Come vedete il bond Lanxess in questo momento? Troppo rischio? Fitch a divembre li ha confermati come "BBB stable".
Il prezzo e' basso....troppo basso??
I bond Solvay mi piecerebbero ma hanno dei tagli enormi
DSM anche lui va a tagli da 50k e poi i bond accessibili x me sono lunghetti (il 15 e il 17), visto che il 14 e' troppo "fresco"....
E Syngenta? Sembra davvero interessante ma mi pare non si trovi lettera.
Torno al Lanxess......
L'ultimo quarter è stato chiuso in perdita... del primo quarter 2009 hanno detto che se proprio va grassa, finisce come il Q4/2008, altrimenti va peggio e non ci sono segnali di recupero della domanda per i propri prodotti... circostanza grave in quanto, per fattori legati alla periodicità delle vendite (secondo una analista della JP Morgan sentito dalla Reuters) nel Q1/y normalmente si realizza un EBITDA doppio rispetto a quello del Q4/y.
Ergo, il calo dell'EBITDA - rapportato all'andamento consueto - sarebbe nella migliore delle ipotesi pari al 50%
Fitch ad inizio dicembre aveva inquadrato la situazione di L. alla fine del Q3/2008, ancora nell'era pre-Lehman, quando il mondo era diverso...
Trovo che il management di L. sia piuttosto reattivo, ed infatti ha reagito dimezzando il dividendo e varando un piano di taglio dei costi piuttosto incisivo (250 mln euro in 2 anni il target).
La perdita del Q4/2008 è stata in parte generata dalla svalutazione delle giacenze di magazzino (andrebbe visto in che misura).
UPDATE 2-Lanxess slashes '08 div, says demand not recovering
Wed Mar 18, 2009 6:02am EDT
Sees Q1 core operating profit at best matching Q4
* Aims to cut costs by 250 mln eur over two years
* Halves dividend to 0.50 euros
* Shares down 8 percent
(Adds CEO comment, analyst comment, more details)
By Ludwig Burger
DUESSELDORF, Germany, March 18 (Reuters) - German specialty chemicals group Lanxess (
LXSG.DE) gave a gloomy outlook for the first quarter and unexpectedly halved its full year dividend payout to 0.50 euros per share, sending its shares lower.
Core operating profit in the traditionally strong first quarter will at best match the last three months of 2008, the company said on Wednesday, adding it had seen no signs of a recovery in demand.
Spun off from Bayer (
BAYG.DE) four years ago, Lanxess is facing "the biggest challenge so far in our corporate history", Chief Executive Axel Heitmann said.
It posted a net loss of 41 million euros in the fourth quarter, worse than the average of 33 million foreseen by analysts in a Reuters poll,
as demand for its products dipped and it wrote down inventories amid a slump in feedstock prices.
The rubber chemicals unit, which sells tyres and rubber tubes and took over Brazil's Petroflex SA last year, was hit particularly hard as the sharp downturn in the global automobile industry weighed heavily on its order book.
Fourth-quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and special items fell 23.7 percent to 87 million euros ($113 million), beating an average analyst forecast of 78 million.
The analysts had expected the group, which also produces chemicals for drugs, insecticides and leather treatments, to recommend a 2008 dividend payment of 0.99 euro per share, one cent below the payout on 2007 earnings.
J.P. Morgan analyst Heidi Vesterinen said the outlook for earnings was a concern given that Lanxess' first-quarter EBITDA had traditionally been double that of the preceding quarter.
The company's shares were down 8.6 percent at 11.92 euros by 0957 GMT against at 0.2 percent rise in Germany's midcap MDAX index .MDAXI.
COST CUTS
To counter the downturn, the group launched a cost-cutting programme that aims to save 250 million euros over the next two years.
Lanxess put a key rubber investment in Singapore on hold and temporarily curtailed output.
The group said on Wednesday its finances were solid and it was benefiting from the flexibility it gained by widening its global network of plants, allowing it to better adjust output to changes.
Lanxess shares trade at about 10 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months, in line with the global chemicals sector, according to StarMine, which weights estimates according to analysts' track record.
(editing by John Stonestreet)
