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[Jolly]

"Rassegna stampa"


McLaren Report - US Share Market & Australian Share Market Reports
McLaren Report - US Share Market & Australian Share Market Reports - Bill McLaren
October 09 2009 CNBC squawkbox Europe
October 09 2009 CNBC squawkbox Europe

By Bill McLaren
Published on 10/9/2009


LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX DAILY CHART

Two weeks ago I indicated the selloff would stop around 1027 and it stopped at 1019. We didn’t believe there would be a top until after the 6th of October. The index moved down into the 90 cycle indicating a rally but not another cycle up. Now our job is to look for some evidence this is now in a topping process. Please understand I am not looking for a big reversal in trend but a normal counter trend to consolidate the move up since March and possibly only the move since July. This could also set in with a large sideways pattern to consolidate. Since almost all high points and tops come from breaking to new highs and failing. If this rally can carry to a new high the trend will be at risk. Or if we can confirm a distribution of some sort prior to the new high a correction should start.
Today’s high was against the previous lower high and could set up a lower double top distribution pattern but the only evidence so far is the gap up and stopping at the price level of that high. One down day will not confirm that pattern there will need to be “follow through.” Volume is not bullish and the index overbalanced or exceeded the largest move down since the July low and that can also be a warning the trend may have completed. Since most world stock indexes gapped up yesterday on the fourth day up it did represent some sort of exhaustion but it is too early for me to conclude that has exhausted this move up and could just start a few days of consolidation. But if the index moves to a new high, that may be all to this rally. Also, there are one and two year cycles expiring this weekend and can be significant resistance. I believe a top is likely the next 5 trading days. The US Dollar Index may be the clue. But remember this trend does not top until 2010. A decline from here should be “normal” at 1/3 to 3/8 of the advance.

 

[Jolly]

NOW LET’S LOOK AT THE US DOLLAR INDEX

A few months back I indicated the dollar would be important to stocks and this has reached another critical point on the daily chart. A weak US Dollar is bullish for US Stocks. The dollar just went to a new low and since almost all low points and rallies or changes in trend from down to up come from new lows. This new low showed be watched. The index showed a lower double top while trending down-bearish. It started down without being able to hit the trendline-bearish. It has only managed an inside day while in the move down. So this is either the start of a capitulation (panic) trend down or there is a little false break for low and a rally and possible a fast rally. And the US stock indexes will react accordingly. Moving above the lows at 76.3 will indicate the fast move down is in doubt and short term negative for US stocks.
I don’t know how the dollar will be resolved here. With the entire world bearish towards the dollar “follow through” to the downside is very important to confirm the breakdown. This trend has been struggling down since early June and this could be resolved in either direction but should be a fast move which ever the direction.

 

[Jolly]

"All Major Bull Rallies Begin With A Follow-Through Day"
In realtà oggi parrebbe proprio un classico "follow through day", ma preferisco restarne fuori.
Ecco due grafici, quasi speculari, sul settimanale:

 

[Jolly]

Il Dow festeggia i 10.000, vedremo se li confermerà a chiusura di settimana.

Grafico interessante, preso da qui:
Safe Haven | Are Institutional Investors Selling or Buying?

 

[Jolly]

Lettura per il week-end:

