Fleursdumal
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Giornata aperta con gap, min a 65,10 e tentativo finale di andare a colmare il buco grafico non ben riuscito
Commodities KC Arabica Coffee C
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
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Coffee
On December 6th, the USDA issued its world estimates of the 2002-2003 coffee crop and the results were heavy. They pegged world production at 125.1 million (60-kg) bags, up 12% from the previous year and a new record high. Total exports are expected at 90.1 million bags, up almost 4% from 2001-2002. World consumption is implied to be 116.8 million bags, resulting in ending stocks of 30.7 million bags, or 26% of annual use. From a fundamental point of view, it remains puzzling that the last time prices were this cheap (1992-1993), the ending stocks to use ratio hit 41%, far higher than today's levels.
Make no mistake, coffee producers are experiencing financial pain. The coffee market is approaching the fifth year of its downtrend with prices near three-decade lows. Unfortunately for producers, they have shown little ability to cooperate among themselves. The Brazilian government has tried to temporarily hold some coffee off of the market and 45 members of the International Coffee Organization have agreed to restrain production, but these types of plans rarely work. Without something more, some coffee producers (or governments) will have to go out of business.
On September 20th, Vietnam said that their 2002-2003 production may only be 9.2 million bags, down 25% from a year ago due to drought and farm neglect in this low-price environment. Even though prices are already in the dumps, Brazil produced 51.6 million bags, a new record high. For 2003-2004 however, the crop is expected to be substantially smaller due to poor care in the low-price environment. Hot and dry weather during October and part of November also caught the market by suprise and may have hurt the trees in their flowering stage. Mexico's coffee crop is expected to be the smallest ever and Central America is said to be suffering its worst drought in 20 years.
2002-2003 Production Est. Mill Bags % of World
Brazil 51.6 41%
Colombia 11.0 9%
Vietnam 9.2 7%
World 125.1 100%
Regular seasonal rain returned to most coffee areas in November following an unusually dry October which resulted in a poor flowering and increased stress on trees exhausted after a huge crop this year.
Producers estimate that the 2003 coffee crop could be between 40 and 70 percent lower than this year's officially estimated 45 million 60-kg bags.
The USDA last week revised up its Brazilian coffee crop estimate 10 percent to 51.6 million bags due to higher than expected yields and an increase in the coffee tree inventory.
A 20 percent fall in coffee output in 2003 would be normal due to a downturn in coffee's biennial production.
Reuters. December 2, 2002.
"The major producers have changed their blends to focus on Brazilian conillons [robustas] and Vietnamese beans. But Brazil and Vietnam are under the effects of a drought, Indonesia does not look much better and what to say about Ivory Coast?" one dealer said, referring to political uncertainty in the West African nation.
Financial Times. November 21, 2002.
Brazil's harvest is winding down and could be a massive 50 million bags or more, compared with 34 million last season, traders said.
Wall Street Journal. August 29, 2002.
World Coffee Market Statistics (in million 60-kg. bags)
Year ending September 30, 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production 93.0 92.4 97.0 88.9 103.8 97.5 108.4 113.3 116.6 111.8e 125.1e
Total Use 99.5 99.2 91.2 98.2 108.9 103.1 110.3 116.5 114.4 112.9e 116.8e
Ending Stocks 40.5 34.3 41.2 33.1 29.1 24.9 24.4 21.3 23.5 22.4e 30.7e
E. Stocks to Use Ratio (%) 41 35 45 34 27 24 22 18 21 20e 26e
On December 6th, the USDA issued its world estimates of the 2002-2003 coffee crop and the results were heavy. They pegged world production at 125.1 million (60-kg) bags, up 12% from the previous year and a new record high. Total exports are expected at 90.1 million bags, up almost 4% from 2001-2002. World consumption is implied to be 116.8 million bags, resulting in ending stocks of 30.7 million bags, or 26% of annual use. From a fundamental point of view, it remains puzzling that the last time prices were this cheap (1992-1993), the ending stocks to use ratio hit 41%, far higher than today's levels.
Make no mistake, coffee producers are experiencing financial pain. The coffee market is approaching the fifth year of its downtrend with prices near three-decade lows. Unfortunately for producers, they have shown little ability to cooperate among themselves. The Brazilian government has tried to temporarily hold some coffee off of the market and 45 members of the International Coffee Organization have agreed to restrain production, but these types of plans rarely work. Without something more, some coffee producers (or governments) will have to go out of business.
On September 20th, Vietnam said that their 2002-2003 production may only be 9.2 million bags, down 25% from a year ago due to drought and farm neglect in this low-price environment. Even though prices are already in the dumps, Brazil produced 51.6 million bags, a new record high. For 2003-2004 however, the crop is expected to be substantially smaller due to poor care in the low-price environment. Hot and dry weather during October and part of November also caught the market by suprise and may have hurt the trees in their flowering stage. Mexico's coffee crop is expected to be the smallest ever and Central America is said to be suffering its worst drought in 20 years.
