Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa

[lorenzo63]

14 settembre 2009 @ 09:28:50 CEST
Avviate le procedure ad un anno dalla chiusura dell'impianto cloro soda.

Il Tribunale di Udine ha dichiarato aperta la procedura di amministrazione straordinaria di Caffaro Srl, società del gruppo Snia, in liquidazione. La decisione è stata presa a seguito del provvedimento n. 72/09 depositato il 22 luglio 2009 nell'ambito della procedura di Amministrazione Straordinaria di cui al D. Lgs. 270/1999 (c.d. legge "Prodi-bis") aperta in capo alla società Caffaro Chimica, che aveva dichiarato lo stato di insolvenza in estensione di Caffaro Srl..

L'avvio dell'Amministrazione straordinaria avviene a un anno esatto dal sequestro dell'impianto cloro-soda di Torviscosa (UD) eseguito dai Carabinieri del nucleo NOE di Udine, in seguito a indagini avviate nel 2001 per presunti reati ambientali. Da allora l'impianto è chiuso e un centinaio di lavoratori sono in cassa integrazione.

La società aveva chiesto il dissequestro dell'impianto, con l'impegno ad attuare alcuni lavori di ammodernamento, ma la richiesta era stata respinta dal Tribunale di Udine.

Nel Gennaio di quest'anno, Caffaro Chimica e Caffaro srl sono state messe in liquidazione e, in aprile, è stata presentata dal liquidatore di Caffaro Chimica la richiesta di ammissione alla procedura di amministrazione straordinaria (Prodi bis), accolta il 19 maggio scorso.

 

[lorenzo63]

German chemical Industry expects recovery to continue

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- German chemical companies expect demand to recover in the second half as industrial production rises, industry association VCI said.

“The worst for the chemical industry seems to be behind us,” Ulrich Lehner, president of German chemical association VCI, said in a statement today. VCI said chemical production in the second quarter rose 2.5 percent from the year’s first three months, the first increase in four quarters.

The industry is recovering as industrial production in Germany and Europe is stabilizing, automotive and metal production is increasing and construction companies are securing orders from government stimulus programs, VCI said.

European industrial orders in June increased 3.1 percent from May, the biggest gain in 19 months, indicating that the worst recession in six decades is easing.

German chemical makers overall were using about 74.4 percent of capacity in the second quarter of this year, compared with 72 percent in the first, VCI said. Production declined 16 percent in the second quarter, improving from a drop of 18 percent in the first. The industry has bottomed out and is slowly recovering, the association said.

German chemical companies are reducing production by the most in 34 years. VCI today repeated its forecast of a full-year chemical production drop of about 10 percent in 2009, the biggest since 1975, with sales falling 12 percent for the industry.

German chemical companies employed about 436,800 people in the second quarter of 2009, VCI said, a decline of 1.1 percent from a year earlier. VCI represents 1,600 chemical makers, with total sales of 176.5 billion euros ($251 billion) in 2008

 

[Imark]

Una scelta controcorrente per Solvay, che cede il pharma ad Abbott Laboratories per potersi concentrare sulla sola chimica e dichiara tuttavia che investirà i proventi della vendita nel tentativo di ridurre la ciclicità del proprio business, puntando su di una acquisizione nel comparto della chimica delle specialità (meno legata al ciclo economico di altri segmenti del comparto).

Stabile sui prezzi recenti il perpetual Solvay, che era cresciuto sia per effetto del recupero generalizzato del segmento, sia sulle news della prossima vendita per contanti della divisione pharma..

Dal WSJ online...

• SEPTEMBER 28, 2009, 11:53 A.M. ET

FOCUS: Solvay Plans New Life As Chemicals, Plastics Play


By Alessandro Torello
of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--The sale of its cash cow pharma unit leaves Belgium's Solvay SA (SOLB.BT) a pure chemicals and plastics player that wants to reinvent itself by investing the billions of euros it got from Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in potential high growth markets, like South America and Asia.

The company, one of Belgium's oldest, will get EUR4.5 billion cash from its deal with the U.S. drugs company. It looks set to use much of that on opening up new plants in key regions and by making acquisitions in the core chemicals and plastics arenas.

