Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond case automobilistiche e accessorio auto (3 lettori)

[Imark]

Daimler, pochi giorni fa aveva rilasciato i propri dati di andamento trimestrale, pronosticando un 2010 ancora molto difficile per auto di lusso e veicoli commerciali ed industriali. Era tornata ad un utile netto dopo 2 trimestri di perdite, ma giocandosi il jolly della nuova Classe E, storicamente la vettura più profittevole del marchio.

Daimler gives subdued 2010 outlook, shares slip

Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:40am EDT


By Michael Shields
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE) painted a bleak picture for auto and commercial vehicle markets in 2010 as a hangover from global recession continues to weigh on the world's biggest truckmaker and second-biggest premium carmaker.

The end of government incentives for motorists to splash out on new cars and a fragile investment environment meant hopes for a broad and quick automotive sector rebound were misplaced, the German maker of Mercedes-Benz cars and Freightliner trucks said.

Global demand for cars should fall this year by only around 10 percent thanks to state incentives, it said on Tuesday in a third-quarter report that featured a return to a net profit after two consecutive quarters of billion-euro-plus losses.

"Negative effects on demand can be expected when the state support programs are phased out in the following years, particularly in the volume segments of more mature markets," the company said in a statement.
Daimler shares, which have outperformed the DJ Stoxx European car sector index .SXAP by nearly 11 percent this year, fell 0.98 percent to 35.48 euros by 1230 GMT.

"The problem is the outlook for 2010: (Chief Executive Dieter) Zetsche still sees a difficult market environment and little prospect for a recovery in the sector, which has been swirling around for the past few weeks. All in all, a sobering outlook," said BHF-Bank analyst Alexsej Wunrau.

POSITIVE Q4 EBIT FROM OPERATIONS

Incentives to junk old cars and buy new, fuel-efficient models have done little for Daimler and other makers of high-powered German premium cars such as BMW (BMWG.DE), Porsche (PSHG_p.DE) and Volkswagen's (VOWG.DE) Audi unit.

Unit sales of its Mercedes-Benz Cars premium division fell 15.7 percent in the first three quarters of the year to 825,600 vehicles, with China the only bright spot.

BMW vehicle sales also fell 15.7 percent but edged up in September for the first gain this year. Truckmakers on both sides of the Atlantic also hit the skids when the credit crunch and sharp economic slump blasted demand for goods transport. They have responded by slashing costs and chopping output until demand revives.

"From a global perspective, the gradual recovery of truck markets that now seems to be starting will probably be only moderate due to the difficult conditions for investment," Daimler said.

Volvo (VOLVb.ST), the world's second-biggest truckmaker, said last week the market was recovering but only slowly from the worst downturn it had ever seen.

Swedish peer Scania (SCVb.ST) has said it did not expect a quick truck market rebound in Europe next year.

Daimler forecast its ongoing businesses would generate positive earnings before interest and tax in the fourth quarter but warned the economic downturn and its impact on dealerships and suppliers could weigh on the bottom line.

The German group forecast negative cash flow in the fourth quarter due to higher payments to suppliers and a seasonal inventory increase at year's end.

"We are now very well positioned and can look with confidence to the coming year, which will remain challenging due to the still-difficult situation of automobile markets worldwide," Zetsche said in a statement.

Daimler posted a third-quarter net profit of 56 million euros ($83.4 million).

Last week Daimler released key numbers showing third-quarter earnings before interest and tax withered to 470 million euros on sales of 19.3 billion and forecast its industrial operations would generate free cash flow in 2009.

Based on 2010 estimates compiled by StarMine, which weights analysts' estimates by their forecasting success, Daimler trades at 24 times earnings per share, in line with BMW (BMWG.DE) on 23 times and a premium to Volkswagen (VOWG.DE) on nearly 17 times.

BMW, the world's biggest premium carmaker, reports third-quarter results on November 3.

