Toyota ha annunciato una futura perdita molto più consistente di quella comunicata poche settimane fa per l'esercizio 2008 (che, per le società giapponesi, termina tradizionalmente il 31 marzo 2009).
In un mese e mezzo (tanto dista il precedente forecast per l'esercizio in chiusura al marzo 2009), Toyota ha ridotto ulteriormente le stime di vendita (con il fatturato del 2008 in calo di oltre il 17% y-o-y) e avanzando previsioni di una perdita operativa (450 mld JPY) e di una perdita netta (350 mld JPY) per l'esercizio in corso (ndr: che quindi sconta un trimestre gen-mar 2009 molto negativo...)
Pesano non solo i cali delle vendite, ma anche il forte effetto sui risultati della drastica rivalutazione delle Yen vs USD generata dai rientri del carry trade.
Ed arriva il downgrade di S&P dopo quello di Moody's, con rating scalato ad AA+ ed outlook che resta negativo, in considerazione della circostanza per cui l'intero 2009 sarà negativo per il comparto dell'auto e la situazione sfavorevole potrebbe protrarsi anche nel 2010.
Va da sé che la posizione del produttore nipponico, sia in termini di cash disponibile che di business profile, resta fortissima, come giustamente enfatizza la stessa S&P.
Toyota Downgraded To 'AA+' On Profitability And Cash Flow Pressures; Outlook Negative
TOKYO (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 6, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today lowered to 'AA+' from 'AAA' its long-term corporate credit ratings on Japan-based automaker Toyota Motor Corp. (Toyota) and a number of related entities, including Toyota Financial Services Corp. (TFS), Toyota Finance Corp., and Toyota Motor Credit Corp. (TMCC). At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term corporate credit ratings on Toyota and the related entities, and its 'A-1+' short-term debt ratings (including CP programs) on the related entities. The outlooks on the long-term ratings on the companies are negative.
The rating actions on Toyota and the related entities reflect Standard & Poor's view that significant near-term pressure on Toyota's profitability and cash flow, amid the continuous deterioration of global auto markets and the yen appreciation, has exceeded our initial expectations and is negatively affecting the company's financial profile to a limited extent.
The negative outlooks reflect Standard & Poor's view that Toyota's profitability will remain under considerable downward pressure. They also reflect our belief that demand seems certain to remain sharply depressed throughout calendar 2009, a situation that is likely to continue into 2010.
On Feb. 6, 2009, Toyota announced additional revisions to its earnings forecast for fiscal 2008 (ending March 31, 2009). The company lowered its global sales projection to 7.32 million units for the fiscal year, down from the 7.54 million units it announced on Dec. 22, 2008. This revised figure represents a 17.8% drop compared to actual unit sales in fiscal 2007 (ended March 31, 2008). The company now projects operating losses of ¥450 billion and a net loss of ¥350 billion for the current fiscal year.
Standard & Poor's believes that Toyota's minimal financial risk profile,
which is characterized by a strong capital structure with massive liquidity, is under increased pressure from a significantly reduced operating cash flow for the current fiscal year and possibly fiscal 2009 (ending March 31, 2010). Standard & Poor's believes that Toyota's overall cash position has, to a limited extent, been negatively impacted over the past several months by a significant decline in operating cash flow.
Notwithstanding this, Standard & Poor's is of the opinion that Toyota has the ability to control its excess inventory through the fiscal year end and substantially reduce capital expenditure in the next fiscal year, in order to offset weakened demand and control cash outflow in the challenging operating environment.
Toyota's overall liquidity remains very strong, including a part of its non-current investments in debt securities. Moreover, the advantages the company has in terms of its robust financial strength should continue to support its strategic flexibility, enabling Toyota to sustain high levels of R&D and providing it with ample resources to improve product competitiveness over the long term.
The ratings on Toyota could come under further downward pressure if
deterioration in the business environment continues for an extended period or if the company is unable to maintain its ability to keep its cash flow and cash position within appropriate levels, even if it were to take more rigorous measures in response to the challenging operating environment.
The outlook could see upward movement if Toyota's ongoing measures show signs of leading to a strong recovery in profitability and cash flow generation over the next 12 to 24 months.
Toyota boasts a formidable degree of competitiveness among global auto manufacturers. Indeed, it is particularly strong in terms of its robust product line-ups, technological leadership, geographic diversity, cost
efficiency, and financial strength. In light of these advantages, we view
Toyota as being better positioned than other global auto manufacturers to cope with the current market deterioration, as well as being the company likely to benefit most from the market recovery phase of the business cycle.