Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond case automobilistiche e accessorio auto (1 Viewer)

[paologorgo]

forse ha più senso postarlo qui, parla essenzialmente di FIAT...

Fiat: Fix It Again, Taxpayers


By LIAM DENNING

Let's hope Sergio Marchionne takes his vitamins.
The Fiat chief executive hopes to weld together a new global car giant from a nimble, if small, Italian car maker and scrap from Detroit. Mr. Marchionne, a lawyer by training, knows a golden deal-making opportunity when he sees one. But even if he succeeds, Fiat investors face a long, tense wait for any reward.
The economic crisis and Detroit's crash provide Fiat with a chance to remake the landscape of the auto business -- with taxpayers lending a hand.

Fiat sold 2.2 million cars last year. Adding General Motors' European Opel operation, as Mr. Marchionne hopes, would bring another 1.5 million. Eventual control of Chrysler, where -- bankruptcy court willing -- Fiat will soon hold a 20% stake, would result in a truly global group making about six million vehicles a year. Fiat would jump to second place in Europe, behind Volkswagen.
Fiat is giving very little in exchange, letting governments desperate to mitigate job losses take on much of the financing risk. The U.S. government has already contributed or promised $12 billion to keep Chrysler going -- or, crudely put, about $314,000 per U.S. employee of the car maker. Fiat would hope to gain a similar helping hand from Berlin if a deal on Opel can be struck.
Getting taxpayers to bankroll a plan to transform a struggling car business into a global contender -- at least on paper -- is genius. But Fiat's investors, who pushed its stock up 8.1% Monday, are taking too much for granted.
What Fiat's new auto business would look like is anyone's guess. Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Max Warburton reckons a group comprised of Fiat auto, 20% of Chrysler and, say, 30% of Opel might have an enterprise value of €8 billion ($10.6 billion). Once existing debts including pension liabilities are stripped out, though, and investors remember all three elements are either loss making or barely profitable, it isn't clear there is any equity value in there. A capital raise to realize an eventual spinoff of the combined business from Fiat looks a real possibility.
All this assumes Mr. Marchionne can execute on his grand plan. This will involve him juggling politicians, unions and investors across multiple geographies. The experience of Carlos "Two Briefcases" Ghosn trying to run Renault and Nissan offers a cautionary tale.
Moreover, making a go of a new Fiat auto business ultimately boils down to reaping synergies and a cut to industry overcapacity overall. Yet the politicians offering aid to grease Fiat's wheels are doing so precisely in order to preserve that overcapacity for as long as possible.
Investors hoping for merger benefits to flow to the bottom line must have faith that Mr. Marchionne will have the time and energy to finesse this inherent tension.
Write to Liam Denning at [email protected]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124146026387984147.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

 

[Imark]

La capacità di Continental di soddisfare le scadenze debitorie nel prossimo biennio continua ad essere ritenuta "a rischio" da parte delle agenzie di rating... Da ultima è Fitch a mettere in osservazione per l'ennesimo downgrade il rating del produttore di pneumatici tedesco.

Per chi volesse ricostruire le precedenti puntate della storia, basterà scorrere all'indietro le pagine del 3D.

Fitch Places Continental AG on Rating Watch Negative

30 Apr 2009 5:49 AM (EDT)


Fitch Ratings-London/Frankfurt/Dubai-30 April 2009: Fitch Ratings has today placed Continental AG's (Continental) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating of 'BB', respectively, on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). At the same time, Fitch has affirmed Continental's Short-term IDR at 'B'.

The rating action reflects Fitch's growing concerns about Continental's financial profile against the slump in global vehicle production and the agency's expectation of a protracted weak auto environment negatively impacting Continental's profitability, free cash flow (FCF) generation and ability to reduce its leverage.

The group faces considerable refinancing risk for its EUR3.5bn tranche, related to its Siemens VDO acquisition facility, maturing in August 2010. In addition, the weakening operating performance amid the severe global auto crisis has tightened financial covenant headroom.

While Continental has stated that it was able to comply with financial covenants as of Q109, Fitch believes that ongoing compliance will remain challenging, which could lead to further amendments during 2009 as recently seen for several US suppliers.

