Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa

[Imark]

Cognis... sarebbe da prendere in esame se effettivamente finisse come in altri tempi andò con Ciba... ma se fossi al posto di BASF, io oggi Cognis la lascerei perdere, o la comprerei per il valore del debito al più, dato che la società da sola dubito potrebbe mai venirne fuori, recovery o non recovery...

Anche per questo, un giorno viene fuori che il board di BASF avrebbe già approvato un bid per Cognis, il giorno dopo che le equity firms proprietarie di Cognis avrebbero studiato ed approntato un'IPO, salvo non poterla fare perché non ci sono le condizioni di mercato (che, per inciso, continueranno a non esserci ancora per un bel pezzo, IMHO)...

Peraltro, la società non è aiutata dalla debolezza dell'Eur/Usd, che anzi "rema contro"...

Cognis Says Weaker Euro Hampered Improvement in Debt Position - BusinessWeek

Germany's Cognis Still Preparing Initial Public Offering - WSJ.com

PS: il mercato obbligazionario per ora ci credicchia, ma senza troppa convinzione per il lieto fine...

 

[lorenzo63]

Uno dei miei "indicatori"...

Per chiarezza: con le sostanze sottoindicate ci si puo' fabbricare per sintesi quasi tutto quello che di sintetico o meno avete in casa, addosso, nll' auto...etctc..ergo se scendono ecomia in crisi se salgono economia che va bene...

LONDON -European benzene and styrene values have come down by around $70/tonne (€58/tonne) this week on the back of weakening crude numbers and increasingly bearish sentiment in the market, sources said on Thursday.

“We did not expect to see styrene drop by so much this week,” said one styrene trader. “Demand from downstream derivatives is healthy, and we are seeing enquiries from consumers. However, they have been taking bets and waiting for the price to drop, which it has.”

Deals for May were seen earlier this week between $1,320-1,335/tonne FOB (free on board) Rotterdam, but by Thursday afternoon a trade for May delivery was seen at $1,250/tonne, with price ideas brought down by a continued decline in the crude price and a weakening sentiment seen in Asia.

Asian styrene prices have been steadily decreasing this week amid bearish sentiment fuelled by crude price losses as well as weaker benzene prices in the region.

“Monday and Tuesday were good days to sell in Europe,” said another source. “May might still hold some unseen demand, but June is looking more towards Asia.”

Similarly, European benzene values have taken a hit this week despite initial gains made on Tuesday in light of a short-lived rallying in crude prices and the euro. Deals for May were seen between $1,045-1,060/tonne CIF (cost, insurance, freight) ARA (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp), but by Thursday afternoon price ideas had dropped below the $1,000/tonne mark.

One trader commented the brief upturn in pricing early in the week was driven by some shortness for prompt cargo that had to be covered.

The trader added: “Now, it is panic mode. Both crude and the euro have been coming down for the last week, and there is a lot of negative sentiment in the market.”

“There are more sellers than buyers right now,” said one benzene supplier. Crude and the euro have been weakening, and the market seems to be looking at these bearish signals.”

 

[lorenzo63]

Price slide intensifies

The weakness in Asian markets is spreading with steep drops also being reported in olefin prices.

Ethylene prices dropped by $160-170/tonnes last week while propylene declined $90-110/tonne, writes my colleague Soo Hwee, ICIS pricing editor for olefins.

The poor market conditions were attributed to softness in crude oil and naphtha prices as well as lack of support from polyolefins that are also under pressure. Nervousness about Europe and the impact of credit tightening in China have also played a role.

Buyers have strategically moved to the sidelines in anticipation of further reduction in prices while cracker operators have started talking about operating rate cuts if economics continue to weaken.

What happens in the Chinese polymer market over the next few days will be crucial. As reported by the blog last week, stocks with major producers have climbed close to record levels. And export offers are still being heard.

An Indian trader said this morning that he has received offers from China for high-density polyethylene (hdPE) at $1200/tonne cfr India, $1230/tonne cfr India for linear-low density PE (lldPE) and $1430/tonne cfr India for low-density PE (ldPE).

The trader has not yet signed any deals but the offers have turned out to be useful for bargaining with his regular suppliers.

"They [traders] know they can always manipulate prices the moment something goes wrong. The events of 2008 has spoilt the market; producers could earlier take a firm stance but that does not work now," said a frustrated international producer.

The Indian polymer market is broadly following the direction set by China but price drops so far have not been as substantial.

"Arrivals [of imported cargoes] have been low and producers do not have much stocks," explained the trader.

But it could just be a matter of time before Indian prices catch up with those in China.

 

[lorenzo63]

In vista altre acquisizioni?

La discesa dei corsi spesso o talvolta incrementa le acquisizioni...

SOlvay, che ha una notevole liquidità(cessione ramo pharma) seconde questo articolo di WSJ potrebbe avere in animo di...


Time For Solvay To Act


It's no secret that Belgian chemicals maker Solvay SA, with €5.5 billion ($6.89 billion) in cash and equivalents following its pharmaceuticals divestment in February, will soon hit the M&A path.