2002-2003 Production Est. Mill Bags % of World
Brazil 51.6 41%
Colombia 11.0 9%
Vietnam 9.2 7%
World 125.1 100%
Regular seasonal rain returned to most coffee areas in November following an unusually dry October which resulted in a poor flowering and increased stress on trees exhausted after a huge crop this year.
Producers estimate that the 2003 coffee crop could be between 40 and 70 percent lower than this year's officially estimated 45 million 60-kg bags.
The USDA last week revised up its Brazilian coffee crop estimate 10 percent to 51.6 million bags due to higher than expected yields and an increase in the coffee tree inventory.
A 20 percent fall in coffee output in 2003 would be normal due to a downturn in coffee's biennial production.
Reuters. December 2, 2002.
"The major producers have changed their blends to focus on Brazilian conillons [robustas] and Vietnamese beans. But Brazil and Vietnam are under the effects of a drought, Indonesia does not look much better and what to say about Ivory Coast?" one dealer said, referring to political uncertainty in the West African nation.
Financial Times. November 21, 2002.
Brazil's harvest is winding down and could be a massive 50 million bags or more, compared with 34 million last season, traders said.
Wall Street Journal. August 29, 2002.
World Coffee Market Statistics (in million 60-kg. bags)
Year ending September 30, 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production 93.0 92.4 97.0 88.9 103.8 97.5 108.4 113.3 116.6 111.8e 125.1e
Total Use 99.5 99.2 91.2 98.2 108.9 103.1 110.3 116.5 114.4 112.9e 116.8e
Ending Stocks 40.5 34.3 41.2 33.1 29.1 24.9 24.4 21.3 23.5 22.4e 30.7e
E. Stocks to Use Ratio (%) 41 35 45 34 27 24 22 18 21 20e 26e
Fleursdumal
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ODJ CSCE Coffee Review: Down But Pares Drop To 5-Week Low
-- Market Waits For Brazil's First 2003-04 Crop Forecast
-- USDA's Huge Old-Crop Estimate For Brazil No Surprise
-- Funds, Small Speculators Long 27,866 lots Last Tuesday
By Susan Buchanan
New York, Dec. 9 (OsterDowJones) - Arabica coffee futures dropped on the
Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange Monday, but trimmed losses after roaster buying
lent support and some of the shorts covered. The market touched a 5-week low
in early action as funds sold and stops were triggered.
Mar settled 100 points lower at 66.30c a pound and May ended down 90
points at 68.55c.
"Funds sold it down early and stops were hit," a desk trader said. "A U.S.
roaster was buying.
"Later, one fund that had sold bought it back," he continued.
Brazilian firms did some arbitrage between the CSCE and BM&F, the trader
observed.
Mar gapped down and soon sank 220 points to the day's low of 65.10c.
Roasters and industry bought and locals covered. The market entered the
overhead gap in late action, but didn't fill it.
Futures volume was 13,874 lots. In the options ring, 5,018 calls and 2,353
puts traded. Some 848 against actuals were posted in Mar.
Brazil's Agriculture Ministry plans to release its first 2003-04 crop
forecast soon and possibly late this week. The estimate is expected to be much
smaller than the last bumper harvest because of recent dry weather and the
cyclical nature of production.
A report from USDA late Friday putting Brazil's last (2002-03) harvest at
a huge 51.6 million bags was no shock, since the agency's attache had recently
pegged the crop at that level.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture put world production in 2002-
03 at a record 125.1 million bags, up nearly 12% from last year.
In December, Colombian coffee officials will probably lift a restriction
imposed by government-run Fedecafe that prevents exporters from registering
coffee shipments in January and beyond. Registration is usually kept open for
three months in advance, but was closed before a planned tax increase passes
Congress this month and becomes law in January.
Nightly temperatures in some highland Mexican growing areas dropped over
the weekend.
Funds and small speculators stood net long 27,866 lots of CSCE futures
last Tuesday, while commercials were short that amount.
Chart support for CSCE Mar lies at 65.10c, 65.00c to 64.80c, 64.50c and
64.00c, while resistance is found at a gap at 66.70c to 66.90c, 67.50c,
68.00c, 69.00c, 70.00c, and 71.35c, traders said.
Jan options expire Friday.
Settlement prices in cents/pound, dollars/metric ton
CSCE Change Range Liffe Change
Mar 66.30 dn 1.00 65.10-66.70 Jan 784 dn 7
May 68.55 dn 0.90 67.50-69.00 Mar 802 dn 6
La Fossa
-- Market Waits For Brazil's First 2003-04 Crop Forecast
-- USDA's Huge Old-Crop Estimate For Brazil No Surprise
-- Funds, Small Speculators Long 27,866 lots Last Tuesday
By Susan Buchanan
New York, Dec. 9 (OsterDowJones) - Arabica coffee futures dropped on the
Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange Monday, but trimmed losses after roaster buying
lent support and some of the shorts covered. The market touched a 5-week low
in early action as funds sold and stops were triggered.
Mar settled 100 points lower at 66.30c a pound and May ended down 90
points at 68.55c.
"Funds sold it down early and stops were hit," a desk trader said. "A U.S.
roaster was buying.