Japan's Honda Motor Co (7267.T), the world's seventh-biggest carmaker, nearly tripled its annual profit forecast.

(Additional reporting by Christoph Steitz and Peggy Kropmanns, editing by Marcel Michelson)

 

[azetaelle]

GM ha deciso di tenere Opel, salta cessione a Magna

??? se fosse il 1 aprile, penserei ad un pesce...

DETROIT/FRANCOFORTE, 4 novembre (Reuters) - General Motors ieri sera ha annunciato di aver deciso di mantenere Opel, vanificando mesi di negoziazioni sui termini in base ai quali la controllata tedesca avrebbe dovuto essere ceduta alla canadese Magna.
GM ha motivato la decisione con il fatto che il contesto generale dell'industria automobilistica ha mostrato segni di miglioramento.
La mossa pone il rischio di un conflitto con i sindacati europei di Opel e lascia aperti interrogativi su come il colosso Usa finanzierà i suoi piani di procedere da solo ristrutturando Opel.
Negativa la reazione del governo tedesco, che si era speso per l'operazione Magna, e dei sindacati. Il ministro dell'Economia e il premier dello stato tedesco Nord Reno-Westphalia hanno definito la decisione della casa Usa "inaccettabile".
Juergen Reinholz, ministro dell'Economia della Turingia, uno degli stati tedeschi che ospitano stabilimenti Opel, ha detto che GM ha dato indicazioni che la restituzione del finanziamento ponte tedesco per Opel da 1,5 miliardi di euro avverrà entro fine novembre. GM Europe ha poi confermato che il prestito ponte verrà restituito.
Il leader sindacale di Opel, Klaus Franz, ha spiegato che il passo indietro di GM fa decadere le concessioni sui costi per milioni di euro, che erano stati concordati sulle attese di acquisto di Opel da parte di Magna.
Secondo un funzionario tedesco, la decisione di GM è stata una sorpresa anche per il cancelliere Angela Merkel, a Washington per partecipare a una sessione congiunta del Congresso.
GM Europe ha escluso che si possa arrivare a uno stato di insolvenza per Opel e ha annunciato di prevedere un taglio dei costi fissi del 30%. Non ha invece commentato eventuali chiusure di impianti e riduzioni della forza lavoro.

 

[doppiorhum]

??? se fosse il 1 aprile, penserei ad un pesce...

DETROIT/FRANCOFORTE, 4 novembre (Reuters) - General Motors ieri sera ha annunciato di aver deciso di mantenere Opel, vanificando mesi di negoziazioni sui termini in base ai quali la controllata tedesca avrebbe dovuto essere ceduta alla canadese Magna.
GM ha motivato la decisione con il fatto che il contesto generale dell'industria automobilistica ha mostrato segni di miglioramento.
La mossa pone il rischio di un conflitto con i sindacati europei di Opel e lascia aperti interrogativi su come il colosso Usa finanzierà i suoi piani di procedere da solo ristrutturando Opel.
Negativa la reazione del governo tedesco, che si era speso per l'operazione Magna, e dei sindacati. Il ministro dell'Economia e il premier dello stato tedesco Nord Reno-Westphalia hanno definito la decisione della casa Usa "inaccettabile".
Juergen Reinholz, ministro dell'Economia della Turingia, uno degli stati tedeschi che ospitano stabilimenti Opel, ha detto che GM ha dato indicazioni che la restituzione del finanziamento ponte tedesco per Opel da 1,5 miliardi di euro avverrà entro fine novembre. GM Europe ha poi confermato che il prestito ponte verrà restituito.
Il leader sindacale di Opel, Klaus Franz, ha spiegato che il passo indietro di GM fa decadere le concessioni sui costi per milioni di euro, che erano stati concordati sulle attese di acquisto di Opel da parte di Magna.
Secondo un funzionario tedesco, la decisione di GM è stata una sorpresa anche per il cancelliere Angela Merkel, a Washington per partecipare a una sessione congiunta del Congresso.
GM Europe ha escluso che si possa arrivare a uno stato di insolvenza per Opel e ha annunciato di prevedere un taglio dei costi fissi del 30%. Non ha invece commentato eventuali chiusure di impianti e riduzioni della forza lavoro.

