Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond case automobilistiche e accessorio auto (4 lettori)
Imark
Forumer storico
I conti trimestrali di Honda per il Q4/2008-9 (che per i giapponesi è gennaio - marzo 2009) termina con un rosso equivalente ad 1,94 mld $... Honda confida di restare in nero nell'esercizio fiscale in corso (dall'aprile 2009 all'aprile 2010, sempre secondo il calendario fiscale nipponico).
Se fosse vero, sarà una delle poche aziende del comparto a non terminare l'anno con i conti in rosso.
Chiude intanto l'anno fiscale 2008-9 con un utile circa doppio rispetto a quello indicato in un recente forecast dalla stessa società.
Il calo delle vendite accusato è quello riportato in precedenti commenti.
Honda in red for 4Q, books profit for fiscal year
Honda in red for 4Q, but annual profit beats target; sees small profit for year ahead
Japan's second-largest carmaker said it had a net loss of 186.16 billion yen ($1.94 billion) in the January-March quarter, down from a 25.43 billion yen profit a year earlier.
For the fiscal year through March, though, Honda earned a net profit of 137 billion yen. While that was less than a quarter of its profit a year earlier, it was above the company's forecast of 80 billion yen set in January. A survey of 24 analysts by Thomson Reuters had forecast an average profit of 93.67 billion yen for the year.
For the current fiscal year, Honda projected it would eke out a 10 billion yen profit, barely managing to stay in the black.
"This was a good result for Honda. And 10 billion is a very low number, but this is a strong message by management that they will avoid a loss this year," said Koji Endo, an analyst at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.
Honda Executive Vice President Koichi Kondo told reporters the target was "conservative" and expressed confidence his company would meet it, though much depends on foreign exchange considerations and the recovery of emerging economies such as China.
Like rivals at home and abroad, Honda is feeling squeezed by the global slowdown -- but so far has managed to outperform its peers, maintaining profits even as revenues fall. Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. are both forecasting net losses for the just-ended fiscal year.
Honda's quarterly sales tumbled 42 percent to 1.78 trillion yen from 3.06 trillion a year earlier. For the year, sales slid 17 percent to 10.01 trillion yen.
Honda has enacted major cost reductions to avoid such losses, including cutting all of its temporary workers and scaling back production worldwide. It has also pulled its Formula One sponsorship.
Honda's car lineup has also been an advantage. Unlike Toyota, it doesn't produce expensive gas-guzzling trucks, and motorcycles are a major product. This has been a good fit as consumers have grown more cost conscious and concerned about fuel economy.
Still, its fortunes have fallen sharply. For the year that ended in March 2008, Honda booked 600 billion yen in profit.
Honda said it sold less vehicles in all regions during the fiscal fourth quarter, but also spent far less on its operations, cutting items such as research and development.
While sales numbers have been especially dire in the massive North American market, Kondo said he thought the worst was over in the region.
"Overall we think demand has bottomed out, but we're not sure how it is going to rebound from here," he said.
Also on Tuesday, Isuzu Motors Ltd. said it would likely book a bigger net loss for the fiscal year than it had previously forecast. The company said it now expects a loss of 26.9 billion yen, versus its previous target of 15 billion yen loss.
Separately, Honda and Pioneer Corp. said Tuesday they had reached an agreement to shore up Pioneer's flagging finances. The electronics maker said it will issue new stock to Honda for 2.5 billion yen later this year, which will make Honda its second-largest shareholder behind Sharp Corp.
Pioneer said car electronics, including audio and navigation products, are a core business, and Honda is a major customer.
Honda's results were released after the stock market closed. In Tuesday trade, its shares fell 2.4 percent to 2,600 yen.
Se fosse vero, sarà una delle poche aziende del comparto a non terminare l'anno con i conti in rosso.
Chiude intanto l'anno fiscale 2008-9 con un utile circa doppio rispetto a quello indicato in un recente forecast dalla stessa società.
Il calo delle vendite accusato è quello riportato in precedenti commenti.
Honda in red for 4Q, books profit for fiscal year
Honda in red for 4Q, but annual profit beats target; sees small profit for year ahead
- Jay Alabaster, Associated Press
- On Tuesday April 28, 2009, 6:33 am EDT
Japan's second-largest carmaker said it had a net loss of 186.16 billion yen ($1.94 billion) in the January-March quarter, down from a 25.43 billion yen profit a year earlier.