"Later, one fund that had sold bought it back," he continued.
Brazilian firms did some arbitrage between the CSCE and BM&F, the trader
observed.
Mar gapped down and soon sank 220 points to the day's low of 65.10c.
Roasters and industry bought and locals covered. The market entered the
overhead gap in late action, but didn't fill it.
Futures volume was 13,874 lots. In the options ring, 5,018 calls and 2,353
puts traded. Some 848 against actuals were posted in Mar.
Brazil's Agriculture Ministry plans to release its first 2003-04 crop
forecast soon and possibly late this week. The estimate is expected to be much
smaller than the last bumper harvest because of recent dry weather and the
cyclical nature of production.
A report from USDA late Friday putting Brazil's last (2002-03) harvest at
a huge 51.6 million bags was no shock, since the agency's attache had recently
pegged the crop at that level.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture put world production in 2002-
03 at a record 125.1 million bags, up nearly 12% from last year.
In December, Colombian coffee officials will probably lift a restriction
imposed by government-run Fedecafe that prevents exporters from registering
coffee shipments in January and beyond. Registration is usually kept open for
three months in advance, but was closed before a planned tax increase passes
Congress this month and becomes law in January.
Nightly temperatures in some highland Mexican growing areas dropped over
the weekend.
Funds and small speculators stood net long 27,866 lots of CSCE futures
last Tuesday, while commercials were short that amount.
Chart support for CSCE Mar lies at 65.10c, 65.00c to 64.80c, 64.50c and
64.00c, while resistance is found at a gap at 66.70c to 66.90c, 67.50c,
68.00c, 69.00c, 70.00c, and 71.35c, traders said.
Jan options expire Friday.
Settlement prices in cents/pound, dollars/metric ton
CSCE Change Range Liffe Change
Mar 66.30 dn 1.00 65.10-66.70 Jan 784 dn 7
May 68.55 dn 0.90 67.50-69.00 Mar 802 dn 6
La Fossa
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Un'altra tecnica di trading:
Spread Trading
A spread is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same or similar commodity in the same or different contract months. Spread trading is usually considered to be a lower risk strategy than an outright long or short futures position, and therefore margin requirements are usually much less than an outright long or short futures.
For example, if the price trend of soybeans is currently up and you are in a soybean spread, (short one month and long another) the gain on the long position would likely offset the loss of the short position, and vice-versa. One side of the spread typically hedges the other, therefore the lower margin requirements. Keep in mind that spreads are not guaranteed to be less risky, there is risk of loss in all trading.
Just like with any commodity a spread can be bought and sold at "x" price, and it can be charted just like any other market. What is being plotted?...simple...the difference between two contracts. A typical spread chart looks like this: ( vedi sotto)
You must be asking "How do I make money if I am long and short the same commodity?" The answer is you are hoping to profit from the difference in the two contract months, not from a trend higher or lower in any particular market. With a spread, you follow the relationship, or difference between the contracts, without having to pick a market direction.
For example, if July Soybeans were trading at $5.10/bushel and November Soybeans were at $5.35 the spread would be said to be at .25 to the November side. If you entered a July/November bean spread (your broker would simultaneously buy a July and sell a November contract) and soybeans rallied, what would happen? Well, let's say July settled one day at $5.70 and November settled at $5.75, the spread would now be .05. In this example July rallied 60 cents (you were long a July contract so you made 60 cents on it) and November rallied 40 cents (you were short a November contract and lost 40 cents on it), you would have a net gain of 20 cents on the spread. Your broker could exit the spread and you would have made 20 cents/bushel * 5000 bushels = $1,000. If you had entered the spread in the other direction you would be losing $1,000.
The above example is known as an intra-commodity spread, buying one month and selling another in the same commodity. An inter-commodity spread is buying a commodity month in one market, and selling another related commodity in the same or similar month.
Some of the advantages of spreads are:
1. typically require smaller margin deposits
2. underlying market direction isn't important
3. seasonal patterns exist among spreads
Spread Chart
Spread Trading
A spread is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same or similar commodity in the same or different contract months. Spread trading is usually considered to be a lower risk strategy than an outright long or short futures position, and therefore margin requirements are usually much less than an outright long or short futures.
For example, if the price trend of soybeans is currently up and you are in a soybean spread, (short one month and long another) the gain on the long position would likely offset the loss of the short position, and vice-versa. One side of the spread typically hedges the other, therefore the lower margin requirements. Keep in mind that spreads are not guaranteed to be less risky, there is risk of loss in all trading.
Just like with any commodity a spread can be bought and sold at "x" price, and it can be charted just like any other market. What is being plotted?...simple...the difference between two contracts. A typical spread chart looks like this: ( vedi sotto)
You must be asking "How do I make money if I am long and short the same commodity?" The answer is you are hoping to profit from the difference in the two contract months, not from a trend higher or lower in any particular market. With a spread, you follow the relationship, or difference between the contracts, without having to pick a market direction.
