Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond case automobilistiche e accessorio auto (1 Viewer)

Bosco

Forumer storico
Ciao Maino,avendo appena raddoppiato la mia quota nel 2033 spero vivamente che ormai sconti tutto e di più...attendo anche io un commento degli amici che sicuramente sono più preparati di mè.Buona serata.
 

samantaao

Forumer storico
su plus ho letto che diverse case hanno emesso obbligazioni:
-VW 16-11-2010 3,75% (sapete ISIN - taglio - mercato?)
-VW 15-11-2013 5,375% (sapete ISIN - taglio - mercato?)
-Renault triennale (sapete ISIN - taglio - mercato?)
-Peugeot 18 mesi (sapete ISIN - taglio - mercato?)
-Rolls royce decennale sterline 6,887%
 
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Imark

Forumer storico
e di peugeot ? certo, gli scenari non sono molto brillanti , però forse il prezzo del 2033 li sconta tutti, no ?
ho visto che poco alla volta sta risalendo dai suoi minimi , adesso sta superando quota 60 ...

è azzardato dire che il prezzo della peugeot sconta tutti gli scenari negativi, mentre quello di altre marche ancora no ?

:bow:

Ciao Maino, secondo il peggio che potrebbe accadere qui, fra qualche tempo, é una Peugeot ancora a rating HY mentre l'inflazione torna a salire (e con essa i tassi europei).

Nel breve termine, se GM andasse in default, i titoli del comparto potrebbero prendere qualche botta. Alla luce di quanto sopra, mi sembra tutto sommato correttamente quotata.

Potrebbe riprendersi nel caso in cui si mettesse mano al problema della sovraproduzione automobilistica in Europa, un problema che ha implicazioni tutte politiche, ma ad ampio raggio.

Finché la logica è quella per cui ciascun paese pensa all'orticello della produzione automobilistica propria, il mercato ragionerà in base alla capacità di ciascuna azienda di reagire alla crisi.

Peugeot al momento non è fra quelle messe meglio, sotto questo profilo...
 

Imark

Forumer storico
su plus ho letto che diverse case hanno emesso obbligazioni:
-VW 16-11-2010 3,75% (sapete ISIN - taglio - mercato?)
-VW 15-11-2013 5,375% (sapete ISIN - taglio - mercato?)
-Renault triennale (sapete ISIN - taglio - mercato?)
-Peugeot 18 mesi (sapete ISIN - taglio - mercato?)
-Rolls royce decennale sterline 6,887%

Ci sono gli ISIN sul file postato da Giontra :)up:) sul 3D delle nuove emissioni... non so se scambino già sui mercati retail tedeschi ed eventualmente su quali, ma sull'Euromercato quelle già scambiate ci sono di sicuro... ;)
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Intanto, il commento al downgrade di Toyota da parte di S&P sulle notizie dell'atteso calo del fatturato nonché delle perdite (operativa e netta) preventivate per l'esercizio di bilancio 2009-2010.

Peraltro c'è il cambio al vertice di Toyota, con l'incarico di CEO preso in carico da un esponente della famiglia Toyoda, un esponente della quale ha fondato la società.


Toyota Downgraded To 'AA' On Prolonged Profitability And Cash Flow Pressure; Outlook Negative

TOKYO (Standard & Poor's) May 8, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today lowered to 'AA' from 'AA+' its long-term corporate credit ratings on Japan-based automaker Toyota Motor Corp. (Toyota) and a number of related entities, including Toyota Financial Services Corp. (TFS), Toyota Finance Corp., and Toyota Motor Credit Corp. (TMCC).

At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term corporate credit ratings on Toyota and the related entities, and its 'A-1+' short-term debt ratings (including CP programs) on the related entities. The outlooks on the long-term ratings on the companies are negative.

The rating actions on Toyota and the related entities follow the announcement by Toyota on May 8, 2009, of weak earnings guidance for fiscal 2009 (ending March 31, 2010).