For the fiscal year through March, though, Honda earned a net profit of 137 billion yen. While that was less than a quarter of its profit a year earlier, it was above the company's forecast of 80 billion yen set in January. A survey of 24 analysts by Thomson Reuters had forecast an average profit of 93.67 billion yen for the year.
For the current fiscal year, Honda projected it would eke out a 10 billion yen profit, barely managing to stay in the black.
"This was a good result for Honda. And 10 billion is a very low number, but this is a strong message by management that they will avoid a loss this year," said Koji Endo, an analyst at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.
Honda Executive Vice President Koichi Kondo told reporters the target was "conservative" and expressed confidence his company would meet it, though much depends on foreign exchange considerations and the recovery of emerging economies such as China.
Like rivals at home and abroad, Honda is feeling squeezed by the global slowdown -- but so far has managed to outperform its peers, maintaining profits even as revenues fall. Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. are both forecasting net losses for the just-ended fiscal year.
Honda's quarterly sales tumbled 42 percent to 1.78 trillion yen from 3.06 trillion a year earlier. For the year, sales slid 17 percent to 10.01 trillion yen.
Honda has enacted major cost reductions to avoid such losses, including cutting all of its temporary workers and scaling back production worldwide. It has also pulled its Formula One sponsorship.
Honda's car lineup has also been an advantage. Unlike Toyota, it doesn't produce expensive gas-guzzling trucks, and motorcycles are a major product. This has been a good fit as consumers have grown more cost conscious and concerned about fuel economy.
Still, its fortunes have fallen sharply. For the year that ended in March 2008, Honda booked 600 billion yen in profit.
Honda said it sold less vehicles in all regions during the fiscal fourth quarter, but also spent far less on its operations, cutting items such as research and development.
While sales numbers have been especially dire in the massive North American market, Kondo said he thought the worst was over in the region.
"Overall we think demand has bottomed out, but we're not sure how it is going to rebound from here," he said.
Also on Tuesday, Isuzu Motors Ltd. said it would likely book a bigger net loss for the fiscal year than it had previously forecast. The company said it now expects a loss of 26.9 billion yen, versus its previous target of 15 billion yen loss.
Separately, Honda and Pioneer Corp. said Tuesday they had reached an agreement to shore up Pioneer's flagging finances. The electronics maker said it will issue new stock to Honda for 2.5 billion yen later this year, which will make Honda its second-largest shareholder behind Sharp Corp.
Pioneer said car electronics, including audio and navigation products, are a core business, and Honda is a major customer.
Honda's results were released after the stock market closed. In Tuesday trade, its shares fell 2.4 percent to 2,600 yen.
Imark
Forumer storico
Daimler ha diffuso i dati trimestrali riportando un EBIT negativo per 1,43 mld euro. L'industrial cash flow è risultato pesantemente negativo nel trimestre, per 1,1 mld euro.
Audi, Lexus ed Infinity apparentemente vanno guadagnando quote di mercato su MB e BMW (sebbene, per i marchi premium, molto dipenda dalla tempistica di commercializzazione dei nuovi modelli, pre cui la cosa va valutata nel tempo). MB conta di recuperare profittevolezza grazie al lancio della nuova Classe E (da sempre, storicamente, il modello sul quale la casa di Stoccarda realizza il margine più consistente).
Resta comunque che mentre la perdita operativa di Daimler è quasi tutta da ricondurre a MB, contestualmente Audi ha portato profitti in casa VW, sebbene con un EBIT margin ridotto al 5,4%.
In positivo, la recente vendita a Cerberus del residuo 30% di Chrysler, per il quale Daimler imputerà a bilancio una perdita una tantum di 700 mln euro per il prossimo quarter, consentendo tuttavia, seppure a caro prezzo, una definitiva uscita dall'avventura americana del "car czar" Juerghen Schrempp.
Daimler shares tumble as loss disappoints
Tue Apr 28, 2009 7:25am EDT
By Christiaan Hetzner
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Daimler (DAIGn.DE) said it expects to book a significant second-quarter loss after posting first-quarter results that fell far short of expectations, as it burned through cash, sending its shares tumbling.
Hours after dumping the remainder of its disastrous investment in U.S. automaker Chrysler, the group said on Tuesday it swung to a loss before interest and tax of 1.43 billion euros ($1.86 billion), following its February profit warning.