For example, if July Soybeans were trading at $5.10/bushel and November Soybeans were at $5.35 the spread would be said to be at .25 to the November side. If you entered a July/November bean spread (your broker would simultaneously buy a July and sell a November contract) and soybeans rallied, what would happen? Well, let's say July settled one day at $5.70 and November settled at $5.75, the spread would now be .05. In this example July rallied 60 cents (you were long a July contract so you made 60 cents on it) and November rallied 40 cents (you were short a November contract and lost 40 cents on it), you would have a net gain of 20 cents on the spread. Your broker could exit the spread and you would have made 20 cents/bushel * 5000 bushels = $1,000. If you had entered the spread in the other direction you would be losing $1,000.
The above example is known as an intra-commodity spread, buying one month and selling another in the same commodity. An inter-commodity spread is buying a commodity month in one market, and selling another related commodity in the same or similar month.
Some of the advantages of spreads are:
1. typically require smaller margin deposits
2. underlying market direction isn't important
3. seasonal patterns exist among spreads
Spread Chart
Fleursdumal
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esempio fatto considerando uno spread trading con contratti marzo e luglio sul caffè:
Date Buy Sell Diff Chg
12/09/02 66.30 70.70 -4.40 -.15
12/06/02 67.30 71.55 -4.25 .20
12/05/02 71.10 75.55 -4.45 .00
12/04/02 70.10 74.55 -4.45 -.15
12/03/02 70.95 75.25 -4.30 -.20
NOTE: Diff = [Buy Close] - [Sell Close]
Date Buy Sell Diff Chg
12/09/02 66.30 70.70 -4.40 -.15
12/06/02 67.30 71.55 -4.25 .20
12/05/02 71.10 75.55 -4.45 .00
12/04/02 70.10 74.55 -4.45 -.15
12/03/02 70.95 75.25 -4.30 -.20
NOTE: Diff = [Buy Close] - [Sell Close]
Fleursdumal
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Commodity Spreads
Commodity spreads ( or straddles) measure the price difference between two different contracts, usually futures contracts. Spreads can also measure the difference between a cash contract and a futures contract ( referred to as the basis) or the price difference between two option contracts, or various combinations of the above. For the purpose of this section you will examine spreads from the context of the price difference between two different futures contracts.(see figure 6)
In the grain business the difference between two contract months of the same commodity ( ie., canola) represents the carrying charges or the cost of holding the commodity for a period of time. Carrying charges are determined by the cost of interest and storage when physical commodities are held in store. Grain traders will monitor spread relationships very closely as the relative difference between various contract positions will determine the handling margins or profitability of their involvement in marketing grain. When using spreads, the trader hopes to profit by changes in the spread (difference) between the two contracts . The trader is looking for either a widening or narrowing of the spread relationship over time. Spread trading is considered to be a less risky and often less expensive way in which to participate in the futures market. Margin requirements for spreads are generally lower than outright long or short positions, and whether the price increases or decreases the traders risk is limited to the change in the spread, since both a long and a short position are held at the same time. Since the risk is lower, so will be the potential for profit or loss. Spread trading is more complicated than outright trading and requires a higher degree of sophistication on the part of the trader. You will examine only briefly the application of spread trading to farm marketing management in this course. The purpose of this section is to familiarize yourself with the use of commodity spreads in forecasting market direction. By monitoring the relative strength between various contracts and between different markets, you will be better able to select the appropriate pricing and risk management strategies when developing your marketing plan.
Besides being used for spread trading, tracking the spread relationships between different contracts in the same market or in different markets can provide useful insights into future price direction. The relationships between the nearby and the distant months in the same commodity often tell us about the relative strength or weakness of the market itself. For example; the June 1993 Canola contract traded at a substantial premium to the November, 1993 contract up until May 1993. A perceived shortage of top quality canola following the frost of August 1992 resulted in 1992 canola values gaining on the 1993 contract positions. This relationship continued until it became apparent later in the marketing year that an adequate supply of canola was available to satisfy buyer’s needs in addition to farmers' requirements for cash flow prior to seeding a new crop. The spread relationship between the two different marketing years then reversed direction, as buyers and sellers focused their attention on the upcoming 1993/94 canola production prospects.
In situations such as this, caused by perceived tightness of stocks, the nearby months will usually rise faster than the distant months. This is referred to as a bull spread. In order to profit from this relationship you would buy the nearby futures contract and simultaneously sell the more distant contract. Conversely in situations where the near term supplies are in relative over abundance in relation to future supplies, the nearby months will usually fall faster than the distant months. A bearish approach to the market would be undertaken by entering a bear spread.
In order to profit from this relationship you would sell the nearby contract month and buy the distant contract month. By monitoring the relationship between the nearby and the distant months, you often will be provided with a lead indication as to whether the market will trend higher or lower.
