Commodities KC Arabica Coffee C

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Giornata negativa ieri per il caffè, in apertura vendite provenienti dal Brasile e affondo finale dei cacciatori di stop , sempre in attesa di stime più precise sul raccolto brasilero

ODJ CSCE Coffee Review: Tumbles Through Stops To 3-Week Low

-- Brazilian Crop Forecast From Safras Consultants On High Side
-- USDA Puts World 2002-03 Output At Record 125.1 Million Bags
-- Official Brazilian Crop Forecast Should Be Out In A Week

By Susan Buchanan
New York, Dec. 6 (OsterDowJones) - Arabica coffee futures dropped to three-
week lows on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange Friday, pushing into stops
held by speculators after early selling from Brazil, traders said.
Mar settled 380 points lower at 67.30c a pound and May ended down 390
points at 69.45c.
"Two brokers were sellers for Brazil, but it wasn't that heavy," a floor
broker said. "A fund sold 200 lots of Mar early and then another 300 through
the session.
"We saw good March buying at 69.10c, but then it broke 69.00c," hitting
stops, he continued. "Volume was pretty good."
Mar opened slightly higher, but retreated. In late action, the contract
sank 420 points to a three-week low of 66.90c and ended near the day's low.
Futures volume was 13,795 lots. In the options ring, 5,125 calls and 1,930
puts traded. Over 1,600 against actuals were posted, mostly in Mar.
"I think the Safras estimate for Brazil's crop was too high and way off,"
the floor broker said. A sell-off now is an opportunity to buy ahead of "lower
crop estimates that should be out later," he observed.
Brazilian consultants Safras e Mercado on Thursday forecast the nation's
2003-04 crop at 31.22 million to 33.97 million 60-kilogram bags. Output in
Minas Gerais is expected to fall to between 13.61 million and 14.71 million
bags from 25.30 million in 2002-03.
The Brazilian Agriculture Ministry's National Commodity Supply Corp.
(Conab) plans to release its first 2003-04 crop estimate in a week or so.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged Brazil's old crop at
51.6 million bags and put the nation's 2002-03 exports at 28.6 million bags in
its tropical products report. World production in 2002-03 was estimated at a
record 125.1 million bags, up nearly 12% from last year, USDA said.
Brazilian officials offer 20,000 60-kilogram bags of old stocks on Dec. 11
in the last auction of 2002.
In Mexico, temperatures should drop in northern Veracruz, Hidalgo and
Puebla this weekend. Widespread frost is not expected, but some higher
elevations will be at the freezing mark.
Chart support for CSCE Mar lies at 66.90c, 66.60c, 66.00c to 65.95c, and
65.00c to 64.80c, while resistance is found at 71.35c, 71.50c, 72.00c, 72.70c,
73.80c to 74.00c, and 75.00c, traders said.
Jan options expire next Friday.

Settlement prices in cents/pound, dollars/metric ton
CSCE Change Range Liffe Change
Mar 67.30 dn 3.80 66.90-71.35 Jan 791 dn 15
May 69.45 dn 3.90 69.25-73.40 Mar 808 dn 17

---
Susan Buchanan, OsterDowJones, (212) 668-0071
sbuchanan@osterdowjones

 

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grafico di lungo del caffè in continuo

 

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Phantom of the Pits
by Art Simpson

PREFACE





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It had to happen I thought to myself as I took a walk to the top of a small hill just behind my home. There isn't a single trader who wouldn't give half his trade equity to know how the big guru did it! Knowing his thoughts could be worth thousands of dollars in a single trade. For decades traders have wondered what is so special about perhaps the best trader ever.


It was six months ago that we had talked about giving some back. And why shouldn't he give some back. We're talking knowledge and you can't put a value on knowledge or experience. He had both. We agreed that to give back it would have to be without expectations of any recognition or rewards. He came up with a plan just as he always did. We would go on the "Futures Magazine Traders forum" and sneak information onto the forum and see how well the reception would be for the new knowledge. First he called me every name he could think of calling me other than my name.

I wasn't happy with any of the names until he asked, "how about POP?" His agreement to give back (knowledge) to other traders was really important to him at this stage of his life. I could hear it in each breath of his voiced words. I could see it in his heart as his face mirrored his concern. I could see he was taller than usual that day in the spring.

It was almost thirty years ago that I had first met him. I didn't see him as a tall man until years later. Over the years he had grown taller than I had imagined possible. Not in height but in his confidence, his manner of thought, his gestures, his speech and all the characteristics you would expect of a hero. I met him in the pits in Chicago on even ground. We were trading the same futures. I got the best of him that day but just one lesson he taught me by week's end. A market is more than a day!

The name POP sounded like a setup for me. He stopped at the top of the hill and looked to the sky as he urged me to agree on always keeping his identity confidential. He said "I will not accept the credit for my good fortune and don't want recognition for my insights on trading." He looked me in the eye and said "from now own you may call me Phantom of the Pits!" Yeah, POP I thought to myself.