buongiorno a tutti...
scusate , magari non c'entra nulla con questa discussione, ma qualcuno è in grado di dirmi cosa deve fare un disgraziato come me che ha 15.000 nominali di obbligazioni GM 2033???? chi effettua l'iscrizione al passivo per la ristrutturazione del debito??

grazie in anticipo

 

[Imark]

buongiorno a tutti...
scusate , magari non c'entra nulla con questa discussione, ma qualcuno è in grado di dirmi cosa deve fare un disgraziato come me che ha 15.000 nominali di obbligazioni GM 2033???? chi effettua l'iscrizione al passivo per la ristrutturazione del debito??

grazie in anticipo

Guarda, io personalmente non seguo più GM da molto tempo, ed anzi una delle ragioni per cui sono approdato su questo forum è l'indegna cagnara fatta su altro forum su GM ed i suoi bond da gente che doveva vivere di rendita comprando questi bond sotto la pari...

Nel 3D dedicato a GM, sono rimasto alla posizione espressa da Lupomar nei post 1450 e seguenti ... di più non so...

http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/gm-gmac-ford-chrysler-il-3d-dellautomotive-usa-vt37379-145.html

 

[doppiorhum]

Guarda, io personalmente non seguo più GM da molto tempo, ed anzi una delle ragioni per cui sono approdato su questo forum è l'indegna cagnara fatta su altro forum su GM ed i suoi bond da gente che doveva vivere di rendita comprando questi bond sotto la pari...

Nel 3D dedicato a GM, sono rimasto alla posizione espressa da Lupomar nei post 1450 e seguenti ... di più non so...

http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/gm-gmac-ford-chrysler-il-3d-dellautomotive-usa-vt37379-145.html

vado a vedere.. grazie

 

[lorenzo63]

Loud Sigh Of Relief In Poland As GM Backs Out Of Opel Deal

Occasione persa per Opel (con Fiat....) causa intransigneza e miopia sia del Governo che IG Metall ... chu se ne avvantaggia sono i Polacchi..

Polish Economy Minister Waldemar Pawlak Wednesday said the decision by General Motors Co. to abandon the sale of its Adam Opel GmbH unit in Europe was good for the Opel plant based in Gliwice, southern Poland.

“General Motors will continue to directly manage the factories and it seems that in this context the chances and prospects of General Motors in Gliwice are significantly better,” Pawlak, who is also Poland’s deputy prime minister, said Wednesday.

“Undoubtedly the Americans have a very pragmatic attitude and they appreciate how efficiently the company works,” he added.

And this time even trade unions agree with the government.

“Perhaps there isn’t any ‘hurrah’ optimism and jumping to the ceiling because the future is still uncertain but fears have subsided somewhat,” a Solidarity leader said.

What fears, you may ask? Quite often, Polish views are easier to understand when you think of Russia.

On relatively shaky terms with the Kremlin, Poland has never been enthusiastic about Opel’s sale to the Canadian parts maker Magna and Russian state-controlled Sberbank, seeing the risk that the Russian shareholder would choose to pack Opel’s bags and relocate the Polish plant to the east.

At some point when the transaction seemed like a done deal, the Polish government issued a statement that it hoped only “economic considerations” would be at play here–remarks clearly aimed at Russia, where they were supposed to be understood as “we hope Russia won’t kill the plant for political reasons.”

But until Tuesday night the Polish media were quite convinced that Opel’s Polish plant was doomed, even if it continued making those new Opel Astras for several more years. GM’s decision against the sale to Magna and Sberbank revives hopes Opel will stay in Poland for a little longer

 

[Imark]

Occasione persa per Opel (con Fiat....) causa intransigneza e miopia sia del Governo che IG Metall ... chu se ne avvantaggia sono i Polacchi..

