Commodities KC Arabica Coffee C

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La chiusura alta in extremis ierisera di Londra e la scadenza delle opzioni febbraio potrebbe portare un pò di movimento oggi al NYBOT, dopo che ieri fondi e locals da una parte e roasters e brasiliani in sostegno sotto i 62,5cents, si son fronteggiati mantenendo pressocchè invariato il prezzo del contratto chiave marzo

ODJ CSCE Coffee Review: Narrowly Mixed; Industry Buying Curbs Slide
-- Active Buying From Brazil On Session Lows

By Susan Buchanan
New York, Jan. 9 (OsterDowJones) - Arabica coffee futures ended weaker in
the front months on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange Thursday and steady to
higher in later contracts. A fund-led slide to 3-day lows ran into Brazilian
buying.
Mar settled 15 points lower at 62.70c a pound, and May ended down 5 points
at 65.35c.
"Funds and locals pushed it down, but Brazil and others had very good Mar
buying below 62.50c," a floor broker said. "Locals covered, but funds tried to
keep pressure on with their selling.
"There was enough buying however to lift Mar close to unchanged at the
end."
Mar rose 85 points in early action, before fund selling capped the move.
Prices retreated, breaking recent suport at 62.50c and losing 75 points to
62.10c. A flurry of buying from Brazil, industry, and other funds curbed the
decline.
Futures volume was estimated at 7,206 lots. In the options ring, 1,807
calls and 1,575 puts traded.
"London closed higher today, and tomorrow should be interesting,
especially with the Feb options expiring here," the floor broker said. "Mar
could trade anywhere from 62.50c to 65.00c tomorrow."
Feb options expire on the close.
"If Mar advances, origins have selling between 64.00c and 65.00c in Mar,"
the broker continued. "But if we work through that or it's removed, there's a
gap at 65.00c to 65.50c."
In Brazil, growers have done little selling recently, with many waiting
for prices to rebound to last November's levels. Foreign roasters bought
Brazilian beans heavily in late 2002 and have been reluctant to buy more,
particularly as the real fluctuates.
The real eased Thursday after surging over 7% in the first four sessions
of 2003 on confidence in Brazil's new president, Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva.
Investors are now worrying about higher oil prices, however.
Showers in central Brazil are tapering Thursday and Friday, according to
Global Weather Services.
Brazilian officials auction 20,000 60-kilogram bags of green stocks next
Wednesday.
Chart support for CSCE Mar lies at 62.00c, 60.75c, 60.50c, and 60.25c to
60.00c, traders said. Resistance is found at 63.70c, 64.25c, 64.50c, and a gap
at 65.00c to 65.50c.

CSCE Change Range Liffe Change
Mar 62.70 dn 0.15 62.10-63.70 Jan 808 up 9
May 65.35 dn 0.05 64.80-65.90 Mar 825 up 10

---
Susan Buchanan




ODJ GWS Weekly Softs Impact




Jan 09, 2003 (ODJ via COMTEX) -- -- Brazil Coffee Regions See Good Summer Weather; Minor Cocoa Harvest Delays -- Colombian Coffee Growers Experience Few Setbacks To Ongoing Harvest -- Light Showers In W African Sahel Will Do Little To Slow Cocoa Harvest -- Wet Weather In Indonesia, Malaysia To Help Flowering Coffee Trees

Kansas City, Jan. 9 (GWS) -

EST CROP 10DAY OUTLOOK
STAGE COND TEMP--PRECIP COMMENTS
BRAZIL
Coffee(18%) Bud G N/B--N/A Plenty Of Moisture For Crop
Cocoa(7%)
Main Crop Harv F/G B --N/A Light Showers To Slow Harvest
Mid Crop Deve G B --N/A Beneficial Rains In Southern Fields
Sugarcane(27%)
NE Region Plnt/Harv F/P N/A-- B Dry Conditions Continue In Region
Center-South Deve G N/B--A/N Ample Moisture, Rain Keep Crop Fine

COLOMBIA
Coffee(9%) Harv G B --N/A Light Rains To Create Minor Delays

MEXICO
Coffee(5%) Harv F/P B --A/N Wet Week Ahead To Slow Harvest
Sugarcane(4%) Plnt/Harv F/G B --A/N Fieldwork Delays More Frequent

IVORY COAST/GHANA/NIGERIA Cocoa(63%)

Main Crop Harv G B/N-- A Minimal Harvest Delays From Rain
Mid Crop Flow/Deve F B/N-- A Light Rains Expected In Many Areas

