L' inflazione dovrebbe rientrare.
C' è stata un' inversione ribassista per l' indice delle materie prime CRB
http://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BZY0
http://www.borse.it/Schedaetf.php?T=2&ID=11170
Adesso si tratta di sbloccare il mercato del credito per evitare che la crisi finanziaria si estenda in modo drammatico al resto dell' economia.
Una delle possibili alternative al piano respinto ieri dal Congresso USA, è qualcosa di simile alla crisi del '29 per la maggior parte della popolazione.
Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Money-market rates in Europe jumped to records after the U.S. Congress rejected a $700 billion rescue plan for financial companies, heightening concern more banks will fail, and as lenders hoarded cash as the third quarter ends.
The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, that banks charge each other for one-month loans climbed to a record 5.05 percent today, the European Banking Federation said. Rates on three-month loans in dollars were as high as 10 percent as of 10:50 a.m. in London, said Ronald Tharun, a money-market trader in Stuttgart at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany's biggest state-owned lender. The dollar Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of the scarcity of cash, advanced to a record. Rates in Asia also rose.
``The money markets have completely broken down, with no trading taking place at all,'' said Christoph Rieger, a fixed- income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``There is no market any more. Central banks are the only providers of cash to the market, no-one else is lending.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adMzMh3b2Ew8&refer=home
L' inflazione di cui alcuni chiacchieravano sopra sta per finire nel mondo dei sogni. E con essa anche la stagflazione. Si prospetta una recessione.
Vi siete accorti che c' è stato il più pesante ribasso dell' ultimo mezzo secolo per le materie prime? Adesso il rischio è la DEFLAZIONE con il rischio di esiti "giapponesi"
Deflation May Be Next Threat as Commodities, Asset Markets Sink
By John Fraher
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- As Federal Reserve Chairman
Ben S. Bernanke and his global colleagues fight the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, one danger is looming larger by the day: deflation.
With
asset markets tumbling, commodity prices plunging the most in 50 years and banks keeping a tighter grip on credit, the ingredients for a sustained period of falling prices are coalescing. While inflation is still a concern for many policy makers only months after oil and
food prices peaked, the risk is their patchwork of rescue and stimulus packages will fail, and prices will start to fall throughout the broader economy.
``The ghost of deflation could be dragged out of the closet again in coming months,'' says
Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG in London.
A global recession is already looking more likely, with the credit freeze stirring memories of Japan's decade-long struggle with deflation in the 1990s. So European Central Bank President
Jean-Claude Trichet and Bank of England Governor
Mervyn King may be forced to follow Bernanke, whose Fed has chopped its
benchmark rate by 3.25 percentage points since August 2007 to 2 percent -- its most aggressive round of easing in two decades.
The deflation scenario might go like this: Banks worldwide, stung by $588 billion in writedowns related to toxic assets -- especially mortgage-related securities -- will further reduce the flow of credit, strangling growth. That will push
house prices lower, forcing additional losses and making banks even more reluctant to lend. As the credit crisis worsens, businesses will find it almost impossible to raise prices.
A `Vicious' Cycle
``A vicious deflationary cycle'' could then ensue, says
Tony Tan, deputy chairman of Government of Singapore Investment Corp., a sovereign-wealth fund that oversees more than $100 billion.
Prices are already falling in parts of the world economy. Home values dropped more than 10 percent in the U.K. and in the U.S. in the past year. Oil, copper and corn drove
commodities toward their biggest weekly decline since at least 1956 on Oct. 3, with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials tumbling 10.4 percent. The
Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs, has dropped 75 percent since May.
``We are certainly more worried about deflation than inflation,'' says
David Owen, chief European economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Group Ltd. in London. Central bankers need to ``get rates down and keep them there for quite some time,'' he says.
Aggressive Easing
Trichet said Oct. 2 that European policy makers have considered reversing their decision in July to raise their
benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent. Forty-six of the 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the Bank of England to cut its
key rate by at least a quarter point Oct. 9 from 5 percent.
The Fed has already responded to one deflationary scare this decade. With inflation approaching 1 percent in 2003, then- Chairman Alan Greenspan slashed its rate to a 45-year low of 1 percent and kept it there for a year, which its critics say helped fuel the property and credit boom that is now unraveling.
This time, the crisis is an increasingly dysfunctional banking system that may not be able to continue making loans that grease economic activity. Such a pullback, combined with slowing growth and falling asset and commodity prices, makes deflation more of a threat, Owen says.
Restricting Credit
Spooked by the collapse of
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and other institutions, banks are restricting access to credit. The London interbank offered rate, or
Libor, they charge each other for three-month loans in dollars rose to 4.33 percent on Oct, 3, the highest since January.
Not all economists share Owen's gloomy outlook. Some say Bernanke and other central bankers have learned the lessons of Japan and the Great Depression so well they will do everything necessary to head off trouble.
Former Fed Governor
Lyle Gramley says that while deflation is a risk ``if we were to go into a very, very prolonged recession and nobody did anything about it,'' he is ``not worried,'' because he's confident the Fed will act ``very, very, very aggressively.''
Bernanke, who has studied the Great Depression since he was a graduate student, has said that one key reason the U.S. stock- market crash of 1929 had such severe consequences was that lenders were forced to close and the banking system was deprived of liquidity.
`Lost Decade'
He has also studied Japan's ``
lost decade '' of deflation, which was partly caused by a banking crisis, and has argued that its policy makers waited too long to respond to a stock-and- property price crash at the start of the 1990s. In a 2002
speech that earned him the nickname ``Helicopter Ben,'' he said governments and central banks must respond immediately to such a deflationary shock by dropping money into the banking system.
The caution of Japan's leaders -- who waited until 1999 before using taxpayers' money to bail out the banks -- cost their economy dearly. Lending shrank,
unemployment more than doubled to 5.5 percent, and Japan experienced three recessions between 1990 and 2002. From 1997 to 2007, consumer prices dropped 2.2 percent. In the U.S., prices climbed 29 percent in the same period.
...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aD24rTsF1jwE&refer=home
