Secondo Jyske il governo kazako avrebbe ufficializzato la ristrutturazione del debito di TuranAlem e di un'altra banca kazaka. Però devo dire che nella web press finanziaria online ancora non trovo notizie puntuali in tal senso.
Questa recente Reuters riporta intanto l'andamento dei CDS delle banche coinvolte (in rapida ascesa, per quanto illiquidi) e dello stato kazako, dimezzati in due mesi, forse anche sull'assunto di un ridotto sostegno al sistema bancario...
Reuters, Monday April 20 2009
* Debt of Kazakh banks BTA, Alliance falls sharply
* Investors look to possible debt restructuring
* Restructuring could involve new debt, maturity extension
* Kazakh sovereign debt protection largely unharmed as yet
By Carolyn Cohn
LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - The debt of Kazakh banks BTA and Alliance has fallen sharply in price as investors await news within the next few weeks of possible restructuring of up to $15 billion in debt, analysts said on Monday.
Alliance debt was trading on Monday at between 10 cents and 20 cents on the dollar, while BTA's was at 20 cents to 23 cents, a fall of nearly 50 percent from early 2009 levels, analysts said.
BTA, Kazakhstan's largest bank, was nationalised two months ago to avoid bankruptcy, and has hired investment banks Goldman Sachs and UBS to advise it on managing assets and liabilities, which could include restructuring some of its $11 billion debt.
Alliance, which the government also plans to take over, said last week it had asked creditors not to demand it pay back its debt for three months so the bank could work out a restructuring plan for its foreign debt, estimated at $4 billion.
Ratings agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's cut Alliance's rating to selective default last week after the bank missed a loan repayment, although analysts said Alliance made coupon payments on Monday on Eurobond issues.
"If there are any claims for early repayment of debt, the banks may have to restructure," said Sonya Dilova, emerging corporate analyst at fund manager F&C.
As part of its efforts to help the troubled banking sector, hit by growing bad loans, the Kazakh government has also agreed to buy stakes of up to 25 percent in Kazkommertsbank and Halyk bank.
HOW TO RESTRUCTURE?
Conventional debt restructuring would involve the government buying up short-term bank debt and issuing its own longer-term debt.
However, the Kazakh government has so far said it would not issue new debt, and analysts were also doubtful this would happen.
"If there were to be any debt-raising required, it would be more likely to be through (sovereign wealth fund) Samruk-Kazyna," said Marc Balston, emerging debt strategist at Deutsche.
More likely, analysts said, restructuring advisers would ask for a reduction in the principal returned to debt-holders or an extension to debt maturities.
BTA has more than $3 billion in foreign debt falling due this year, including a $250 million trade financing Islamic loan which matures in July, and part of a $1.11 billion two-tranche loan which matures in September, Thomson Reuters Loan Pricing Corp data showed.
BTA also has a 200 million sterling ($292.1 million) bond maturing on Dec. 21.
Alliance's $4 billion foreign debt includes a $200 million loan tranche maturing in June, Thomson Reuters Loan Pricing Corp. data showed.
The cost of insuring BTA and Alliance debt against restructuring or default in the five-year credit default swap market has soared, although market-makers said prices were highly illiquid.
Alliance CDS are being quoted above 7,000 basis points, and BTA above 5,000, according to Markit data. Prior to the global credit crisis, a level above 1,000 bps indicated distressed debt.
Kazakhstan's own CDS have remained more stable, narrowing to around 725 bps from around 1,600 two months ago, in line with an improvement in global sentiment.
A CDS price of 725 bps means it costs $725,000 a year for five years to protect $10 million of debt.
Luis Costa, emerging debt strategist at Commerzbank, said there was a risk Kazakhstan's banking worries could eventually harm the sovereign's market standing despite the country's more than $18 billion in foreign exchange and gold reserves.
"The advisers have to come with some kind of restructuring, or the sovereign risk will start to worsen," he said.
"At the moment the bank and sovereign risks are decoupled but that could easily change." (Additional reporting by Christopher Mangham; Editing by Andrew Macdonald) ($1=.6847 Sterling)
