Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa
- Creatore Discussione lorenzo63
- Data di Inizio
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
In soldoni: fluttuazioni di prezzo previste al ribasso causa entrata in funzione impianti di produzione resine quindi molta offerta ... oltre ad implicazioni connesse dalla partenza della politica di dazi zero zona ASEAN.
SINGAPORE --The expected injection of more supply into the Asian markets may depress regional prices of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) well into November and December, industry sources said on Friday.
Many importers were unwilling to take October cargoes while some international resin producers began pricing cargoes on arrival basis to entice buying, traders said.
Recent plant start-ups in China and Saudi Arabia between May and September may cause a deluge of supply into the market, they said.
The benchmark PP injection and yarn grades have fallen 9.8% in China and 9.6% in southeast Asia in the four weeks ending 25 September, according to global chemical market intelligence service ICIS pricing.
The benchmark film grade high density PE (HDPE) fell 8.6% in China and 7.4% in southeast Asia over the same period, based on ICIS pricing data.
“PP prices may stabilise for a while in October due to restocking activities, but are expected to fall further in November and December as more of the new capacities come into the market,” a northeast Asian PP producer said.
Fujian Refining and Petrochemical Co (FREP) has a new 800,000 tonne/year polyethylene (PE) unit and a 400,000 tonne/year polypropylene (PP) unit, while Dushanzi Petrochemical's new facilities comprise a 550,000 tonne/year polypropylene (PP) plant and a 900,000 tonne/year polyethylene (PE) plant.
In Saudi Arabia, PetroRabigh operates a 900,000 tonne/year PE plant and a 700,000 tonne/year PP plant.
“PP prices are likely to stabilise for a while when China returns from the holidays, but are likely to fall again around mid October as supply from Dushanzi Petrochemical’s new plant is expected to hit the market in the second half of October,” a trader in east China said.
PP injection and yarn grades from FREP’s plant were already offered in east China at around CNY8,900-9,000/tonne ($1,303-1,318/tonne) delivered, the east China trader said.
The China market is closed on 1-8 October for the National Day celebrations.
Near-prime film grade HDPE and linear low density PE (LLDPE) from PetroRabigh’s plant were offered at $1,070-1,080/tonne CFR (cost and freight) China and $1,110/tonne delivered in Malaysia last week, Asian importers said.
Another potential downside was the prospect of US exporting more PE to Asia, the Middle East producer said.
“Low natural gas prices and weak PE demand at home may push US PE suppliers to export more to Asia in the fourth quarter,” he said.
“PE prices in Asia may fluctuate in the $900-1,000/tonne (€621-690/tonne) CFR China range by the end of the year,” he added.
Importers in southeast Asia could push back their December purchases to January to take advantage of the new zero-duty policy for intra-ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) trade, and that could exert further downward pressure on regional prices, traders said.
The zero-duty policy adopted by the ten ASEAN member countries, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, is expected to take effect from early 2010
SINGAPORE --The expected injection of more supply into the Asian markets may depress regional prices of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) well into November and December, industry sources said on Friday.
Many importers were unwilling to take October cargoes while some international resin producers began pricing cargoes on arrival basis to entice buying, traders said.
Recent plant start-ups in China and Saudi Arabia between May and September may cause a deluge of supply into the market, they said.
The benchmark PP injection and yarn grades have fallen 9.8% in China and 9.6% in southeast Asia in the four weeks ending 25 September, according to global chemical market intelligence service ICIS pricing.
The benchmark film grade high density PE (HDPE) fell 8.6% in China and 7.4% in southeast Asia over the same period, based on ICIS pricing data.
“PP prices may stabilise for a while in October due to restocking activities, but are expected to fall further in November and December as more of the new capacities come into the market,” a northeast Asian PP producer said.
Fujian Refining and Petrochemical Co (FREP) has a new 800,000 tonne/year polyethylene (PE) unit and a 400,000 tonne/year polypropylene (PP) unit, while Dushanzi Petrochemical's new facilities comprise a 550,000 tonne/year polypropylene (PP) plant and a 900,000 tonne/year polyethylene (PE) plant.
In Saudi Arabia, PetroRabigh operates a 900,000 tonne/year PE plant and a 700,000 tonne/year PP plant.
“PP prices are likely to stabilise for a while when China returns from the holidays, but are likely to fall again around mid October as supply from Dushanzi Petrochemical’s new plant is expected to hit the market in the second half of October,” a trader in east China said.
