Near
Forumer storico
allora la quota data dalla componente "exploracion" è farlocca
e l'esito è inevitabilmente meno petrolio
Obbligazioni valute high yield MESSICO, PEMEX e Obbligazioni in pesos (MXN)
- Creatore Discussione Gaudente
- Data di Inizio
e l'esito è inevitabilmente meno petrolio
tommy271
Forumer storico
Perlomeno, equivoca.
Info Moodys
Mexico's budget maintains fiscal responsibility, but with little room for
maneuver
Originally published on 18 December 2018
On 15 December, Mexico's (A3 stable) President Andrés Manuel López Obrador submitted his government's 2019 budget proposal
to Congress. The $289 billion budget anticipates a slower-than-expected rise in expenditures by offsetting new spending with cuts
to public administration expenses, and indicates the government's commitment to fiscal responsibility, which should support market
confidence. That said, revenue assumptions break with the previous practice of setting conservative targets, particularly for the tax
intake, which will limit room for fiscal maneuver in the event of contingencies or adverse shocks. Moreover, transfers to Petroleos
Mexicanos (PEMEX, Baa3 stable) and Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE, Baa1 stable) in the 2019 budget, which will likely remain
in place throughout this administration, raises the risk that these state-owned entities would become a recurrent drain on federal
government resources, potentially undermining the sovereign’s credit profile over the next six years.
The budget targets a primary surplus of 1% of GDP in 2019 at the public sector level, from an estimated 0.7% in 2018, driven by a 6.1%
growth in government spending and a 6.3% increase in revenue. If met, these targets should be enough to sustain debt-to-GDP at
around 46% for the public sector and 35% for the federal government, supporting the sovereign's credit profile.
Budget assumptions include 2% real GDP growth, 3.4% inflation and an average oil price of $55 per barrel in 2019, all of which are
realistic in our view. Where the government is likely to fall short is in its 1.847 million barrels per day oil production target, which is
broadly in line with 2018 production levels. Given declines of 9% in 2017, 8% in 2018 and the need for increased capital expenditures
to stabilize production, we expect production levels to likely continue to decrease, which would ultimately weigh on the government's
revenue intake because 19% of public sector revenue (14% for the federal government) come from oil.
The budget incorporates tax stimulus measures in northern states that seek to support economic activity and job creation to curb the
incidence of young people joining gangs and contributing to violence. The measures would cut value added taxes in the north to 8%
from 16% in the rest of the country, and income tax by a third of the national level. This would subtract 0.2% of GDP from revenue
according to the government's calculations. Although small, the decrease in overall revenue is to be offset by more efficient collection
and tax compliance measures. The government's overall revenue projections will likely be challenging to meet. With no proposed tax
reforms in place, the government expects tax revenue to increase by 3.8% even with the aforementioned tax cuts in place.
On the expenditure side, much of the 1.1% of GDP in new expenditures on public investment and social programs will be offset by
lower spending on public administration. The government plans to shrink several ministries, including transport, agriculture and
environment, as well as reducing public salaries for high-level officials and cutting goods and services purchases. In all, the authorities
expect these measures to decrease operational expenditures by 0.7% of GDP.
Budgetary transfers to PEMEX and CFE pose the greatest source of uncertainty for fiscal performance over the medium term. The
government's decision to expand their presence in the energy sector relies on a significant increase to their capital expenditures and
is likely to require recurrent, and possibly augmented, transfers that could weigh on federal government finances. President López
Obrador has announced plans to rehabilitate six PEMEX refineries, build a new one worth $8 billion (0.7% of GDP) and increase
exploration and production of crude oil during his time in office. In line with this mandate, the draft proposal expands PEMEX's and
CFE's budgets by a total 0.4% of GDP relative to the 2018 budget, channeling these resources away from the federal government.
All in all, even after accounting for possible deviations from the government’s proposed fiscal targets, the sovereign’s strong fiscal
starting point provides a near-term buffer. The draft budget suggests that the federal government fiscal deficit will amount to 2.1% of
GDP, very much in line with our 2% of GDP forecast for 2019, and not materially wider than our 2018 projection of around 1.5% of
GDP (see exhibit). Moreover, the budget’s prudent overall stance should support investor confidence, relieving the sovereign of some of
the financial market and exchange rate volatility seen in recent months.
19 20 December 2018 Credit Outlook: 20 December 2018
Mexico's fiscal stance is broadly neutral in 2019 budget draft
(% of GDP unless otherwise indicated)
2018E* 2019F
Public sector fiscal balance -2.0 -2.0
o/w Federal government (incl. Social Security) balance -1.5 -2.1
Public sector primary balance 0.7 1.0
Public sector debt 45.3 45.6
o/w Federal government (incl. Social Security) debt 34.5 34.7
Budget assumptions
Real GDP growth (%) 2.3 2.0
Oil price (Mexican mix, $ per barrel) 62.5 55.0
*Moody's estimates
Sources: Mexico 2019 Budget Document and Moody's Investors Service
Mexico's budget maintains fiscal responsibility, but with little room for
maneuver
Originally published on 18 December 2018
On 15 December, Mexico's (A3 stable) President Andrés Manuel López Obrador submitted his government's 2019 budget proposal
to Congress. The $289 billion budget anticipates a slower-than-expected rise in expenditures by offsetting new spending with cuts
to public administration expenses, and indicates the government's commitment to fiscal responsibility, which should support market
confidence. That said, revenue assumptions break with the previous practice of setting conservative targets, particularly for the tax
intake, which will limit room for fiscal maneuver in the event of contingencies or adverse shocks. Moreover, transfers to Petroleos
Mexicanos (PEMEX, Baa3 stable) and Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE, Baa1 stable) in the 2019 budget, which will likely remain
in place throughout this administration, raises the risk that these state-owned entities would become a recurrent drain on federal
government resources, potentially undermining the sovereign’s credit profile over the next six years.
