt," he told a news briefing, adding that banks were due to repay a total of $10.6 billion in foreign debt next year.

Kazakhstan has been hit hard by the financial crisis and has announced a $21 billion package -- equivalent to 20 percent of gross domestic product -- to help its oil-fuelled economy.

The government is particularly worried about $40 billion of total foreign debt owed by Kazakh banks as credit conditions become tighter and bank asset quality continues to erode.

Prime Minister Karim Masimov sparked a flurry of speculation last week when he said investors would have to share some of the losses incurred by banks. He gave no clarification at the time.

Kairat Kelimbetov, head of the sovereign welfare fund Samruk-Kazyna, added to the confusion on Tuesday, saying banks should restructure foreign debt, without giving details.

Analysts described these moves as "a trial balloon" launched by the government to test the market reaction and said they wanted to see more clarity and consistency in state policies.

"We believe that this (broader restructuring) is just one of the possibilities, albeit extremely unlikely, being considered by the government as part of its wider policy response to the financial crisis," Citibank said in a note.

Timothy Ash, an RBS analyst, said the authorities seemed to be split over how to deal with existing obligations, with the central bank playing a "dovish" role towards foreign investors and the government adopting a more "hardball attitude".



VOLUNTARY

Saidenov said there would be no forced restructuring, adding that the government's idea was to put off some debt repayments to make sure its aid package trickles down into the wider economy instead of flowing out of the country.

He ruled out such rescheduling on Eurobonds and syndicated loans, saying it would be hard to negotiate such a deal due to the number of partners involved, and said it would concern only bilateral inter-bank credit.

He did not give any further details on the bilateral deals and could not estimate their value or proportion of total debt.

Kelimbetov, addressing reporters separately on Wednesday, said the partial restructuring scheme could involve four Kazakh banks but could not give any details.

"These negotiations are confidential. I think we should be able to announce results in January," he said.

Despite government efforts to reassure investors, the cost of Kazakh bank credit default swaps, a financial tool used to insure debt against default, remain near record highs.

"It is relatively positive that the restructuring will not affect the bond market, since a bond restructuring would be very disruptive for the credit and CDS markets more broadly," Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Analysts say banks have raised short-term bilateral loans to refinance maturing debt at a time when Eurobonds and syndicated loans were not available at reasonable prices.

(additional reporting by Masha Gordeyeva; Writing by Maria Golovnina; Editing by Victoria Main) Keywords: KAZAKHSTAN DEBT/

([email protected]; +7 727 250 85 00; Reuters Messaging: [email protected])



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[Imark]

Intanto arriva il report di Jyske sulla nazionalizzazione di BTA. Per ora loro sono HOLD, ma si sente puzza di SELL nell'aria... Al di là dei loro consigli per gli acquisti, da prendere rigorosamente con le pinze, come quelli di tutti, fra le righe si leggono elementi di valutazione interessanti...

Eccoli, puntuali come un orologio svizzero...

Intendiamoci, loro sono ancora hold, ma cavolo, questi ultimi 14 giorni sono stati un disastro: solo cattive notizie, problemi su problemi, rischi su rischi.

Lo stato kazako non garantisce il debito delle banche nazionalizzate, i loans bancari accordati dall'estero alle banche kazake potrebbero essere riscattati anticipatamente (in virtù della clausola del change of control di cui si parlava nei post precedenti).

In più oggi il chairman di Kazkommertz avrebbe dichiarato alla stampa kazaka che, in caso le banche kazake avessero difficoltà a tenere fede per intero ai propri impegni, andrà data priorità agli interessi nazionali. Ma Jyske precisa che loro non ritengono che questo sia ciò che il governo kazako (ossia il presidente-dittatore) realmente desidera, pur convenendo che in questo momento critico, questa dichiarazione proprio non ci voleva...

[FONT=JyskeSauna,Bold]Will Kazakhstan push foreign investors to the back of the queue?[/FONT]​

Today the chairman of the second-largest bank in Kazakhstan, Kazkommertzbank, was quoted for saying in the local press that it wants national interests to have priority in the event that the bank cannot meet all its obligations. This is a highly unfortunate statement in this critical situation, and we do not expect that this is what the government wants. It does, however, cause uncertainty about all international issues from Kazakhstani companies, i.e. primarily the banks.​

....​

E concludono: giacché le cattive notizie sono ancora in prevalenza rumors senza fondamento, manteniamo il nostro giudizio HOLD, ma non possiamo nasconderci che le ultime due settimane hanno modificato in peggio la nostra valutazione circa BTA

Il report è allegato in fondo.

