Obbligazioni bancarie KAZAKISTAN e banche kazake (2 lettori)

METHOS

Forumer storico
Ciao Methos, il fatto è che nei bond emessi (o nei loans negoziati, se non fosse che anche questa è cosa teorica, perché le banche da noi si finanziano tramite bond) dalle banche occidentali, le clausole change of control proprio non ci sono, in quanto si muove dall'assunto che il passaggio di proprietà non determini mai un deterioramento dell'affidabilità della banca, in quanto questa è garantita dalla vigilanza delle banche centrali sulle attività esercitate dagli istituti bancari privati.... ;)

Da noi in occidente la change of control c'è solo nei bond corporate non bancari... :)

Complimenti anche a jyske che proprio non se ne è fatto fuggire uno di bond del c.azzo
Per quanto mi riguarda io devo solo spaccarmi la testa contro il muro per le cazzate che ho fatto.
:wall::wall::wall:
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Complimenti anche a jyske che proprio non se ne è fatto fuggire uno di bond del c.azzo
Per quanto mi riguarda io devo solo spaccarmi la testa contro il muro per le cazzate che ho fatto.
:wall::wall::wall:

Non essere troppo severo con te stesso... ;) :) Diciamo anche che se questa fosse stata una crisi meno severa e un po' più "ordinaria", probabilmente avresti pagato assai meno dazio... :cool: vedere il PIL dei principali paesi industrializzati che cala del 5-6% in un solo anno è cosa che capita un paio di volte nella vita...

Su Jyske anch'io ho impiegato un po' a capire, e mi ha molto aiutato il fatto che seguo anche l'azionario: lì mi sono accorto subito che facevano giochini strani... da allora ho cominciato a seguire di più il comportamento sui bond (e mi ha salvato un poco il fatto di essere un po' fifone e molto "malfidato" come si dice a Firenze per indicare i diffidenti...)
 

METHOS

Forumer storico
Non essere troppo severo con te stesso... ;) :) Diciamo anche che se questa fosse stata una crisi meno severa e un po' più "ordinaria", probabilmente avresti pagato assai meno dazio... :cool: vedere il PIL dei principali paesi industrializzati che cala del 5-6% in un solo anno è cosa che capita un paio di volte nella vita...

Su Jyske anch'io ho impiegato un po' a capire, e mi ha molto aiutato il fatto che seguo anche l'azionario: lì mi sono accorto subito che facevano giochini strani... da allora ho cominciato a seguire di più il comportamento sui bond (e mi ha salvato un poco il fatto di essere un po' fifone e molto "malfidato" come si dice a Firenze per indicare i diffidenti...)

Ho sbagliato molto ma ho imparato molto. Questa crisi è stata una durissima lezione.
Ciao
 
Volevo aprire una discussione su Jyske bank, ma forse é inutile viste le considerazione che ha già fatto dall'alto della sua esperienza i98mark.

In effetti anch'io é da tempo che leggo report obbligazionari di Jyske Bank ed inizialmente e fintanto che l'economia girava in un altro senso sembravano report "attendibili". Ora mi rendo conto che ogni volta che una società risulta non navigare più in buone acque Jyske ti dice SELL. Peccato che la loro indicazione arrvi quando il bond prezza 10 e quindi sembra superfluo dare tali indicazioni. Risultano essere completamente inutili. A quel punto tanto vale tenersi il bond e sperare. Anche perché certe obbligazioni mi auguro siano in portafoglio con percentuali del 3-4% max.
 

INVESTOR

Nuovo forumer
Ora anche gli azionisti :D

BTA Shareholders Seek $3 Billion From Kazakhstan (Update1)