"We are building a new refocus for the group," said Chief Executive Christian Jourquin. He said Solvay intends to focus on specific regions where the potential for growth is clear, as well as on products with high added value. The conglomerate said earlier this year that demand was picking up in Asia, thanks to China, and in the four Mercosur trading bloc nations - Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Solvay might have better chances to make acquisitions in plastics, while developing its own business in chemicals, said Degroof analyst Bernard Hanssens.

Plastics companies work closely with the clients to develop specific products, therefore the fastest way to grow would be through acquisitions.
In chemicals, Solvay has solid potential to expand its own production in Asia, Hanssens added.

Solvay is likely to be targeting companies which have some cutting edge technology, in areas such as components for energy solar panels, and in niche products with high margins and strong growth potential.

Speculation has already begun over which companies Solvay might target.
Belgian specialist materials company Umicore SA (UMI.BT) is a recurring name. It is a specialized, niche chemical maker, it is strong in Asia, and it has a good return on capital, noted Hanssens.

Umicore's head of investor relations Geoffroy Raskin had no comment.

Shares in Umicore gained 3.9% Monday, the day of Solvay's announcement, making them the best performers in the Bel-20 index of shares listed in Brussels. ASOlvay's stock meanwhile fell 0.1%, one of the only two negative stocks Monday.

Solvay's share price performance Monday might have reflected disappointment over the price the group got for its pharmaceuticals unit. Some analysts were expecting a somewhat higher price compared with the overall value of the pharma transaction, which the company set at around EUR5.2 billion.

Whatever the company wants to do with the money, it needs to act fast, so that it can already start bidding once it gets the cash early next year. "Every day you have the cash sitting there, you lose millions," said Fabian Wenner, an analyst at UBS.

 

[lorenzo63]

Congiuntura datata Luglio 2009 di Federchimica ...

.. Ma ancora interessante...Vedi l'allegato Panel_Congiunturale_Chimica luglio 2009.pdf

 

[Imark]

Caro Lorenzo, volevo chiederti se potresti inserire in monitor il bond 5 %:K+S Aktiengesellschaft 2014 ISIN DE000A1A6FV5 ...

OnVista: Anleihenanalyse - K+S AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT ANLEIHE V.2009(2014) - Snapshot

 

[Imark]

Condizioni di partenza molto difficili: il bond è forse un attimo sovraquotato ai prezzi attuali... il calo delle vendite è stato drastico nel primo semestre, anche per effetto di una stagione invernale piuttosto prolungata nel 2009, che ha inciso sui volumi di vendita dei fertilizzanti: -30,8% y-o-y, con un -58% y-o-y dell'EBITDA da imputare ad una certa incomprimibilità della struttura dei costi aziendali, con una elevata percentuale di costi fissi, stimata da Moody's al 50%, così come al 50% si è attestato il livello di utilizzazione degli impianti nel primo semestre...

Insomma, risultati molto deboli, ed il secondo semestre dovrebbe andare peggio: portando ad una stabilizzazione su livelli bassi dei volumi e ad un indebolimento del pricing... per chi potesse comprarlo, il titolo è da valutare sulla debolezza, in occasione della presentazione di prossime trimestrali.

Anche perché i parametri valutativi del debito, per adesso ancora sostenuti rispetto alla media del rating, vanno anch'essi a peggiorare nei prossimi due trimestri, sia per effetto del confronto con i risultati record del Q3/2008 sia per l'impatto sui conti della chiusura dell'acquisizione dell'americana Morton Salt.

Di più, la situazione descritta dovrebbe portare K+S per fine anno a trovarsi in una situazione critica sul piano del rispetto dei covenant sul debito, con l'ulteriore conseguenza di dover negoziare un waiver o un resettaggio degli stessi, che l'agenzia reputa verrà accordato, anche in considerazione delle misure allo studio del management per rafforzare il profilo della liquidità disponibile.

Moody's changes its outlook on K+S' Baa2 rating to Negative

No Rated Outstanding Debt Securities affected

Frankfurt, September 04, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Services has today changed the outlook on K+S' LT Baa2 issuer rating to Negative from Stable.