Commodity spreads ( or straddles) measure the price difference between two different contracts, usually futures contracts. Spreads can also measure the difference between a cash contract and a futures contract ( referred to as the basis) or the price difference between two option contracts, or various combinations of the above. For the purpose of this section you will examine spreads from the context of the price difference between two different futures contracts.(see figure 6)
In the grain business the difference between two contract months of the same commodity ( ie., canola) represents the carrying charges or the cost of holding the commodity for a period of time. Carrying charges are determined by the cost of interest and storage when physical commodities are held in store. Grain traders will monitor spread relationships very closely as the relative difference between various contract positions will determine the handling margins or profitability of their involvement in marketing grain. When using spreads, the trader hopes to profit by changes in the spread (difference) between the two contracts . The trader is looking for either a widening or narrowing of the spread relationship over time. Spread trading is considered to be a less risky and often less expensive way in which to participate in the futures market. Margin requirements for spreads are generally lower than outright long or short positions, and whether the price increases or decreases the traders risk is limited to the change in the spread, since both a long and a short position are held at the same time. Since the risk is lower, so will be the potential for profit or loss. Spread trading is more complicated than outright trading and requires a higher degree of sophistication on the part of the trader. You will examine only briefly the application of spread trading to farm marketing management in this course. The purpose of this section is to familiarize yourself with the use of commodity spreads in forecasting market direction. By monitoring the relative strength between various contracts and between different markets, you will be better able to select the appropriate pricing and risk management strategies when developing your marketing plan.
Besides being used for spread trading, tracking the spread relationships between different contracts in the same market or in different markets can provide useful insights into future price direction. The relationships between the nearby and the distant months in the same commodity often tell us about the relative strength or weakness of the market itself. For example; the June 1993 Canola contract traded at a substantial premium to the November, 1993 contract up until May 1993. A perceived shortage of top quality canola following the frost of August 1992 resulted in 1992 canola values gaining on the 1993 contract positions. This relationship continued until it became apparent later in the marketing year that an adequate supply of canola was available to satisfy buyer’s needs in addition to farmers' requirements for cash flow prior to seeding a new crop. The spread relationship between the two different marketing years then reversed direction, as buyers and sellers focused their attention on the upcoming 1993/94 canola production prospects.
In situations such as this, caused by perceived tightness of stocks, the nearby months will usually rise faster than the distant months. This is referred to as a bull spread. In order to profit from this relationship you would buy the nearby futures contract and simultaneously sell the more distant contract. Conversely in situations where the near term supplies are in relative over abundance in relation to future supplies, the nearby months will usually fall faster than the distant months. A bearish approach to the market would be undertaken by entering a bear spread.
In order to profit from this relationship you would sell the nearby contract month and buy the distant contract month. By monitoring the relationship between the nearby and the distant months, you often will be provided with a lead indication as to whether the market will trend higher or lower.
Fleursdumal
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Phantom of the Pits
by Art Simpson
Chapter 2 - Your Book
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALS - Phantom, can you remember the first advice you ever heard from another trader?
POP - No, I can't ever remember any advice. I don't mean to be ungrateful to all my many friends and colleges but I really don't remember any advice. In fact that is part of the reason I want to pay a debt to other traders.
I don't think anyone ever gives much advice because they feel it is putting them at a disadvantage. Of course it isn't the case but most traders behavior is determined early in their lives. That is why I feel behavior modification is critical.
ALS - I can see the critics already starting to line up to point out your big point of trading is behavior modification! Are we going to write an entire book on behavior modification? If so we will have to give this book away. Not only that but also what creditability does Phantom of the Pits have to anyone?
POP - Nothing would please me more than to give the books away. Or perhaps we could ask Futures Magazine to sponsor it for all the publicity they would receive. Accurate insight is what we are going to give every trader who reads this book.
It isn't enough to point out requirements. I want to give them guidelines so they can chose their own destiny.
ALS - Sort of like change your thoughts and you change your destiny, huh?
POP - This is exactly where we want to be. No promises, no requirements, no false hopes and no undue influences. Exactly the way it should be. Traders must make their own millions. I only need to be responsible for keeping them in the game forever.
ALS - Phantom, I don't make my money from writing so how about making it a little easier in writing this book for me. Guide me a little in what you want to convey to the traders in this book.
POP - I have an idea, which presented itself, when I viewed some of the other trader's questions on the forum I frequent. They don't know the important questions other than from their own experiences in trading.
Eventually they will come upon all of the situations I want to protect them from getting into. However, I don't want to give specific trading advise or any outdated information like I wrote in some of my documentation of the 70's.
Why don't we call upon the traders from the forum to guide us in the knowledge they are seeking for this book?
ALS - Great idea! I am impressed with several traders but this one Trader I know he will respond. But we don't want to exclude any of the others traders so I guess we kind of make them Phantom of the Pits Too!
POP - I like the idea. No losses to throw out is what I enjoy.
ALS - Ok again! You Win! You are right!
POP - Funny, I have had years to hear what you just said. I really don't hear that anymore. I mean you win and you're right. Trading is not those statements. A trained trader understands success as you lose well and you're wrong small. Trading is called coming out on the small loser's side and being rewarded with knowing how good you have been wrong.
It requires a balanced life to sustain the meanness of the markets. Traders never plan for the bad days and there are bad days. It is when it affects their lives that they must make a new choice. Either change their behavior or go down in defeat.