Polish Economy Minister Waldemar Pawlak Wednesday said the decision by General Motors Co. to abandon the sale of its Adam Opel GmbH unit in Europe was good for the Opel plant based in Gliwice, southern Poland.

“General Motors will continue to directly manage the factories and it seems that in this context the chances and prospects of General Motors in Gliwice are significantly better,” Pawlak, who is also Poland’s deputy prime minister, said Wednesday.

“Undoubtedly the Americans have a very pragmatic attitude and they appreciate how efficiently the company works,” he added.

And this time even trade unions agree with the government.

“Perhaps there isn’t any ‘hurrah’ optimism and jumping to the ceiling because the future is still uncertain but fears have subsided somewhat,” a Solidarity leader said.

What fears, you may ask? Quite often, Polish views are easier to understand when you think of Russia.

On relatively shaky terms with the Kremlin, Poland has never been enthusiastic about Opel’s sale to the Canadian parts maker Magna and Russian state-controlled Sberbank, seeing the risk that the Russian shareholder would choose to pack Opel’s bags and relocate the Polish plant to the east.

At some point when the transaction seemed like a done deal, the Polish government issued a statement that it hoped only “economic considerations” would be at play here–remarks clearly aimed at Russia, where they were supposed to be understood as “we hope Russia won’t kill the plant for political reasons.”

But until Tuesday night the Polish media were quite convinced that Opel’s Polish plant was doomed, even if it continued making those new Opel Astras for several more years. GM’s decision against the sale to Magna and Sberbank revives hopes Opel will stay in Poland for a little longer

I polacchi stanno giocando insieme con i cechi una bella partita da sentinelle americane nel continente.... dei tedeschi si fidano niente, e dei russi meno che dei tedeschi...

E' anche giusto che ricevano qualche contropartita...

 

[Imark]

Con la trimestrale, Peugeot presenta un piano per recuperare redditività rispetto ai competitor, ponendosi come obiettivo il conseguimento di 3,3 mld euro in termini di EBIT entro il 2012.

Il 55% di tale target sarà conseguito mediante ridimensionamento della produzione e chiusura di impianti, riduzione del personale, taglio di costi, il 30% mediante il lancio di nuovi modelli e l'andamento delle vendite nei propri mercati di riferimento "maturi", il restante attraverso l'espansione delle vendite in mercati ad elevata crescita.

La società inoltre ha migliorato il proprio forecast per l'EBIT 2009, prevedendo il ritorno ad un risultato positivo nella seconda metà del 2009, dopo che la prima si era chiusa con una EBIT negativo per 826 mln di euro ed una stima di risultato 2009 negativo per un valore compreso fra 1 e 2 mld euro.

Anche il free cash flow per il 2009 dovrebbe essere positivo e la produzione crescere del 17% nell'ultimo trimestre 2009 rispetto al Q3 e del 30% y-o-y.

Peugeot Citroen raises outlook, reveals new models - BusinessWeek

• NOVEMBER 12, 2009, 8:14 A.M. ET

Peugeot-Citroen Unveils EUR3.3B Recovery Plan Through 2012

By David Pearson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

VELIZY-VILLACOUBLAY, France (Dow Jones)--French automaker PSA Peugeot-Citroen (UG.FR) Thursday unveiled a three-year, EUR3.3 billion plan to improve its profitability that relies heavily on cost savings and increasing volume sales into high-growth markets.

Chief Executive Philippe Varin, in a presentation to analysts and journalists, said the plan aims to close the profitability gap between Peugeot-Citroen and the five best players in the industry.

The company estimates that its average operating margin lags those of the of the five top companies by six percentage points and it aims to achieve a gain of EUR3.3 billion in operating profit between 2010 and 2012.