ETHIOPIA/UGANDA
Coffee(6%) Harv F B -- B Good Harvest Weather Continues

INDIA/PAKISTAN
Sugarcane(26%) Plnt/Harv G N -- B Dry Weather Favors Fieldwork

INDONESIA/MALAYSIA
Coffee(7%) Harv/Flow F B -- A Rains Help Flowering Crop
Cocoa(8%) Harv G B -- A Harvest Delays This Week From Rains

VIETNAM
Coffee(9%) Harv F/G B --N/A Drier Conditions Good For Harvest

THAILAND
Sugarcane(4%) Plant G/E B -- B Farmers See Good Planting Weather

GERMANY/POLAND/ITALY/FRANCE
Sugarbeets(41%) Done - B/N-- A Abnormal Cold Lingers Into Weekend

U.S.
Sugarbeets(10%) Done - A -- A Warmer, Wetter Weather Moves In

CIS/TURKEY
Sugarbeets(12%) Done - A/N--A/N 2002 Season Finished Across Region

CHINA
Sugarbeets(5%) Done - B -- B Cold, Dry Air Keeps Crop Dormant

Percentages of average region total world crop production from 1997-2001 listed.

Abbreviation Key: E-Excellent G-Good F-Fair
P-Poor VP-Very Poor - Crop Not In Ground
A-Above Norm B-Below Norm N-Near Normal
MA-Much Above MB-Much Below Deve-Developing
Harv-Harvest Fill-Filling Repr-Reproducing
Flow-Flowering Matu-Maturing Ripe-Ripening
EST-Estimated COND-Condition

--- Jeff Thompson, GWS meteorologist, (913) 322-5176 [email protected]

 

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Come si era ipotizzato, complice la scadenza delle opzioni febbraio, venerdì si è assistito a una bella corsa del KC: dopo una puntata sui 62,60 hanno iniziato a fioccare gli acquisti e i fondi hanno dovuto ricoprire i loro short superati i 64 e poi i 64,70 cents; si è quindi entrati nel gap fino a coprirlo parzialmente. I produttori nn sono ancora visti in vendita aggressiva, i brasiliani e i colombiani probabilmente aspettano livelli più alti di un paio di cents

CSCE coffee ends at one-month high on speculative buying
NEW YORK (January 11 2003) : CSCE coffee futures shot to one-month highs on Friday on speculative buying sparked by a break above chart resistance that ignited pre-placed buy orders after weeks of sideways trading, dealers said.

"It was mostly spec buying today, with light trade selling at the very top today, which, up another cent, would be quite heavy," said Jim Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in St. Petersburg, Florida.

March arabica coffee rose 2.35 cents, or 3.75 percent, to 65.05 cents a pound, its highest close since December 10, after trading 62.80-65.25 cents. May futures also gained 2.35 cents to end at 67.70 cents, with later delivery months climbing 2.10-2.35 cents.

Prices bounced off lows in the 62.00-62.50 cents area this week after a recent storm of fund sales dried up and players began nudging prices higher, though producer selling above the market was likely to cap rallies, traders said.

One New York desk broker said speculative buying triggered buy stops at midsession at around 64.00-64.25 cents and 64.70 cents before trade pressure emerged at higher prices.

Cordier added he believes a round of Brazilian and Colombian selling looms up at 65.50-66.00 cents on the March contract. A technical gap needs to be filled at 65.50 cents, he added.

In fundamental features, market watchers see a near-term oversupply of coffee, although prospects for a reduced Brazilian 2003-04 crop and a modest Central American harvest could prevent aggressive selling.

"There has been little news," Cordier said. "We had ample rains recently in the coffee belt and it was getting too wet, but now we've got a nice drying period coming (in Brazil) and weather looks clear for the next four or five days."

Coffee sales from Brazil have been minimal this week as the real currency was propped by optimism over the new administration of leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Brazil has less incentive to sell coffee when the currency is strong as this means lower revenues in local terms.

In the United States, certified coffee stocks rose 7,848 60-kg bags to 2,730,089 bags as of January 8, according to CSCE.

There were 77,793 bags pending grading, while 12,719 bags were graded and 4,288 bags passed exchange approval.

Brokers peg support in CSCE March coffee at 62.70, 62.50 and 62.10 cents, with resistance at 65.50 and 66.00 cents.

Estimated final volume was 12,991 lots, versus Thursday's official tally of 7,206 contracts.