....

The events over the past 14 days have adversely affected the market and our assessment of BTA Bank. The intervention by the state was larger than expected and signals that the problems are larger than originally expected. ​

On the other hand, the state has shown that it is willing to
keep its promise not to let Kazakhstani banks go bankrupt.​

The partial nationalisation implies, however, that there is a risk that foreign banks will withdraw their loans granted to BTA Bank.​

Since much bad news is still unfounded rumours, we maintain our HOLD recommendation, but there is no denying that the past 14 days have adversely affected our view on BTA Bank.​

....​

 

[Imark]

Possibile indebolimento del rating sovrano kazako ove vi fossero da prendere nel breve termine ulteriori misure a sostegno della solvibilità del sistema bancario...

I 10 mld $ impegnati a consolidamento delle banche e per lo stimolo economico rappresentano il 22% delle disponibilità in valuta estera dello Stato kazako.

Per le banche, il 44% dei prestiti era denominato in valute estere, e la svalutazione del 25% del tenge kazako influirà sensibilmente sulla percentuale dei bad loans delle banche.

In positivo, va detto che il totale del debito esterno delle banche rappresenta non più il 30% del PIL kazako stimato per il 2009 (anche se bisognerà tenere conto nelle stime della sua riduzione a causa del calo del valore del petrolio e delle altre materie prime la cui estrazione costituisce il motore dell'economia nazionale) ed inoltre che il debito pubblico kazako è bassissimo rispetto al PIL, attestandosi al 7% dello stesso.


Fitch Places Kazakhstan's Long-Term IDRs on Rating Watch Negative

19 Feb 2009 9:25 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-London-19 February 2009: Fitch Ratings has today placed Kazakhstan's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB-' (BBB minus) and its Long-term local currency IDR of 'BBB' on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The rating action reflects the agency's concern that the authorities' efforts to manage worsening problems in the economy and banking system are likely to have an adverse impact on the sovereign's finances in the relatively near-term.

The agency has simultaneously placed the country's Short-term rating at 'F3' and Country Ceiling at 'BBB' on Rating Watch Negative.
"Financial stress on Kazakhstan's banking system is intensifying and Fitch expects that the sovereign may soon have to deploy more of its fiscal capacity to alleviate the strain, potentially weakening its own finances," said Andrew Colquhoun, Director in Fitch's Sovereigns Group.

Kazakhstan moved towards taking public ownership of two of the country's four biggest banks, BTA ('B+'/ RWN) and Alliance ('B'/RWN), earlier this month. This testifies to the scale of problems being faced in the banking system.

The sovereign has already announced it will deploy USD10bn, some 22% of end-January FX sovereign external assets of USD45.9bn (consisting of official reserves of USD18.2bn and a USD27.7bn oil savings fund), to support the banking system and real economy, directly affecting the public finances. There is a risk that further financial support may have to be offered soon to enable now state-controlled banks to meet their obligations.

The economy is experiencing a sharp adjustment after years of strong credit-fuelled expansion. GDP growth slowed abruptly to 3.2% in 2008, from the 10% average annual rate seen during 2003-2007.

Impaired loans, on one official measure, rose to 8% from 3.1% over 2008 and are likely to worsen further as growth prospects remain weak.

Furthermore, the 25% devaluation of the country's currency, the tenge, this month will have an adverse impact on the relatively high share of FX-denominated loans (44% of total loans at end-2008).

Kazakhstan's sovereign external assets have fallen 7.2% since September 2008, as lower oil prices have undercut Kazakhstan's export revenues while borrowers had to meet an estimated USD6.1bn in external debt repayments in the final quarter of 2008.

The central bank estimates a further USD14bn in external debt repayments over 2009, sustaining the pressure on the external finances.

