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[risparmier]

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Bovespa index’s drop beneath a two-month low signals that the gauge for Brazilian equity may retreat another 8 percent to its 200-day average close, according to Oscar Gruss & Son.
The 63-company measure tumbled 4.7 percent yesterday, the most since Oct. 28, on rising concern a faltering global recovery will leave developing nations vulnerable. The decline dragged the measure beneath a two-month low on Jan. 27, indicating the Bovespa may fall to its 200-day moving average of 58,838.95, according to Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer of Oscar Gruss, a New York-based brokerage.
The Bovespa plunged 8 percent from a 19-month high on Jan. 6 through Jan. 27 as steps by China to curb growth spurred concern that demand for Brazilian exports will weaken. The index rebounded, gaining as much as 3.2 percent through Feb. 2, before plunging yesterday. The measure’s 83 percent gain in 2009 was magnified by a 33 percent rally in Brazil’s real for investors who measure returns in U.S. dollars.
“It’s breaking down,” Shaoul said in a telephone interview. “For U.S. investors, you got paid twice last year and you’re going to have to pay for it twice this year. It attracted a lot of speculative capital and it’s not abnormal to unwind.”
The Bovespa may fall to 55,000, a 14 percent drop from yesterday’s close, should it breach the 200-day moving average, said Shaoul, citing technical analysis that uses charts and trading patterns to forecast index moves.
Currency Retreat
Gold prices broke a key support level yesterday, signaling that the real may fall 7.1 percent to the lowest level since July, according to MIG Bank.
Spot gold prices dropped to a three-month low, falling beneath a support level at about $1,072 per ounce as the dollar rallied yesterday, triggering sell orders, according to Paul Day, chief market analyst at MIG in Neuchatel, Switzerland. Bullion’s slump suggests Brazil’s real will extend its retreat after weakening to the lowest level since September as investors seeking a haven dump higher-yielding emerging-market assets for dollars, Day said.
The real lost 1.3 percent yesterday to 1.8769 per dollar after reaching 1.8975, the weakest level since Sept. 3. The real would slump to 2.02 should it weaken beyond 1.92, a level last seen on Sept. 2, according to Day. That would be the weakest level since July 10.
“The whole market is a big trade, which is risk off,” said Day. “The market is very nervous. Gold got smashed, and the dollar is getting stronger for the foreseeable future on risk aversion.”
The 30-day correlation between gold and the real increased to 0.71 yesterday, the highest level since January 2008, according to Bloomberg data. A reading of 1 indicates assets are moving in lockstep.
The real has lost 7.1 percent this year, the biggest drop among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Bovespa Set for 8% Drop to 200-Day Average: Technical Analysis - Bloomberg.com

 

[risparmier]

Brazilian stocks gained, pushing the Bovespa index to its highest level in two weeks, as commodities rallied and better-than-estimated housing starts in the U.S. eased concern that the economic recovery is faltering.
Vale SA surged as investors speculated this year’s contracts with Chinese steelmakers will reflect a doubling in so-called spot market prices. BM&FBovespa SA jumped 2.8 percent on a report that Latin America’s biggest exchange is in talks with counterparts in Shanghai, Shenzen and Hong Kong to reach cross-trading agreements. Trading resumed after the Sao Paulo exchange was closed the past two days for the Carnival holiday.
“There’s a price gap after the holiday with New York extending a two-day rally,” said Decio Pecequilo, senior trader at TOV Corretora in Sao Paulo. “The Bovespa making all these agreements with other exchanges is good for the market as a whole.”
The Bovespa stock index gained 2.2 percent to 67,299 at 12:18 p.m. New York time, the highest intraday level since Feb. 3. Five stocks gained on the index for every one that fell. The BM&FBovespa Small Cap index rose 1.3 percent to 1,170.37. Trading began at 10 a.m. New York time today following Carnival. The real gained 0.9 percent to 1.8378 to per dollar.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of 22 developing nations’ stocks gained 1.2 percent in the two days that Brazilian markets were closed and rose 1.3 percent to 944.63 today.
Economic Improvement
U.S. housing starts and industrial production increased more than estimated in January, adding to evidence growth is accelerating in the world’s largest economy and Brazil’s second- biggest trading partner. Copper, a bellwether for global growth, rose to a three-week high in New York on speculation that increased bookings to draw down inventories of metal may signal stronger demand from China, the world’s biggest consumer.
Vale climbed after BHP Billiton Ltd., in talks with China to set annual iron ore prices, joined the Rio de Janeiro-based producer in signaling that this year’s contracts should reflect the doubling in spot market prices. The four-decade old annual pricing system was fractured last year after Chinese mills refused to accept a 33 percent gain sought by BHP, Vale and Rio Tinto Group. Nomura Holdings Inc. and Bank of America have forecast producers may win increases of as much as 50 percent.

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The Bovespa soared 83 percent in 2009, its best performance since 2003, as domestic demand, government stimulus plans and rising prices for Brazil’s commodity exports helped pull the economy out of recession faster than most countries. The index has fallen 1.9 percent this year. The real has dropped 4.9 percent this year after soaring 33 percent in 2009, the best performance among 26 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The Bovespa trades for 13.1 times analysts’ 2010 earnings estimates, compared with 15.8 times for Mexico’s Bolsa and 17.7 times for Chile’s Ipsa. The IGBC Index in Colombia is valued at 21.1 times profit estimates, Bloomberg data show.
Brazil’s benchmark index dropped as much as 11 percent from a 19-month high in January as China, Brazil’s biggest trading partner, curbed bank lending to slow its economy and contain inflation and concern mounted that European nations would have trouble financing their debt. The index has rebounded since European leaders ordered Greece to get the region’s highest budget deficit under control.

Last Updated: February 17, 2010 12:21 EST

Brazil Stocks Gain on Economic Recovery Outlook; Real Advances - Bloomberg.com


Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian inflation will accelerate to 4.8 percent this year, faster than the government’s target, a central bank survey published today showed.
Economists raised their 2010 forecast for a fourth week, according to the median estimate in a Feb. 12 survey of about 100 analysts published on the central bank’s Web site. The week- earlier estimate was for inflation of 4.78 percent. The forecasts have exceeded the government target of 4.5 percent, plus or minus two percentage points, since Jan. 22.
Faster economic expansion will fuel price increases, prompting the central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate to 9.25 percent in April, up from a record low 8.75 percent, the survey said. Policy makers will lift the so-called Selic rate to 11.25 percent by year end, holding it there until December 2011, according to the survey.
Economists expect Latin America’s biggest economy to expand 5.47 percent in 2010, up from a week-earlier forecast of 5.35 percent, the survey said. Analysts forecast that the economy will grow 4.5 percent next year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=anyXd7VDiu.s