The improvement will be linear, Varin said. He said that 55% of the improvement will come from reducing production, development and overhead costs. A further 30% will come from sales and marketing efforts, and the remainder from sales into high-growth markets.

 

[lupomar]

E intanto il 2033 6% Isin FR0010014845, segna il nuovo massimo a 82,99!

 

[Imark]

Il rating di BMW ridotto da S&P... l'analista cammina un po' sulle uova, o almeno dà questa impressione: evidentemente a quelli di BMW la riduzione non deve essere piaciuta...

Al fondo di tutto, il rischio che il mercato dei marchi premium continui a sottoperformare rispetto agli anni pre-Lehman nel 2010 (e forse anche oltre).

BMW Ratings Lowered To 'A-/A-2' On Weak Sales Of Luxury Autos; Outlook Negative

Publication date: 13-Nov-2009 11:40:17 EST

• German automaker BMW's results have been severely hit by the weakness of luxury auto demand.
• We are lowering our ratings on BMW to 'A-/A-2' from 'A/A-1'.
• We are assigning a negative outlook reflecting the risk that BMW's operating performance could fail to recover sufficiently for the 'A-'
  rating if sales of luxury autos remain weak.

MILAN (Standard & Poor's) Nov. 13, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has lowered its long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on German automaker BMW AG to 'A-/A-2' from 'A/A-1'. The outlook is negative.

"The downgrade reflects our expectations that BMW's profitability will remain weak in 2010, for the third year in a row," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Castellano.

Near-term prospects for a recovery to historical levels appear limited. We also believe that BMW's apparent high leasing penetration may expose it to greater earnings volatility relative to less-exposed competitors, because of residual value fluctuations. Against this background, we have also revised our view on the group's business risk profile; we still see it in the "strong" category, but we perceive it as weaker than before (for details on our business risk profile methodology, see "Criteria Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded," published May 27, 2009).

In our assessment of the group's business risk, we recognize the high value of the BMW brand and its strong positioning in the luxury segment.

We believe, however, that the luxury segment has proved to be less resilient than expected in the current very difficult economic environment. For the first nine months of 2009, BMW reported €169 million of group EBIT. However, the automobile division reported a negative EBIT of €358 million.

We currently assume that BMW sales will improve in 2010. The market outlook for 2010 remains unclear, but we expect overall car sales in Europe to decline and sales in North America to be modestly higher. We think that the premium segments should fair somewhat better than the mass market segment, which is expected to suffer negative effects from the ending of incentive schemes.

In the case of BMW, we assume the product renewals, for example the launch of the new BMW 5 Series in 2010, should add momentum to BMW demand. Furthermore, we believe that BMW is well placed to benefit from the economic recovery if it starts. Profitability should also benefit from some cost reduction actions implemented this year. Still, we expect a long wait before BMW achieves a profitability margin consistent with the premium positioning of the group.

For 2009, we expect financial ratios below the 2008 level. For example, the ratio of adjusted industrial funds from operations (FFO) to adjusted debt will probably fall below the target level of 40% and we expect it to be around 30%.

However, we anticipate that ratios will improve in 2010, and will be comfortably above 40% in 2011 or earlier. For the 'A-' rating, we assume that the group will report a ratio of adjusted FFO to adjusted debt above 40% over the cycle.

"The negative outlook reflects our opinion that there are risk factors that could negatively affect BMW's performance, resulting in a sustained underperformance compared with our assumptions, rather than the recovery factored into the current rating," said Ms. Castellano.

This could happen if sales do not recover in 2010 as we expect, if cost reduction efforts are delayed, or if the financial services operation is impaired by further valuation losses.

Alternatively, we could revise the outlook to stable if we see that BMW is proving to be resilient in the current environment and showing sustainable improvements in the operating performance already in the next year. We expect the adjusted FFO to debt ratio to stay above 40% over the cycle.