Obbligazioni societarie La saga della famiglia Espírito Santo: cosa succederà alle obbligazioni BES ed ESFG?
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Rating Action:
Moodys' downgrades Espirito Santo Financial Group ratings to Caa2 from B2, ratings remain on review for downgrade
Global Credit Research - 09 Jul 2014
Madrid, July 09, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the long-term issuer and debt ratings of Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A. (ESFG) to Caa2 from B2. The entity's ratings remain on review for downgrade and the short-term ratings have been affirmed at Not Prime.
The downgrade reflects Moody's view of a higher credit risk profile for ESFG following the increase in ESFG's exposure to its indirect shareholders (Espirito Santo International (ESI) and Rioforte, both unrated) which it disclosed on 3 July 2014. Moody's concerns regarding ESFG's creditworthiness are heightened by the lack of transparency around both the Espirito Santo Group's financial position and the extent of intra-group linkages including ESFG's direct and indirect exposure to ESI.
For additional insight about our recent rating actions on ESFG please refer to "Moody's reviews Banco Espirito Santo's Ba3 ratings for downgrade" published on 26 June 2014 (https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_302552).
For a full list of affected ratings, please refer to the end of this press release.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- LOWERING OF THE ISSUER RATINGS
The three notch downgrade of ESFG's issuer and long-term debt ratings to Caa2, reflects the entity's deteriorating credit risk profile following the increase in its exposure to ESI and Rioforte to EUR2.35 billion at end-June 2014 from EUR1.37 billion at year-end 2013. The financial troubles of these two companies have been the catalyst for the weakening of ESFG's creditworthiness in recent months. ESFG had already raised a EUR700 million provision at end-December 2013 against possible losses stemming from its commitment to safeguard retail customers of Banco Espirito Santo, S.A. (BES, Ba3/E+/b1 review for downgrade) against any losses experienced on their holdings of ESI's commercial paper. While that indirect exposure has diminished in recent months as the commercial paper has matured, ESFG's direct lending exposure to ESI and Rioforte has increased significantly over the period.
As well as heightening EFSG's vulnerability to the default of these companies, the increase raises concerns that its exposure may increase still further over the coming months, whether through direct lending or as a result of any further obligations stemming from Espirito Santo Group debt for which ESFG might choose to assume liability. Those concerns are magnified by the lack of transparency around the financial position of ESI and the lack of information from the Espirito Santo group on the extent of intra-group linkages including ESFG's direct and indirect exposure to ESI.
The continued review for downgrade of ESFG's rating will attempt to address that opacity and to obtain the information needed to understand the full extent of ESFG's current and potential future exposure to other parts of the Espirito Santo Group, and the risks associated with that exposure. The downward bias of the review reflects the downside risks to ESFG's rating that could stem from the conclusion of the review for downgrade of its operating company BES as well as the potential for its credit profile to deteriorate still further should more support need to be provided to any other Espirito Santo Group interests. The review of ESFG's issuer rating will also focus on (1) impact of the restructuring plan of the Espirito Santo Group, and (2) the implications of the change in the scope of supervision by Bank of Portugal announced on 5 July 2014 from ESFG to its operating company BES.
The increase in the rating differential between ESFG and its operating company BES to four notches reflects the rising risks to creditors highlighted above as well as the structural subordination of ESFG's creditors to those of the bank.
DOWNGRADE OF SUBORDINATED DEBT AND HYBRID RATINGS
The downgrade of ESFG's long-term issuer rating to Caa2 and further review for downgrade, has prompted the downgrade to Caa3 and further review for downgrade of its subordinated debt ratings and to C(hyb) of its preference shares.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN/UP
The ratings remain on review for downgrade, indicating downward pressure. In addition, a lowering of BES's stand alone credit assessment would likely lead to a downgrade of ESFG's issuer rating.
Upward pressure on ESFG's ratings is unlikely given the current review for downgrade.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Downgrades:
..Issuer: ESFG International Limited
....Pref. Stock Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Downgraded to C(hyb) from Caa2(hyb)
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A.
.... Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Caa2 from B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Caa2 from (P)B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Caa3 from (P)B3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Caa3 from B3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Conv./Exch. Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Caa2 from B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financiere S.A.