PP injection and yarn grades from FREP’s plant were already offered in east China at around CNY8,900-9,000/tonne ($1,303-1,318/tonne) delivered, the east China trader said.
The China market is closed on 1-8 October for the National Day celebrations.
Near-prime film grade HDPE and linear low density PE (LLDPE) from PetroRabigh’s plant were offered at $1,070-1,080/tonne CFR (cost and freight) China and $1,110/tonne delivered in Malaysia last week, Asian importers said.
Another potential downside was the prospect of US exporting more PE to Asia, the Middle East producer said.
“Low natural gas prices and weak PE demand at home may push US PE suppliers to export more to Asia in the fourth quarter,” he said.
“PE prices in Asia may fluctuate in the $900-1,000/tonne (€621-690/tonne) CFR China range by the end of the year,” he added.
Importers in southeast Asia could push back their December purchases to January to take advantage of the new zero-duty policy for intra-ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) trade, and that could exert further downward pressure on regional prices, traders said.
The zero-duty policy adopted by the ten ASEAN member countries, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, is expected to take effect from early 2010
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
Why the chemical and automotive industries need to work more closely together
THE GLOBAL financial crisis has made it painfully clear for the chemical industry that it is quite dependent on the automotive sector. As car sales, and especially production, fell off a cliff in the last four months of 2008, the chemical industry at the end of the automotive value chain was hit particularly hard.
Not only were fewer cars produced, but, at the same time, the consumer was downshifting. Smaller cars contain fewer and less advanced plastics. In addition, the truck market completely collapsed, with an expected 60% sales reduction in Western Europe and Japan for 2009.
Recovery is not expected to be swift. On a global level, with current demand down by 25-35%, and the incentive schemes coming to an end, car production will not recover before 2013. There are big regional differences - China is still growing, while numbers in Western Europe may never come back to 2007's record levels. More than ever, the automotive industry is being forced to put pressure on the margins of its suppliers.
The increased margin pressure, combined with the volume loss, the downgrading and the regional shift, indicate that the old chemical industry model of being able to gain good margins on continuous product innovation and cross-selling into different end industries will not be effective in the coming years - at least, for a majority of product categories.
The crisis comes at a time when the automotive industry is already facing a number of regulatory challenges and changes in consumer demands. As a result of the Kyoto Protocol and other agreements, emissions standards are being tightened in most industrialized countries. The industry is already making big improvements to the internal combustion engine, as well as introducing alternatives, such as hybrid power trains.
But it is becoming clear, as one development executive at Japanese car maker Toyota remarks, that those developments are insufficient to meet future emission requirements. It is essential that the weight of the car is considerably reduced. At the same time, there is a recycling directive in the EU, requiring that, by 2015, at least 95% of an end-of-life vehicle must be recycled.
Consumers have quite different requirements for cars. In industrialized countries, they want more comfort and environmental friendliness combined with ever-increasing safety features. In developing countries, mostly people simply want access to a car.
The last trend is driving development of the "low-cost" car. This class requires a completely new business model for development. India's Tata Motors states that, in the development of the Nano model, no chemical companies came up with any real new, low-cost solutions. They were mainly presented with standard grades of existing products. Only Germany's Bosch - one of the largest automotive suppliers in the world - developed a range of products especially for the Nano, driven by the attractive volume prospects.
Even with a good understanding of the problems and challenges mentioned above, two issues are complicating work on a joint solution. First, the lack of direct communication at the right levels. And second, the focus on short-term supply, instead of strategic, long-term requirements.
A new study by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, to be released on October 27 in cooperation with the European Chemical Marketing and Strategy Association, finds that most Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) work very closely with automotive Tier 1 suppliers to develop new cars.
This creates an extra layer within an already conservative industry for the introduction of new, innovative materials that the chemical companies could offer. It will take several development cycles (each typically around three years) before the innovations trickle down from the small-volume, luxury end to mass-produced, smaller cars.
Limited discussions are taking place within the chemical and automotive industries on longer-term future requirements, with many chemical companies and automotive suppliers looking for exclusivity deals. However, it is not thought to be sustainable, as many products being used are commodities.
As one top European OEM pointed out: "The automotive industry will use a lot more chemical commodities. We don't see any competitive advantage over our peers being the only one." For the coming years, the chemical industry will have to focus heavily on meeting the automotive industry's requirements. This may no longer be possible by developing products that can be sold across many industries, but more by products especially developed for the automotive sector.
