Obbligazioni valute high yield MESSICO, PEMEX e Obbligazioni in pesos (MXN)

[Fabrib]

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's new leftist government on Saturday avoided major surprises in its closely watched first budget, sticking to fiscal promises made to investors who have been jittery about plans for Latin America's No. 2 economy.
The 2019 budget plan reflected "the absolute commitment to fiscal and financial discipline," Finance Minister Carlos Urzua told reporters after presenting it to Congress.
Still, Urzua forecast a jump in both government revenues and spending in real terms, presenting numbers that will be pored over by bondholders keen to ensure the projections in the document are credible.
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's ambitious plans for developing Mexico require cheap credit, and his team has sought to court wary international investors. However, in a sign of investor anxiety, debt yields have spiked since late October after he used a straw poll to justify scrapping a partly built $13 billion airport.
Urzua said the budget redirected spending toward Lopez Obrador's priorities, namely infrastructure and social outlays.
Some of the largest spending highlighted by Urzua included 100 billion pesos (£3.97 billion) in payments for the elderly and another 44 billion pesos ($2 billion) earmarked for unemployed youth.
The minister said overall government income was expected to rise by 6.3 percent in real terms in 2019 compared to the sum approved in the last budget. He argued that income in 2018 was higher than budgeted, making it easier to reach the 2019 target.
He proposed an increase in spending of 6.1 percent.

 

[Fabrib]

Mexico aims to lift oil and gas production by almost 50% in the next six years and in January will award infrastructure and drilling contracts to develop 20 fields.
"It's a new Pemex rescue," declared President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who took office on Dec. 1.
Under the plan, Mexican crude output is due to climb to some 2.624M barrels per day by the end of 2024, while gas production will also rise by about 50%.

 

[Fabrib]

Mexico does not plan to improve its latest offer to holders of $6bn in bonds issued to fund an airport that is now slated for cancellation, according to the finance ministry, despite a group claiming to represent 50 per cent of the bondholders having given it the thumbs down. (FT)

 

[tommy271]

¿Cómo va a crecer la producción petrolera de @Pemex en los siguientes 6 años? Aquí puedes verlo mes a mes: https://bit.ly/2A6qJE9

 

[pietro17elettra]

Questo da Moody's (riguarda sia il Messico che Pemex):