Industrial free cash flow fell by 2.2 billion to a 1.1 billion outflow in the quarter. It nearly offset this with fresh equity from Abu Dhabi-based shareholder Aabar AABAR.AD, which helped lift net industrial liquidity to 3.74 billion.
Metzler Bank analyst Juergen Pieper said the market will have to chop its earnings estimates for Daimler to account for a full-year loss, reaffirming his "sell" rating for the stock and for BMW (BMWG.DE), Daimler's premium autos rival.
"There was a bit of blind faith in the market recently that investors can affordably buy into two quality blue-chip companies going through a tough time and in a couple of months at the latest things would improve," he said.
"The problems are deeper than that and I miss a real answer from both."
Revenue fell by more than a fifth to 18.7 billion euros.
Emerging rivals like Toyota's (7203.T) Lexus, Nissan's (7267.T) Infiniti or Volkswagen's (VOWG.DE) Audi are winning market from the established premium brands, and Pieper said Mercedes and BMW have step up their cooperation to gain scale.
"Audi has done a far better job navigating this crisis. The golden times where Mercedes and BMW carved up the luxury car market between the two of them are over. I don't see any chance for either to return to 10 percent margins over the next two years at least -- if at all," Pieper said.
While Mercedes accounted for the bulk of Daimler's operating loss, VW's Audi has managed to post a healthy if slimmer operating margin of 5.4 percent.
Daimler's results undershot the near 950 million loss forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts. All major divisions posted losses amid a sharp slump in demand and government incentives that mainly helped rivals that build small cars.
Daimler is counting on targeted cost savings of 4 billion euros and the launch of the new Mercedes-Benz E-Class model to help operating profitability improve gradually this year.
"Earnings in the second quarter are expected to be significantly negative once again, however," it said.
Shares in Daimler fell 5.4 percent by 1030 GMT (6:30 a.m. EDT), more than double the decline by the German blue-chip DAX index.
Late on Monday, Daimler struck a deal to unload its 20 percent stake in Chrysler after agreeing to waive fully impaired loans of $1.9 billion and bestow a dowry of $600 million euros to fund pension obligations over the next three years in exchange for owner Cerberus CBS.UL waiving any legal claims. A residual risk of $200 million still remains, however.
The deal will lead to a one-off charge of $700 million in the second quarter, Daimler said.
Audi, Lexus ed Infinity apparentemente vanno guadagnando quote di mercato su MB e BMW (sebbene, per i marchi premium, molto dipenda dalla tempistica di commercializzazione dei nuovi modelli, pre cui la cosa va valutata nel tempo). MB conta di recuperare profittevolezza grazie al lancio della nuova Classe E (da sempre, storicamente, il modello sul quale la casa di Stoccarda realizza il margine più consistente).
Resta comunque che mentre la perdita operativa di Daimler è quasi tutta da ricondurre a MB, contestualmente Audi ha portato profitti in casa VW, sebbene con un EBIT margin ridotto al 5,4%.
In positivo, la recente vendita a Cerberus del residuo 30% di Chrysler, per il quale Daimler imputerà a bilancio una perdita una tantum di 700 mln euro per il prossimo quarter, consentendo tuttavia, seppure a caro prezzo, una definitiva uscita dall'avventura americana del "car czar" Juerghen Schrempp.
Daimler shares tumble as loss disappoints
Tue Apr 28, 2009 7:25am EDT
By Christiaan Hetzner
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Daimler (DAIGn.DE) said it expects to book a significant second-quarter loss after posting first-quarter results that fell far short of expectations, as it burned through cash, sending its shares tumbling.
Hours after dumping the remainder of its disastrous investment in U.S. automaker Chrysler, the group said on Tuesday it swung to a loss before interest and tax of 1.43 billion euros ($1.86 billion), following its February profit warning.
Industrial free cash flow fell by 2.2 billion to a 1.1 billion outflow in the quarter. It nearly offset this with fresh equity from Abu Dhabi-based shareholder Aabar AABAR.AD, which helped lift net industrial liquidity to 3.74 billion.
Metzler Bank analyst Juergen Pieper said the market will have to chop its earnings estimates for Daimler to account for a full-year loss, reaffirming his "sell" rating for the stock and for BMW (BMWG.DE), Daimler's premium autos rival.