Fitch notes that Continental renegotiated the contractual terms of its main credit facilities in January 2009, allowing for more leeway in its financial leverage covenants (peak level was raised to 4.75x in terms of net debt/EBITDA during FY09).

Against this backdrop Continental intends to present a strategic proposal within 100 days to address the group's financing issues and the extent of cooperation with its major shareholder, Schaeffler KG (Schaeffler). Fitch believes that possible steps such as refinancing and/or equity measures, as well as asset disposals are exposed to a high level of execution risk given difficult financial market conditions.

While the investment agreement between Schaeffler and Continental from August 2008 remains in force, Schaeffler's high indebtedness continues to create uncertainty. Under the agreement, Schaeffler has committed to support Continental's existing strategy and business policies and to not demand a sale of activities or other material structural measures. Cooperation of both groups has so far been limited to joint purchasing activities.

Fitch intends to resolve the RWN once it has assessed Continental's strategic proposal. In view of the uncertainties about the impact of the ownership structure, any downgrade could be more than one notch subject to the group's progress in resolving its financial issues.

Continental reported a 35% y-o-y decline in sales to EUR4.3bn at end-Q109 and an adjusted negative EBIT EUR47m versus EBIT EUR582m (before purchase price amortisation of intangible assets, changes in the scope of consolidation and special effects).

The group stated that its available liquidity was nearly EUR2.9bn at end-Q109 consisting of cash and equivalents of EUR1,207m and undrawn credit facilities of EUR1,686m. Short-term indebtedness stood at EUR2,674m, while total debt was EUR12.3bn, slightly higher than FYE08's level of EUR12.1bn (for further information on European auto suppliers' liquidity profiles please refer to "Liquidity Focus: European Auto Suppliers", published on 16 April 2009 and available on www.fitchresearch.com).

The group's ratings continue to be supported by its strong market positions within a broad product portfolio, particularly in fuel-efficient technology as well as safety. Therefore, Fitch expects that in the medium-term Continental will benefit from key industry trends such as more environmental-friendly cars as well as from expected sector consolidation.

Especially in the US, major auto suppliers such as Delphi and Visteon, the main suppliers to GM and Ford respectively, are shrinking their operations drastically due to severe problems facing the OEMs. Fitch also takes into account Continental's extensive restructuring measures to support its FCF generation, including a sizeable cost-cutting programme and the reduction or postponement of capital expenditure, R&D spending and dividends.

Continental is one of the five largest global automotive suppliers with sales of EUR24bn in FY08 and an adjusted EBIT margin of 7.6%. It focuses on brake systems, vehicle electronics, power train and chassis systems, engineering elastomers, and tyres

 

[Imark]

Conti trimestrali di BMW: meno peggio del previsto. Il calo delle vendite è stato contenuto al 13%, la perdita netta registrata da BMW auto (251 mln euro) si confronta con quella di Mercedes-Benz (1,12 mld euro), la perdita netta complessiva di BMW si è attestata a quota 152 mln euro.

Reitera un target di calo del mercato automobilistico globale fra il 10% ed il 20% quest'anno e nessuna ripresa fino al 2010, di un target di EBITDA margin per la divisione auto fra l'8% ed il 10% entro il 2012; indica consegne in calo del 21% nel Q1/2009 e del 23% per il marchio BMW ad aprile 2009.

Le vendite dovrebbero essere supportate dalle nuove versioni dei modelli di autovetture BMW più popolari, che saranno introdotte sul mercato a partire dal prossimo anno e fino al 2011.

In un anno ha ridotto la forza lavoro del 7,3%.

BMW Has Narrower-Than-Estimated Loss on Job Cutbacks (Update2)

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s biggest maker of luxury vehicles, reported a narrower loss than analysts estimated after cutting the workforce and curtailing production as the global recession trampled demand.

BMW rose to a 7 1/2-month high in Frankfurt trading after saying it had a first-quarter net loss of 152 million euros ($202 million) compared with a profit of 487 million euros a year earlier. Four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a median loss of 268 million euros. Sales fell 13 percent to 11.5 billion euros, Munich-based BMW said today in a statement.

Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz Cars posted a loss of 1.12 billion euros last quarter, compared with a 251 million-euro deficit at BMW’s auto unit. Both companies are trimming spending and eliminating jobs as the global recession plunges the auto industry into its worst crisis in decades.