....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Caa2 from (P)B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Jun, Downgraded to Caa2 from B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
Affirmations:
..Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo N. A. Capital, LLC
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A.
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financiere S.A.
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Plc
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Outlooks:
Unchanged at Rating Under Review:
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A.
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financiere S.A.
No Outlook:
..Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo N. A. Capital, LLC
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Plc
..Issuer: ESFG International Limited
Moodys' downgrades Espirito Santo Financial Group ratings to Caa2 from B2, ratings remain on review for downgrade
Global Credit Research - 09 Jul 2014
Madrid, July 09, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the long-term issuer and debt ratings of Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A. (ESFG) to Caa2 from B2. The entity's ratings remain on review for downgrade and the short-term ratings have been affirmed at Not Prime.
The downgrade reflects Moody's view of a higher credit risk profile for ESFG following the increase in ESFG's exposure to its indirect shareholders (Espirito Santo International (ESI) and Rioforte, both unrated) which it disclosed on 3 July 2014. Moody's concerns regarding ESFG's creditworthiness are heightened by the lack of transparency around both the Espirito Santo Group's financial position and the extent of intra-group linkages including ESFG's direct and indirect exposure to ESI.
For additional insight about our recent rating actions on ESFG please refer to "Moody's reviews Banco Espirito Santo's Ba3 ratings for downgrade" published on 26 June 2014 (https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_302552).
For a full list of affected ratings, please refer to the end of this press release.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- LOWERING OF THE ISSUER RATINGS
The three notch downgrade of ESFG's issuer and long-term debt ratings to Caa2, reflects the entity's deteriorating credit risk profile following the increase in its exposure to ESI and Rioforte to EUR2.35 billion at end-June 2014 from EUR1.37 billion at year-end 2013. The financial troubles of these two companies have been the catalyst for the weakening of ESFG's creditworthiness in recent months. ESFG had already raised a EUR700 million provision at end-December 2013 against possible losses stemming from its commitment to safeguard retail customers of Banco Espirito Santo, S.A. (BES, Ba3/E+/b1 review for downgrade) against any losses experienced on their holdings of ESI's commercial paper. While that indirect exposure has diminished in recent months as the commercial paper has matured, ESFG's direct lending exposure to ESI and Rioforte has increased significantly over the period.
As well as heightening EFSG's vulnerability to the default of these companies, the increase raises concerns that its exposure may increase still further over the coming months, whether through direct lending or as a result of any further obligations stemming from Espirito Santo Group debt for which ESFG might choose to assume liability. Those concerns are magnified by the lack of transparency around the financial position of ESI and the lack of information from the Espirito Santo group on the extent of intra-group linkages including ESFG's direct and indirect exposure to ESI.
The continued review for downgrade of ESFG's rating will attempt to address that opacity and to obtain the information needed to understand the full extent of ESFG's current and potential future exposure to other parts of the Espirito Santo Group, and the risks associated with that exposure. The downward bias of the review reflects the downside risks to ESFG's rating that could stem from the conclusion of the review for downgrade of its operating company BES as well as the potential for its credit profile to deteriorate still further should more support need to be provided to any other Espirito Santo Group interests. The review of ESFG's issuer rating will also focus on (1) impact of the restructuring plan of the Espirito Santo Group, and (2) the implications of the change in the scope of supervision by Bank of Portugal announced on 5 July 2014 from ESFG to its operating company BES.
The increase in the rating differential between ESFG and its operating company BES to four notches reflects the rising risks to creditors highlighted above as well as the structural subordination of ESFG's creditors to those of the bank.
DOWNGRADE OF SUBORDINATED DEBT AND HYBRID RATINGS
The downgrade of ESFG's long-term issuer rating to Caa2 and further review for downgrade, has prompted the downgrade to Caa3 and further review for downgrade of its subordinated debt ratings and to C(hyb) of its preference shares.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN/UP
The ratings remain on review for downgrade, indicating downward pressure. In addition, a lowering of BES's stand alone credit assessment would likely lead to a downgrade of ESFG's issuer rating.