"There was a bit of blind faith in the market recently that investors can affordably buy into two quality blue-chip companies going through a tough time and in a couple of months at the latest things would improve," he said.
"The problems are deeper than that and I miss a real answer from both."
Revenue fell by more than a fifth to 18.7 billion euros.
Emerging rivals like Toyota's (7203.T) Lexus, Nissan's (7267.T) Infiniti or Volkswagen's (VOWG.DE) Audi are winning market from the established premium brands, and Pieper said Mercedes and BMW have step up their cooperation to gain scale.
"Audi has done a far better job navigating this crisis. The golden times where Mercedes and BMW carved up the luxury car market between the two of them are over. I don't see any chance for either to return to 10 percent margins over the next two years at least -- if at all," Pieper said.
While Mercedes accounted for the bulk of Daimler's operating loss, VW's Audi has managed to post a healthy if slimmer operating margin of 5.4 percent.
Daimler's results undershot the near 950 million loss forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts. All major divisions posted losses amid a sharp slump in demand and government incentives that mainly helped rivals that build small cars.
Daimler is counting on targeted cost savings of 4 billion euros and the launch of the new Mercedes-Benz E-Class model to help operating profitability improve gradually this year.
"Earnings in the second quarter are expected to be significantly negative once again, however," it said.
Shares in Daimler fell 5.4 percent by 1030 GMT (6:30 a.m. EDT), more than double the decline by the German blue-chip DAX index.
Late on Monday, Daimler struck a deal to unload its 20 percent stake in Chrysler after agreeing to waive fully impaired loans of $1.9 billion and bestow a dowry of $600 million euros to fund pension obligations over the next three years in exchange for owner Cerberus CBS.UL waiving any legal claims. A residual risk of $200 million still remains, however.
The deal will lead to a one-off charge of $700 million in the second quarter, Daimler said.
yellow
Forumer attivo
28.04.09 15:03 -
Peugeot: modifica accordo finanziamento con banche (fonti)
LONDRA (MF-DJ)--Peugeot-Citroen ha apportato modifiche ai termini e condizioni generali del suo finanziamanto, mossa che potrebbe ritardare la chiusura dell'accordo con le banche e indurre alcuni istituti di credito a non aderire all'operazione.
E' quanto riportato da fonti vicine alla situazione,
secondo cui alcune banche,
che hanno gia' ricevuto l'approvazione interna a fornire il prestito,
sarebbero riluttanti a chiedere un altro avallo alla commissione interna.
Non sono stati resi noti i dettagli delle modifiche apportate dallla casa automobilistica.
La mossa giunge a seguito della nomina del nuovo management del gruppo, dopo il licenziamento del Ceo Christian Streif lo scorso marzo.
Imark
Forumer storico
Giacché mi sembra non fosse stato diffuso... Peugeot aspetta i 3 mld dello stato, i 400 mln della banca europea degli investimenti e non esclude quest'anno di dover lanciare nuovi bond, fra i quali un convertibile...
Precisa inoltre che il prestito governativo è privo di covenants e di clausole che impongano limiti alla ristrutturazione...
Per le banche credo si possa trattare di covenants che riguardano le linee di credito disponibili presso le banche: talvolta queste sono munite di clausole che ne vincolano l'effettiva disponibilità al fatto che non si eccedano determinati limiti (livelli di leverage ecc.) può essere che sia questo ciò che Peugeot sta cercando di rinegoziare...
PARIS (Dow Jones)--French carmaker PSA Peugeot-Citroen SA (UG.FR) expects its production to fall between 25% and 30% this year, with market visibility clouded for the rest of the year.
Particularly difficult to gauge is whether governments will extend their programs of incentives to car owners who scrap aging automobiles to buy new, Chief Financial Officer Isabel Marey-Semper told a conference call of analysts. For that reason, the company is cautious about it prospects for all 2009.
In reporting a 25% revenue and 39% production drop for the first quarter of this year, Peugeot-Citroen earlier Wednesday said it still expects a loss in 2009, along with negative cash flow. Marey-Semper said the company has some visibility into the second and third quarters of this year, but none for the fourth and beyond.
She also said margins in certain classes of cars the company makes and sells continue to be pressured and isn't as good as one might imagine.
However, government car scrapping schemes around the world have sparked a revival for the company's smaller models, she confirmed.