Industrywide car sales in the U.S., BMW’s largest market, fell 34 percent in April, the 18th monthly decline in a row.

“If you compare them with Mercedes, they had already put through steep production cuts in the fourth quarter,” said Mike Tyndall, an automotive analyst at Nomura Securities in London. “By cutting early, they had less to do” last quarter.

BMW rose as much as 2.10 euros, or 7.6 percent, to 29.59 euros, the highest intraday price since Sept. 23, and was up 5.5 percent as of 12:29 p.m. in Frankfurt. The stock has risen 34 percent this year, valuing BMW at 18.4 billion euros.

Sales Decline

The company, which also makes motorcycles, reiterated a forecast that sales will drop in 2009, dragged down by a 10 percent to 20 percent slump in global auto markets. First- quarter deliveries fell 21 percent.

April vehicle sales by the BMW brand fell by about 23 percent, while the drop in Mini deliveries last month was less than 20 percent, Chief Executive Officer Norbert Reithofer said today on a conference call with journalists.

“It’s too early to sound the all-clear,” as the end of the global recession is “not yet in sight,” Reithofer said. “We don’t anticipate a stable recovery before 2010,” he added, declining to predict earnings for the remainder of this year.

Profit this year is under threat from “strong” price pressure as competitors offer discounts to clear unsold vehicles, Chief Financial Officer Friedrich Eichiner said on the call. Pricing pressure is likely to ease in the course of 2009 as production cuts reduce inventories, he said.

Margin Target

BMW lost 963 million euros in the last three months of 2008, its first deficit since at least 2001. The company said it’s sticking to an automaking profit-margin target for 2012 of 8 percent to 10 percent of sales. BMW plans to introduce new versions of the 1-, 3-, and 5-Series, its three best-selling models, from next year through 2012.

The manufacturer, which also makes Mini and Rolls-Royce brands, scaled back production by 78,000 vehicles this year after reducing hours for 26,000 workers at plants in the German towns of Regensburg and Dingolfing.

The company built almost 10,000 fewer vehicles than it sold in the first quarter, cutting inventories. About 8,000 employees returned to normal hours this month at Regensburg, where BMW assembles the 3-Series sedan and Z4 roadster.

More than 900 people left the company in the first quarter, reducing BMW’s workforce to 99,100 employees, 7.3 percent fewer than a year earlier. BMW will be selective when filling vacant positions and will continue to offer buyouts and early retirement packages to trim headcount further, Reithofer said.

Daimler Cooperation

The company began cooperating on parts purchases in March with Mercedes-Benz, which ranks second to BMW in making luxury cars, and said at the time more “major” joint projects are possible as a way of cutting costs. Talks with Stuttgart, Germany-based Daimler are continuing, while cooperation between the two manufacturers’ financing units isn’t under consideration, the CEO said.

Moody’s Investors Service cut BMW’s long-term debt rating on April 3 by one level to A3, the fourth-lowest investment grade. The credit rating company kept the carmaker on watch for another potential downgrade, citing a “severe and rapid downturn in demand for BMW’s vehicles.”

The global auto slump has hurt parts suppliers, forcing some into insolvency and burdening BMW’s earnings by more than 10 million euros in the first quarter. CFO Eichiner said he anticipates more charges this year stemming from helping troubled component makers. The costs is likely to be limited to the range seen in the first three months of the year, he said.

 

[Imark]

Porsche pare intenzionata a finalizzare velocemente l'acquisizione del 75% delle azioni di VW, così da acquisirne il pieno controllo.

Porsche shares down after integration announcement

By MATT MOORE

FRANKFURT
Shares of automaker Porsche SE slid nearly 16 percent Thursday in the wake of the company's announcement it plans to form an integrated car company with Volkswagen AG, the latest instance of consolidation in the recession-hit industry.

Shares of Stuttgart-based Porsche plunged 15.7 percent to euro47.99 ($63.93) in Frankfurt as investors pored over the announcement late Wednesday. Porsche is already the biggest shareholder in the Wolfsburg-based maker of VW, Bentley and Bugatti with 51 percent.

It also appeared to signal the latest consolidation among the global auto industry. Italy's Fiat SpA is in the midst of joining up with bankrupt Chrysler LLC while pursuing GM Europe units Opel, Saab and Vauxhall.

