Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa

[maxinblack]

62,5 - 64 last 62,5 con quantità esposte e scambi su Francoforte; 63,5 - 65 senza quantità e senza scambi su Stoccarda...

Caro mark me ne sono liberato a 62.75. mi sembra che ci avviciniamo alle tue quotazioni essendo io sul retail, scambi in diminuzione, confermato dall'operatore, non voglio rischiare un miracolo alla rescap.

Sono ovviamente in perdita PMC 74 ma c'e' il rateo ad addolcire la pillola,
e soprattutto un pensiero in meno.

Ma soprattutto mi hanno convinto le scarse prospettive di questa azienda, per un cassettista come me, non andava assolutamente bene.

Conto di fare meglio in futuro con il vostro aiuto (il tuo in particolare) meno male si chiude questo anno orribile.

Ci vediamo a gennaio per la "bonifica" portafoglio.

un abbraccio e un saluto a tutti

 

[Imark]

Caro mark me ne sono liberato a 62.75. mi sembra che ci avviciniamo alle tue quotazioni essendo io sul retail, scambi in diminuzione, confermato dall'operatore, non voglio rischiare un miracolo alla rescap.

Sono ovviamente in perdita PMC 74 ma c'e' il rateo ad addolcire la pillola,
e soprattutto un pensiero in meno.

Ma soprattutto mi hanno convinto le scarse prospettive di questa azienda, per un cassettista come me, non andava assolutamente bene.

Conto di fare meglio in futuro con il vostro aiuto (il tuo in particolare) meno male si chiude questo anno orribile.

Ci vediamo a gennaio per la "bonifica" portafoglio.

un abbraccio e un saluto a tutti

Ciao Max, i prezzi più o meno sono lì...

 

[lorenzo63]

Aggiornamento...

Posto solo il file.. poco tempo!

Vedi l'allegato Chemical Bonds 3.xls

 

[Imark]

E altro report compartimentale di Fitch, stavolta sulla chimica... posto quello europeo, che riguarda la gran parte degli emittenti a monitor, ma è molto interessante anche questo commento, particolarmente "denso" nel descrivere la situazione della chimica in ambito globale, attesa nel 2010 in ripresa in Asia ed in America latina, in crescita negli USA fra low e mid single digit in termini di fatturato, in ripresa ancora più modesta in Europa.

In USA ci vorranno fra i due ed i tre anni per tornare ai llivelli pre-crisi, in Europa qualcosa di più.

Numerosi i fattori di criticità che permangono per il comparto: il rischio di una pressione sui prezzi proveniente da una risalita delle commodities, specie in quei sottocomparti in cui la sovracapacità produttiva renderà difficile far passare incrementi di prezzi alla clientela; la debolezza del dollaro; il graduale ridursi delle manovre di stimolo economico.

A livello subcompartimentale, soffrirà particolarmente la petrolchimica, segmento in cui la debolezza ciclica verrà accentuata dalla nuova capacità produttiva in Medio Oriente come anche la chimica delle specialità a basso livello di innovazione, che vedrà accentuarsi pressione sui prezzi e debolezza dei margini; diversamente, la chimica delle specialità ad elevato livello di innovazione vedrà un accentuarsi dei costi di R&D sostenuti per conservare il vantaggio competitivo delle produzioni.

Nel report allegato, utili all'inquadramento di massima dei singoli emittenti ancora una volta le tabelle riportate nelle pagine in fondo...

Fitch: Gradual Recovery Will Continue for Global Chemicals Industry in 2010

16 Dec 2009 10:55 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-New York-16 December 2009:

Fitch Ratings expects a gradual recovery to continue for the global chemicals industry as global chemicals markets stabilized in the first half of 2009 and continue to rebound from record lows.

In Fitch's North American & EMEA chemicals outlook reports, the company says the recovery in demand for chemical products will remain fragile next year with significant regional disparities in the growth trends reflecting varying economic expansion forecasts.