The change in the outlook to negative was prompted by a rapid deterioration of the operating performance and cash flow generation of the group during the first six months of fiscal year 2009. K+S has faced very difficult market conditions in H1 2009 with a slump in volumes (-30.8% y-o-y at the group level and -54% at the Potash and Magnesium Products division) leading to substantial pressure on EBITDA (-58% y-o-y).

While K+S has implemented temporary measures to reduce costs the high operational leverage of the group (fixed costs are estimated to account for at least 50% of the group's total cost base) has led to an over proportional deterioration in profitability despite relatively strong pricing in H1 2009 (capacity utilization was around 50% in H1 2009).

Moody's expects that trading conditions will remain challenging during the second half of the year with volumes expected to remain at the same level as in H1 2009 and prices to decrease from healthy first half levels.

Debt metrics which were still very comfortably positioned in the current Baa2 rating category on an LTM June 2009 basis with RCF / Net Debt of 107% and FCF / Net debt of 25% respectively versus expectations of mid thirties and mid teens for the rating are expected to weaken materially in the second half as K+S will face challenging comparatives (Q3 2008 has been a historical record quarter for the company) and will close the acquisition of Morton Salt for a total consideration of USD1,675million before year end.

Debt metrics will most likely be below our expectation for the rating at fiscal year end 2009 before recovering gradually in 2010.

In the context of weakening operating cash flow generation and the consolidation of a material amount of debt pursuant to the acquisition of Morton Salt, Moody's anticipates that K+S could possibly be in breach of covenants towards year end exerting negative pressure on the liquidity profile of the group.

The agency believes that there is a relatively high likelihood that covenants will be temporarily waived or reset. The agency also understands that the management of K+S is currently examining all options to bolster its liquidity profile possibly including instruments such as equity rights issue and / or receivables factoring. The implementation of these measures bears execution risk, which the agency will closely monitor over the near term future.

Moody's would reassess its outlook on the rating if K+S would prove successful in implementing measures to shore up its liquidity profile providing sufficient headroom under its financial covenants throughout fiscal year 2009 and 2010 and to restore credit metrics in line with our expectation for the current rating by the end of fiscal year 2010.
The last rating action was on April 28, 2009, when K+S AG was assigned a first time rating of Baa2 with a Stable Outlook.

....

Headquartered in Kassel, Germany, K+S AG is the world's fourth largest potash fertilizer producer and one of the world's largest salt producer. The company is vertically-integrated and operates six potash mines as well as eleven salt mines in Germany, the Netherlands and Latin America. K+S reported revenues of EUR4,794 million and an EBITDA of EUR1,484 million for the fiscal year ended 31st December 2008. The company employed 12,214 employees in 2008.

 

[lorenzo63]

BASF Aims to Boost Asian Sales, Tapping China Demand

Una piccola traduzione per chi ha difficoltà con l' inglisc lol

Basf investirà in Cina ed in altre parti dell' Asia 2 mld euro prevedendo di raddoppiare le vendite entro il 2020
Dice che la regione Asia PAcifico è gia' ora il piu' grande mercato chemicals nel mondo e prevede che diventerà ancora piu' grande stante la domanda che diventerà ancora + elevata di grattacieli auto ... inoltre molte dei suoi clienti stanno rilocando le proprie industrie in zona per via dei bassi costi.

Nel 2008, la regione Asia-Pacifico ha contribuito al 15%, di € 9,3 miliardi, per le vendite totali di BASF di € 62.3 miliardi di euro. Circa il 45% delle vendite in Asia-Pacifico, è venuto dalla Cina.
L'espansione aggiungerà altri 5,000 persone entro il 2020, portandoli fino a 20.000. BASF ha detto che ha investito € 6,2 miliardi nel Cina negli ultimi 15 anni.

In un momento in cui la domanda di prodotti chimici sta crollando in mezzo alla crisi economica globale, BASF e altri stanno vedendo i primi segnali di ripresa nella regione. Dow Chemical Co. Chief Executive Andrew Liveris ha detto che il pacchetto di stimolo della Cina ha incrementato gli acquisti di materiali da costruzione e prodotti di consumo come l'elettronica, spingendo le vendite della società nel secondo trimestre.
Altre imprese chimiche si sono incentrate sulla crescita in Asia. Prodotturi chimici come la belga Solvay SA ha detto che investirà i € 4,5 milioni che ha tratto dalla vendita del suo business farmaceutico alla Abbott Laboratories in mercati in forte crescita come l'Asia.