But whether it is an actual merger remained unclear. Neither company referred to it as one -- at least in the financial sense -- and it is not clear whether the German state of Lower Saxony, which owns just more than 20 percent of Volkswagen, would ride along with the plan. Lower Saxony's stake gives it a blocking minority in VW, Europe's biggest carmaker by sales.

"After the news there are more new riddles than answers especially if Lower Saxony is included in the discussions in the coming four weeks," UniCredit said in a research note.

Volkswagen works council chief Bernd Osterloh said Thursday that "the road to an integrated company is completely open," but stopped short of calling it an outright merger.

"(A) merger is only one way. It appears that the terms merger and integration are being used interchangeably here. And, because of VW's bylaws alone, we are more than skeptical that the way for a merger can be made clear at all," Osterloh said Thursday at a conference in Wolfsburg, which CEO Martin Winterkorn also attended.

Volkswagen AG shares were up 1.3 percent to euro235.70.

The statement came following private meetings Wednesday in Salzburg, Austria of the Piech and Porsche families -- the controlling shareholders of Porsche Automobil Holding.

The two families agreed on what Porsche called an integrated car-manufacturing group, a decision resulting from "intensive talks about the deepening of the cooperation" which included discussing "the inclusion of capital measures."

Under the terms of the proposal, the 10 brands of both companies "shall stand below an integrative leading company alongside each other, whereby the independence of all brands and explicitly also of Porsche shall be ensured," Porsche said.

Volkswagen's brands also include Skoda, Seat, and Scania trucks.
But any decision must still be approved by both companies' boards as well as Lower Saxony.

In a statement, Wolfsburg-based Volkswagen said it welcomed the decision.

"During the next four weeks, a joint working group whose members will come from Volkswagen and Porsche will consult intensively with the state of Lower Saxony and the work force at both companies to prepare the basis for a decision on the future structure," Volkswagen said, adding that its board would do "do everything in its power to support this process."

 

[yellow]

Nel settore automotive con i doverosi distinguo,
occorre rilevare che " non si salva nessuno " dalla dieta :

08.05.09 10:46 - Toyota: S&P taglia rating da AA+ a AA, outlook negativo

TOKYO (MF-DJ)--Standard & Poor's ha tagliato il rating sul debito di lungo periodo di Toyota da AA+ ad AA , confermando quello di breve periodo ad A-1+, con outlook negativo.


L'agenzia di rating ha spiegato che il downgrade fa seguito alla pubblicazione di deboli dati trimestrali e un debole outlook per il 2009.

Gli analisti ritengono inoltre che il deterioramento del settore automobilistico globale continuera' ad esercitare pressioni sulla redditivita' e sul cash flow della casa automobilistica almeno per tutto l'anno in corso, ritardando la ripresa del gruppo.

 

[Imark]

Qualche altra info giornalistica sulla chiusura dei conti di Toyota, che dimezza il dividendo per compensare l'effetto di future perdite e si accinge a lanciare nuovi bond per l'equivalente di 7,7 mld $. Le stime di perdite operative per quest'anno sono decisamente pesanti, molto superiori a quelle dell'esercizio fiscale chiusosi nel marzo 2009.

Vara inoltre consistenti piani di tagli a costi ed investimenti, sebbene faccia presente come ciò sia insufficiente a contrastare contestualmente il calo delle vendite e lo yen forte, che anche concorre non poco a ridurre gli utili per la forte esposizione di Toyota ai mercati USA.

Toyota Cuts Dividend, Forecasts Loss on Lower Sales (Update1)

By Naoko Fujimura and Makiko Kitamura

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, cut its annual dividend for the first time and predicted a loss that’s almost twice analysts’ estimates as global car demand plunges.

The loss may total 550 billion yen ($5.5 billion) for the year ending March 2010, compared with a loss of 436.9 billion yen a year earlier, the company said in a statement today. The maker of Lexus LS sedans and Corolla compacts was expected to forecast a loss of 284 billion yen, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The 72-year-old automaker, which posted its first loss in almost six decades last year, said it lowered the dividend to stem further losses. Incoming President Akio Toyoda, 53, will be responsible for reviving sales and cutting costs as rising unemployment and falling wages in the U.S., Europe and Japan sap car sales.