The official also said she can't exclude the company will issue a convertible bond and other bonds this year to add to the EUR3 billion loan it is getting from the French government and the EUR400 million it is receiving from the European Investment Bank.
She said the company expects to receive all the proceeds from those two loans by the end of April and that the French government loan carries no covenants, special restrictions or requirements for corporate restructuring
Precisa inoltre che il prestito governativo è privo di covenants e di clausole che impongano limiti alla ristrutturazione...
Per le banche credo si possa trattare di covenants che riguardano le linee di credito disponibili presso le banche: talvolta queste sono munite di clausole che ne vincolano l'effettiva disponibilità al fatto che non si eccedano determinati limiti (livelli di leverage ecc.) può essere che sia questo ciò che Peugeot sta cercando di rinegoziare...
- APRIL 22, 2009, 3:54 A.M. ET
PARIS (Dow Jones)--French carmaker PSA Peugeot-Citroen SA (UG.FR) expects its production to fall between 25% and 30% this year, with market visibility clouded for the rest of the year.
Particularly difficult to gauge is whether governments will extend their programs of incentives to car owners who scrap aging automobiles to buy new, Chief Financial Officer Isabel Marey-Semper told a conference call of analysts. For that reason, the company is cautious about it prospects for all 2009.
In reporting a 25% revenue and 39% production drop for the first quarter of this year, Peugeot-Citroen earlier Wednesday said it still expects a loss in 2009, along with negative cash flow. Marey-Semper said the company has some visibility into the second and third quarters of this year, but none for the fourth and beyond.
She also said margins in certain classes of cars the company makes and sells continue to be pressured and isn't as good as one might imagine.
However, government car scrapping schemes around the world have sparked a revival for the company's smaller models, she confirmed.
The official also said she can't exclude the company will issue a convertible bond and other bonds this year to add to the EUR3 billion loan it is getting from the French government and the EUR400 million it is receiving from the European Investment Bank.
She said the company expects to receive all the proceeds from those two loans by the end of April and that the French government loan carries no covenants, special restrictions or requirements for corporate restructuring
Imark
Forumer storico
Michelin dichiara che il valore delle vendite nel Q1/2009 si è ridotto del 14,2% ed è ottimista circa la possibilità di generare free cash flow nel 2009 (in virtù del piano di riduzione del capex), forse anche alla fine del H1/2009. In realtà il calo dei pezzi venduti è pari ad oltre il 24%, ma gli incrementi di prezzi varati nel 2008 hanno contenuto l'impatto di questa riduzione sul valore del fatturato.
Faccio disclosure: sono entrato nell'8,625% 2014.
UPDATE 2-Michelin Q1 sales fall 14.2 percent
Tue Apr 28, 2009 7:15pm BST
* Michelin Q1 sales fall to 3.5 bln euros
* Says on track to meet FY goal of positive free cash flow
* Shares closed down 2.75 pct before sales released (Adds detail from analyst call) By Helen Massy-Beresford
PARIS, April 28 (Reuters) - French tire manufacturer Michelin (MICP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) said first-quarter sales fell 14.2 percent to 3.5 billion euros on Tuesday and said its 2009 focus would be on cash as the industry battles the financial crisis.
Michelin slightly exceeded a Reuters Estimate of first-quarter sales of 3.445 billion euros, based on six analysts' forecasts.
Michelin said in a statement it was well on track toward generating positive free cash flow in 2009. Managing partner and finance chief Jean-Dominique Senard, during a conference call with analysts, did not rule out achieving positive free cash flow in the first half.
Michelin said unit sales fell 24.4 percent, as demand dropped in all its markets except China.
POSITIVE PRICE INCREASES
It said price increases carried out in 2008 had a positive impact, with an 11 percent price-mix impact. The group would probably see a neutral impact from raw material prices in the first half, Senard told analysts.
"The original market is down sharply ... This could change, by the way, by the end of the year if the big programs that are implemented throughout the world start to kick in," Senard said.
Tire and equipment makers have suffered along with automakers, which have been forced to slash production to cut down on costly inventories of unsold vehicles as the recession has dried up demand for new cars.
Government sales incentives have started to have an impact in the early part of the year, with sales in Germany and France rising in March, as some drivers have taken advantage of cash bonuses for trading in old cars for newer, greener models.