All'inizio di questo mese, il costruttore di chimicals specialties tedesco Lanxess AG ha annunciato due acquisti nella regione: in India Gwalior Chemical Industries Ltd. per € 82.4 milioni di euro, incluso il debito, e Jiangsu polioli Chemical Co. in Cina (somma non rilvelata)

Insomma: se si sposta la chimica ... credetemi pochi dubbi sull' europa.


FRANKFURT -- BASF SE said Tuesday it will invest €2 billion ($2.9 billion) in China and other parts of Asia over the next four years in an effort to double sales there by 2020.

The Asia-Pacific region is already the largest chemicals market in the world but is expected to grow even bigger as demand for cars, skyscrapers and highways rises along with incomes. At the same time, chemical companies are finding that more of their customers are relocating their manufacturing operations to low-cost countries in the region.

BASF, the world's largest chemicals company, said it estimates the overall Asia-Pacific chemical market, excluding pharmaceuticals, has the potential to grow to €1.15 trillion by 2020 from €650 billion last year and account for nearly half of all chemical sales world-wide.

In 2008, the Asia-Pacific region contributed 15%, or €9.3 billion, to BASF's total sales of €62.3 billion. About 45% of Asia-Pacific sales came from China, the company said.

In the first half of 2009, the region accounted for 20% of overall sales, with nearly half coming from China. The company employed 13,700 people there as of the end of 2008.

Germany-based BASF strengthened its foothold in the region earlier this year with its €3.8 billion acquisition of Swiss chemicals maker Ciba AG, which already had 55 sites in 10 countries and 2,000 employees with regional sales of €1 billion.

Martin Brudermüller, a member of BASF's board of executive directors, said BASF won't be making any other big acquisitions in the region so that it can focus on the integration of Ciba.

BASF said about $1.4 billion of the company's new investment will go toward the expansion of its 50% integrated chemical-production joint venture in Nanjing, which was approved by the Chinese government in July. BASF is partners with Sinopec Corp. in the venture and has spent $2.9 billion on the plant, which opened in June 2005.

The expansion will add 5,000 to the regional work force by 2020, taking it up to 20,000. BASF said it has invested €6.2 billion in China over the past 15 years.

The company's strategy for the next decade will be to push farther inland into emerging provinces that are benefiting from new state development incentives. The company also plans to expand in untapped markets such as Vietnam. It says it is nearing its goal of generating 70% of regional sales from local production.

At a time when demand for chemicals is slumping amid the global economic downturn, BASF and others are seeing the first signs of recovery in the region. Dow Chemical Co. Chief Executive Andrew Liveris recently said China's stimulus package boosted purchases of building materials and consumer products such as electronics, pushing up the company's sales in the second quarter.

After scaling back overall production in response to the drop in demand, BASF is now at full capacity in China, while the rest of Asia is "crawling back," Mr. Brudermüller said Tuesday during a teleconference from Hong Kong.

The company's push in Asia makes sense, and it will outperform its European peers in the long run thanks to its ties in China, Heino Ruland, analyst at Ruland Research GmbH wrote in a note.

Other chemical companies are also focusing on growth in Asia. Belgian chemicals maker Solvay SA said it will invest the €4.5 billion it made from selling its pharmaceutical business to Abbott Laboratories in high-growth markets such as Asia.

Earlier this month, German specialty-chemicals maker Lanxess AG announced two purchases in the region: India's Gwalior Chemical Industries Ltd. for €82.4 million, including debt, and Jiangsu Polyols Chemical Co. in China for an undisclosed sum.

BASF has been more conservative than its peers in predicting a global turnaround. In July, the company cut its full-year outlook after second-quarter net profit fell 74% from a year earlier and said it expects no sustained improvement this year.

 

[lorenzo63]

Caro Lorenzo, volevo chiederti se potresti inserire in monitor il bond 5 %:K+S Aktiengesellschaft 2014 ISIN DE000A1A6FV5 ...