ALS - There's our subject again. Are we going to get tired of hearing the truth of trading?
POP - Traders have a choice. Either face the truth of trading or look for the nearest exit. Speaking of facing the truth, I don't know what your plans are but I have a mind for a good 2 inch steak served up for dinner. Chow for now!
ALS - You ever eat crow?
POP - Surprisingly in my early years no but in my mid years yes. I think that's what you meant.
"Either face the truth of trading or look for the nearest exit."
---POP
by Art Simpson
Chapter 2 - Your Book
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALS - Phantom, can you remember the first advice you ever heard from another trader?
POP - No, I can't ever remember any advice. I don't mean to be ungrateful to all my many friends and colleges but I really don't remember any advice. In fact that is part of the reason I want to pay a debt to other traders.
I don't think anyone ever gives much advice because they feel it is putting them at a disadvantage. Of course it isn't the case but most traders behavior is determined early in their lives. That is why I feel behavior modification is critical.
ALS - I can see the critics already starting to line up to point out your big point of trading is behavior modification! Are we going to write an entire book on behavior modification? If so we will have to give this book away. Not only that but also what creditability does Phantom of the Pits have to anyone?
POP - Nothing would please me more than to give the books away. Or perhaps we could ask Futures Magazine to sponsor it for all the publicity they would receive. Accurate insight is what we are going to give every trader who reads this book.
It isn't enough to point out requirements. I want to give them guidelines so they can chose their own destiny.
ALS - Sort of like change your thoughts and you change your destiny, huh?
POP - This is exactly where we want to be. No promises, no requirements, no false hopes and no undue influences. Exactly the way it should be. Traders must make their own millions. I only need to be responsible for keeping them in the game forever.
ALS - Phantom, I don't make my money from writing so how about making it a little easier in writing this book for me. Guide me a little in what you want to convey to the traders in this book.
POP - I have an idea, which presented itself, when I viewed some of the other trader's questions on the forum I frequent. They don't know the important questions other than from their own experiences in trading.
Eventually they will come upon all of the situations I want to protect them from getting into. However, I don't want to give specific trading advise or any outdated information like I wrote in some of my documentation of the 70's.
Why don't we call upon the traders from the forum to guide us in the knowledge they are seeking for this book?
ALS - Great idea! I am impressed with several traders but this one Trader I know he will respond. But we don't want to exclude any of the others traders so I guess we kind of make them Phantom of the Pits Too!
POP - I like the idea. No losses to throw out is what I enjoy.
ALS - Ok again! You Win! You are right!
POP - Funny, I have had years to hear what you just said. I really don't hear that anymore. I mean you win and you're right. Trading is not those statements. A trained trader understands success as you lose well and you're wrong small. Trading is called coming out on the small loser's side and being rewarded with knowing how good you have been wrong.
It requires a balanced life to sustain the meanness of the markets. Traders never plan for the bad days and there are bad days. It is when it affects their lives that they must make a new choice. Either change their behavior or go down in defeat.
ALS - There's our subject again. Are we going to get tired of hearing the truth of trading?
POP - Traders have a choice. Either face the truth of trading or look for the nearest exit. Speaking of facing the truth, I don't know what your plans are but I have a mind for a good 2 inch steak served up for dinner. Chow for now!
ALS - You ever eat crow?
POP - Surprisingly in my early years no but in my mid years yes. I think that's what you meant.
"Either face the truth of trading or look for the nearest exit."
---POP
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
link dal quale, tramite live cams , si può assistere alle contrattazioni che si svolgono nelle fosse del BM&F , Brazilian Mercantile& Future Exchange di SaoPaolo:
http://www.bmf.com.br/pages/Cameras2/CameraIng.asp?iCamera=2
http://www.bmf.com.br/pages/Cameras2/CameraIng.asp?iCamera=2
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Participants
BROKERS
Representatives of the Commodities Brokerage Houses. They wear a yellow badge.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCALS
Individuals authorized to trade for their own account. They wear a blue badge.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RUNNERS
Employees of Commodities Brokerage Houses or Locals who are responsible for filling in the trading cards that will be registered into the system. They wear a red badge and jacket. The latter has a large yellow patch on the back, which displays the name and number of the Commodities Brokerage House or Local.
Ecco le "pettorine"
BROKERS
Representatives of the Commodities Brokerage Houses. They wear a yellow badge.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCALS
Individuals authorized to trade for their own account. They wear a blue badge.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RUNNERS
Employees of Commodities Brokerage Houses or Locals who are responsible for filling in the trading cards that will be registered into the system. They wear a red badge and jacket. The latter has a large yellow patch on the back, which displays the name and number of the Commodities Brokerage House or Local.
Ecco le "pettorine"
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Giornata piatta finita in negativo ma con minimo finale cmq superiore al minimo settimanale di lunedì, i farmers brasileri si preparano per il diluvio atteso per domani
CSCE coffee futures end lower
NEW YORK (December 11 2002) : CSCE coffee ended lower Tuesday as selling by funds and producers weighed on prices despite buying by roasters and scattered bottom-picking by speculators even with talk of improvement to the Brazilian crop, traders said.