Michelin said it felt a positive currency impact in the first quarter from gains against the euro by the U.S. dollar, and to a lesser extent, the Chinese yuan.
Michelin shares closed down 2.75 percent at 35.66 euros on Tuesday, just before the sales figures were released. France's benchmark CAC-40 index .FCHI fell 1.66 percent.
Giant German auto parts maker Continental AG (CONG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) is due to publish its quarterly results on Wednesday. Michelin's biggest competitor is Bridgestone Corp (5108.T: Quote, Profile, Research) of Japan. (Additional reporting by Matthias Blamont, editing by Marcel Michelson and Gerald E. McCormick)
Faccio disclosure: sono entrato nell'8,625% 2014.
UPDATE 2-Michelin Q1 sales fall 14.2 percent
Tue Apr 28, 2009 7:15pm BST
* Michelin Q1 sales fall to 3.5 bln euros
* Says on track to meet FY goal of positive free cash flow
* Shares closed down 2.75 pct before sales released (Adds detail from analyst call) By Helen Massy-Beresford
PARIS, April 28 (Reuters) - French tire manufacturer Michelin (MICP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) said first-quarter sales fell 14.2 percent to 3.5 billion euros on Tuesday and said its 2009 focus would be on cash as the industry battles the financial crisis.
Michelin slightly exceeded a Reuters Estimate of first-quarter sales of 3.445 billion euros, based on six analysts' forecasts.
Michelin said in a statement it was well on track toward generating positive free cash flow in 2009. Managing partner and finance chief Jean-Dominique Senard, during a conference call with analysts, did not rule out achieving positive free cash flow in the first half.
Michelin said unit sales fell 24.4 percent, as demand dropped in all its markets except China.
POSITIVE PRICE INCREASES
It said price increases carried out in 2008 had a positive impact, with an 11 percent price-mix impact. The group would probably see a neutral impact from raw material prices in the first half, Senard told analysts.
"The original market is down sharply ... This could change, by the way, by the end of the year if the big programs that are implemented throughout the world start to kick in," Senard said.
Tire and equipment makers have suffered along with automakers, which have been forced to slash production to cut down on costly inventories of unsold vehicles as the recession has dried up demand for new cars.
Government sales incentives have started to have an impact in the early part of the year, with sales in Germany and France rising in March, as some drivers have taken advantage of cash bonuses for trading in old cars for newer, greener models.
Michelin said it felt a positive currency impact in the first quarter from gains against the euro by the U.S. dollar, and to a lesser extent, the Chinese yuan.
Michelin shares closed down 2.75 percent at 35.66 euros on Tuesday, just before the sales figures were released. France's benchmark CAC-40 index .FCHI fell 1.66 percent.
Giant German auto parts maker Continental AG (CONG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) is due to publish its quarterly results on Wednesday. Michelin's biggest competitor is Bridgestone Corp (5108.T: Quote, Profile, Research) of Japan. (Additional reporting by Matthias Blamont, editing by Marcel Michelson and Gerald E. McCormick)
Imark
Forumer storico
Arriva il dowgrade di S&P su Volvo, e si lascia la porta aperta per una possibile seconda riduzione del rating in tempi non troppo lunghi...
I risultati sono molto negativi, il cash burning a livello industriale elevato, l'outlook sul resto dell'anno analogamente negativo.
Se le cose non cambiano nel 2009 sul piano della capacità di generare cash e non vi sono aspettative di miglioramento nel 2010, è possibile che il rating venga ulteriormente ridotto.
Volvo (publ), AB Long-Term Rating Cut To ‘BBB+’ On Weakened Credit Protection And Tougher Market; Outlook Negative
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) April 29, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on
Sweden-based automotive group Volvo (publ), AB to 'BBB+' from 'A-', reflecting our view that lower cash generation in 2009 will likely lead to a considerably weaker financial risk profile in the medium term. The 'A-2' short-term rating was affirmed. The outlook is negative.
"The downgrade reflects a negative revision of our financial forecast for
Volvo, in light of the rapidly deteriorating conditions and prospects in the
global truck market, and very weak recent company performance," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Werner Staeblein.
"Even if the economic environment were to improve in late 2009 and 2010, we do not expect Volvo to improve its financial risk profile to an extent commensurate with the previous rating."