The list of potential targets includes Clariant AG, Rhodia SA, Umicore and Symrise AG. The last is by far the best of the bunch for making Solvay less vulnerable to economic swings. But don't write off Croda International PLC, a sound, partly defensive bet with a cheaper price tag that would leave money for another venture.

Symrise is a chemicals maker selling flavors, fragrances and cosmetic ingredients whose core business has proved relatively immune to the economic downturn. First-quarter results comfortably beat consensus estimates, with revenue up by double digits to €391 million and a margin on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, of 21.3%.

While its product portfolio and profitability are an ideal complement to those of Solvay, the realattraction is in its exposure to markets outside the U.S. and Europe. Last year, 29% of Symrise's €1.4 billion of revenue was generated in the Asia-Pacific region and South America;44% of first-quarter sales came from all emerging markets.

Put a 20% premium on Symrise's current valuation, and the German group could be sold for €2.4 billion, or an implied multiple of just above 10 times trailing Ebitda, well below the multiple of 13 times trailing Ebitda of sector leader Givaudan SA.

Croda, meanwhile, could bring Solvay a specialty chemicals business targeting the consumer-care and industrial-specialties markets, including herbicides and insecticides, and, like Symrise, some exposure to the cosmetics industry.

Croda has a market capitalization of around £1.3 billion (about $1.9 billion), making it a smaller and perhaps more easily digestible target. But it is very much a Europe-focused player. For Solvay to broaden its geographical reach, it could use the cash left over from a Croda acquisition for a direct move into Asia, such as tying up with a Japanese chemicals maker.

 

[Imark]

Intanto l'outlook compartimentale si stabilizza, almeno secondo Moody's, per la chimica EMEA e USA...

L'agenzia stima probabile un'accellerazione della domanda e del restocking nei 12-18 mesi. La crescita degli utili nel comparto, sempre per Moody's passa infatti attraverso la risalita dei volumi, che dovrebbe rafforzare il pricing e quindi aiutare nella salvaguardia dei margini.

L'export verso l'Asia delle "materie prime" della chimica (l'output della chimica "di base" e di parte di quella delle specialità) risentirà dei nuovi insediamenti produttivi che crescentemente vengono completati in quell'area e nel ME.

Moody's: North American and EMEA Chemicals Stable as Industrial Demand Strengthens

New York, May 25, 2010 -- The stable outlook for the North American and European chemical industry in the near-term reflects expectations of continued broad-based growth in most market sectors and geographies, said Moody's Investors Service in a new report.

"We believe demand growth and restocking will accelerate over the next 12-18 months," said James Wilkins, a Vice President-Senior Analyst at Moody's. "As the economy continues to improve, earnings will improve as volumes rebound and companies are able to raise prices for their products to maintain their margins. In addition, corporate balance sheets are stronger and access to liquidity is no longer a primary concern."

While exports to Latin America remain strong, exports of commodity chemicals to Asia are expected to be more volatile due to new capacity in Asia and the Middle East. The chemical industry is benefiting from economic growth in Latin America, but it also depends on the continued strength of the Asian economy, said Moody's.

According to the report, higher M&A activity is expected to continue, supported by elevated cash balances at many chemical companies and substantial improvements in investment-grade and high-yield credit markets.

 

[lorenzo63]

Aggiornamento 28 maggio 2010

Un sentito ringraziamento ad ALOBAR ed a IMARK...

Il file per chi ne volesse la disponibilità...


Vedi l'allegato Chemical_Bonds_19052010.xls

 

[lorenzo63]

Syngenta

Acquisizioni:

URICH (Dow Jones)--Swiss agribusiness company Syngenta AG (SYT) said Thursday it acquired Maribo Seed sugar beet business from Nordic Sugar.

MAIN FACTS:

- Syngenta announced today the signing of an agreement to acquire the Maribo Seed sugar beet business from Nordic Sugar, a subsidiary of Nordzucker AG, for a consideration of 43 million ($52.8 million) plus 5 million ($6.1 million) contingent payments on a cash and debt free basis.

- The transaction includes the seed production and sales activities of Maribo Seed as well as the Maribo brand name.

- In 2009 sales of the acquired activities were around 35 million ($49 million).

- "This acquisition consolidates our position in European sugar beet," said Davor Pisk, Chief Operating Officer Syngenta Seeds. "Maribo Seed has incorporated Syngenta genetics in its range since 1992. It is a strong and well-established brand in key markets."

 

[lorenzo63]

China’s resin firms ready for Middle East imports

The rapid rise in Middle Eastern petrochemical capacity in the next five years will not have as great an effect on Asian resin markets as some analysts have predicted, according to one chemical industry financial analyst.

The sizable increases in Middle Eastern capacity and the region’s feedstock cost advantages have been predicted to swamp Asian markets. But new developments such as greater industrialisation in the Middle East and rising construction costs will mitigate some of that, according to Sandeep Talwani, managing director of chemicals, oil and gas at the global banking unit of London-based HSBC bank.