OnVista: Anleihenanalyse - K+S AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT ANLEIHE V.2009(2014) - Snapshot

Ciao Antonio,
Oggi dovrei riuscire a mettere online l'aggiornamento.
Non hai davvero un' idea del casotto gordiano che ero riuscito a fare dentro quel foglio di lavoro... ma (forse) ho "domato" l' excel (il termine domare è riferito ad un caro Amico del forum che affettuosamente saluto..ciao Sam..)

 

[Imark]

Intanto procede la progressiva separazione della chimica dalla farmaceutica e si riduce il numero delle cd. "società ibride", che comprendono una divisione chimica ed una farmaceutica.

Fra i trend del settore, il cd. decoupling ha riguardata negli ultimi anni Akzo Nobel, Altana ed ora Solvay, che hanno disinvestito il pharma a favore della chimica, mentre Bayer e Merck KgaA restano ibride, ma hanno investito di recente nella chimica, la prima acquisendo Schering, e la seconda Serono.

Perché si focalizzaz sull'una o sull'altra attività ? Per chi fosse incuriosito, Fitch avanza qui alcune risposte. In linea di massima, le due attività vanno sempre più differenziandosi soprattutto sul profilo della gestione di business:

Fitch: Limited Scale and Synergies Continue to Drive De-Coupling Trend in Pharma-Chemicals Industry

28 Sep 2009 5:58 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London-28 September 2009: Fitch Ratings says that most companies active in the pharmaceutical and chemical industries do not have the financial resources to be strong players in both sectors, primarily due to the different competitive challenges of the respective industries and their limited synergies.

As a result, chemical companies such as Solvay SA, Altana AG and Akzo Nobel N.V. have chosen to divest their pharmaceuticals businesses, while Bayer and Merck KGaA are only the major European players that have opted to invest in pharmaceuticals.

"The dilemma for hybrid companies is that by tying up substantial financial resources in their pharmaceuticals operations, which typically suffer from a lack in comparative critical mass to standalone pharmaceutical competitors in terms of R&D and sales force, these companies limit their ability to increase size and scale in chemicals, which like in pharmaceuticals are amongst the most important determinants of success in chemicals," says Britta Holt, Director in Fitch's Corporate team.

In pharmaceuticals, size in therapeutic treatment areas is a key characteristic to achieving economies of scale in R&D and the distribution sales force. As competition between pharmaceutical companies is driven by novelty and treatment advances and the bringing to market of new drugs rather than by price and costs, R&D is of critical importance to such groups. At 15%-17% of sales annually, the pharmaceuticals sector's R&D spend is one of the highest of all industries. Chemical companies R&D spend, in contrast, is generally only 2%-5%.

Similar to the pharmaceuticals sector, increased size and scale in the chemical industry also leads to reductions in fixed costs, albeit in different parts of the business. Chemical companies can achieve scale benefits through combined R&D budgets across various chemicals divisions. More significantly, production can be more integrated, with, for example, the waste-product of one product being used as the input product for the next production process. Alternatively, energy may be derived from the production processes themselves and then be used internally. Further advantages are derived from purchasing power and logistics.

Given that chemical manufacturers' raw material costs are normally between 40%-50% of total operating costs, bundling volumes and the advantage of being an attractive customer for its suppliers is a significant source of profit generation. A company's size also allows it to integrate upstream, enabling it to become independent of raw materials price fluctuations, and resulting in additional cost savings. Finally, increased size also results in higher product and customer diversity and therefore reduces inherent earnings cyclicality.

Solvay's decision to sell its pharma business to Abbott Laboratories Inc follows that by Dutch hybrid Akzo Nobel in 2006 and German hybrid Altana AG in 2005 to separate their two businesses. For the time being, the only major European companies left with both pharmaceuticals and chemicals operations are Bayer AG and Merck KGaA (Merck). Both companies decided to invest in pharma, with Merck acquiring the Swiss biotech company Serono S.A. in 2007 and Bayer taking over Schering AG in 2006.