On the other hand, the automotive OEMs have to understand that benefits must be shared between both industries. Continued innovation through more purely automotive-focused research and development (R&D) spending is only attractive with secure higher product volumes, as well as fair margins. For most chemical companies, it is clear that "the Lopez effect" - an extreme focus on cutting costs - on automotive procurement in the past has seriously interrupted the innovations needed to meet future challenges.
Throughout the study, participants from the automotive and chemical industries across the globe agreed on the need for a radical change in their relationships. There is also a common desire for commercial challenges among individual companies to remain.
Several automotive companies pointed to the cooperation they enjoy with the steel industry in general, where grades specific to cars have been developed through closer cooperation. In recent years, they have managed to make big improvements in reducing weight, while remaining competitive on sales to the OEMs.
Better cooperation between the automotive and chemical industries must start with a clear, common understanding of future strategic trends. Better-defined challenges (such as reducing weight and improved safety) will provide chemical companies with a clearer battleground, in terms of future specification and potential volume requirements. This also requires a good understanding of regional differences. For example, while one country may mainly value just a large car, another may crave every electronic gadget possible.
If attractive enough from a margin and volume point of view, the chemical industry can provide OEMs with specific automotive solutions, instead of a grade applicable also to the automotive market. First results from the automotive study show some clear steps on how to bring relationships between the chemicals and automotive industry towards a level more beneficial for both.
WHAT TO FOCUS ON
An exchange of requirements, including anticipated time schedules, leading to the definition of high-level strategic targets for the chemical industry. For the more advanced companies with closer OEM/Tier 1 relations, the result will be even more concrete opportunities.
The business case
Executives from the chemical industry should improve communications with their counterparts at the OEMs beyond the next model of car on the long-term (greater than five years) impact of trends on future volume requirements for the chemical industry's new products. This includes defining minimum volumes to justify development and production of products solely for the automotive industry.
implementation
Involvement - and cooperation - of all players along the whole automotive value chain: from the chemical industry via Tier 1 suppliers to the OEMs in adapting new materials.
Potential benefits
The automotive industry will be able to fulfill the requirements of customers, as well as regulations. Traditional Tier 1 suppliers will be able to participate in the introduction of new, advanced materials, and the chemical industry will focus its R&D spending. Even more importantly, the chemical industry will maintain sustainable and attractive business with the automotive industry
THE GLOBAL financial crisis has made it painfully clear for the chemical industry that it is quite dependent on the automotive sector. As car sales, and especially production, fell off a cliff in the last four months of 2008, the chemical industry at the end of the automotive value chain was hit particularly hard.
Not only were fewer cars produced, but, at the same time, the consumer was downshifting. Smaller cars contain fewer and less advanced plastics. In addition, the truck market completely collapsed, with an expected 60% sales reduction in Western Europe and Japan for 2009.
Recovery is not expected to be swift. On a global level, with current demand down by 25-35%, and the incentive schemes coming to an end, car production will not recover before 2013. There are big regional differences - China is still growing, while numbers in Western Europe may never come back to 2007's record levels. More than ever, the automotive industry is being forced to put pressure on the margins of its suppliers.
The increased margin pressure, combined with the volume loss, the downgrading and the regional shift, indicate that the old chemical industry model of being able to gain good margins on continuous product innovation and cross-selling into different end industries will not be effective in the coming years - at least, for a majority of product categories.
The crisis comes at a time when the automotive industry is already facing a number of regulatory challenges and changes in consumer demands. As a result of the Kyoto Protocol and other agreements, emissions standards are being tightened in most industrialized countries. The industry is already making big improvements to the internal combustion engine, as well as introducing alternatives, such as hybrid power trains.
But it is becoming clear, as one development executive at Japanese car maker Toyota remarks, that those developments are insufficient to meet future emission requirements. It is essential that the weight of the car is considerably reduced. At the same time, there is a recycling directive in the EU, requiring that, by 2015, at least 95% of an end-of-life vehicle must be recycled.
Consumers have quite different requirements for cars. In industrialized countries, they want more comfort and environmental friendliness combined with ever-increasing safety features. In developing countries, mostly people simply want access to a car.
The last trend is driving development of the "low-cost" car. This class requires a completely new business model for development. India's Tata Motors states that, in the development of the Nano model, no chemical companies came up with any real new, low-cost solutions. They were mainly presented with standard grades of existing products. Only Germany's Bosch - one of the largest automotive suppliers in the world - developed a range of products especially for the Nano, driven by the attractive volume prospects.