The budget targets a primary surplus of 1% of GDP in 2019 at the public sector level, from an estimated 0.7% in 2018, driven by a 6.1%
growth in government spending and a 6.3% increase in revenue. If met, these targets should be enough to sustain debt-to-GDP at
around 46% for the public sector and 35% for the federal government, supporting the sovereign's credit profile.
Budget assumptions include 2% real GDP growth, 3.4% inflation and an average oil price of $55 per barrel in 2019, all of which are
realistic in our view. Where the government is likely to fall short is in its 1.847 million barrels per day oil production target, which is
broadly in line with 2018 production levels. Given declines of 9% in 2017, 8% in 2018 and the need for increased capital expenditures
to stabilize production, we expect production levels to likely continue to decrease, which would ultimately weigh on the government's
revenue intake because 19% of public sector revenue (14% for the federal government) come from oil.
The budget incorporates tax stimulus measures in northern states that seek to support economic activity and job creation to curb the
incidence of young people joining gangs and contributing to violence. The measures would cut value added taxes in the north to 8%
from 16% in the rest of the country, and income tax by a third of the national level. This would subtract 0.2% of GDP from revenue
according to the government's calculations. Although small, the decrease in overall revenue is to be offset by more efficient collection
and tax compliance measures. The government's overall revenue projections will likely be challenging to meet. With no proposed tax
reforms in place, the government expects tax revenue to increase by 3.8% even with the aforementioned tax cuts in place.
On the expenditure side, much of the 1.1% of GDP in new expenditures on public investment and social programs will be offset by
lower spending on public administration. The government plans to shrink several ministries, including transport, agriculture and
environment, as well as reducing public salaries for high-level officials and cutting goods and services purchases. In all, the authorities
expect these measures to decrease operational expenditures by 0.7% of GDP.
Budgetary transfers to PEMEX and CFE pose the greatest source of uncertainty for fiscal performance over the medium term. The
government's decision to expand their presence in the energy sector relies on a significant increase to their capital expenditures and
is likely to require recurrent, and possibly augmented, transfers that could weigh on federal government finances. President López
Obrador has announced plans to rehabilitate six PEMEX refineries, build a new one worth $8 billion (0.7% of GDP) and increase
exploration and production of crude oil during his time in office. In line with this mandate, the draft proposal expands PEMEX's and
CFE's budgets by a total 0.4% of GDP relative to the 2018 budget, channeling these resources away from the federal government.
All in all, even after accounting for possible deviations from the government’s proposed fiscal targets, the sovereign’s strong fiscal
starting point provides a near-term buffer. The draft budget suggests that the federal government fiscal deficit will amount to 2.1% of
GDP, very much in line with our 2% of GDP forecast for 2019, and not materially wider than our 2018 projection of around 1.5% of
GDP (see exhibit). Moreover, the budget’s prudent overall stance should support investor confidence, relieving the sovereign of some of
the financial market and exchange rate volatility seen in recent months.
19 20 December 2018 Credit Outlook: 20 December 2018
Mexico's fiscal stance is broadly neutral in 2019 budget draft
(% of GDP unless otherwise indicated)
2018E* 2019F
Public sector fiscal balance -2.0 -2.0
o/w Federal government (incl. Social Security) balance -1.5 -2.1
Public sector primary balance 0.7 1.0
Public sector debt 45.3 45.6
o/w Federal government (incl. Social Security) debt 34.5 34.7
Budget assumptions
Real GDP growth (%) 2.3 2.0
Oil price (Mexican mix, $ per barrel) 62.5 55.0
*Moody's estimates
Sources: Mexico 2019 Budget Document and Moody's Investors Service
tommy271
Forumer storico
Su Pemex non c'è nulla di nuovo.
Il Messico ha un nuovo presidente.
Vediamo se il 2019 sarà l'anno degli Emergenti.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Un buon segnale dal nuovo governo:
López Obrador incluye al Ejército en su apuesta por resucitar a Pemex
López Obrador incluye al Ejército en su apuesta por resucitar a Pemex
zoroaster
Forumer attivo
parese que los "manitas" por fin se ponen las pilas.........esperamos tengan suerte
suléra
Forumer attivo
Ciao Tommy, ce lo dirà il tempo...
In questa prima settimana dell'anno quasi tutte le valute che osservo contro EUR hanno guadagnato : MXN, AUD, BRL, RUB, ZAR . circa il peso gli indicatori sul settimanale sono girati a nostro favore ed ancora non in ipercomprato, non è da escludere che si vada a toccare la bollinger inferiore
tommy271
Forumer storico
Lopez Obrador è già sotto pressione.
Diversi hedge fund hanno aperto dossier sul Messico.
Eurasia ha inserito la nazione tra le dieci criticità per il 2019.
***
La cruzada de López Obrador contra el robo de gasolina provoca el caos en el centro de México http://dlvr.it/QwFxLV
Diversi hedge fund hanno aperto dossier sul Messico.
Eurasia ha inserito la nazione tra le dieci criticità per il 2019.
***
La cruzada de López Obrador contra el robo de gasolina provoca el caos en el centro de México http://dlvr.it/QwFxLV
tommy271
Forumer storico
La alarma por la escasez de combustible se extiende a Ciudad de México http://dlvr.it/QwL9Np
Robo y desabasto de combustible en México: claves de una estrategia que ha alarmado a la población http://dlvr.it/QwLYYr
Robo y desabasto de combustible en México: claves de una estrategia que ha alarmado a la población http://dlvr.it/QwLYYr