Grazie!
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Trovato prospetto:
Molto utile, grazie...
Ancora negativo l'outlook compartimentale per Fitch per l'automotive europeo, specie per i produttori presenti soprattutto in Europa occidentale, con un forecast delle vendite a quota - 6/8%, dopo un - 5% nel 2009, in conseguenza del graduale venire meno degli incentivi alla rottamazione.
Serviranno ulteriori misure di riduzione della capacità produtti, licenziamenti, alleanze mirate alla generazione di sinergie ed al contenimento dei costi per fronteggiare questa persistente debolezza della vendite.
Fitch: European Auto Sector Stabilising but Outlook Remains Negative
23 Nov 2009 4:36 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London/Paris/Frankfurt-23 November 2009: Fitch Ratings says the European automotive industry is showing early signs of stabilisation and that 2010 should be a transition year, although the overall sector outlook remains negative due to weak sales trends.
"Fitch expects a slow and gradual recovery in operating performance trends from H210 but this will depend to a large extent on sales development when most scrapping incentive schemes in Europe and other regions expire," says Emmanuel Bulle, Senior Director in Fitch's European Corporates group.
"There is still a high degree of uncertainty about the extent of sales that are brought forward into 2009 from 2010 and the deterioration in product mix as a result of these schemes; the sustainability of economic recovery; and the improvement in consumer and corporate confidence."
Fitch remains concerned about further sales decrease in many regions, particularly western Europe as the scrapping schemes are phased out.
The agency forecasts auto sales in western Europe to decline by 6-8% in 2010, following a fall of approximately 5% in 2009.
Although the negative impact from the end of these incentive schemes - notably in Germany, Europe's largest market, where approximately one million vehicles were sold under this plan - should not be overestimated, the uncertainty around how sales will develop in 2010 remains significant.
It is unclear how incentives have distorted the used-car or new-car markets, and whether improving consumer confidence, higher credit availability and a timid increase in new car purchase intentions will mitigate the pay-back effect from expiring incentives schemes and potential rising unemployment.
Like all high fixed-costs sectors, the auto industry's profitability is particularly driven by revenue growth/decline. A collapse in sales in H208 and H109 led to falling operating margins and substantial cash outflows from rising inventories and working capital swings as production could not be cut back as swiftly.
Although the recent unwinding of working capital swings has boosted cash generation, further benefits of this magnitude would not be repeated in 2010. Furthermore, consumers have got used to price discounts and are likely to expect them going forward, which is likely to compound demand for smaller, less profitable cars and weigh further on the product mix.
Although global sales are likely to have bottomed out, they have stabilised at a low level, which could require further adjustments to the cost base.
Fitch notes that this recession did not lead to the material cut in assembly capacity and the industry consolidation that was anticipated at the start of the crisis, notably because of social and political issues. The agency expects the previous trend of selective alliances and agreements to continue in 2010 as well as discreet and gradual reductions in capacity and workforce, which are necessary to support a leaner cost structure that is more in line with reduced sales expectations.
"Depending on how sales develop and how effectively manufacturers respond to all challenges, H110 could see a stabilisation of Outlooks on some ratings," added Bulle.
However, in the absence of specific actions such as capital increases or asset sales, deleveraging should be a slow process for the lowest-rated companies, notably Renault ('BB'/Negative Outlook) which entered this recession with substantial financial debt.
Low profitability forecast by Fitch should also constrain the improvement in PSA's ('BB+'/'B' /Negative Outlook) and Daimler's ('BBB+'/'F2' /Negative Outlook) financial profiles next year.
Like Daimler which is exposed to the truck sector, Fiat's ('BB+'/'B'/Negative Outlook) faces the uncertainties and weak growth prospects of the truck, agricultural and construction equipment industries in 2010.
Volkswagen's ('BBB+'/'F2'/Stable Outlook) ratings are still supported by an above-average business profile, although its financial profile has deteriorated in the wake of the Porsche acquisition.
The major liquidity concerns facing the industry in late 2008/early 2009 have faded as credit markets reopened. All auto manufacturers accessed capital markets in 2009 and strengthened their liquidity positions.
Increased availability of funding has also supported financial services (FS) subsidiaries, although borrowing is now more expensive than before the start of the economic recession and auto industry crisis. A gradual stabilisation of auto manufacturers' credit profiles leading to declining borrowing costs, the modest improvement of the environment expected in 2010, and a confirmation of the recent recovery in used-car residual values should further support manufacturers' FS operations.
Fitch has also published today a comment on the European auto supply industry, entitled "2010 Another Difficult Year for European Auto Suppliers" and available on the agency's website,
FitchResearch.