The rating actions also reflect Standard & Poor's view that the deterioration in global auto markets will continue to pressure Toyota's profitability and cash flow through at least the current fiscal year, and may delay a recovery in Toyota's operating and financial performance.

On May 8, 2009, Toyota announced its financial results for fiscal 2008 (ended March 31, 2009) and its earnings forecast for fiscal 2009 (ending March 31, 2010). A large decline in sales and the appreciation of the yen against foreign currencies severely impacted fiscal 2008 results, and led to the company's first operating loss since the fiscal year ended March 1938.

The company projects global sales of 6.5 million units for the current fiscal year, down 14.1% from the 7.56 million units sold in fiscal 2008. The company also projects continuous operating losses of ¥850 billion and a net loss of ¥550 billion for this fiscal year.

Toyota's automotive debt increased to ¥1.79 trillion at the end of March 2009 from ¥1.30 trillion a year earlier, reflecting significantly reduced operating cash flow. Standard & Poor's believes that Toyota's capital structure and overall net liquidity position, including cash equivalents and high-quality debt investment securities classified as non-current investments, will remain weaker in fiscal 2009 and possibly in fiscal 2010 than in the past few years. Nevertheless, we also believe that Toyota maintains a minimal financial risk profile, characterized by a strong capital structure with massive liquidity.

We currently expect Toyota to significantly reduce negative free cash flow in fiscal 2009, excluding proceeds from sales of and maturity of marketable securities and security investments. Toyota plans to substantially reduce its capital expenditure this fiscal year to meet weakened demand and cash flow in the challenging environment. Standard & Poor's is also of the opinion that Toyota now has adequate control of its overall inventory and that working capital pressures will likely ease in fiscal 2009.

The negative outlooks reflect Standard & Poor's view that Toyota's depressed profitability and cash flows have led to deterioration of the company's financial profile to a certain extent, and that recovery in the company's financial profile may be delayed due to the challenging operating environment.

We also believe that global auto demand will almost certainly remain depressed throughout calendar 2009, a situation that is likely to continue into 2010, although "scrap incentives" or similar stimulus measures introduced or being planned in major markets, such as Germany, the U.S., and Japan, could support short-term demand to a certain extent.

The ratings on Toyota could come under further downward pressure if prolonged deterioration in the global auto markets were to lead to sustained substantial losses and negative free cash flow, even if the company were to take more rigorous measures in response to the challenging operating environment.

The outlook could see upward movement if measures taken by Toyota generate signs of a recovery in profitability and cash flow over the next two years. However, Standard & Poor's believes this scenario is relatively
unlikely, at least in the short term. While Toyota is a leader among global auto manufacturers with a formidable degree of competitiveness and particular strengths in terms of its robust product line-ups, technological leadership, geographic diversity, cost efficiency, and financial strength, recovery in the global auto markets is key for Toyota to fully demonstrate these strengths.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Intanto, per S&P, il rating Fiat resta sotto osservazione per una ulteriore riduzione a quota BB. Se i parametri di valutazione sono quelli indicati in grassetto, evitare il downgrade per Fiat sarà impresa tutt'altro che facile, anche perché lo spin off di Fiat Auto a chiusura dell'operazione Chrysler e di quella Opel ed il suo collocamento in Borsa come entità autonoma mi sembra, ben che vada, una maniera intelligente per gli Agnelli di sganciare le proprie sorti dal destino dell'automotive (ed aggiungo: sempre che ci siano le condizioni di mercato per poter condurre un'operazione del genere).

Italy's Fiat SpA 'BB+' Rating Still On Watch Neg On Continued Weak Liquidity And Possible Change In Group Structure

MILAN (Standard & Poor's) May 6, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that its 'BB+' long-term corporate credit rating on Italian industrial group Fiat SpA remains on CreditWatch with negative implications, where it was placed on Jan. 22, 2009. At the same time, the 'B' short-term corporate credit rating was affirmed.

"The CreditWatch status reflects our view of Fiat's weak liquidity profile and the possible change in group structure as a result of Fiat's willingness to assess the viability of a merger of the activities of Fiat Group Automobiles (including the interest in Chrysler) and General Motors Europe into a new company," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Castellano.