“All Toyota can do now is save costs as much as possible and wait until the uproar subsides,” said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo, which manages $28 billion. “The company needs to build a foundation to turn profitable next fiscal year.”

Separately, Toyota registered to sell as much as 700 billion yen in bonds, according to a filing to the Japanese finance ministry today. The two-year registration goes into effect on May 16, the filing said.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services cut Toyota’s long-term credit rating to AA from AA+, S&P’s third-highest investment grade ranking. A lower credit rating may boost borrowing costs.

Dividend Cut

Toyota will pay a second-half dividend of 35 yen per share, compared with 75 yen a year ago. The cut ends a streak in which the annual dividend jumped sixfold in 10 years. Toyota pays dividends twice a year. Last year, the pay-outs totaled 140 yen a share.

The lower forecast and dividend cut comes as the credit crisis, sparked in the U.S. last year, has crippled car demand worldwide and led to a reshuffle of the auto industry. In the U.S., Chrysler LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on April 30 to reorganize with Italy’s Fiat SpA.
and General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, is racing to beat a June 1 deadline to restructure outside of bankruptcy courts.

In Europe, Porsche SE’s controlling shareholders, the Porsche and Piech families, agreed to create a combined company with its Volkswagen AG unit on May 6, ending the sports-car maker’s bid to increase control over Volkswagen, Europe’s largest automaker.

Operating Loss

Toyota fell 1.5 percent to 3,980 yen in Tokyo Stock Exchange trading today before earnings were announced, curbing gains for the year to 37 percent.

The automaker forecasts an operating loss of 850 billion yen this fiscal year, compared with operating loss of 461 billion yen a year earlier.

Vehicle sales may fall 14 percent to 6.5 million in the 12- month period, Toyota said. North America sales may fall 16 percent to 1.86 million vehicles.

Toyota aims to cut production-related costs by 340 billion yen and fixed costs by 460 billion yen this fiscal year, the company said today. The automaker, which has already decided to eliminate bonuses for board members, said last month it will reduce managers’ summer bonuses in Japan by 60 percent.

Spending Cuts

The maker of Prius hybrid cars also plans to slash its capital spending by 36 percent to 830 billion yen and research spending by 9.3 percent to 820 billion yen.

The company plans to release four new hybrid vehicles in Japan and three new ones overseas this fiscal year. The company cut production-related costs for the new Prius by 30 percent, compared with the previous version, President Katsuaki Watanabe said at a press conference.

“We can make up for a drop in sales with the cost reduction,” he said. Still, “it’s not enough to cover” a stronger yen.

Toyoda, the grandson of the company’s founder, was named president on Jan. 20. He will succeed Watanabe, who will become vice chairman, in June. Toyoda has replaced some of Toyota’s top executives to guide the company through the current industry crisis. In February he rehired Yoshimi Inaba to help improve North American sales and assembly operations.

Strong yen

Japanese automakers are struggling to offset the yen’s 13 percent average gain against the dollar last quarter, which is eroding the value of sales in the U.S., the world’s biggest auto market. Industrywide sales are down 37 percent through the first four months of the year.

“Toyota may be forecasting a loss, but I think they will be very aggressive in cutting costs to turn a profit in the end,” said Toshio Konishi, who helps manage about $1.3 billion at Polar Capital Partners in Tokyo, including Toyota shares.

Every 1 yen gain against the dollar and euro trims Toyota’s annual operating profit by about 30 billion yen and 4 billion yen, it said today.
The company based its full-year forecast on exchange rates of 95 yen against the dollar and 125 yen per euro, compared with 101 yen and 144 yen last year.

Toyota had a loss of 766 billion yen in the three months ended March, capping its first annual loss in 59 years.

 

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Porsche pare intenzionata a finalizzare velocemente l'acquisizione del 75% delle azioni di VW, così da acquisirne il pieno controllo.

Porsche shares down after integration announcement

By MATT MOORE

FRANKFURT
Shares of automaker Porsche SE slid nearly 16 percent Thursday in the wake of the company's announcement it plans to form an integrated car company with Volkswagen AG, the latest instance of consolidation in the recession-hit industry.