"We heard from the co-operatives we talk to that the flowerings went better than advertised and majority of the trees are in good shape so March is at the lower end of a ten cent range now," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group referring to Brazil's 2003/04 crop.
The nearby March coffee ended down 0.65 cent at 65.65 cents a lb after trading in a narrow 65.50-66.25 range.
May settled down 0.50 cent at 68.05 cents. Spot December coffee slipped 0.30 cent to 61.90 cents.
There were 25 delivery notices Tuesday against the December contract, raising the cumulative total to 3,447 notices.
The last trading day for December futures is Dec 17 and open interest is down to just 249 contracts.
The last trading day for the January 2003 coffee options is Friday, December 13.
"Coffee might be at the lower end of a range, but it has to prove that it can work higher.
Roasters are not chasing this market," said one commission broker.
In fundamental news, top producer Brazil exported 2.61 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in November, up 8.1 percent from the 2.41 million bags shipped in the same month a year ago, the Council of Green Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafe) said on Tuesday.
In other news, Nicaraguan coffee exports almost tripled in November to 61,162 46-kg bags from November 2001, the country's export authority (Cetrex) said on Tuesday. Dealers were not surprised by the figures.
"The number was expected. There has been a lot coming from Nicaragua and a lot is coming to the board," said a broker referring to beans being certified for delivery against the New York contract.
Brokers are trying to hone their estimates of the 2003/04 Brazilian coffee crop as they talk to exporters and traders in Brazil.
The Brazilian government is due to put out its first forecast for the upcoming 2003/04 crop next week while a USDA forecast is not expected until June.
Sources have suggested a range of 25 to 35 million 60-kg bags, but the bulk of these unofficial guesses are clustered in the 30-33 million bag area.
Independent forecaster Meteorlogix on Tuesday predicted episodes of scattered to widely scattered light showers the next 24-48 hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were also seen for Thursday and Friday with conditions drying out for the weekend.
Local Brazilian meteorologist Somar on Tuesday in a daily report forecast heavy rain in Brazil's major coffee growing areas of south Minas and the Minas Cerrado.
Estimated volume came to only 6,879 lots Tuesday as the market stayed in a tight range compared to the official report of 13,441 lots traded Monday.
Call volume slowed to an estimated 2,847 lots and put options amounted to 1,685 lots.
Open interest plunged 2,993 contracts to 69,876 lots.
"The open interest was expected to get cut with the heavy liquidation by the funds on Friday," said one broker.
Technicians peg support for March at 65.10 cents, Monday's low, with resistance at 66.70/90 and then 67.30 cents.-Reuters
Brazilian Minas coffee farms set for deluge
RIO DE JANEIRO (December 11 2002) : Heavy rain is forecast on Thursday in Brazil's major coffee growing areas of south Minas and the Minas Cerrado, said local meteorologist Somar.
In a daily report, Somar said on Tuesday that coffee farms in the extreme north of neighbouring Sao Paulo state would also be soaked and that rain would arrive in southern Sao Paulo and Parana states on Wednesday.
"The longer range forecast shows heavy rain in the south-east until November 23," Somar said.
It said another cool weather front is expected to arrive in Brazil's south-eastern coffee belt next week and bring widespread rain.
Regular seasonal rain returned to most coffee areas in November following an unusually dry October which caused poor flowering and increased stress on trees exhausted after a huge crop this year.
But agronomists say it will not help next year's crop which farmers estimate could be between 40 and 70 percent lower than this year's officially estimated 45 million 60-kg bags.
A 20 percent fall in coffee output in 2003 would be normal due to the downturn in coffee's biennial production.
The Brazilian government is due to issue a preliminary forecast for the 2003-04 crop in the second half of December.
Local analysts Safras e Mercado forecast on Friday that the 2003 crop could fall to between 31.22 million and 33.97 million bags from a revised 50.15 million bags in 2002-03.
It compares with trade forecasts of 30 to 35 million bags.
The USDA agriculture attache on November 27 revised up his Brazilian coffee crop estimate 10 percent to a record 51.6 million bags in 2002-03 due to higher than expected yields and an increase in the coffee tree inventory.
The following table details rainfall in key Brazilian coffee districts during the past three days.
Rainfall is measured in millimetres. The table also gives the monthly total to December 9.
=============================================== Last 3 Dec Dec Variation days 1-9 Avg pct===============================================Londrina 28 70 163 -57Maringa 28 70 163 -57Marilia 26 120 160 -24President Prudente 26 120 160 -24Franca 1 20 270 -92Mocaca 33 60 264 -77Uberlandia 17 31 254 -87Patrocinio 0 19 192 -90Pocos de Caldas 46 73 283 -74Manhuacu 31 33 227 -85Colatina 14 14 197 -92Linhares 14 14 197 -92Alegre 26 28 205 -86Vitoria da Conquista 16 17 121 -86Cacoal 17 60 276 -78===============================================
CSCE coffee futures end lower
NEW YORK (December 11 2002) : CSCE coffee ended lower Tuesday as selling by funds and producers weighed on prices despite buying by roasters and scattered bottom-picking by speculators even with talk of improvement to the Brazilian crop, traders said.