We view the current situation as very unpredictable since it involves several companies and governments. We expect to monitor any developments over the coming weeks and comment or take rating actions as we deem appropriate.

On April 30, 2009, Fiat closed an agreement with the U.S. government giving the Italian company 20% of the equity of the reorganized Chrysler that will emerge from the bankruptcy process. In exchange, Chrysler will be able to use some of Fiat's intellectual properties and technologies, as well as receive ongoing management services to help it in the turnaround. Fiat will also have the right to receive up to 15% in additional equity in three 5% tranches, each in exchange for meeting certain technical performance metrics.

In addition, Fiat will receive an option to acquire another 16% shareholding between Jan. 1, 2013, and June 30, 2016, under specific conditions.

We consider the turnaround of Chrysler to be a challenging target that will require the dedication of a number of managers and technical employees of the Fiat group.

On top of this initiative, Fiat intends to merge its automobile activities with General Motor's European subsidiaries Opel and Vauxhall. This merger is now under discussion with the German government, which is under public pressure to financially support the German automaker
Opel.

If this second deal is concluded, the auto group resulting from the joining of Fiat Group Automobiles, Chrysler, and Opel/Vauxhall would produce about 6 million vehicles annually.

In this case, Fiat would evaluate several corporate structures, including the potential spin off of Fiat Group Automobiles and the subsequent listing of a new company that combines those activities with the activities of General Motors Europe.

We aim to resolve the CreditWatch listing once we have received enough information on the conclusion of Fiat's discussions to enlarge its auto activities through the merger with General Motor's European activities.

Before the resolution, we also expect to gain more clarity on the structure of the Fiat group and on the initial steps Fiat is undertaking to improve the situation at Chrysler.

"We will focus our attention on Fiat's capacity to generate cash and fulfill its financial obligations, its ability to strengthen its current weak liquidity profile, and the evolution of the Fiat group's operating performance in the current difficult market environment," said Ms. Castellano. "We aim to solve the CreditWatch listing in the next 90 days, but if this is impossible due to the lack of the needed information, we will provide an updated opinion on the issue."
 
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samantaao

Forumer storico
Ci sono gli ISIN sul file postato da Giontra :)up:) sul 3D delle nuove emissioni... non so se scambino già sui mercati retail tedeschi ed eventualmente su quali, ma sull'Euromercato quelle già scambiate ci sono di sicuro... ;)

:up:

per' la Peugeot 18 mesi non l'ho trovata a meno che non abbiano sbagliato a scrivere e sia la 2012...
thanks
 

Imark

Forumer storico
La vicenda Porsche-VW innesca il creditwatch negativo di S&P verso VW e la controllata Scania (che per questa agenzia erano a rating A-). Sulla scorta delle recenti dichiarazioni, provenienti da VW, per cui l'obiettivo finale della vicenda sarebbe una fusione completa fra VW stessa e Porsche.

Peraltro, che il profilo finanziario di Porsche sia pesantemente indebolito dai costi della scalata a VW si è detto più volte e che l'obiettivo ultimo delle trattative attuali sia quello di migliorare tale situazione mediante la possibilità di attingere alla robusta dote di liquidità di cui è munita VW, anche.

La fusione completa comporterebbe una diluzione del debito di Porsche nella più ampia struttura di VW.

Il problema resta sempre la quota del 20% in VW del Land della Bassa Sassonia, che impedirebbe cmq a Porsche - contrario il land - di acquisire quella maggioranza dell'80% necessaria ad adottare alcune importanti decisioni sulle strategie della società. S&P esprime una buona dose di scetticismo circa il fatto che il land possa rinunciare alla posizione che riveste attualmente in seno a VW.

German Carmaker Volkswagen And Swedish Truck Subsidiary Scania 'A-' Ratings Put On Watch Negative Re Porsche Merger

MILAN (Standard & Poor's) May 8, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has placed its 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating on German automotive manufacturer Volkswagen AG (VW) and its Swedish subsidiary, truck and bus manufacturer Scania (publ.) AB, on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, the 'A-2' short-term corporate credit rating on both companies was affirmed.