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By Emma O’Brien and Nariman Gizitdinov
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- BTA Bank’s shareholders are seeking as much as $3 billion from Kazakhstan’s government for damages they say their clients incurred in the state takeover of the country’s biggest lender.
KT Asia Investment Group BV, based in Amsterdam, and Vienna-based GEM Equity Management AG allege the acquisition of 75 percent of BTA by the government’s sovereign wealth fund constituted nationalization, violating investment treaties that Kazakhstan has with the Netherlands and Austria, the Kazakh Agency for Financial Supervision said today.
“The government bought authorized shares of the bank in accordance with Kazakh laws,” Yelena Bakhmutova, chairman of the agency, said in faxed responses to questions from Bloomberg News. “This isn’t nationalization because the government will sell its stake in the future.”
Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna paid 212 billion tenge ($1.67 billion) for 75.1 percent of BTA in February through a sale of new shares after the bank failed to raise enough money to bolster its reserves to the level demanded by the government, diluting the stakes of other investors.
The Dutch and Austrian companies filed complaints with arbitration bodies of the United Nations and World Bank against Prime Minister Karim Masimov, the central bank and the Finance Ministry, according to Clyde & Co. LLP, the London-based law firm handling the cases. Arbitration rules prohibit disclosing details of the proceedings, a Clyde lawyer said by phone from London.
$3 Billion
Kazakhstan “acted through” Prime Minister Karim Masimov, the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Finance Ministry, the state financial regulator and Samruk-Kazyna, the lawyer said. KT Asia Investment owned 9.7 percent of BTA last June, according to bank data released that month of shareholders with stakes of more than 5 percent. GEM Equity Management wasn’t listed at the time. In all of 2007, existing shareholders bought $1.5 billion of new shares, according to BTA data.
Anvar Saidenov, the former central banker who was put in charge of BTA in February, told reporters in Almaty last week that two shareholders had filed “lawsuits” seeking $1.5 billion each, without elaborating. Clyde & Co. confirmed the $3 billion total.
Debt, Default
BTA halted principal payments on its debt April 23, blaming creditors for demanding immediate repayment of debt. Standard & Poor’s downgraded BTA to “default” and Fitch Ratings cut it to “restricted default” as the bank’s credit-default swaps, or debt insurance, were called in. BTA has $1.03 billion in bonds and loans due this year, according to Bloomberg data.
Arbitration allows parties to privately resolve disputes outside of the reach of local courts. The Dutch case will be moderated by the World’s Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, or ICSID, in Washington, while the Austrian one will be conducted under the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law, or UNCITRAL, in Vienna.
Kazakhstan, the Dutch shareholder and ICSID will each appoint an arbitrator to rule on the case as a “triumvirate,” the Clyde lawyer said. Under UNCITRAL rules, a tribunal is set up by the parties involved, said Corinne Montineri, legal officer at the Vienna-based body.
AIG Case
“The Kazakh Government is in the process of selecting a representative” for the proceedings, said Bakhmutova, the financial regulator.
BTA shares jumped 8.7 percent to 2,827 tenge at 5 p.m. in Almaty. Its 7.875 percent dollar-bonds due next year rose 1.1 percent to 21.183 cents, according to ING Groep NV prices compiled by Bloomberg. The price on BTA’s 8 percent bonds due 2014 added 0.2 percent to 17.545 cents.
Five cases have been brought against Kazakhstan in the past eight years, three of which are still pending, according to ICSID’s Web site. AIG Capital Partners Inc., a unit of U.S. insurer American International Group Inc., brought an arbitration case against Kazakhstan in 2001 over the construction of a residential housing complex. The case was settled for an undisclosed sum in 2003, according to the ICSID Web site.
Martijn Odens, an adviser to KT Asia, declined to comment today when reached by phone in Amsterdam. Nobody answered the door when a Bloomberg reporter rang the bell at GEM Equity Management’s registered address in Vienna. Austrian company records show Anuar Aizhulov has been CEO of GEM since 2006. Aizhulov was appointed chairman of BTA insurance units BTA Life and BTA Zabota last July, after heading the bank’s Ukrainian unit, BTA’s Web site shows.
Sholpan Mukasheva, a spokeswoman for Samruk-Kazyna, and Ainagul Shakirova, spokeswoman for the prime minister, declined to comment about the cases immediately, as did Gulnar Yertlesova of the central bank and the Finance Ministry’s Anna Zhekenova.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Intanto migliora l'outlook sul debito sovrano kazako. Motivazione: calano decisamente le prospettive di supporto al sistema bancario dopo i recenti comportamenti assunti dal governo nazionale. Un po' all'islandese, nel senso che, rinunciando a salvare le banche evitando loro una ristrutturazione distressed del debito, lo Stato kazako mette in salvo sé stesso...

Le aspettative di S&P - che portano al miglioramento dell'outlook sovrano - sono basate infatti sulla circostanza per cui lo Stato kazako dia garanzie per i depositi bancari, ma limiti la esposizione alle obbligazioni originate dal debito facente carico alle banche.

Republic of Kazakhstan Outlook Revised To Stable On Easing Bank Contingent Liability Concerns; Ratings Affirmed

-- We expect the Kazakh government to limit potential liabilities arising from banking pressures, while at the same time providing sufficient resources to underpin depositor confidence and to allow the system to function in a manner supportive of the economy, despite near-term challenges.
-- We are revising the outlook on the Republic of Kazakhstan to stable from negative, while affirming the sovereign credit ratings.


LONDON (Standard & Poor's) May 8, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it had revised its outlook on the Republic of Kazakhstan to stable from negative. At the same time, the 'BBB-' foreign currency and 'BBB' local currency long-term sovereign credit ratings were affirmed. The 'A-3' foreign and local currency short-term ratings and the 'kzAAA' national scale ratings were also affirmed. The Transfer & Convertibility assessment on Kazakhstan is 'BBB'.

