ETC Natural Gas (18 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione NEO_99
- Data di Inizio
kleinklepura
Forumer storico
forse ,alcuni produtori e speculatori iniziano a vendere a questi prezzi .............ma e' presto per azzardare ipotesi.
maxgas
SonLoss
non c'e' problema,la bestia la conosco e anche se non ho chiuso non sono preoccupato.facevo +6 a fine giornata, vediamo se almeno mi lasciano il caffe'.
NEO_99
Forumer storico
tra venerdi ed oggi dovevano chiudere le posizioni ...e le mani forti sapevano come far partire lo shortsqueeze, far chiudere le posizioni al prezzo piu' caro possibile...una volta terminato..si sgonfia
kleinklepura
Forumer storico
calcoli alla mano ,considerando il roll,tecnicamente una chiusura sotto 4,40 rimetterebbe in gioco lo short.............
kleinklepura
Forumer storico
il 31 scatta la chiusura mensile ,sino ad allora puo'accadere di tutto ..............io attendo quella data per emettere un parere piu' significativo.
carletto84
Forumer storico
ciao klein... sembra non esserci logica,lo fanno salire fino a 4,54 e poi giù di botto! piano piano si stò sgonfiando!
carletto84
Forumer storico
Mar 28, 2011
Substantially More Capital is Short or Has Sold Natural Gas Producers
By: Karl W Miller
Published: Mar 28, 2011
Bottom line as always is the number do not lie. Domestic natural gas producers are facing a future where they simply can't cover their capital costs, and the industry debt ratios are not sustainable.
There will be no salvation in natural gas demand, which is driven by electricity generation, as the U.S. has hundreds of new natural gas plants sitting idle or underutilized that were built from 1997-2005, due to lack of demand and poor economics. We have evaluated, modeled, bid to purchase or restructured a majority of these idle natural gas plants over the past ten (10) years. Simply put, many of the natural gas fueled electricity generation plants are under-water and can't pay for their fixed and variable cost to run. We won't be building any more in masse anytime soon. Only a select few.
Then we have the domestic natural gas producers who are running rough-shot on hydraulic fracking as if there is some holy grail that will be handed to the industry overnight and save them.
There is no holy grail, the U.S. demand is stagnant, the U.S. does not export LNG and currently has four (4) LNG processing facilities which are substantially "underutilized".
Then there are the mounting and very serious environmental liabilities piling up on the natural gas "fracking" industry, which we have previously opined will be controlled by the EPA, as the recent ruling against Range Resources has demonstrated.
While we like Natural Gas, it is a stagnant industry in the U.S. Domestic Market and we expect that the massively over-levered drillers like Chesapeake Energy and others to substantially underperform the market and are highly over-valued due to excessive speculation, not demand or real cash flow generation. Flipping real estate always ends in tears, as the U.S. Mortgage crisis has demonstrated.
The U.S. domestic natural gas industry is due for a massive correction downwards to reflect the true market price of gas of $4/mmbtu weighted average and lack of ability to generate any premium pricing.
In essence Natural Gas has "no pricing power" which dictates that capital invested will underperform the broader market and is dead capital.
Substantially More Capital is Short or Has Sold Natural Gas Producers
By: Karl W Miller
Published: Mar 28, 2011
Bottom line as always is the number do not lie. Domestic natural gas producers are facing a future where they simply can't cover their capital costs, and the industry debt ratios are not sustainable.
There will be no salvation in natural gas demand, which is driven by electricity generation, as the U.S. has hundreds of new natural gas plants sitting idle or underutilized that were built from 1997-2005, due to lack of demand and poor economics. We have evaluated, modeled, bid to purchase or restructured a majority of these idle natural gas plants over the past ten (10) years. Simply put, many of the natural gas fueled electricity generation plants are under-water and can't pay for their fixed and variable cost to run. We won't be building any more in masse anytime soon. Only a select few.
Then we have the domestic natural gas producers who are running rough-shot on hydraulic fracking as if there is some holy grail that will be handed to the industry overnight and save them.
There is no holy grail, the U.S. demand is stagnant, the U.S. does not export LNG and currently has four (4) LNG processing facilities which are substantially "underutilized".
Then there are the mounting and very serious environmental liabilities piling up on the natural gas "fracking" industry, which we have previously opined will be controlled by the EPA, as the recent ruling against Range Resources has demonstrated.
While we like Natural Gas, it is a stagnant industry in the U.S. Domestic Market and we expect that the massively over-levered drillers like Chesapeake Energy and others to substantially underperform the market and are highly over-valued due to excessive speculation, not demand or real cash flow generation. Flipping real estate always ends in tears, as the U.S. Mortgage crisis has demonstrated.
The U.S. domestic natural gas industry is due for a massive correction downwards to reflect the true market price of gas of $4/mmbtu weighted average and lack of ability to generate any premium pricing.
In essence Natural Gas has "no pricing power" which dictates that capital invested will underperform the broader market and is dead capital.
carletto84
Forumer storico
klein hai mantenuto la tua posizione short o l'hai chiusa con un piccolo loss?
kleinklepura
Forumer storico
rompesse determinati livelli ,soprattutto area 4,21 ,sarebbe cosi' ....................con test finale a 4,05(200), cedesse la 200 prossimo test a 3,85 ,non credo 3,93 regga..............al contrario chiusura sopra 4,45,20 riproporrebbe nuovi tentativi d'allungo.