As you progress from page to page you'll see the importance of Phantom's insight on trading as I have over the years. Trading is not as we all thought. Few have ever approached his methods in trading. How do you measure the worth of a man or women I still ask myself after that short walk to the top of the hill. Here is a trader who is the best trader I have ever known and perhaps the best trader in the world. We will measure his worth by his deeds and insights into trading! Yes, that's how we will size up Phantom of the Pits.

Art Simpson

" We will measure his worth by his deeds and insights into trading! Yes, that's how we will size up Phantom of the Pits."
---ALS



continua.....

 

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Phantom of the Pits
by Art Simpson

Forward




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I've been asked over three decades to present to others just a few of the secrets of trading. I am not one to want my picture front and center. I am not one to want my name a household word. I am not one to face the five-percent of those who would cry foul in giving to others what has been given to me. If I can save the grief of some of the trading torture to those who search out the knowledge of trading then I am in a position to acknowledge my debt.

Most traders think that the important element in success is knowledge. In my trading career I have found that correct knowledge and the ability to change behavior are the most important parts of successful trading. Correct knowledge without behavior modification projects improper execution of an otherwise perfect trading plan.

In three decades of learning correct trading knowledge and behavior modification, I have included in my trading plans, two rules that present me with the ability to change my thinking and behavior. Both rules are required for successful trading. Upon urging from a longtime trading friend, I shall share my insight on these rules.

By trade I am not a writer nor is Art. We are both traders but it is my desire to present insight into what is required in successful trading. This project was agreeable to me if we would do it on my terms. We came to an agreement on my terms of how it would be presented and that it would be presented as I wished.

Our agreement was that I would remain in my own privacy. I would not give my name but only my approval in writings about my insights of trading. You may call me Phantom of the Pits. Your success in trading shall be at your own hand and direction. You shall know me as Phantom, a shadow in your success. That is how I wish it to be.

Phantom of the Pits

" You may call me Phantom of the Pits."
---POP




continua.....

 

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Inizio mattina negativo per il caffè varietà robusta quotato al LIFFE, smobilitazione fondi e vendite dei produttori spingono al ribasso i prezzi, con lo spettro dell'intervento a breve dei vietnamiti

By Ian Stephenson
London, Dec. 9 (OsterDowJones) - Liffe Jan robusta coffee futures were
sharply lower midday Monday compared to Friday's settlement, pressured by long
liquidation and producer selling, brokers said.
At 1220 GMT Liffe Jan was $15/ton lower at $793 a metric ton with 3,825
lots traded.
Prices early Monday came under pressure from follow through selling from
Friday's weaker close and when the market fell through the $790/ton level,
basis Mar, small sell stops were triggered taking prices to a 3-week low of
$874/ton, brokers said.
After the initial falls prices then recovered off their lows as scale down
trade and industry buying re-emerged, but because they are not willing to
chase values higher and expectations that arabica coffee futures traded on New
York's Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange are likely to fall later in the
session meant the market has been unable to recover, they added.
With prices now hovering just above key support at $770/ton, basis Jan,
falls in New York could prompt the market to fall below this level and
initiate more aggressive liquidation by the smaller funds and speculators,
brokers said.
Only if prices were to fall to around the $735/ton level would the larger
funds start to consider liquidating their longs. With the prospect of more
aggressive fund liquidation, and producer hedging from Vietnam starting to
increase, brokers said that any strength back over the $800/ton level should
be sold into.
Finally, world coffee production in 2002/03 is forecast at a record 125.1
million bags (60 kilograms or 132.276 pounds), up 2.4% from the first forecast
made in June, and up nearly 12% from the previous year's level, according to a
U.S. Department of Agriculture press release.
Brazil's crop in 2002/03 is forecast at a record 51.6 million bags, up
10%, or 4.75 million bags, from the June 2002 estimate. Mainly as a result of
the large Brazilian crop, total supply in 2002/03 is forecast to reach 148.9
million bags, up nearly 9% over the 2001/02 level. Brazil is expected to
account for about 40% of total supplies in 2002/03, with Colombia's share
revised to nearly 9% and Vietnam's share revised down to 7%.

At 1220 GMT: Jan $15/ton dn at $776/ton, volume 3,825 lots.
Mar $15/ton dn at $793/ton, volume 1,856 lots.
May $17/ton dn at $806/ton, volume 410 lots.
Jan range: $784-$802/ton
Estimated volume: 6,426 lots.

 

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apertura come previsto in gapdown sotto i 66cents

ODJ CSCE Coffee Pre-Open: Called Down 50-100 Pts; London Slides




New York, Dec 09, 2002 (ODJ via COMTEX) -- -- Funds, Small Speculators Net Long 27,866 Lots Last Tues.

(OsterDowJones) - Arabica coffee futures are called to open 50 to 100 points lower on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange Monday following a retreat in the London robusta market, traders said.

CSCE prices dropped to three-week lows Friday, pushing into stops held by speculators after early Brazilian selling.

Funds and small speculators stood net long a sizable 27,866 lots of CSCE futures last Tuesday, while commercials were short that amount, Friday's commitments of traders showed.