Open interest rose 446 lots to 68,382 lots of January 10

 

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Serie di 3 studi di Brian Trout

 

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ODJ CFTC Commitments: CSCE Coffee C Futures-Jan 10
COFFEE C - COFFEE,SUGAR AND COCOA EXCHANGE
REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 01/07/03 |
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 68,571
COMMITMENTS
15,420 13,870 7,610 31,633 41,525 54,663 63,005 13,908 5,566

CHANGES FROM 12/31/02 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -817)
158 58 -519 -1,545 562 -1,906 101 1,089 -918

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
22.5 20.2 11.1 46.1 60.6 79.7 91.9 20.3 8.1

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 237)
93 33 39 94 74 201 135

 

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Le commodities da www.usemlab.com

Esaminiamo in questa parte le evoluzioni che hanno caratterizzato i diversi mercati, azionario, obbligazionario, immobiliare e delle commodities. Partiamo proprio da queste ultime, visto che la loro quotazione riflette direttamente il valore del dollaro.

Ripresentiamo ancora una volta il grafico del CRB, un mercato bullish in chiaro trend rialzista, e quello del Dollar Index, il cui trend ribassista, dopo un pausa di consolidamento durata da luglio a dicembre, ha rotto di recente importanti supporti ed è diretto verso nuovi minimi.

Indice CRB



Fonte: Bloomberg

Dollar Index



Fonte: Bloomberg

Ecco in percentuale anche l’aumento percentuale delle 17 commodities comprese nel CRB da inizio anno alla chiusura del 27 dicembre:


Commodity Prezzo al 27/12/02 2002 % Change
Natural Gas $4.988 per million Btu + 94
Heating Oil 90.79 cents a gallon + 65
Crude Oil $32.72 a barrel + 65
Cocoa $2,018 a metric ton + 54
Cotton 51.8 cents a pound + 46
Soybeans $5.665 a bushel + 34
Coffee 61.35 cents a pound + 33
Gold $349.70 an ounce + 25
Platinum $588.60 an ounce + 21
Wheat $3.33 a bushel + 15
Corn $2.3975 a bushel + 15
Cattle 78.725 cents a pound + 11
Copper 70.65 cents a pound + 8.2
Orange Juice 95.5 cents a pound + 7.2
Silver $4.723 an ounce + 2.9
Sugar 7.43 cents a pound + 0.5
Hogs 53.5 cents a pound - 6.2

Dopo tutte le diverse strade prese dalla massa monetaria, azioni, obbligazioni, immobili, la perdita di potere di acquisto del dollaro nei confronti delle materie prime e delle altre valute sta emergendo finalmente come il più chiaro segnale della eccessiva manipolazione dell’offerta di moneta da parte della banca centrale americana.

A nostro avviso si tratta di un trend che continuerà anche nel corso del 2003. Difficile stabilire come il prezzo delle materie prime potrebbe riflettersi nell’aumento dei prezzi al consumo. Finchè le società non sono in grado di fare leva sul proprio potere di fissare i prezzi, schiacciati dall’aumento della produttività e dalle spinte deflazionistiche legate alla fase di debolezza economica, un aumento dei prezzi delle materie prime si traduce prevalentemente in una compressione dei margini operativi e quindi in minori utili.

 

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Giornata di prese di profitto, quella di ieri, con i locals subito in vendita fino ai 64 cents dove i fondi hanno preso a comprare fino a portare il marzo03 ai nuovi massimi relativi di 65,70 , livello al quale sono scattate nuove prese di beneficio, nonostante altri buy stops siano in essere sui 66 cents. I roasters americani e i brasiliani son stati visti assenti dal mercato. i fondi stante il COT di venerdì hanno una posizione long netta sui futures di 1550, mentre sono net short 1571 se si considerano futures e opzioni insieme.

ODJ REPEAT: CSCE Coffee Review: Eases After Filling Overhead Gap
13/01/03

-- A Second Gap In Mar Chart Eyed
-- Funds Net Short 1,571 Lots Of Futures And Options Last Tues.