Upward pressure on ESFG's ratings is unlikely given the current review for downgrade.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Downgrades:
..Issuer: ESFG International Limited
....Pref. Stock Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Downgraded to C(hyb) from Caa2(hyb)
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A.
.... Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Caa2 from B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Caa2 from (P)B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Caa3 from (P)B3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Caa3 from B3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Conv./Exch. Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Caa2 from B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financiere S.A.
....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Caa2 from (P)B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture Jun, Downgraded to Caa2 from B2; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
Affirmations:
..Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo N. A. Capital, LLC
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A.
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financiere S.A.
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Plc
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Outlooks:
Unchanged at Rating Under Review:
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A.
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Financiere S.A.
No Outlook:
..Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo N. A. Capital, LLC
..Issuer: Espirito Santo Plc
..Issuer: ESFG International Limited
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Rating Action:
Moody's downgrades Banco Espirito Santo's debt ratings to B3, deposit ratings to B2; ratings remain on review for downgrade
Global Credit Research - 11 Jul 2014
Madrid, July 11, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the long-term debt ratings of Banco Espirito Santo S.A. (BES) to B3 from Ba3 and the long-term deposit ratings to B2 from Ba3, following the downgrade of the bank's standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to E (equivalent to a ca baseline credit assessment) from E+/b1. The bank's long-term debt and deposit ratings remain on review for downgrade and the short-term ratings are affirmed at Not Prime.
The downgrade of BES's BFSR reflects Moody's concerns regarding BES's creditworthiness that are heightened by the lack of transparency on the ring-fencing of BES against any troubles emerging from its holding company Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG) or any other group entity. The rating action also reflects the deteriorating credit strength of ESFG (please refer to "Moodys' downgrades Espirito Santo Financial Group ratings to Caa2 from B2, ratings remain on review for downgrade" published on 9 July 2014, https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_303515).
For additional insight about our recent rating actions on BES please refer to "Moody's reviews Banco Espirito Santo's Ba3 ratings for downgrade" published on 26 June 2014 (https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_302552).
Please refer to the end of this press release for a list of affected ratings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- LOWERING OF THE STANDALONE CREDIT ASSESMENT
The downgrade of BES's standalone financial strength rating to E/ca from E+/b1 reflects the risks associated with the bank's direct exposure to the Espirito Santo Group and the likelihood that it may become liable for any further obligations stemming from the group. These concerns are heightened by the lack of information on BES's ring-fencing against these risks.
Today's rating action also incorporates the downgrade of ESFG's long-term issuer and debt ratings to Caa2, on review for downgrade, from B2. ESFG holds a 25.1% stake in BES and the bank is the holding company's main asset. BES disclosed on 10 July 2014 a balance sheet exposure of approximately EUR1.2 billion to the Espirito Santo Group, of which EUR926.8 million corresponded to ESFG and EUR224.3 million to Rioforte (indirect shareholder of ESFG and unrated). The weakened financial position of ESFG, and its vulnerability to a default by any of Espirito Santo Group's companies, raises concerns for the spill-over effect that this may cause for BES.
--- DOWNGRADE OF THE SENIOR DEBT AND DEPOSIT RATINGS
The downgrade of BES's senior debt and deposit ratings reflects (1) the downgrade of its standalone BCA to ca; and (2) Moody's assessment of a high probability of support from the Portuguese government for the bank in case of need. The one notch differential between BES's deposit and debt ratings, reflects our assessment of higher risk for senior debt holders versus the bank's depositors.
The continued review for downgrade of BES's debt and deposit ratings will assess the full extent of the financial liabilities that could emerge for BES from its holding company ESFG and from other parts of the Espirito Santo Group. The downward bias of the review reflects the downside risks to BES's standalone credit strength should the bank be required to support any of the Espirito Santo Group companies or become liable for any of its obligations.
---DOWNGRADE OF SUBORDINATED AND HYBRID RATINGS
In line with the lowering of the bank's BCA, Moody's has today downgraded the senior subordinated debt ratings of BES to C from B2, the junior subordinated ratings to C(hyb) from B3(hyb) and the preferred stock ratings to C(hyb) from Caa1(hyb).