Asia (China and India) and, to a lesser extent, South America (Brazil) are expected to continue driving global demand while anemic economic recovery will constrain prospects in the Western European and North American markets. 'The EMEA chemicals industry is expected to be marked by a modest pace of expansion from the record low base of 2009,' said Myriam Affri, Director at Fitch.

'The economic downturn really took its toll on the credit profile of the European chemicals industry; however, headroom is likely to widen in 2010, particularly for issuers at the higher end of the rating spectrum where negative rating actions had reflected aggressive financial profiles and policies at the peak of the cycle.'

Fitch expects that growth rates for the North American chemicals industry will be capped in the low- to mid-single digits in 2010.

At this rate, the industry will likely need two to three years before North American chemicals product output will match pre-crisis levels again. In the U.S., the default rate for chemicals reached an all-time high with 17.7% year-to-date. At the end of the third quarter of 2009, leverage and coverage ratios with trailing 12-months calculations reached a trough for most players, as the calculation now includes four quarters of recession impacts.

'We anticipate that it will take several quarters before the credit profiles of most North American chemicals will return to more normalized, mid-cycle levels given the expected slow and gradual nature of the recovery,' said Tom Dohrmann, Director at Fitch.

Fitch says other factors clouding the near-term sector outlook include renewed inflationary cost pressures, particularly at levels of the value chain where structural overcapacities persist and where producers' pricing power is strongly dictated by supply-demand balance. The phasing out of stimulus packages and structural overcapacity at various levels of the value chain could threaten demand momentum. For European players, the weakening U.S. dollar could also pose a challenge.

The path to recovery will be particularly challenging in commodity chemicals segments, where players are not only exposed to the cyclicality along major basic chemical and plastic value chains, but also struggle with new capacity coming online in the Middle East.

The cost advantage afforded by the substantially cheaper feedstock supply means that the new production facilities can operate profitably at prices where Western European and North American capacity becomes uncompetitive. While the permanent shutdown of inefficient high-cost capacity in Europe and North America during the downturn partly offset the impact of the new supply on global balance, the net effect is expected to outpace demand growth in the near to medium term.

Specialty chemicals products without much differentiation will face stiff competition and will become commoditized much faster than before. As a result, specialty companies with product portfolios geared toward commoditized specialty products will change their strategy to purely low-cost manufacturing. In contrast, specialty chemicals with high value-adding, innovative product portfolios will increasingly focus on research and development in order to maintain the cutting edge nature of their products.

'North American Chemicals Industry: Outlook 2010' is now available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The report, 'EMEA Chemicals: 2010 Outlook Negative but Stabilising' will be available on Fitch's website on Thursday, December 17th.

 

[lorenzo63]

Chemical Industry Outlook Negative as Demand Remains Weak

E' un pochetto datato, ma riflette molto bene la situaione attuale ed in divenire..

24/11/2009


The outlook for the chemical industry globally continues to be negative, Moody's Investors Service said in a six-month update on the industry. The negative outlook largely reflects Moody's expectations for limited volume growth, excess industry capacity and concern that raw material prices may increase prior to meaningful increases in demand, threatening performance.
"Although there has been a rebound in the last two quarters, producers continue to see limited future chemical demand, and we expect pressure on fourth-quarter 2009 results as downstream industries minimise their inventories towards year-end," said James Wilkins, Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst. "This will mute the improvement from the distressed demand levels of 2008."
Commodity prices, which were low in late 2008 to the benefit of the chemical companies, have partially rebounded. Moody's says strong demand growth in Asia could put more pressure on global commodity prices before demand in the U.S. and Europe fully recovers, keeping margins tight in 2010.
Low capacity utilisation rates and weak selling prices could also squeeze producers' margins and cash flows over the near term, Moody's said.
Rebounding some, chemical production should track forecasted growth in industrial production in Europe and the U.S. in 2010.
Industrial production, a key to chemical demand, must recover for the chemical industry to recover, Moody's said.
"Any unanticipated event that stalls the recovery in industrial production will likely have a significant impact on most chemical companies," Wilkins said. "Also, the weak demand and modest recovery will not give chemical companies much opportunity to pass through raw-material cost increases."