The decoupling trend is not new: In 2001, BASF AG took the lead in selling off its pharmaceutical operations to Abbott Laboratories, and other major chemicals groups followed suit. In the same year, DuPont sold its pharmaceutical activities to Bristol-Meyers Squibb Company

 

[Imark]

Intanto arrivano le reazioni delle agenzie alla vendita del pharma da parte di Solvay, con Fitch che riduce il rating ad A- (con il perpetual che scende a BBB+) e tiene la società in osservazione per un possibile ulteriore taglio del rating nel breve termine.

Le ragioni del calo sono proprio nella stabilizzazione del profilo di business di Solvay comportato dal pharma, tradizionalmente aciclico, e che ancora di recente aveva contenuto il calo del fatturato generato dal crollo della richiesta per alcuni primari prodotti della divisione che accorpa le attività della chimica.

Sebbene Solvay abbia dichiarato di puntare ad utilizzare i proventi della dismissione per acquisizioni che mirino a generare una minore sensibilità delle vendite all'andamento del ciclo economico, le incognite sul rischio legato al nuovo profilo di business della società nonché della sua futura politica di gestione sotto il profilo finanziario restano significative finché non verranno chiarite dalla stessa Solvay.

Un po' di debolezza del prezzo sul perpetual, legato più alla cattiva giornata dell'equity sui mercati europei, che ha impattato i prezzi di questi titoli, che non ad un downgrade che peraltro riallinea il rating dato da Fitch a Solvay con quello assegnato da altre agenzie.

Fitch Downgrades Solvay's Long-term IDR to 'A-'; Places Ratings on RWN

28 Sep 2009 12:26 PM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London/Frankfurt-28 September 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Belgium-based Solvay S.A.'s (Solvay) Long-term Issuer Default (IDR) and senior unsecured ratings to 'A-' from 'A', and its subordinated hybrid bond to 'BBB+' from 'A-'. The ratings have been placed on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). At the same time, the Short-term IDR has been downgraded to 'F2' from 'F1'

The downgrades reflect Fitch's concern that the disposal of Solvay's pharmaceuticals operations announced today will leave the group with increased business risk of the remaining cyclical chemicals and plastics activities, as pharmaceuticals were seen as a stabilising product group for the company.

Although Solvay has announced its intention to use the disposal proceeds for acquisitions and organic growth projects in the chemicals and plastics sectors, which is aimed at reducing the portfolio's cyclicality, the RWN reflects uncertainty over how the proceeds will be deployed among the group's businesses. Fitch expects to resolve the RWN once Solvay announces the details of its investment plan and its future financial policy.

Solvay has agreed to sell its pharmaceutical business (EUR2.7bn sales/EUR600m EBITDA in FY08) to Abbott Laboratories ('A+'/'F1'/Stable) for an enterprise value of EUR5.2bn (EV/LTM REBITDA of 9x). After an extensive strategic review initiated in April, Solvay has opted to decouple pharma from chemicals activities, a trend which Fitch discussed in a separate comment, "Limited Scale and Synergies Continue to Drive De-Coupling Trend in Pharma-Chemicals Industry", also published today (available on FitchResearch).

Solvay will receive a EUR4.5bn cash payment at closing of the transaction and could receive up to a further EUR300m upon Abbott's delivery of agreed sales targets linked to the pharmaceutical product, Androgel. At the same time, Abbott will assume about EUR400m of certain liabilities, mainly related to pensions. Solvay expects to close the transaction in Q110. The transaction will bring Solvay into an approximately EUR2.6bn net cash position, albeit temporarily.

The ratings reflect Solvay's strong market positions in several of its products. While the group has been successful in increasing the proportion of less-cyclical specialty chemical and non-cyclical pharmaceutical products in its portfolio, parts of the chemicals and plastics activities are subject to significant demand cyclicality and raw material price sensitivity.

The current 'A-' rating assumes Solvay will continue to adhere to a conservative financial policy to balance these risks. Furthermore, the ratings are supported by Solvay's good sales diversification of Solvay's sales in terms of regions and end-markets. Solvay is also taking measures, such as cost-cutting and production reduction, in response to the challenging economic conditions.

Over the last three quarters Solvay's chemicals and plastics divisions experienced significant contraction in demand for some of its key products from sectors most severely affected by the current economic downturn, such as automotives and construction. Although the performance of the group's pharmaceuticals business helped to mitigate this weakness, it was not sufficient to prevent a decline in group sales and profitability.