The authorities have responded by devaluing the tenge by 25%. Fitch will continue to monitor the situation closely to see whether the devaluation will staunch the drain of reserves, and to assess the impact on broader confidence in the financial system, including domestic depositor confidence in the currency and Kazakh banks.

Kazakhstan's ratings continue to benefit from low general government debt of just 7% of GDP at end-2008, and a sovereign net foreign creditor position of 28% of GDP, against 'BBB' range medians of 28% and 8% respectively.

However, this strength could come under pressure in the near-term from further state spending to support the financial system, or from state assumption of banks' debts. Banks' gross external debts equalled USD41.6bn at end-September 2008, some 30% of projected GDP, with an estimated USD8.7bn falling due in 2009

 

[Gaudente]

De profundis per il Turanalem in euro

Curiosando sul monitor di Samantaa ho notato i nuovi minimi segnati dai bond della prima banca kazaka:
TURANALEM FINANCE BV 6.25% GTD MTN 27/09/11 EUR

 

[Gaudente]

eppure stando a Bloomberg....

...sembrerebbero ancora in piedi, avendo appena ricevuto una discreta infusione di cash dallo stato http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avT6d3BEbkoY

 

[Imark]

Curiosando sul monitor di Samantaa ho notato i nuovi minimi segnati dai bond della prima banca kazaka:
TURANALEM FINANCE BV 6.25% GTD MTN 27/09/11 EUR

Purtroppo per gli amici che sono in questo bond, le news non sono fra le più ottimistiche ed anche i soldi stanziati dal governo kazako sembrerebbero essere prossimi a finire, a meno che non ne investano altri per il salvataggio delle loro banche.

PS. intanto i CDS sul debito sovrano kazako viaggiano fra i 1650 ed i 1700... l'Islanda sta poco sopra i 1000, per capirci.

Kazakhstan Invests $4.76 Billion to Stabilize Banking System

By Nariman Gizitdinov

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Kazakh government has invested 716 billion tenge ($4.76 billion) to prop up the banking system, two-thirds of a planned bailout, leaving $27 million in reserve.

The National Wellbeing Fund Samruk-Kazyna, the primary conduit for the state’s economic anti-crisis program, has 364 billion tenge left to invest, of which 240 billion tenge will go into a real estate fund and 120 billion tenge for industrial and infrastructure projects, with 4 billion tenge left for “further measures the stabilize the financial sector.”

Prime Minister Karim Masimov announced a $4 billion bank bailout in November, part of a planned 2.2 trillion tenge in state spending, almost a fifth of gross domestic product, to prevent the economy from contracting. The government will take $10 billion from the National Oil Fund, created to guard against a decline in crude oil prices.

The government expects economic growth to slow to 1 percent this year after gross domestic product expanded 3.2 percent in 2008 to 15.9 trillion tenge. Kazakhstan holds 3.2 percent of the world’s oil reserves according to BP Plc.

The government’s financial-sector investments focused on the country’s four largest banks, which received 476 billion tenge, the National Wellbeing Fund said today in an e-mailed statement.

The fund deposited 212 billion tenge in BTA Bank, the country’s biggest lender, before using the money to acquire 75.1 percent of the bank’s common shares.

Extra Cash

Another 39 billion tenge was placed in a central bank account until a decision is made on additional investment in BTA, Arman Dunayev, the lender’s chairman and the fund’s deputy head, said on Feb. 13. Today’s announcement that the fund has only 4 billion tenge left for banks may indicate that BTA won’t see this extra cash.

Adil Dosymov, a spokesman for BTA, wasn’t available for comment when contacted by Bloomberg News at his office and on his mobile phone.

The government also said on Feb. 16 that it would give 43 billion tenge to BTA to help the mortgage market and 22 billion tenge to lend small and medium-sized businesses.

The fund deposited 120 billion tenge each in Kazkommertsbank and Halyk Savings Bank, the country’s second- and third-largest lenders, and 24 billion tenge in Alliance Bank, the fourth-biggest.

 

[Imark]

Curiosando sul monitor di Samantaa ho notato i nuovi minimi segnati dai bond della prima banca kazaka:
TURANALEM FINANCE BV 6.25% GTD MTN 27/09/11 EUR

Era arrivato anche un altro dowgrade di Moody's di cui non mi ero reso conto, visto che le seguo alla lontana...