 

[lorenzo63]

BASF Shuts Two Crackers After Fires Break Out

BASF has shut down one of its main olefins complexes at Ludwigshafen, Germany, following a fire on the morning of December 23. This is the second BASF cracker to be shut down by a blaze over the course of one week, and leaves the company with only one operational cracker in Europe.

The Ludwigshafen cracker has the capacity to produce about 220,000 m.t./year of ethylene and 140,000 m.t./year of propylene. The blaze did not affect the second cracker at the site and downstream supply has not been disrupted, sources say. No injuries were reported. Buyers were put on allocation but not force majeure, market sources say.

Meanwhile, the company’s Antwerp, Belgium cracker suffered a fire on December 20 and was subsequently shut down. The plant, which has the capacity to produce 1 million m.t./year of ethylene and 650,000 m.t./year of propylene, is expected to restart some time in the next few weeks, sources say.

Separately, an outage at one of Ineos’ crackers at Cologne, Germany forced the company to declare force majeure on ethylene and propylene on December 9. The affected cracker, which is the smaller two crackers at the site, has the capacity to produce about 600,000 m.t./year of ethylene. The unit remains offline, sources say.

BASF also operates a 2-billion m.t./year ethylene cracker at Port Arthur, TX and a 600,000-m.t./year ethylene cracker at Nanjing, China.

 

[lorenzo63]

Evonik Confirms Plans to Split off Its Energy and Real Estate Businesses

Evonik Industries has confirmed German press reports that the company plans to split off its energy and real estate businesses, and focus on chemicals. "As part of its new strategic focus," Evonik will develop "from a conglomerate to a specialty chemicals company," Evonik says. The energy and real estate businesses will be managed as independent subsidiaries.
Evonik is seeking one or several partners to invest in its energy business, possibly as equity shareholders, and will merge its real estate business with apartment-management company THS (Gelsenkirchen, Germany), a 50-50 joint venture between Evonik and trade union IG BCE (Hanover, Germany). Evonik says it is considering plans for an initial public offering (IPO) for the merged real estate business.
Chemicals accounted for almost 75% of Evonik's €9.6-billion sales in the first nine months of 2009, and 77% of the group's €1.5-billion Ebitda. Energy accounted for 21% of group sales in the first nine months and real estate accounted for almost 3% of sales.
RAG Foundation (Essen, Germany) owns 75% of Evonik and private equity firm CVC Capital Partners holds the rest. RAG Foundation earlier planned an IPO for the whole of Evonik but shelved those plans with the onset of the economic crisis in 2008. Evonik chairman Klaus Engel told CW in late 2008 that the company's owners planned to revive the IPO plan by 2013

 

[lorenzo63]

Solvay Launches Takeover Offer for the Rest of Vinythai

28 dic 2009

Solvay prosegue nella direzione indicata durante la vendita della sezione pharma, ovvero indirizzarsi maggiormente nel core business ovvero le mat plastiche.
Nel caso preciso trattasi di pvc ergo consumi di tutti i generi: carte di credito, edilizia mobili etc.etc.
Tra l' altro vi è pure un vantaggio non da poco: il pvc è la materia plastica meno sensibile agli aumenti del petrolio proprio per il tipo di sintesi...