"The outlook revision reflects the Kazakh government's emerging policy in limiting potential liabilities arising from banking pressures, while at the same time providing sufficient resources to underpin depositor confidence and to allow the system to function in a manner supportive of the economy, despite near-term challenges," Standard & Poor's credit analyst Ben Faulks said.

The government's decision to restructure rather than guarantee or repay the debt of BTA Bank J.S.C. (D/--/D), Kazakhstan's largest bank (which it took over in February), and its refusal to take over the fourth-largest bank, Alliance Bank JSC (SD/--/SD) (as asked by shareholders, unless creditors agree to debt restructuring), lead us to conclude that the Kazakh government is not prepared to sacrifice its financial strength to repay bank external debts that at year-end 2008 amounted to about 30% of GDP (see "Kazakhstan-Based Kazkommertsbank (JSC) And Halyk Bank Downgraded On Lower Likelihood Of State Support; Outlooks Negative," published on May 6, 2009, on RatingsDirect).

Despite the revision of the sovereign outlook, we expect the Kazakh economy to remain under significant stress in 2009. Banks face substantial principal repayments of external debt in 2009 and Standard & Poor's expects most loans that are not rescheduled to be repaid rather than rolled over, thereby contributing to a forecast economic contraction of 3%, which would in turn contribute to a further worsening of asset quality.

We expect lending under the government's fiscal stimulus package to drive the general government into a deficit of 8.1% of GDP in 2009, although a recovery in oil prices versus the conservative $40 budgeted oil price would narrow the deficit this year. We believe that Kazakhstan is well placed to provide stimulus support and, if necessary, further capital to systemically important banks, as it holds little debt and retains fiscal assets in the National Oil Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan amounting to 23% of forecast 2009 GDP.

While we project that the current account will operate a deficit this year, the forecast is closely linked to what happens to Kazakhstan's terms of trade. The current account deficit could narrow markedly should banks delay interest payments or if oil prices continue to recover to higher levels.

Kazakhstan's current account deficit is expected to be covered fully by committed foreign direct investment (FDI) into the oil sector as well as the provision, in the near term, of $10 billion in funds from the Chinese government in return for access to Kazakhstan's energy resources. Kazakhstan's monetary reserves also remain sizeable.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the Kazakh government will manage the economic challenges that the country faces without severe impairment to its fiscal or external balance sheets," Mr. Faulks said.

A substantially more expansive fiscal stance--principally via far greater support to troubled banks--than we currently expect would bring downward pressure on the ratings. A protracted period of low oil prices would also test the Kazakh government's fiscal prudence and bring downward pressure on the currency, further exacerbating banking difficulties. The ratings could be raised if the current difficulties are overcome in such a way as to allow economic growth to recover to its long-term potential rate
 

maxinblack

Forumer storico
La mia banca mi ha inviato un documento sul default di ALB FINANCE Cod. ISIN XS0284859054 vi allego una copia e mi spiegate cosa significa e che devo fare? grazie a tutti.
 

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Gaudente

Forumer storico
La mia banca mi ha inviato un documento sul default di ALB FINANCE Cod. ISIN XS0284859054 vi allego una copia e mi spiegate cosa significa e che devo fare? grazie a tutti.
Semplicemente ti chiedono se, in seguito all'evento di default, vuoi dichiarare le obbligazioni "due and payable" ovvero pagabili da subito senza attendere la scadenza.
Ovviamente questa tua dichiarazione non comporta che te li paghino per davvero, ma se non altro tu avanzi la richiesta.
 

Gaudente

Forumer storico
ho qualche perplessita'.....

....sulla frase finale
PLEASE NOTE THAT BY INSTRUCTINGYOU ARE AUTOMATICALLY ALLOWING TO BLOCKYOUR HOLDING.

ovvero: prego notare che dando le istruzioni permettete automaticamente il blocco :-? dei vostri titoli.
Non mi risulta che con la dichiarazione "due and payable" i bond vengano automaticamente bloccati.
Dovresti sempre poterli negoziare , seppure ai prezzi miserrimi che seguono un default.
Chiedi delucidazioni alla tua banca.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
....sulla frase finale
PLEASE NOTE THAT BY INSTRUCTINGYOU ARE AUTOMATICALLY ALLOWING TO BLOCKYOUR HOLDING.

ovvero: prego notare che dando le istruzioni permettete automaticamente il blocco :-? dei vostri titoli.
Non mi risulta che con la dichiarazione "due and payable" i bond vengano automaticamente bloccati.
Dovresti sempre poterli negoziare , seppure ai prezzi miserrimi che seguono un default.
Chiedi delucidazioni alla tua banca.

Ho anch'io la medesima perplessità di Gaudente... sentirei la banca sul punto... ;)
 

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