"We heard from the co-operatives we talk to that the flowerings went better than advertised and majority of the trees are in good shape so March is at the lower end of a ten cent range now," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group referring to Brazil's 2003/04 crop.
The nearby March coffee ended down 0.65 cent at 65.65 cents a lb after trading in a narrow 65.50-66.25 range.
May settled down 0.50 cent at 68.05 cents. Spot December coffee slipped 0.30 cent to 61.90 cents.
There were 25 delivery notices Tuesday against the December contract, raising the cumulative total to 3,447 notices.
The last trading day for December futures is Dec 17 and open interest is down to just 249 contracts.
The last trading day for the January 2003 coffee options is Friday, December 13.
"Coffee might be at the lower end of a range, but it has to prove that it can work higher.
Roasters are not chasing this market," said one commission broker.
In fundamental news, top producer Brazil exported 2.61 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in November, up 8.1 percent from the 2.41 million bags shipped in the same month a year ago, the Council of Green Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafe) said on Tuesday.
In other news, Nicaraguan coffee exports almost tripled in November to 61,162 46-kg bags from November 2001, the country's export authority (Cetrex) said on Tuesday. Dealers were not surprised by the figures.
"The number was expected. There has been a lot coming from Nicaragua and a lot is coming to the board," said a broker referring to beans being certified for delivery against the New York contract.
Brokers are trying to hone their estimates of the 2003/04 Brazilian coffee crop as they talk to exporters and traders in Brazil.
The Brazilian government is due to put out its first forecast for the upcoming 2003/04 crop next week while a USDA forecast is not expected until June.
Sources have suggested a range of 25 to 35 million 60-kg bags, but the bulk of these unofficial guesses are clustered in the 30-33 million bag area.
Independent forecaster Meteorlogix on Tuesday predicted episodes of scattered to widely scattered light showers the next 24-48 hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were also seen for Thursday and Friday with conditions drying out for the weekend.
Local Brazilian meteorologist Somar on Tuesday in a daily report forecast heavy rain in Brazil's major coffee growing areas of south Minas and the Minas Cerrado.
Estimated volume came to only 6,879 lots Tuesday as the market stayed in a tight range compared to the official report of 13,441 lots traded Monday.
Call volume slowed to an estimated 2,847 lots and put options amounted to 1,685 lots.
Open interest plunged 2,993 contracts to 69,876 lots.
"The open interest was expected to get cut with the heavy liquidation by the funds on Friday," said one broker.
Technicians peg support for March at 65.10 cents, Monday's low, with resistance at 66.70/90 and then 67.30 cents.-Reuters
Brazilian Minas coffee farms set for deluge
RIO DE JANEIRO (December 11 2002) : Heavy rain is forecast on Thursday in Brazil's major coffee growing areas of south Minas and the Minas Cerrado, said local meteorologist Somar.
In a daily report, Somar said on Tuesday that coffee farms in the extreme north of neighbouring Sao Paulo state would also be soaked and that rain would arrive in southern Sao Paulo and Parana states on Wednesday.
"The longer range forecast shows heavy rain in the south-east until November 23," Somar said.
It said another cool weather front is expected to arrive in Brazil's south-eastern coffee belt next week and bring widespread rain.
Regular seasonal rain returned to most coffee areas in November following an unusually dry October which caused poor flowering and increased stress on trees exhausted after a huge crop this year.
But agronomists say it will not help next year's crop which farmers estimate could be between 40 and 70 percent lower than this year's officially estimated 45 million 60-kg bags.
A 20 percent fall in coffee output in 2003 would be normal due to the downturn in coffee's biennial production.
The Brazilian government is due to issue a preliminary forecast for the 2003-04 crop in the second half of December.
Local analysts Safras e Mercado forecast on Friday that the 2003 crop could fall to between 31.22 million and 33.97 million bags from a revised 50.15 million bags in 2002-03.
It compares with trade forecasts of 30 to 35 million bags.
The USDA agriculture attache on November 27 revised up his Brazilian coffee crop estimate 10 percent to a record 51.6 million bags in 2002-03 due to higher than expected yields and an increase in the coffee tree inventory.
The following table details rainfall in key Brazilian coffee districts during the past three days.
Rainfall is measured in millimetres. The table also gives the monthly total to December 9.
=============================================== Last 3 Dec Dec Variation days 1-9 Avg pct===============================================Londrina 28 70 163 -57Maringa 28 70 163 -57Marilia 26 120 160 -24President Prudente 26 120 160 -24Franca 1 20 270 -92Mocaca 33 60 264 -77Uberlandia 17 31 254 -87Patrocinio 0 19 192 -90Pocos de Caldas 46 73 283 -74Manhuacu 31 33 227 -85Colatina 14 14 197 -92Linhares 14 14 197 -92Alegre 26 28 205 -86Vitoria da Conquista 16 17 121 -86Cacoal 17 60 276 -78===============================================