Solvay has launched a tender offer to acquire the nearly 50% it does not own in chlor-alkali and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) company Vinythai (Bangkok). The baht6.15/share offer values the outstanding shares at baht3.64 billion ($110 million). Solvay says its participation in Vinythai “recently crossed the threshold of 50%,” triggering the tender offer. The offer period is due to run from December 16, 2009 until January 21, 2010.
Vinythai shares closed at baht6.10/share the day before the offer was announced. Solvay may have pitched its offer only slightly above the market price of Vinythai’s shares because Solvay has not made a strategic decision to become majority owner of Vinythai, sources say. The company most likely made the offer for “technical” reasons because its Vinythai stake had passed 50%, a Thai petrochemical industry source tells CW. Solvay says it has no intention to increase the price or extend the term of the offer.
Solvay nevertheless says the offer is in line with its strategy to expand in emerging markets, and that it will enable the company to support the development of Vinythai’s businesses, including a recently announced project to produce epichlorohydrin (ECH) from glycerine obtained as a byproduct of biofuels production (CW, Sept. 28/Oct. 5, p. 23). The project will use Solvay’s novel Epicerol technology. Solvay originally announced the ECH project and transferred it earlier this year to Vinythai.
PTT Chemical (Bangkok) is the second-biggest shareholder in Vinythai with a 24.98% stake, and the third-biggest shareholder is Charoen Pokphand Group (Bangkok) with 11.87%. The rest of Vinythai’s shares are listed on the Bangkok stock exchange.
Vinythai makes chlorine, caustic soda, and PVC at Map Ta Phut, Thailand. The company will increase chlorine capacity to provide feedstock for the planned ECH unit. Vinythai generated 2008 sales of baht13.3 billion. It is the second-biggest producer of PVC in Thailand after Thai Plastic and Chemicals, a Siam Cement subsidiary

 

[lorenzo63]

Linde Builds Gases Plant, Reconfirms Participation in Delayed Petchem Projects in Rus

Linde Builds Gases Plant, Reconfirms Participation in Delayed Petchem Projects in Russia


22-12-2009


Nel frattempo i Tedeschi proseguono con il rafforzamento dei legami commerciali con la Russia...

Linde has announced plans to build and operate an air separation plant in Russia, and reconfirmed its participation as an engineering contractor in two petrochemicals and plastics projects in the country. The combined value of the contracts is more than €530 million, Linde says.
Linde has signed an agreement to supply industrial gases to the Vorsino, Russia steel mill of Kaluga Research and Production Electrometallurgical Plant (KNPEMZ). Linde will invest €37 million to build an onsite air separation unit with capacity for 9,000 cu meters/hour of gaseous oxygen. It is expected to start supplying gaseous oxygen, nitrogen, and argon to the Vorsino steel mill by mid-2011. The air separation unit will have additional capacities for liquefied gases to supply the merchant market in central Russia. KNPEMZ is a subsidiary of Novolipetsk Steel (Lipetsk, Russia).
Linde, meanwhile, has confirmed the earlier award of a contract to build a 500,000-m.t./year polypropylene (PP) plant at Tobolsk, Russia for Tobolsk-Polymer, a Sibur (Moscow) subsidiary. The PP plant will be integrated with a propane dehydrogenation unit. Linde says it has started engineering work and plans to deliver large parts of the PP plant to Tobolsk in 2010-11, and that the plant is due onstream in mid-2012. The value of LInde's contract is €450 million, the company says. Sibur originally awarded the contract to LInde in 2008, but it since delayed the project by almost two years. Sibur also recently reconfirmed the award of the engineering contract for the Tobolsk propane dehydro unit to Maire Tecnimont.
Separately, Linde will be "planning and overseeing" construction of a gas separation plant and 420,000-m.t./year ethane cracker at Novyi Urengoy, Russia for Novyi Urengoi Gas and Chemical Complex, a Gazprom (Moscow) subsidiary. Construction is under way and the project is worth about €47 million to Linde, the company says. Gazprom ordered the cracker from Linde in the 1990s but never built it, and the equipment was stored during the intervening period at the Novyi Urengoi site. The cracker will supply ethylene to a low-density polyethylene unit that Maire Tecnimont is expanding under a contract signed earlier this year

 

[lorenzo63]

Domani postero' il monitor chimica rivisto dal Alobar e da Mark ai quali vanno i miei + sentiti ringraziamenti.