Intanto Yara passa per S&P a creditwatch negative, rispetto al rating BBB che detiene per l'agenzia. Sebbene l'acquisto di terra dovrebbe essere finanziato in equity per il 50%, l'incremento del debito e la rischiosità esecutiva connessa all'integrazione delle attività di Terra nelle proprie, nonché l'accresciuta esposizione ad un segmento della produzione di fertilizzanti particolarmente volatile nei prezzi porta l'agenzia a valutare come possibile la riduzione del rating ai limiti dell'IG a meno che Yara non abbia un piano credibile per ricondurre la propria metrica finanziaria entro gli standard del rating attuale al più tardi ad inizio 2011, nel qual caso si valuterà la possibilità di un abbassamento del solo outlook.
Yara Ratings Placed On CreditWatch With Negative Implications Following Terra Acquisition Announcement
-- Norway-based fertilizer distributor and producer Yara International
has announced that it plans to acquire nitrogen producer Terra Industries.
-- Following the partially debt-financed acquisition, we believe Yara's
credit metrics could remain below the level that we consider commensurate with
an "Intermediate" financial risk profile.
-- We are placing the ratings on Yara on CreditWatch with negative
implications.
-- We expect to resolve the CreditWatch on the close of the acquisition.
Any downgrade is likely to be limited to one notch.
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 15, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that it placed the 'BBB' long-term and 'A-2' short-term corporate
credit ratings on Norway-based fertilizer distributor and producer Yara
International ASA on CreditWatch with negative implications.
Yara announced today that it plans to acquire U.S.-based nitrogen producer
Terra Industries Inc. (Terra; BB/Stable/--) for an estimated total
consideration of $4.7 billion.
"The additional debt burden of the transaction will, in our view, strain
Yara's already weakened financial risk profile, even though we anticipate that
the transaction will be over 50% equity financed," said Standard & Poor's
credit analyst Sophia Dedemadis.
Yara's reported interest bearing debt at year-end 2009 was Norwegian krone
(NOK) 17 billion. The total consideration for the acquisition is $4.7 billion,
including Terra's existing debt of bonds totaling $600 million due 2019. This
figure does not include cash on Terra's balance sheet at the time of close.
If completed, the acquisition should diversify Yara's global production
assets. However the company's exposure to the volatile nitrogen segment will
also increase. In 2010 we anticipate a significant improvement in nitrogen
fertilizer pricing and volumes from 2009 levels. However, the consequent
improvement in Yara's operating performance may not be sufficient to support
the current rating. For fiscal year-end 2009, Yara reported revenues of
NOK61.4 billion and operating cash flows of NOK11.9 billion, supported by
large working capital inflows of NOK14.8 billion, mostly from inventory. The
company's unadjusted funds from operations was negative, although it generated
reported free operating cash flow of approximately NOK5.8 billion.
More positively, Yara should benefit from Terra's position as a leading player
in the U.S. nitrogen market, with a large portion of domestic nitrogen
capacity and well-located nitrogen facilities. The acquisition would expand
Yara's access to the central U.S. and provide good logistics in the area.
Furthermore, Terra has historically generated good operating margins, which
are currently in the high 20% range.
Standard & Poor's aims to resolve the CreditWatch placement on completion of
the Terra acquisition which Yara expects to occur within the next four months.
"As part of the CreditWatch resolution, we will be meeting with management and
discussing, in detail, the group's financial policy, business strategy and
capital structure specifically in the context of the Terra acquisition and
Yara's strategy for reaching its growth target of 10% of the global market,"
said Ms. Dedemadis. "We will also review the operating performance, synergies,
and organic growth prospects of the proposed combined entity."
We could affirm the ratings if Yara were able to demonstrate a satisfactory
plan to achieve and sustain credit metrics commensurate with an "Intermediate"
financial risk profile by early to mid 2011--taking into account any potential
further acquisitions. Such an affirmation could, however, be accompanied by a
negative outlook considering the low financial headroom at the rating.
In contrast, we could lower the rating by one notch if Yara were unable to
demonstrate a clear path toward restoring its credit metrics and achieving its
growth targets in a measured fashion.