By Susan Buchanan
New York, Jan. 13 (OsterDowJones) - Arabica coffee futures ended slightly
weaker on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange Monday after a surge to new 5-
week highs took Mar through an overhead chart gap.
Mar settled 15 points lower at 64.90c a pound, and May closed down 15
points at 67.55c.
"Locals were early sellers and there was profit taking after Friday's
rally," a floor broker said. "But industry buying supported Mar at
64.00c, and
locals covered and went long."
Speculators bought, and stops were touched as Mar scaled Friday's high at
65.25c, he continued. Mar filled the gap to 65.50c.
More buy stops lay above 65.50c, but "origins had selling there, though
not heavy," the broker said. "Locals got out of longs at the end."
Mar climbed 65 points to 65.70c in late action, before origin selling
clipped the move.
Futures volume was estimated at 8,580 lots. In the options ring, 2,540
calls and 2,594 puts traded.
Another overhead gap in Mar at 66.70c to 66.90c will likely be filled,
while the chart shows no downside gaps, the floor broker observed. Fund shorts
will have to cover if the market continues to rise against them.
Brazilian daily coffee export revenues averaged $5.442 million, free on
board, from Jan. 1-12, well above $3.8 million in all of January 2002, the
foreign trade secretariat (Secex) reported Monday.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian real firmed early Monday, and recent strength has
dampened grower sales.
An area from coastal Sao Paulo into central Minas Gerais, Brazil, received
locally heavy rain of 55 to 103 mm over the weekend, with coverage of 85%.
Mudslides were reported near Rio de Janiero last week.
Brazil's new crop (2003-04) should be at least one-third smaller than the
last crop of more than 50 million bags based on the bearing cycle and dry
weather earlier, according to private forecasters.
Mexican exports in October-December 2002, the first quarter of the 2002-03
marketing year, totaled 322,145 bags, below 567,291 bags in the same period of
the previous year. The Mexican Coffee Council puts the 2002-03 harvest at 4.0
million 60-kilogram bags, down 4.8% on the year.
Funds stood net long 1,550 lots of futures last Tuesday, but were net
short 1,571 lots of futures and options combined, Friday's Commitments of
Traders showed.
Chart support for CSCE Mar lies at 64.00c, 63.50c, 63.00c, 62.50c and
62.00c, while resistance is found at 65.70c, 66.00c, and a gap at 66.70c to
66.90c, traders said.

CSCE Change Range Liffe Change
Mar 64.90 dn 0.15 64.00-65.70 Jan 810 dn 2
May 67.55 dn 0.15 66.70-68.25 Mar 828 dn 1

---
Susan Buchanan, OsterDowJones

 

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per il secondo giorno tradingrange tra 64 e 65 cents, con i fondi in acquisto sui minimi e origins e altri speculatori di breve a vendere sulla parte alta del range, roaster e produttori alla finestra. Sul Liffe ancora si aspettano vendite più aggressive da parte dei Vietnamiti, che si dice potrebbero aspettare la fine della festività del Tet , per entrare più decisi sul mercato. Sul chart del KCH03 la 40-day moving average, usata da alcuni fondi per il trading, taglia a 65,5cents. Piogge previste su gran parte delle aree coltivate a caffè del Brasil.

CSCE coffee ends mostly unchanged in narrow range
NEW YORK (January 15 2003) : CSCE coffee futures closed mostly unchanged on Tuesday as buying by commodity funds was evenly balanced by selling from the trade and short-term speculative accounts, brokers said.

"The producers were not really involved today, and the roasters are not interested in paying up so the main players are managed money guys on buying on dips and the trade and specs selling on the little rallies," said one commission house broker.

Benchmark March arabica coffee settled unchanged at 64.90 cents a lb, after trading from 63.80 cents to 65 cents.

Traders found little news to inspire business and roasters appear content with adequate forward coverage, dealers said.

"The market is just treading water. It's stuck in a range for now," said one local trader.

May futures also closed unchanged at 67.55 cents.

The back months closed from 0.05 cent lower to 0.10 cent higher.

Top producer and exporter Brazil, which has a 30 percent market share, exported a record 25.4 million 60-kg bags of coffee in 2002, up 21 percent from the 21 million bags exported in 2001, according to the Council of Green Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafe).

"It's old news, but I think it is basically bearish as it reminds everyone that there is no shortage of coffee," said one softs analyst.

The coffee market continues to dominated by a global oversupply of coffee, although prospects for a reduced Brazilian 2003/04 crop lent support to prices during November as hot, dry weather in Brazil reduced production ideas.

Brazil's currency, the real, moved higher on news local companies were raising cash abroad, which will boost the inflow of dollars to the market. The real firmed to 3.256 per dollar.

Brazil has less incentive to sell coffee when the currency is strong because it means lower revenues in local terms.

Technical analysts peg support in CSCE March coffee at 63.80 cents with resistance at 65.70 and 66.70 cents.

The 40-day moving average, used by some funds for trading signals, intersects at 65.50 cents.

Estimated final volume was 6,764 lots compared with Monday's official tally of 8,580 contracts.