The Brazilian Agriculture Ministry's National Commodity Supply Corp. (Conab) may release its first 2003-04 crop estimate late this week.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture put Brazil's old crop at 51.6 million bags and pegged the nation's 2002-03 exports at 28.6 million bags. World production in 2002-03 was estimated at a record 125.1 million bags, up nearly 12% from last year, USDA said.

Brazilian officials offer 20,000 60-kilogram bags of old stocks on Wednesday.

Nightly temperatures in some highland Mexican growing areas dropped over the weekend.

Chart support for CSCE Mar lies at 66.90c, 66.60c, 66.00c to 65.95c, and 65.00c to 64.80c, while resistance is found at 71.35c, 71.50c, 72.00c, 72.70c, 73.80c to 74.00c, and 75.00c, traders said.

Jan options expire Friday.

 

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Phantom of the Pits
by Art Simpson

Chapter 1 - Phantom's Insights





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The following is an interview with one of the most powerful traders I have ever known and whom I consider the best trader I have ever known. His purpose in this agreement of this interview is to help those who have that ability and desire to become the best traders they can possible be. There is no claim to fame so to speak but only the honest effort to bring to other traders the insight of a very difficult business of trading for a living.

ALS - Phantom, why do we start this book without knowing who you are for others to admire and thank?

Phantom of the Pits - I remember being on a train after one of my first trading days and thinking of how I had doubled my account in that one day. I looked around and was so proud of what I had done but not one person on the train knew or would even care if they did know. At that point my direction was self-driven in seeking out what was possible in trading. I know more now than I knew then.

The markets as a trader have humbled me more times than I wish to remember. It's always easier for an observer to put their finger on a problem than the one who is wrapped up in the situation. That is who I am! I am the observer and I wish to point out the line in the sand. I don't know who puts the line in the sand but I clearly see it. Who remembers he who points out the line? You may call me Phantom of the Pits from here forward and we shall remain as the shadow of your writings.

ALS - After over three decades of trading why haven't you written a book sooner?

POP (Phantom of the Pits) - I have but they have all seemed to be outdated because knowledge is quicker in coming than in writing I always wanted to have it exact. I have made mistakes and to give my mistakes to others seemed to be admitting I was wrong. It has taken years to understand that being wrong is what trading is all about.

ALS - Surely there are those who know you and appreciate what you have accomplished in your trading career. Why don't you accept their recognition?

POP - I have always believed that there are two sides to a coin. In fact I find out that there are times when you could argue a third. I won't take credit for what I have accomplished. There are no guarantees and I have been put on notice a few times.

My success is nothing without putting a bucket full of water beside the pump to prime it for the next trader, the other side of the coin. There will always be those who drink all the water from the bucket (the third side of the coin.) Why shouldn't the thirst of others be fulfilled when it can be done so easily?

ALS - To You what is the most important aspect of trading?

POP - Behavior modification without doubt is the key to trading success. Not only in how we think but also how we act in certain situations. We must adapt to changing situations which we have no control. We often must change the situations of which we do have control when trading.

ALS - Let's start your writings and insights into successful trading from any background you can give us of your trading! Is there any important point you wish to make about your trading background.

POP - My only point is that I am not different from any of the readers who will read this. How I got started or who I am makes no difference in trading. Let us not dwell in such trivia, which has no significance in how your readers will succeed. What was is and what is was but a breath after the markets close.

ALS - Ok, with me if it is ok with you that we get started with our behavior modification of trading!

POP - Ok with me but a little history on my first access to behavior modification as a child. My brother was at a tour of a blacksmith's shop in his youth and watched the blacksmith take channel lock pliers, hold a horseshoe, hit it with a ball pin hammer a few times to shape it, and then put it into a fire to temper the metal.

Upon removing the horseshoe from the fire and dipping it into water, a tempering process, he laid it down! At that point my brother picked it up and threw it down on the ground. The blacksmith looked at my brother and said "Hot isn't it son?"

Well my brother said "It don't take me long to look at a horseshoe!" That taught me more in trading than anything else. Trading is not taking long to look at a horseshoe. Don't ever forget that!

ALS - Trading is like a hot horseshoe?

POP - Your losers are your hot horseshoes!

Note: Phantom has observed and participated in an internet forum sponsored by Futures Magazine in an effort to pay his debt to other traders. Many sharp traders frequent the forum as well as beginning traders.

One remark of interest in observation of the forum by Phantom was as to how effective knowledge can travel today compared to the late 60's and early 70's. It is Phantom's thought that he who has the most toys will not win but he who has the most knowledge and can change their behavior to what is needed will take it home.

"It should never take long to look at a horseshoe"
---POP

 

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previsioni meteorologiche per il Brazil e la Colombia

BRAZIL: The beneficial showers in central and northern Brazil will linger the first part of the week, while a disturbance will move across central Brazil midweek into Thursday, producing moderate to locally heavy showers from Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul into Goias and Sao Paulo. After a drier couple of days in soggy southern Brazil, showers will return by midweek lasting throughout the second half of the week.

COLOMBIA: Light showers will create minor slowdowns in the ongoing coffee harvest across the country into Tuesday, while drier conditions return the second half of the week.