We also now see Volvo's business risk as somewhat higher, given the unexpectedly high current market contraction and Volvo's weak recent performance compared with peers such as Scania (publ.) AB (A-/Stable/A-2) and MAN AG (A-/Stable/A-2).
Volvo reported weak figures for the first quarter of 2009. Operating
profit contracted harshly, while expected improvements in cash generation, notably from working capital changes, did not materialize.
Consequently, free operating cash flow (FOCF) in industrial operations was very negative, and we now expect Volvo to show only very modest, if not negative, FOCF in 2009.
The outlook for Volvo's main industries, trucks and construction
equipment, continues to be bleak and worse than expected at the beginning of the year.
Volvo felt substantial margin pressure from low capacity utilization, lower deliveries, restructuring costs, higher raw materials burdens, and substantially rising provisions for credit losses.
According to our revised base-case projection, financial debt protection measures are likely to deteriorate significantly more than previously expected.
We anticipate that the group's credit measures will remain very weak for the 'BBB+' rating in 2009, while improved demand should allow a rebound to adequate levels in 2010.
"We could lower our rating should the company fail to achieve a
turnaround in cash generation throughout 2009, or if we concluded that the expected 2010 improvement will be weaker or less likely than we currently assume," said Mr. Staeblein.
Apart from company- and industry-specific factors, changes to Standard & Poor's macroeconomic forecast assumptions will also influence our view.
The current rating also assumes that Volvo will maintain an adequate liquidity position.
I risultati sono molto negativi, il cash burning a livello industriale elevato, l'outlook sul resto dell'anno analogamente negativo.
Se le cose non cambiano nel 2009 sul piano della capacità di generare cash e non vi sono aspettative di miglioramento nel 2010, è possibile che il rating venga ulteriormente ridotto.
Volvo (publ), AB Long-Term Rating Cut To ‘BBB+’ On Weakened Credit Protection And Tougher Market; Outlook Negative
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) April 29, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on
Sweden-based automotive group Volvo (publ), AB to 'BBB+' from 'A-', reflecting our view that lower cash generation in 2009 will likely lead to a considerably weaker financial risk profile in the medium term. The 'A-2' short-term rating was affirmed. The outlook is negative.
"The downgrade reflects a negative revision of our financial forecast for
Volvo, in light of the rapidly deteriorating conditions and prospects in the
global truck market, and very weak recent company performance," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Werner Staeblein.
"Even if the economic environment were to improve in late 2009 and 2010, we do not expect Volvo to improve its financial risk profile to an extent commensurate with the previous rating."
We also now see Volvo's business risk as somewhat higher, given the unexpectedly high current market contraction and Volvo's weak recent performance compared with peers such as Scania (publ.) AB (A-/Stable/A-2) and MAN AG (A-/Stable/A-2).
Volvo reported weak figures for the first quarter of 2009. Operating
profit contracted harshly, while expected improvements in cash generation, notably from working capital changes, did not materialize.
Consequently, free operating cash flow (FOCF) in industrial operations was very negative, and we now expect Volvo to show only very modest, if not negative, FOCF in 2009.
The outlook for Volvo's main industries, trucks and construction
equipment, continues to be bleak and worse than expected at the beginning of the year.
Volvo felt substantial margin pressure from low capacity utilization, lower deliveries, restructuring costs, higher raw materials burdens, and substantially rising provisions for credit losses.
According to our revised base-case projection, financial debt protection measures are likely to deteriorate significantly more than previously expected.
We anticipate that the group's credit measures will remain very weak for the 'BBB+' rating in 2009, while improved demand should allow a rebound to adequate levels in 2010.
"We could lower our rating should the company fail to achieve a
turnaround in cash generation throughout 2009, or if we concluded that the expected 2010 improvement will be weaker or less likely than we currently assume," said Mr. Staeblein.
Apart from company- and industry-specific factors, changes to Standard & Poor's macroeconomic forecast assumptions will also influence our view.
The current rating also assumes that Volvo will maintain an adequate liquidity position.
Imark
Forumer storico
Ciao Cangiante, ho preserito puntare direttamente su titoli senior, anche in considerazione del fatto che Michelin opera in un comparto che continuerà ad accusare difficoltà almeno nel biennio 2009-2010 e che il profilo dell'emittetne sul piano della liquidità ci sta possa determinare qualche problema in prospettiva sull'ibrido (sebbene si tratti di una eventualità piuttosto remota).