Grazie a Amg per il report,questo l'ho letto...
E grazie anche a Bos per la Storia Angolana,credo che tutti noi (io per primo)avremmo espcluso ogni contatto e invece pare una cosa positiva
Our thesis on the low recoveries rests on the assumption that the inter-group
funding to BES Angola is transferred to Novo Banco, resulting in a lower
pool of assets to meet claims at the Bad Bank. We think that rather than
leave excess equity value at the Bad Bank, the transfer of assets to Novo
Bank is effectively how the capital base at Novo Banco has been reinforced.
While it may seem counterintuitive that the BES Angola loan has been
transferred to Novo Banco, an entity which is required to sever all links with
the legacy issues, we expect that this asset would have been transferred at a
written-down or provisioned value to Novo Banco. In this way, Novo
Banco’s capital base should have no downside risk to Angola, but has some
recovery upside if and when this loan is repaid. This is the only way that we
can reconcile the fact that Novo Banco has a CET1 ratio of 8.5%, when the
combination of the €4.9bn injection and the equity value from BES would
imply a higher CET1 ratio. We think that the heavy provisioning of the
Angola loan would have given some upside to Novo Banco, but reduce the
downside risk in the event that BESA does not honor its contracts.
We regard the above as good news for the senior unsecured debt instruments
which have now been transferred to Novo Banco, on the basis that the
selective transfer of assets and liabilities implies that there is limited residual
risk, and that the Bank of Portugal has highlighted that some of the
contingent litigation claims will remain within the sphere of the Bad Bank.
While the CET1 ratio at Novo Banco at 8.5% is hardly excessive, we would
highlight that if we are correct in our assumption with regard to some upside
from the BES Angola loan, then the CET1 ratio could reach 13.7%, under
our assumptions. In our opinion Novo Banco emerges as a relatively clean
entity and while we cannot rule out some reputational and negative franchise
value impact as a result of the developments over the last few months, we
think that it is likely to recover its earnings capacity over time.