Per l'agenzia i non performing loans ammonterebbero mediamente al 25% del totale del loan portfolio in carico a ciascuna delle banche kazake...

Il supporto statale c'è, ma si paventa il rischio che ad un certo punto la lunghezza della crisi e il suo impatto sull'economia kazaka imponga di scegliere cosa salvare e cosa lasciare andare...

PS: ho tenuto anche le valutazioni specifiche su BTA, visto che credo che i bond della banca, nella lista dei picks di Jyske, siano fra quelli più presenti nei portafogli dei forumisti...

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's downgrades Kazakh financial institutions; four on review for further downgrade[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 24 February 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded the deposit and debt ratings of 15 financial institutions in Kazakhstan. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The deposit and debt ratings of five financial institutions previously on review for downgrade were confirmed. The deposit and debt ratings of four financial institutions remain on review for possible further downgrade, while the ratings of one bank are on review with direction uncertain. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The outlook on all Kazakh financial institutions' deposit and debt ratings, except for those on review, is negative.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]At the same time, the rating agency downgraded the bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs) of six banks and confirmed the BFSRs of three banks. The BFSRs of the remaining six Kazakh financial institutions previously not on review were affirmed. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]For six banks, the BFSR outlook is stable, and for nine, it is negative. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]See rating list below for details of the affected institutions and the rating actions carried out.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's said that the rating downgrades -- which conclude its review initiated on 12 December 2008 -- reflect the increasingly negative impact of the global economic crisis on the Kazakh economy and its financial institutions.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In its review, Moody's had focused on: (i) analysing the impact of the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions on Kazakh financial institutions' fundamentals; and (ii) re-examining the government support incorporated into the deposit and debt ratings of banks and government-related issuers (GRIs -- financial institutions with significant government ownership or a special charter or public policy mandate from the government).[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The mounting asset quality and liquidity problems in Kazakh banks continue to exert downward pressure on their financial stability. Moody's estimates that the level of non-performing loans in Kazakh banks accounts for about a quarter of all loans outstanding. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Despite the recent recapitalisation of the largest banks by the government, selected institutions may face a significant weakening of their capital positions from rising loan losses in the short term, the rating agency concluded.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Furthermore, the inability to refinance their large foreign wholesale debt, as well as a likely decline in customer funding, creates notable liquidity problems for most banks. As of year-end 2008, the total foreign wholesale debt of Kazakh banks was about USD40 billion, of which USD12 billion is payable in 2009.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"The recent devaluation of the Kazakh tenge also erodes the banks' financial standing by increasing their foreign currency debt burdens and by raising the default probability of their foreign currency loans," says Armen Dallakyan, a London-based Moody's analyst.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"All of these problems expose Kazakh financial institutions to substantial risks that challenge the viability of their franchises and financial fundamentals, and therefore the banks' BFSRs, which reflect these risks, remain under pressure," Mr Dallakyan adds.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The rating agency has also re-examined the systemic support probabilities incorporated into Kazakh banks' and GRIs' deposit and debt ratings. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The revised assumptions, which reflect Moody's assessment of the government's willingness to actually furnish support, are based on both the individual institution's significance to the Kazakh economy and the potential cost of such support. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's acknowledged the Kazakh authorities' commitment to supporting the country's banking system to ensure the security of customer deposits and credit flow to the economy. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]At the same time, the rating agency cautioned that the uncertainty about the length and severity of the current crisis and its impact on the Kazakh economy may make the government more cautious and selective in using its resources, especially its foreign currency reserves, to support various projects and entities.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Given these considerations, Moody's has lowered its assessment of the systemic support probability of the six largest Kazakh banks. On the other hand, the systemic support assumptions for the rated GRIs remains unchanged, or have been reduced only modestly, reflecting the relative importance of these entities' policy roles, as well as the likely size and expense of any support needed.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The deposit and debt ratings of one bank -- BTA Bank -- remain on review, with direction uncertain. The conclusion of Moody's review will depend on the outcome of the negotiations to resell the bank to Russia's Sberbank following the nationalisation of BTA Bank.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The institutions affected by Moody's rating actions are as follows. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]BTA Bank [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- BFSR: downgraded to E+ (mapping to a Baseline Credit Assessment of B3) from D- (mapping to a Baseline Credit Assessment of Ba3), negative outlook; [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- Local and foreign currency deposit ratings: downgraded to B1 from Ba1; [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- Foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating: downgraded to B1 from Ba1; [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- Subordinated foreign currency debt rating: downgraded to B2 from Ba2; [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- Junior subordinated foreign currency debt rating: downgraded to Caa1 from Ba3; [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- The local currency deposit rating benefits from a moderate systemic support probability that results in a two-notch uplift from the Baseline Credit Assessment of B3; [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- The bank's deposit and debt ratings are placed on review with direction uncertain.[/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Bank Turanalem avrebbe dichiarato, secondo la Reuters, di avere allo studio una possibile ristrutturazione del debito obbligazionario estero.