Standard & Poor's also placed the following ratings on VW-related
entities on CreditWatch with negative implications:

-- The 'A/A-1' long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on
Volkswagen Bank GmbH;
-- The 'A-' long-term counterparty credit rating on Volkswagen Financial Services AG and LeasePlan Corporation N.V.; the 'A-2' short-term counterparty credit rating on both companies was affirmed; and
-- The 'K-1' short-term Nordic national scale rating on Volkswagen Finans Sverige AB.

The 'K-1' short-term Nordic national scale rating on Scania CV AB's Swedish krona 10 billion commercial paper program is also on CreditWatch with negative implications.

"The VW CreditWatch listing reflects our overall concern about the potential impact on VW of Porsche's credit quality and its prominent role as VW's largest shareholder," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Castellano.

Going forward, Standard & Poor's will assess the evolution of the group's structure considering VW's recent announcement that it will merge into one company with Porsche.

Due to the complex balance of power among VW stakeholders, the structure of the merger will, in our view, probably have to reconcile a number of diverging interests.

We believe that, over the past two years, Porsche has departed from its formerly relatively conservative financial policy by debt financing its stake increase in VW. In January 2009, Porsche achieved an absolute majority of VW's voting rights, with the ownership of 50.76% of the ordinary shares.

"We see that Porsche is now under pressure, due to the large amount of financial debt it accumulated to buy these shares," said Ms. Castellano. "Any merger solution could, in our opinion, incorporate actions to alleviate this pressure."

Despite Porsche's majority stake, the State of Lower Saxony, which owns 20% of VW, can, according to Germany's Volkswagen law, prevent Porsche from achieving the 80% super-majority requirement for certain important corporate decisions. Also, the State of Lower Saxony must approve the merger for it to proceed. We understand that the State of Lower Saxony has a strong interest in maintaining its blocking minority power and believe that any merger plan will probably have to take this into consideration.

"Our CreditWatch listing of Scania, of which VW owns 45.66% of the capital and 70.94% of the voting shares, is based on Standard & Poor's parent-subsidiary rating criteria and reflects the possibility of our lowering
our opinion of Scania's credit quality as a result of the VW group's restructuring," added Ms. Castellano.

This could result from a change in Scania's financial or business profile, if it becomes directly involved in the VW group's restructuring. We could also downgrade Scania if we perceive, under our parent-subsidiary rating criteria, that Scania will remain subject to group risk through VW's exercise of its voting power or through other means of influence, in the absence of offsetting protective measures and incentives. At this stage, we expect that in such a case our rating on Scania will unlikely be higher than that on VW.

We aim to resolve the CreditWatch placements within the next 90 days.

"The resolution will take into account our examination of further information to enable us to form a view on the new company's structure, with a particular focus on the financial profile resulting from the merger; the new company's willingness to maintain the conservative financial policy that VW has maintained to date; the impact of governance rules that change the normal balance of power among the shareholders; and the effects of the continued tough market conditions we expect in the automotive sector in 2009 and 2010," said Ms. Castellano
 

Maino

Senior Member
Nel breve termine, se GM andasse in default, i titoli del comparto potrebbero prendere qualche botta.

scusa mark, ti faccio una domanda in riferimento a quanto quotato del tuo messaggio : è una affermazione che ho letto e sentito da più parti, quella che l'eventuale fallimente di gm sarebbe una botta per gli altri players , e sicuramente sarà così , però devo ammettere che non la capisco appieno...

mi spiego meglio : io penso che , in un mondo competitivo , se manca un concorrente gli altri che rimangono potrebbero trarre beneficio. Vale a dire, se la torta è sempre la stessa, ma manca un concorrente, beh, vi sono più probabilità che la mia fetta sia più grossa...

cos'è che non va nel mio ragionamento ?

ciao

:mumble:
 

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