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN/UP
The ratings have been placed on review for downgrade, indicating downward pressure. In addition, Moody's could downgrade BES's debt and deposit ratings as a result of the evolution of systemic support prospects in Portugal and in the EU, in light of recent developments associated with resolution mechanisms and burden sharing for European banks.
Upward pressure on BES's ratings is unlikely given the current review for downgrade.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo S.A., London Branch
..Downgrades:
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to B3 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
.... Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Program, Affirmed NP
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo S.A., Luxembourg Branch
..Downgrades:
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to B3 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
....Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo, S.A.
..Downgrades:
.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Changed to ca from b1
.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Changed to ca from b1
.... Bank Financial Strength Rating, Downgraded to E STA from E+ NEG
....Junior Subordinated Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to (P)C (hyb) from (P)B3 (hyb)
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to C from B2 RUR
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to B3 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
.... Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Backed Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo, S.A., Madeira Branch
..Downgrades:
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
.... Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Program, Affirmed NP
....Backed Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo, S.A., Cayman Branch
..Downgrades:
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Subordinate Bank Credit Facility, Downgraded to C from B2 RUR
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
.... Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Backed Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Issuer: BES Finance Ltd.
..Downgrades:
....Backed Junior Subordinated Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to C (hyb) from B3 (hyb) RUR
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Backed Pref. Stock Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Downgraded to C (hyb) from Caa1 (hyb) RUR
....Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to B3 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
Issuer: Espirito Santo Investment plc
..Downgrades:
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3
..Affirmations:
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Banks published in May 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
Moody's downgrades Banco Espirito Santo's debt ratings to B3, deposit ratings to B2; ratings remain on review for downgrade
Global Credit Research - 11 Jul 2014
Madrid, July 11, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the long-term debt ratings of Banco Espirito Santo S.A. (BES) to B3 from Ba3 and the long-term deposit ratings to B2 from Ba3, following the downgrade of the bank's standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to E (equivalent to a ca baseline credit assessment) from E+/b1. The bank's long-term debt and deposit ratings remain on review for downgrade and the short-term ratings are affirmed at Not Prime.
The downgrade of BES's BFSR reflects Moody's concerns regarding BES's creditworthiness that are heightened by the lack of transparency on the ring-fencing of BES against any troubles emerging from its holding company Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG) or any other group entity. The rating action also reflects the deteriorating credit strength of ESFG (please refer to "Moodys' downgrades Espirito Santo Financial Group ratings to Caa2 from B2, ratings remain on review for downgrade" published on 9 July 2014, https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_303515).
For additional insight about our recent rating actions on BES please refer to "Moody's reviews Banco Espirito Santo's Ba3 ratings for downgrade" published on 26 June 2014 (https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_302552).
Please refer to the end of this press release for a list of affected ratings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- LOWERING OF THE STANDALONE CREDIT ASSESMENT
The downgrade of BES's standalone financial strength rating to E/ca from E+/b1 reflects the risks associated with the bank's direct exposure to the Espirito Santo Group and the likelihood that it may become liable for any further obligations stemming from the group. These concerns are heightened by the lack of information on BES's ring-fencing against these risks.
Today's rating action also incorporates the downgrade of ESFG's long-term issuer and debt ratings to Caa2, on review for downgrade, from B2. ESFG holds a 25.1% stake in BES and the bank is the holding company's main asset. BES disclosed on 10 July 2014 a balance sheet exposure of approximately EUR1.2 billion to the Espirito Santo Group, of which EUR926.8 million corresponded to ESFG and EUR224.3 million to Rioforte (indirect shareholder of ESFG and unrated). The weakened financial position of ESFG, and its vulnerability to a default by any of Espirito Santo Group's companies, raises concerns for the spill-over effect that this may cause for BES.
--- DOWNGRADE OF THE SENIOR DEBT AND DEPOSIT RATINGS
The downgrade of BES's senior debt and deposit ratings reflects (1) the downgrade of its standalone BCA to ca; and (2) Moody's assessment of a high probability of support from the Portuguese government for the bank in case of need. The one notch differential between BES's deposit and debt ratings, reflects our assessment of higher risk for senior debt holders versus the bank's depositors.