Shares of Stuttgart-based Porsche plunged 15.7 percent to euro47.99 ($63.93) in Frankfurt as investors pored over the announcement late Wednesday. Porsche is already the biggest shareholder in the Wolfsburg-based maker of VW, Bentley and Bugatti with 51 percent.

It also appeared to signal the latest consolidation among the global auto industry. Italy's Fiat SpA is in the midst of joining up with bankrupt Chrysler LLC while pursuing GM Europe units Opel, Saab and Vauxhall.

But whether it is an actual merger remained unclear. Neither company referred to it as one -- at least in the financial sense -- and it is not clear whether the German state of Lower Saxony, which owns just more than 20 percent of Volkswagen, would ride along with the plan. Lower Saxony's stake gives it a blocking minority in VW, Europe's biggest carmaker by sales.

"After the news there are more new riddles than answers especially if Lower Saxony is included in the discussions in the coming four weeks," UniCredit said in a research note.

Volkswagen works council chief Bernd Osterloh said Thursday that "the road to an integrated company is completely open," but stopped short of calling it an outright merger.

"(A) merger is only one way. It appears that the terms merger and integration are being used interchangeably here. And, because of VW's bylaws alone, we are more than skeptical that the way for a merger can be made clear at all," Osterloh said Thursday at a conference in Wolfsburg, which CEO Martin Winterkorn also attended.

Volkswagen AG shares were up 1.3 percent to euro235.70.

The statement came following private meetings Wednesday in Salzburg, Austria of the Piech and Porsche families -- the controlling shareholders of Porsche Automobil Holding.

The two families agreed on what Porsche called an integrated car-manufacturing group, a decision resulting from "intensive talks about the deepening of the cooperation" which included discussing "the inclusion of capital measures."

Under the terms of the proposal, the 10 brands of both companies "shall stand below an integrative leading company alongside each other, whereby the independence of all brands and explicitly also of Porsche shall be ensured," Porsche said.

Volkswagen's brands also include Skoda, Seat, and Scania trucks.
But any decision must still be approved by both companies' boards as well as Lower Saxony.

In a statement, Wolfsburg-based Volkswagen said it welcomed the decision.

"During the next four weeks, a joint working group whose members will come from Volkswagen and Porsche will consult intensively with the state of Lower Saxony and the work force at both companies to prepare the basis for a decision on the future structure," Volkswagen said, adding that its board would do "do everything in its power to support this process."

Ed infatti :

08.05.09 12:20 - Vw: Moody's pone sotto osservazione rating per downgrade
FRANCOFORTE (MF-DJ)--Moody's ha posto sotto osservazione il rating sul debito di lungo periodo A3 di Volkswagen per un possibile downgrade.


Gli analisti hanno giustificato la decisione con l'annuncio della possibile merger con Porsche.

Il broker ritiene infatti che esista il rischio che la combinazione delle due societa' possa risultare in un'entita' con un profilo finanziario non in linea con l'attuale giudizio assegnato al gruppo.

 

[Imark]

Ed infatti :

08.05.09 12:20 - Vw: Moody's pone sotto osservazione rating per downgrade
FRANCOFORTE (MF-DJ)--Moody's ha posto sotto osservazione il rating sul debito di lungo periodo A3 di Volkswagen per un possibile downgrade.


Gli analisti hanno giustificato la decisione con l'annuncio della possibile merger con Porsche.

Il broker ritiene infatti che esista il rischio che la combinazione delle due societa' possa risultare in un'entita' con un profilo finanziario non in linea con l'attuale giudizio assegnato al gruppo.

Piech, l'ultimo car czar ... ed il suo sogno di rimettere insieme VW e porsche prima di morire...

Vediamo se i bond senior di prossima emissione di Porsche possono costituire una discreta opportunità...

 

[Imark]

Da Forbes, per chi si fosse perso le precedenti puntate della saga Porsche VW... Act II ? Act X ! (a dire poco... )

Porsche And Volkswagen: Act II

Parmy Olson, 04.23.09, 04:30 PM EDT
It no longer make sense for the indebted carmaker to buy out VW. So VW might buy Porsche instead.

One of the latest rumors surrounding the soap opera that is Volkswagen and Porsche is that after about three-and-a-half years of Porsche trying to buy out Volkswagen, Volkswagen now wants to buy Porsche.