Even with a good understanding of the problems and challenges mentioned above, two issues are complicating work on a joint solution. First, the lack of direct communication at the right levels. And second, the focus on short-term supply, instead of strategic, long-term requirements.
A new study by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, to be released on October 27 in cooperation with the European Chemical Marketing and Strategy Association, finds that most Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) work very closely with automotive Tier 1 suppliers to develop new cars.
This creates an extra layer within an already conservative industry for the introduction of new, innovative materials that the chemical companies could offer. It will take several development cycles (each typically around three years) before the innovations trickle down from the small-volume, luxury end to mass-produced, smaller cars.
Limited discussions are taking place within the chemical and automotive industries on longer-term future requirements, with many chemical companies and automotive suppliers looking for exclusivity deals. However, it is not thought to be sustainable, as many products being used are commodities.
As one top European OEM pointed out: "The automotive industry will use a lot more chemical commodities. We don't see any competitive advantage over our peers being the only one." For the coming years, the chemical industry will have to focus heavily on meeting the automotive industry's requirements. This may no longer be possible by developing products that can be sold across many industries, but more by products especially developed for the automotive sector.
On the other hand, the automotive OEMs have to understand that benefits must be shared between both industries. Continued innovation through more purely automotive-focused research and development (R&D) spending is only attractive with secure higher product volumes, as well as fair margins. For most chemical companies, it is clear that "the Lopez effect" - an extreme focus on cutting costs - on automotive procurement in the past has seriously interrupted the innovations needed to meet future challenges.
Throughout the study, participants from the automotive and chemical industries across the globe agreed on the need for a radical change in their relationships. There is also a common desire for commercial challenges among individual companies to remain.
Several automotive companies pointed to the cooperation they enjoy with the steel industry in general, where grades specific to cars have been developed through closer cooperation. In recent years, they have managed to make big improvements in reducing weight, while remaining competitive on sales to the OEMs.
Better cooperation between the automotive and chemical industries must start with a clear, common understanding of future strategic trends. Better-defined challenges (such as reducing weight and improved safety) will provide chemical companies with a clearer battleground, in terms of future specification and potential volume requirements. This also requires a good understanding of regional differences. For example, while one country may mainly value just a large car, another may crave every electronic gadget possible.
If attractive enough from a margin and volume point of view, the chemical industry can provide OEMs with specific automotive solutions, instead of a grade applicable also to the automotive market. First results from the automotive study show some clear steps on how to bring relationships between the chemicals and automotive industry towards a level more beneficial for both.
WHAT TO FOCUS ON
An exchange of requirements, including anticipated time schedules, leading to the definition of high-level strategic targets for the chemical industry. For the more advanced companies with closer OEM/Tier 1 relations, the result will be even more concrete opportunities.
The business case
Executives from the chemical industry should improve communications with their counterparts at the OEMs beyond the next model of car on the long-term (greater than five years) impact of trends on future volume requirements for the chemical industry's new products. This includes defining minimum volumes to justify development and production of products solely for the automotive industry.
implementation
Involvement - and cooperation - of all players along the whole automotive value chain: from the chemical industry via Tier 1 suppliers to the OEMs in adapting new materials.
Potential benefits
The automotive industry will be able to fulfill the requirements of customers, as well as regulations. Traditional Tier 1 suppliers will be able to participate in the introduction of new, advanced materials, and the chemical industry will focus its R&D spending. Even more importantly, the chemical industry will maintain sustainable and attractive business with the automotive industry
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
Sempre per quanto riguarda i prezzi ci sono tensioni per il benzene, per lo stirene (al ribasso) .. questo influenzerà i prezzi di diverse materie plastiche e prodotti indutstriali ... Ma in prospettiva, stante la ciclicità del comparto: che sia in arrivo la famosa correzione?
Imark
Forumer storico
E' ben possibile... peraltro si segnala debolezza persistente specialmente nel downstream dell'Oil & gas, ossia nella raffinazione, i cui margini sono previsti in ulteriore compressione per molti mesi ... una situazione che potrebbe acuirsi in caso di indebolimento dei corsi dell'oil rispetto ai prezzi attuali.
Capirex85
Value investor
Una precisazione per quanto riguarda i margini nel downstream: non è tanto una questione del livello del prezzo del petrolio in s'è ma piuttosto del differenziale di prezzo tra greggi pesanti e greggi leggeri, del cambio euro dollaro e della domanda di prodotti raffinati come il gasolio. E' l'upstream che dipende molto dal prezzo del greggio.