The continued review for downgrade of BES's debt and deposit ratings will assess the full extent of the financial liabilities that could emerge for BES from its holding company ESFG and from other parts of the Espirito Santo Group. The downward bias of the review reflects the downside risks to BES's standalone credit strength should the bank be required to support any of the Espirito Santo Group companies or become liable for any of its obligations.
---DOWNGRADE OF SUBORDINATED AND HYBRID RATINGS
In line with the lowering of the bank's BCA, Moody's has today downgraded the senior subordinated debt ratings of BES to C from B2, the junior subordinated ratings to C(hyb) from B3(hyb) and the preferred stock ratings to C(hyb) from Caa1(hyb).
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN/UP
The ratings have been placed on review for downgrade, indicating downward pressure. In addition, Moody's could downgrade BES's debt and deposit ratings as a result of the evolution of systemic support prospects in Portugal and in the EU, in light of recent developments associated with resolution mechanisms and burden sharing for European banks.
Upward pressure on BES's ratings is unlikely given the current review for downgrade.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo S.A., London Branch
..Downgrades:
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to B3 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
.... Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Program, Affirmed NP
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo S.A., Luxembourg Branch
..Downgrades:
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to B3 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
....Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo, S.A.
..Downgrades:
.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Changed to ca from b1
.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Changed to ca from b1
.... Bank Financial Strength Rating, Downgraded to E STA from E+ NEG
....Junior Subordinated Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to (P)C (hyb) from (P)B3 (hyb)
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to C from B2 RUR
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to B3 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
.... Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Backed Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo, S.A., Madeira Branch
..Downgrades:
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
.... Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Program, Affirmed NP
....Backed Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Issuer: Banco Espirito Santo, S.A., Cayman Branch
..Downgrades:
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Subordinate Bank Credit Facility, Downgraded to C from B2 RUR
....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Downgraded to B2 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
.... Deposit Rating, Affirmed NP
....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
....Backed Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP
Issuer: BES Finance Ltd.
..Downgrades:
....Backed Junior Subordinated Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to C (hyb) from B3 (hyb) RUR
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
....Backed Pref. Stock Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Downgraded to C (hyb) from Caa1 (hyb) RUR
....Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to B3 RUR from Ba3 RUR; Placed Under Review for further Downgrade
..Affirmations:
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
Issuer: Espirito Santo Investment plc
..Downgrades:
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)C from (P)B2
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)Ba3
..Affirmations:
....Backed Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)NP
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Banks published in May 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
NoWay
It's time to play the game
Viste le premesse, gli eventi odierni hanno seguito un copione “classico”.
La banca e gli organi istituzionali (e anche parecchie banche d’affari: per limitare le brutte figure?) si sono fatti in 4 per tranquillizzare i mercati.
La comunicazione, da parte della banca, di numeri importanti, e richiesti a gran voce, come quelli del credito di BES verso GES, mirava allo stesso obiettivo.
Non voglio apparire troppo cinico, ma questi non possono che essere messaggi irrilevanti, per chi desiderasse capire come è veramente messa la banca.
D’altronde, quanto affidabili possono essere le dichiarazioni di chi è addirittura costretto a rassicurare i depositanti che i loro risparmi non sono in pericolo?
E soprattutto: quale credibilità hanno gli autori delle comunicazioni di BES?Cosa avremmo dovuto pensare delle dichiarazioni di un Fiorani o di un Baldassarri, poco prima che uscissero dalle loro banche?
Per sapere come sono messe le cose non si può che attendere Vitor Bento.
L’andamento odierno del titolo azionario BES conferma, mi sembra, questa lettura.
Grande volatilità e chiusura in rosso marcato (-5.50% dalla chiusura precedente; -13.49% dall’apertura).
Riflettiamo: secondo il comunicato BES il “rischio GES” non dovrebbe superare 1.2 bln. Anche volendo credere a queste cifre, come pensiamo si comporteranno gli ispettori BCE nel corso dell’AQR?
In altre parole: il mercato capisce che un aumento di capitale non può mancare e si chiede se quella sarà l’occasione buona per tagliare completamente i ponti con la “famiglia”. Perché se così non fosse, le cose si complicherebbero terribilmente.