Mexico's budget maintains fiscal responsibility, but with little room for maneuver Originally published on 18 December 2018 On 15 December, Mexico's (A3 stable) President Andrés Manuel López Obrador submitted his government's 2019 budget proposal to Congress. The $289 billion budget anticipates a slower-than-expected rise in expenditures by offsetting new spending with cuts to public administration expenses, and indicates the government's commitment to fiscal responsibility, which should support market confidence. That said, revenue assumptions break with the previous practice of setting conservative targets, particularly for the tax intake, which will limit room for fiscal maneuver in the event of contingencies or adverse shocks. Moreover, transfers to Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX, Baa3 stable) and Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE, Baa1 stable) in the 2019 budget, which will likely remain in place throughout this administration, raises the risk that these state-owned entities would become a recurrent drain on federal government resources, potentially undermining the sovereign’s credit profile over the next six years. The budget targets a primary surplus of 1% of GDP in 2019 at the public sector level, from an estimated 0.7% in 2018, driven by a 6.1% growth in government spending and a 6.3% increase in revenue. If met, these targets should be enough to sustain debt-to-GDP at around 46% for the public sector and 35% for the federal government, supporting the sovereign's credit profile. Budget assumptions include 2% real GDP growth, 3.4% inflation and an average oil price of $55 per barrel in 2019, all of which are realistic in our view. Where the government is likely to fall short is in its 1.847 million barrels per day oil production target, which is broadly in line with 2018 production levels. Given declines of 9% in 2017, 8% in 2018 and the need for increased capital expenditures to stabilize production, we expect production levels to likely continue to decrease, which would ultimately weigh on the government's revenue intake because 19% of public sector revenue (14% for the federal government) come from oil. The budget incorporates tax stimulus measures in northern states that seek to support economic activity and job creation to curb the incidence of young people joining gangs and contributing to violence. The measures would cut value added taxes in the north to 8% from 16% in the rest of the country, and income tax by a third of the national level. This would subtract 0.2% of GDP from revenue according to the government's calculations. Although small, the decrease in overall revenue is to be offset by more efficient collection and tax compliance measures. The government's overall revenue projections will likely be challenging to meet. With no proposed tax reforms in place, the government expects tax revenue to increase by 3.8% even with the aforementioned tax cuts in place. On the expenditure side, much of the 1.1% of GDP in new expenditures on public investment and social programs will be offset by lower spending on public administration. The government plans to shrink several ministries, including transport, agriculture and environment, as well as reducing public salaries for high-level officials and cutting goods and services purchases. In all, the authorities expect these measures to decrease operational expenditures by 0.7% of GDP. Budgetary transfers to PEMEX and CFE pose the greatest source of uncertainty for fiscal performance over the medium term. The government's decision to expand their presence in the energy sector relies on a significant increase to their capital expenditures and is likely to require recurrent, and possibly augmented, transfers that could weigh on federal government finances. President López Obrador has announced plans to rehabilitate six PEMEX refineries, build a new one worth $8 billion (0.7% of GDP) and increase exploration and production of crude oil during his time in office. In line with this mandate, the draft proposal expands PEMEX's and CFE's budgets by a total 0.4% of GDP relative to the 2018 budget, channeling these resources away from the federal government. All in all, even after accounting for possible deviations from the government’s proposed fiscal targets, the sovereign’s strong fiscal starting point provides a near-term buffer. The draft budget suggests that the federal government fiscal deficit will amount to 2.1% of GDP, very much in line with our 2% of GDP forecast for 2019, and not materially wider than our 2018 projection of around 1.5% of GDP (see exhibit). Moreover, the budget’s prudent overall stance should support investor confidence, relieving the sovereign of some of the financial market and exchange rate volatility seen in recent months. 19 20 December 2018 Credit Outlook: 20 December 2018 Mexico's fiscal stance is broadly neutral in 2019 budget draft (% of GDP unless otherwise indicated) 2018E* 2019F Public sector fiscal balance -2.0 -2.0 o/w Federal government (incl. Social Security) balance -1.5 -2.1 Public sector primary balance 0.7 1.0 Public sector debt 45.3 45.6 o/w Federal government (incl. Social Security) debt 34.5 34.7 Budget assumptions Real GDP growth (%) 2.3 2.0 Oil price (Mexican mix, $ per barrel) 62.5 55.0 *Moody's estimates Sources: Mexico 2019 Budget Document and Moody's Investors Service

 

[Near]

¿Cómo va a crecer la producción petrolera de @Pemex en los siguientes 6 años? Aquí puedes verlo mes a mes: https://bit.ly/2A6qJE9

a ben guardare non è molto diverso dal declino venezuelano
mi sembra che l'investimento di liquidità sia l'unica cosa che tiene alto il livello di produzione e per giunta la prospezione petrolifera è la più redditizia.
quindi il venezuela proprio non ha messo più un centesimo sui suoi pozzi
PS: weatherford è sotto di brutto

 

[tommy271]

a ben guardare non è molto diverso dal declino venezuelano
mi sembra che l'investimento di liquidità sia l'unica cosa che tiene alto il livello di produzione e per giunta la prospezione petrolifera è la più redditizia.
quindi il venezuela proprio non ha messo più un centesimo sui suoi pozzi
PS: weatherford è sotto di brutto

Un pò diverso ... credo che in Messico il petrolio sia ormai in fase di esaurimento.
Mentre in Venezuela c'è ancora molto bitume da estrarre, ma non ci sono i mezzi.

 

[Near]

Un pò diverso ... credo che in Messico il petrolio sia ormai in fase di esaurimento.
Mentre in Venezuela c'è ancora molto bitume da estrarre, ma non ci sono i mezzi.

eppure la prospettiva è di un recupero dei livelli di produzione a seguito di investimenti, magari sarà meno redditizio ma fattibile.
alla fine sempre soldi servono per estrarre

 

[Fabrib]

Mexico’s central bank lifted its key lending rate by a quarter-point to 8.25 per cent, its highest in more than a decade, and held the door open to further moves in a hawkish statement highlighting risks ahead. (FT)

 

[tommy271]

eppure la prospettiva è di un recupero dei livelli di produzione a seguito di investimenti, magari sarà meno redditizio ma fattibile.
alla fine sempre soldi servono per estrarre

I pozzi vanno esaurendosi e non ci sono nuove scoperte... da molti anni.