Imark
Forumer storico
Imark
Forumer storico
Cerco di recuperare un po' di arretrati ... segnalo questa situazione recente di rimozione del rating da parte di Moody's su Evonik Degussa, abbastanza anomala per le modalità con cui si è verificata: per iniziativa dell'agenzia di rating, in quanto non vengono più pubblicati i conti consolidati di Evonik Degussa come subholding ed entità distinta parte del gruppo, ma solo quelli di Evonik Industries e per la contestuale mancanza di condizioni di garanzia parentale di Evonik Industries verso i creditori di Evonik Degussa.
Dovrebbe essere una condizione temporanea, in quanto la stessa Moody's fa rpesente che Evonik Industries ha manifestato l'intenzione di richiedere un rating per l'intero gruppo, ed in quelle circostanze è verosimile che manifesti l'intenzione di accordare sostegno parentale ai creditori di Evonik Degussa, come si suole fare in queste circostanze.
Moody's withdraws Evonik Degussa's ratings
London, 15 September 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today withdrawn the Baa3/P-3 senior unsecured issuer and debt ratings of Evonik Degussa GmbH ("Evonik Degussa"). The rating action concludes the review for possible downgrade initiated on 24 March 2009 prompted by the severe deterioration in operating conditions experienced by Evonik Degussa in late 2008/early 2009.
The issuer and debt ratings of Evonik Degussa have been withdrawn at Moody's initiative. Moody's considers that following the discontinuation of the publication of separate consolidated accounts for the Evonik Degussa sub-group and in the absence of an irrevocable and unconditional guarantee provided by Evonik Industries in favour of Evonik Degussa's debtholders, the agency is not able to maintain and monitor Evonik Degussa's ratings on a stand-alone basis. Evonik Industries has indicated its intention to seek a rating for the broader Evonik Industries group in the future.
Please refer to Moody's Withdrawal Policy on moodys.com.
Moody's previous rating action on Evonik Degussa was the placement of its Baa3/P-3 ratings under review for possible downgrade on 24 March 2009.
...
Headquartered in Essen, Germany, Evonik Degussa is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Evonik Industries AG and a leading global specialty and intermediate chemicals group with sales of EUR11.5 billion in 2008.
Dovrebbe essere una condizione temporanea, in quanto la stessa Moody's fa rpesente che Evonik Industries ha manifestato l'intenzione di richiedere un rating per l'intero gruppo, ed in quelle circostanze è verosimile che manifesti l'intenzione di accordare sostegno parentale ai creditori di Evonik Degussa, come si suole fare in queste circostanze.
Moody's withdraws Evonik Degussa's ratings
London, 15 September 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today withdrawn the Baa3/P-3 senior unsecured issuer and debt ratings of Evonik Degussa GmbH ("Evonik Degussa"). The rating action concludes the review for possible downgrade initiated on 24 March 2009 prompted by the severe deterioration in operating conditions experienced by Evonik Degussa in late 2008/early 2009.
The issuer and debt ratings of Evonik Degussa have been withdrawn at Moody's initiative. Moody's considers that following the discontinuation of the publication of separate consolidated accounts for the Evonik Degussa sub-group and in the absence of an irrevocable and unconditional guarantee provided by Evonik Industries in favour of Evonik Degussa's debtholders, the agency is not able to maintain and monitor Evonik Degussa's ratings on a stand-alone basis. Evonik Industries has indicated its intention to seek a rating for the broader Evonik Industries group in the future.
Please refer to Moody's Withdrawal Policy on moodys.com.
Moody's previous rating action on Evonik Degussa was the placement of its Baa3/P-3 ratings under review for possible downgrade on 24 March 2009.
...
Headquartered in Essen, Germany, Evonik Degussa is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Evonik Industries AG and a leading global specialty and intermediate chemicals group with sales of EUR11.5 billion in 2008.
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
Vero.
Inoltre vi è da osservare che è un po' piu' raro lo sweet light ed in generale i piu' leggeri ed a basso contenuto di zolfo ..adatto/i ad essere trasformato in benzina... Poi vi è un certo calo dei consumi (gli USA, se nn ricordo male bruciano circa il 45% mondiale della benzina, quindi un piano di riduzione consumi con macchine meno assetate puo' provocare a sua volta una certa tensione..) ed inoltre c'è un problema legato alle raffinerie: è un po' che si costruisce nulla..I costi della raffinazione del greggio pesante sono molto + alti..
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