In questo contesto i giudizi di Moody’s piovono sul bagnato:
Moody's corta 'rating' do BES em três níveis e avisa para mais descidas | Económico
A proposito di GES va comunque segnalato l’atteggiamento costruttivo del Governo:
Passos pede ao GES para negociar com credores e afasta intervenção estatal | Económico
Sembra evidente che l’auspicio di “sistemare” la pratica GES, vada interpretato, a mio avviso, nel senso che lo stesso Governo si prodigherà per favorire la chiusura della “pratica”.
Fermo restando che:
a)non interverrà direttamente (però sappiamo tutti cosa sia la moral suasion…)
b)viene ribadita la separazione tra BES (che potrebbe arrecare danni irreparabili al Portogallo) e GES.
Sarà comunque un’impresa ardua. Basti pensare che, in aggiunta a tutti i problemi già emersi, ogni calo nel valore del titolo BES allarga il buco nei bilanci GES…
Conclusione: di BES e di GES sentiremo parecchio parlare per i prossimi mesi…
Nella tua analisi non consideri la decisa presa di posizione della Banca del Portogallo.
L'idea che mi sono fatto io è che si sta aspettando di vedere a quanto ammonta effettivamente il buco di ESFG. Poi, se necessario, si farà un nuovo ADC per BES (da cui sarà esclusa la holding).
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
a proposito di esposizione diretta e ..indiretta
Please remember BES direct exposure to the group - @ 30 June 2014
·BES has no direct exposure to Espírito Santo International (ESI).
·BES has an exposure of around EUR 200m to Rio Forte.
·BES has an exposure of c. EUR 780m to Espírito Santo Financial Group (ESFG).
On the other hand, BES also has an indirect exposure of EUR 2.6bn related to the debt of ESG sold in its branches, as detailed below:
·Retail clients - Total exposure to BES group debt (ESI, ESFG, RioForte, BES) of EUR 651m in 30 June 2014 vs. EUR 2.1bn in December 2013. Main changes verified at ESI (from 1.5bn in December 2013 to EUR 255m in 30 June 2014) and at Rio Forte from EUR 479m in December 2013 to EUR 342m in 30 June 2014.
·Institutional clients – Exposure from EUR 1.5bn in YE13 to 1.94bn in June 2014, namely related to Rio Forte exposure.
As a consequence, the total exposure (direct and indirect) of BES to ESG debt is close to EUR 3.6bn.
Please remember BES direct exposure to the group - @ 30 June 2014
·BES has no direct exposure to Espírito Santo International (ESI).
·BES has an exposure of around EUR 200m to Rio Forte.
·BES has an exposure of c. EUR 780m to Espírito Santo Financial Group (ESFG).
On the other hand, BES also has an indirect exposure of EUR 2.6bn related to the debt of ESG sold in its branches, as detailed below:
·Retail clients - Total exposure to BES group debt (ESI, ESFG, RioForte, BES) of EUR 651m in 30 June 2014 vs. EUR 2.1bn in December 2013. Main changes verified at ESI (from 1.5bn in December 2013 to EUR 255m in 30 June 2014) and at Rio Forte from EUR 479m in December 2013 to EUR 342m in 30 June 2014.
·Institutional clients – Exposure from EUR 1.5bn in YE13 to 1.94bn in June 2014, namely related to Rio Forte exposure.
As a consequence, the total exposure (direct and indirect) of BES to ESG debt is close to EUR 3.6bn.
Ultima modifica:
NoWay
It's time to play the game
Mi chiarisci cosa significa in concreto?
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
ricordi nella prima comunicazione fornita da bes in cui accennavano solamente alle esposizioni dirette? come puoi notare il numero sale velocemente contando anche quelle indirette
l' intreccio tra bes e esg costruito negli anni e' /sara' difficile da "smontare"
se consideriamo poi che parte del valore di esg e' dato dalle partecipazioni in azioni bes e portugal telecom, notiamo con una certa preoccupazione che il circolo vizioso dell' avvitamento e' in pieno svolgimento
scendono pt e bes e cala il valore di esg quindi calano ancora bes e pt e cosi' via...
Ultima modifica:
NoWay
It's time to play the game
Non mi sono spiegato bene... chiedevo cosa sono queste esposizioni indirette...