“Even if there is a huge rise in Middle Eastern capacity over the next five or six years, Asian economies will not be affected as much as people think,” said Talwani, in an address to the 2010 China Plastics Industry Conference, held this week in Hangzhou.

Middle Eastern producers will be adding substantial capacity, and much of that will be targeted at Asia because that is where growth is expected. But Talwani said several factors will mitigate the impact of Middle Eastern resin there.

First, he said more of the new Middle Eastern capacity will be used locally, as countries in the region pursue industrialisation to move further downstream the petrochemicals chain.

“There is a vast industrialisation policy in place, led by Saudi Arabia,” Talwani said.

Middle Eastern petrochemical firms are also increasingly interested in moving away from commodity materials and into higher value plastics, such as Sabic’s 2007 acquisition of GE Plastics, he said.

Some of the Middle Eastern petrochemical firms also are finding their construction and financing costs are rising, and that is changing some of the economics of their projects and causing delays as companies are forced to refinance, he said.

As a result, he predicts that when the dust settles, Chinese resin makers will remain competitive in their domestic markets, when shipping costs and possible Chinese subsidies are factored in.

Other regions may not fare so well, though. He predicts that North American petrochemical makers could stand to lose significantly in Asia from the new Middle Eastern capacity, he said.

Petrochemical firms in the US Gulf Coast and in northwest Canada are currently major exporters to Asia, and they have been able to pick up their exports as Asian demand rose rapidly after the financial crisis, he said.

North American firms that can use natural gas as a feedstock are enjoying a sizable cost advantage now because new US technology for horizontal drilling — called fracking — is significantly increasing the amount of natural gas available and lowering the cost, Talwani said.

But that cost advantage is expected to narrow in 2011 and those exports are expected to decline as Asia becomes more self-sufficient in petrochemical capacity, he said.

Northeast Asian producers in Japan and South Korea could also lose out from the new Middle Eastern capacity, he said.

 

[Imark]

Altra tornata di news che accrediterebbero come molto probabile un deal fra le equity firms che controllano Cognis e BASF in merito alla cessione della prima alla seconda.

Le indiscrezioni vorrebbero il raggiungimento di un preliminary agreement fra le due società..

Il mercato scommette per ora con molta moderazione in un bis dell'operazione Ciba, pure acquistata da BASF in una fase di turbolenza sui mercati...

BASF Said to Reach Accord to Buy Germany’s Cognis (Update1) - BusinessWeek

BASF near agreeing takeover of Cognis: report | Reuters

 

[lorenzo63]

Moody's 31 Maggio 2010

Moody's: Chemical Industry in 'Sustained Rebound'


Moody's Investors Service affirmed its stable outlook for the chemical industry in the Americas and Europe this week, noting that the industry is "in a sustained rebound in Asia, Europe, and the Americas." Demand recovery, low feedstock prices, and strong balance sheets continue to benefit the industry. As such, credit conditions are unlikely to change over the next 12 to 18 months, Moody's says.

While demand recovery has been global, demand has reached pre-crisis levels in Asia, while in the U.S. and Europe it "remains well below pre-crisis levels," Moody's notes. While the euro crisis in southern Europe is a concern, growth in northern Europe is expected to remain solid and outweigh any issues in the south. Moody's forecasts industrial production to grow 4.3% and 2.3% in the U.S. and the Euro zone, respectively, this year. In 2011, industrial production growth is forecast to fall slightly in the U.S. to 4.1%, while rising considerably in the Euro zone, to 3.4%.

M&A activity is expected to rise this year, as credit markets remain open, especially for investment grade-debt, and some companies are benefiting from strong liquidity positions. This sentiment was echoed, with some reservations, by Mario Toukan, director/chemicals M&A at KeyBanc Capital Markets at CW's CFO Conference in New York earlier this week. "Corporate hibernation" is coming to an end, Toukan says. Deal recovery, which began in late 2009, is continuing, and will grow to include larger transactions in the second half of this year, Toukan adds. Many companies have large cash balances and will be looking to put that cash to work, he adds.



Toukan, however, sounded some cautionary notes. While the debt markets have been functioning fairly well, most activity has been in refinancings, as companies try to avoid the "maturity cliff," when $400 billion in corporate debt is expected to mature from 2012 to 2014. Deal size has fallen, as well, and deals are taking longer to complete, a trend Toukan expects to continue. "Companies are more diligent," he says. Environmental liability, for example, is examined more thoroughly than it was before the crisis. While the market will recover this year, 2011 "is poised to be the real M&A rebound year," Toukan says.

Moody's, too, highlighted some factors that may dampen recovery. The housing and automotive markets are not expected to reach pre-crisis levels in the next 12 to 18 months. Debt markets, while open, have been "temperamental" for high-yield issuers, who have been effected by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, Moody's says. That crisis, in addition to the end of government stimulus measures, could pose a threat to recovery. Nevertheless, Moody's "continues to believe there will not be a double-dip" recession.


In effetti M&A (vedi Solvay: è tempo di agire e Basf Cognis) sembrano uno dei temi di adesso..adesso vediamo a seguire il settore gas tecnici normalmente piuttosto attivo in queste fasi..