UPDATE 1-Kazakh bank BTA says may restructure foreign debt

Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:57am EDT

* Kazakh BTA says may restructure foreign debt

(Adds background)
ALMATY, March 17 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's biggest bank BTA BTAS.KZ, effectively nationalised last month, said on Tuesday it may restructure some of its $12 billion foreign debt in a move largely anticipated by the market.

"BTA, together with ... its advisors Goldman Sachs and White & Case is working on a new development strategy, and, as part of it, is considering the possibility of modifying the structure of its external liabilities which would ensure the bank's stability in the long term," it said in a statement.

BTA gave no other details of the possible restructuring.

Kazakh banks have been hit hard by the global financial crisis after years of rapid growth fuelled by foreign borrowing. The government took over BTA in early February saying it would have collapsed otherwise.

Since the takeover, BTA bonds have traded at about 20-40 percent of face value, the price that analysts say implies expected restructuring.
(Writing by Olzhas Auyezov; editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

 

[Imark]

Dopo l'amministratore delegato, anche il direttore generale di BTA si rifugia all'estero con la famiglia dopo il mandato di cattura internazionale spiccato nei suoi confronti per frode e per riciclaggio di denaro proveniente da attività illegali che avrebbe attuato per tramite della banca.

Aveva criticato la nazionalizzazione di BTA.

Riporto la notizia su di una Reuters...

Kazakhstan puts fugitive banker on wanted list
Tue Mar 24, 2009 9:59am EDT

By Olzhas Auyezov

ALMATY, March 24 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's authorities accused a senior banker of money laundering and theft on Tuesday after he criticised the government for nationalising his bank and fled the Central Asian country.

The deepening financial crisis, which has led to a string of high-profile nationalisations in the Kazakh banking sector, has exposed tensions among Kazakhstan's ruling elite as the oil-rich Caspian nation faces its worst economic recession in a decade.

Roman Solodchenko, who was deputy head of the biggest Kazakh bank BTA, fled Kazakhstan with his family last week and accused the government of "destroying" BTA by taking it over last month.

The Prosecutor General's office said on Tuesday it had put Solodchenko, 43, on its wanted list on suspicion of theft and money laundering as part of a broader probe into BTA activities.

"On March 21, due to his participation in theft being established,... Solodchenko has also been declared wanted," the Prosecutor General's office said in a statement.

Solodchenko could not be reached for comment. He has told local media he feared being turned into a scapegoat by the government as BTA, with total assets of $31 billion, struggles to survive the crisis.
The financial crisis has crippled Kazakhstan's once-booming economy.

Growing public unease with the government's handling of the crisis has created fresh challenges to the rule of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, in power since 1989.

By fleeing Kazakhstan, Solodchenko joined a handful of Kazakh politicians and industry players who have fallen out with the government and moved to Europe.

Former BTA chairman Mukhtar Ablyazov left Kazakhstan this year and is also wanted as part of the same probe. He has described accusations again him as politically motivated.

The government invested about $2 billion in BTA as part of its takeover, saying the bank would have otherwise collapsed.

The government says BTA might have to restructure some of its $12 billion foreign debt, raising concern about the broader health of Kazakhstan's once buoyant banking sector.

As the crisis takes its toll on the economy, officials expect gross domestic product to grow one percent this year after the economy expanded at an average rate of about 10 percent in 2000-2007. (Editing by Dominic Evans)