That might sound straight out of left field, but it's also plausible. Porsche is the majority shareholder of Volkswagen, owning about 51.0% of its shares and holding options to increase that to as much as 75.0% (and beyond, if a certain court case rules in its favor). But this wouldn't be like a subsidiary buying out its parent -- it would be like a subsidiary buying out a fellow subsidiary.

This is because there are two parts to Porsche ( PSEPF - news - people )--Porsche Holding, and Porsche AG. The latter is the car-making part that, together with 50.8% of Volkswagen ( VLKAF - news - people ), is owned by Porsche Holding. It is Porsche Holding that is bogged down by 9.0 billion euros ($11.8 billion) of debt, which it only recently managed to re-finance by the skin of its teeth. (See "Porsche Mired In Debt.") And while Porsche just made an astonishing 6.8 billion euros ($9.0 billion) in net profit from trading options of Volkswagen, it cannot easily convert that into cash

While a takeover would mean relinquishing some power held by its managers, Porsche Holding could say bye-bye to all that debt if it could convince the supervisory board of Volkswagen to buy Porsche the car-maker. It's not like Volkswagen doesn’t have the cash: The company had 8.0 billion euros ($10.5 billion) in net liquidity at the end of last year. Nine billion euros ($11.8 billion) is the figure being widely reported for the price tag on Porsche. With its sales falling and debt not budging, Porsche's original plan to buy Volkswagen doesn't look so smart anymore.

Volkswagen's chief financial officer was asked at the company's annual general meeting on Thursday if VW was considering taking a majority stake in Porsche. He answered that "no concrete decision" had been made, according to Dow Jones Newswires, and didn't elaborate. A spokesman for Volkswagen also refused to deny to Forbes that a takeover was under discussion.

If a takeover went through, the two companies would probably have to restructure their internal controls so that Porsche could maintain a "prominent and independent position," according Christoph Stuermer, an auto analyst at IHS Global Insight in Frankfurt.

There is a lot of politics involved. Volkswagen's 20-member supervisory board, of which 10 members represent shareholders and the other 10 the workers, would have the final say. But the three key figures are Volkswagen Chairman Ferdinand Piech, Porsche chief executive Wendelin Wiedeking and Christian Wulff, the minister-president of the German State of Lower Saxony (which owns 20.0% of Volkswagen).

Piech is widely thought to be the figure pulling the strings behind Porsche's planned takeover of Volkswagen; his cousin and Porsche Chairman Wolfgang Porsche is probably neutral. For years, Piech wanted to reunite the two car makers. Volkswagen evolved as a spin-off from Porsche in 1933 when Piech's grandfather and company founder Ferdinand Porsche was commissioned by the German government to create a "volkswagen"--literally "people's car" in German--that could carry five people. That went on to become its own corporate entity. (See "Piech's Master Plan For Porsche.")

Though both companies have continued to work together on manufacturing and corporate strategy, in recent years, there has been bad blood between the two sides, from the engineers, right up to the CEOs, Wiedeking of Porsche and Martin Winterkorn of Volkswagen. "They've been treating each other badly," said Stuermer. "It would be quite hard for Wiedeking in his job to have to report to Winterkorn as the head of his company."

If Volkswagen is to buy Porsche, Wiedeking needs to be convinced. He wields big political clout in the company after becoming a member of the firm's all-important supervisory board in 2006, plus he is credited with turning around Porsche's business after taking the reins in 1993 as chief executive. A recent flurry of press reports have suggested that Wiedeking is now under threat of being pushed out by Piech.

If Piech can't convince Wiedeking to buy Porsche AG, he might as well just oust him, and so Piech's likely goal is to weaken his power base. "If history has anything to say about this, Piech will come out on top. He's always come out on top," said Stuermer. Just don't expect to get many hints on his strategy. "He never talks about the strategy. You never know until he executes."

 

[Maino]

e di peugeot ? certo, gli scenari non sono molto brillanti , però forse il prezzo del 2033 li sconta tutti, no ?
ho visto che poco alla volta sta risalendo dai suoi minimi , adesso sta superando quota 60 ...

è azzardato dire che il prezzo della peugeot sconta tutti gli scenari negativi, mentre quello di altre marche ancora no ?