In the neighbouring options ring, there were an estimated 2,893 calls traded and 2,855 puts options. Open interest declined 404 lots to 67,947 lots of Monday.-Reuters

Showers cover Brazil's Minas Gerais coffee: Somar
RIO DE JANEIRO (January 15 2003) : South-east Brazil will be wet this week, especially in the country's No 1 coffee growing state of Minas Gerais, local meteorologist Somar said on Tuesday.

"Unstable weather will remain in the south-east, producing showers in coffee areas, notably in Minas Gerais," Somar said in a daily weather report.

There will also be showers in Sao Paulo and Parana states to the south of Minas Gerais.

Somar said that the weather will remain showery until the end of January.

"Cold weather fronts will pass rapidly over southern areas, causing unsettled weather," Somar said, adding that showers will be less frequent in Parana.

The table details rainfall in key Brazilian coffee districts during the past three days.

Rainfall is measured in millimetres and also gives the monthly total to January 13.

=========================================== Last 3 Jan Jan Var days 1-13 Avg pct===========================================Londrina 45 136 207 -34Maringa 45 136 207 -34Marilia 49 140 206 -32President Prudente 49 140 206 -32Franca 16 156 256 -39Mocaca 44 181 287 -36Uberlandia 18 191 269 -28Patrocinio 24 248 254 - 2Pocos de Caldas 49 169 309 -45Manhuacu 78 249 221 +12Colatina 6 72 172 -58Linhares 6 72 172 -58Alegre 32 135 178 -24Vitoria da Conquista 2 2 84 -97Cacoal 3 162 276 -41===========================================

 

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Posto parte di una lunga intervista a Bill Murphy presa da Financialsense online: nella prima parte si parla della situazione del caffè e dell'orange juice, a seguire dell'oro e di WS. Se a qualcuno interessa leggerla tutta la posto integralmente più tardi.

JIM PUPLAVA: Joining me on the program is Bill Murphy. He is chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) and he’s also purveyor of his own website called LeMetropoleCafe.com, an investment news site that is one of the best on the web today. He comes from a long background on Wall Street working for various firms, specializing in commodities with Merrill Lynch, Shearson Hayden Stone and Drexel Burnham before starting his own brokerage firm. Bill, welcome back to the program.

BILL MURPHY: Great to be back, Jim.

JIM: Bill, before we get to the topic of gold that is dear to us, I want to talk about some basic fundamentals of economics. I want to start our discussion with commodities which have been rising. The CRB Index had a nice 20 percent run up last year. But before we get to that, let’s talk about commodities such as orange juice and coffee.

Now if we were in a situation over the last, let’s say, ten or twelve years -- where every single year the demand for coffee has grown because we have more Starbucks and coffee cafés and orange juice demand keeps going up because people are eating healthier diets -- but each year this demand goes up and the supply goes down. So, we’re running a deficit. What would most people expect? Most people, I would say, would think that the price of that commodity would rise in value. Which indeed it has.

BILL: That’s right. The price needs to rise to bring the market into equilibrium.

JIM: But in the case of a commodity, where you have rising demand and diminishing supply, for that price to decline successively well over a decade, wouldn’t that be considered unnatural?



BILL: Oh, it’s very unnatural. Then it means that when you get down to certain prices, people can’t make any money growing oranges and coffee. They get discouraged as it’s a losing money proposition. So the supply situation worsens, because they go out of business or they don’t plant any more orange trees or coffee trees or bushes, and the supply then tends to get even worse.

JIM: And let’s suppose that the world wakes up one day and finds out that we just don’t have enough coffee beans to meet demand. There is a huge supply deficit and we don’t have enough orange trees planted to make enough oranges for orange juice. Prices move up because of greater demand than supply and the market finally recognizes this. But Bill, you and I know, that even if the market was to recognize that there’s greater demand for coffee or orange juice today, demand cannot be met readily. In other words, we can’t flip a switch and then all of a sudden we’re going to have a gazillion gallons of orange juice go to the grocery store or Starbucks is going to be able to get its hands on a gazillion pounds of coffee beans.

BILL: It would take years and years for there to be enough, especially in the case of coffee, to be able to get production up to speed to meet the demand. In the meantime, what has to happen is that the prices will skyrocket because there just won’t be enough supply. They won’t go up for years no matter, even though the price increases and everyone wants to get into the coffee and orange juice business, it’s just the gestation time or whatever it is, would take so long that there won’t be any supply coming on stream for many, many years.

JIM: And so prices are going to have to rise to a high enough level to discourage demand so there would be less people frequenting a Starbucks and less people buying orange juice until there is an incentive to increase supply. So growers plant more citrus trees and more coffee bushes. But that takes time. That takes two to three years, maybe five years to happen.