BEING STREET SMART
by Sy Harding

WILL Q3 EARNINGS SUPPORT THE RALLY? October 16, 2009.​

The rally off the March low has been remarkable. The market plunged too far to its March low, on fears about the economy that had not been seen since the Great Depression. So a substantial rally off that low was to be expected.
Even so the rally has been unusual. A number of long-time successful money-managers have been warning since May and June that the rally was getting ahead of reality, factoring into stock prices a faster and larger economic recovery than will be experienced. Their evidence included that consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, cannot increase enough to make a difference for some time to come, citing consumer debt levels, high unemployment, increasing loan defaults and home foreclosures, etc., and that the banking industry still has problems ahead from rising home foreclosures and defaulting commercial loans.
Global hedge fund manager George Soros says “International economies will have some limited growth but the U.S. economy is going to be a drag on that global growth.” In April he said U.S. banks are “basically insolvent”, and apparently has not changed his mind, referring in remarks this week to the “bankrupt U.S. banking system”.
The Federal Reserve is no better than lukewarm on its hopes for economic recovery, expecting to have to keep interest rates low well into next year. Meanwhile, the Administration and Treasury Department are so concerned about the sustainability of the recovery that they are reportedly preparing yet another stimulus package.
However, there is nothing lukewarm about the confidence in the economic recovery being demonstrated in the market, its rally still barreling along at a blistering pace.
In June, in apparent agreement that the rally had gotten ahead of reality, the market began to roll over into a correction, and was down four straight weeks.
But the decline reversed on a dime in mid-July when 2nd quarter financial reports began coming in. The upside reversal actually began when respected bank analyst Meredith Whitney upgraded Goldman Sachs from neutral to buy the day before the bank issued its report. That started the ball rolling.
Then, although most companies, including most of the major banks, reported continuing revenue and earnings declines, they were touted as positive signs of economic recovery if the declines were not as bad as Wall Street expected.
That assessment (that earnings were positive because they were coming in “better than expectations”) gave the rally substantial new legs, even as the warnings of a slow recovery, perhaps even an economic relapse, began to be substantiated when economic reports began to turn sour again. Home sales, and retail sales declined again after several months of improvement in the summer. Job losses rose again after several months of “less worse” job losses. And consumer confidence began declining again.
But the market remained focused on earnings and hopes for earnings. After the 2nd quarter earnings reporting period ended, the market began to anticipate the improvement in earnings Wall Street promised would show up in 3rd quarter reports. Wall Street was even optimistic enough to say it would no longer be enough for sales and earnings to be “less worse”, or for earnings improvements to be due to cost-cutting and lay-offs. If the positive economic outlook was to be sustained, rising revenues would have to show up in 3rd quarter reports as the reason for improved earnings.
The third quarter earnings reporting period has begun, and so far, unlike the beginning of the 2nd quarter earnings reports, it’s been a mixed picture.
Bank analyst Meredith Whitney even reversed her outlook for the banking sector, moving Goldman Sachs back down to neutral from the buy upgrade that halted the July correction three months ago.
The market began this reporting period by rallying strongly in response to Alcoa’s report that its earnings were 71% below the 3rd quarter of last year, but that at least it had a small profit.
It also surged up in a big rally on Wednesday in reaction to Intel’s report that its sales and earnings declined again (but beat Wall Street’s estimates).
However, the market did not take kindly to Thursday and Friday’s reports from CitiGroup, J.P. Morgan, Bank of America (a $2.2 billion loss), nor from the likes of economic bellwethers General Electric (a 44% decline in earnings), IBM (lower sales), or chip-maker Advanced MicroDevices (another loss), or Halliburton ( a 61% earnings decline), even though most beat Wall Street’s estimates.
Those latter reactions could be signs the market may not be as willing to take “less worse” as a sign of economic recovery this time around. If so, that raises questions about where the market will get its support to extend the rally still further, particularly given its unusual longevity already, and the seemingly overbought condition created by that lack of a normal correction.
It’s still early in the earnings reporting period, and the market’s response to earnings reports the last couple of days may have been a temporary aberration.
But it may also be a warning that in its current over-extended condition the market is susceptible to a downturn if subjected to less than stellar earnings reports this time around.


Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp, publishers of the financial website StreetSmartReport.com; the Street Smart www.longandshortstockadvisor.com; and a free daily market blog at www.SyHardingblog.com.

 

[Jolly]

Divergenze......

 

[sbaopao]

Divergenze......

se ti posso essre utile... con il ciclo

 

[gipa69]

ottimo lavoro jolly

 

[Jolly]

se ti posso essre utile... con il ciclo

Grazie per il contributo!

 

[Jolly]

ottimo lavoro jolly

Maestro......