Non l' ho letto tutto ... ma mi sembra che faccia il paio con quello scritto poc'anzi da Mark, con una visuale piu' ampia all' intero settore.
E riguardo a Cognis fine mese dovrei avere un'appuntamento ... l' occasione sarà ghiotta .. per avere news dall' interno...magari anche una visita, chi lo sa?
25 March 2009 20:52
HOUSTON --The global financial crisis is destroying value throughout the chemical industry through bankruptcies and by plummeting bond values, a managing director of advisory investment bank Lazard said on Wednesday.
“There is a massive loss of debt in the chemical industry at the moment,” said Alasdair Nisbet, managing director and global head of chemicals for Lazard UK.
Nisbet spoke at the 2009 World Petrochemical Conference, held in Houston by Chemical Market Associates Inc (CMAI).
Many bonds are trading below par, leading to a destruction of wealth, Nisbet said. For the chemical industry as a whole,
that loss could be as large as $45bn (€33bn). 
About $30bn of that total is made up of LyondellBasell, INEOS, Hexion Specialty Chemicals, Huntsman and Momentive Performance Materials, he said.
Bankruptcies could destroy more wealth, as the value of old equity and bonds is destroyed, he said. Meanwhile, a bankruptcy filing substantially reduces the value of senior debt.
“The destruction is absolutely catastrophic,” he said.
So far, chemical companies are expecting their first-quarter results to be worse than those from the fourth quarter, which in itself was a dreadful, Nisbet said. Crucial end markets in housing, automobiles and consumer goods all remain weak, a trend that will drag down specialty chemicals as well as commodities.
While chemical companies contend with weaker demand, some will confront maturing debt at a time of tightened financial markets, Nisbet said. He estimated that $38bn will become due in 2009 and 2010.
Companies are responding by squeezing working capital, cutting capital expenditure and closing plants, he said. Some have started rationalisation programmes - although such a strategy is too expensive for some producers.
Divestments would be a less likely since valuations are so terrible, he said. Mergers could be possible among companies that concentrate in single products, such as fertilizer or food-ingredient producers, he said.
In all, Nisbet said he does not expect a strong recovery until 2011, a forecast that is more pessimistic than that made by others during the conference.
Nonetheless, the chemical industry will survive and become stronger, but it will also become much different, Nisbet said.
By 2014, the world’s petrochemicals base to shift further toward the Middle East, he said. Moreover, specialty chemicals will follow customers to emerging markets, Nisbet said.
The customer base in Europe and North America will consolidate, he said. A consolidation wave will also hit specialty chemicals.
e io che nn l'ho pijato ... 
