maxgas
SonLoss
tra un po' parte per i $4,per i primi di giugno ci arriva...
ETC Natural Gas
- Creatore Discussione NEO_99
- Data di Inizio
Unqualified
Gas maledetto!Pagherai!
Tornato da chemio speravo in datri migliori. Il gas mi uccide!
NEO_99
Forumer storico
buona sera...
tra ieri sera ed oggi ho ceduto dei mini..il loss vista l'esposizione era ed è imponente..
situazione attuale, 4 mini aprile 2 mini giugno... devastante..
il dato scorte leggermente migliore ma veramente pessimo rispetto ad 1 anno fa'...
i prelievi sono nell'ordine del 50% in meno e tutte le settimane è cosi ed anche peggio..
fa' caldo.. i consumi di gas per riscaldamento sono pesantemente in ribasso ..
tra ieri sera ed oggi ho ceduto dei mini..il loss vista l'esposizione era ed è imponente..
situazione attuale, 4 mini aprile 2 mini giugno... devastante..
il dato scorte leggermente migliore ma veramente pessimo rispetto ad 1 anno fa'...
i prelievi sono nell'ordine del 50% in meno e tutte le settimane è cosi ed anche peggio..
fa' caldo.. i consumi di gas per riscaldamento sono pesantemente in ribasso ..
furia3
Guest
ciao Neo.....e noi furbi compriamo
NEO_99
Forumer storico
questo articolo la dice lunga sul costo di estrazione... le varie tabelle che circolano in rete ormai sono preistoria.. fanno passi da gigante nel ridurre i costi di estrazione.
Warm weather across the north-eastern United States and soaring output from fracked oil and gas fields have pushed gas prices down to some of the lowest levels for a decade, piling pressure on beleaguered domestic gas producers.
Front-month gas futures prices slumped 5.7 percent yesterday, to $2.77 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices have fallen almost continuously since last summer and are now down nearly 45 percent since June 2011.
It is all a far cry from the $13 gas traded in the summer of 2008 or $15 in late 2005. Prompt prices are now at the lowest level since the depths of the recession in February 2009, and before that August 2002, wiping out more than a decade of price gains.
Most analysts foresee an eventual recovery based on slower supply growth, increased consumption and LNG exports. But any bounce may be smaller than most believe.
Prices will probably settle at a much lower level based on the improved operational efficiency and economics of fracking, including the assembly-line “frac factories” approach being applied by Halliburton and others to drive down costs.
It is possible to see prices averaging under $5 into the second part of the decade. Even forward contracts such as Dec 2013, Dec 2014 and Dec 2015, which settled at $4.14, $4.55 and $4.85 respectively Wednesday, may not offer good value given cost trends within the industry, except as long-term option plays.
In the winter of 2011/12, the U.S. gas market has been hit by a perfect storm of increased supply and falling demand.
On the supply side, fracturing and horizontal drilling have ramped up production from fields such as the Barnett shale in Texas, and are now boosting output of associated gas from tight oil formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’ Eagle Ford.
Industrial consumption has bounced back after the recession. But the long-term downtrend in industrial use has not yet been reversed. A new generation of ethylene and fertilizer plants spurred by the prospect of cheap gas remains in the future.
Manufacturers and petrochemical producers used 550 billion cubic feet (bcf) in October 2011, comparable to the 541 bcf used in October 2007, but far less than the 613 bcf used in 2002, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Structural problems have been compounded by a warmer than normal winter that has cut heating demand from homes and offices, leaving the market carrying higher than usual stocks at the midpoint in the winter heating season.
Heating demand is off 13 percent so far compared with a normal winter, according to the National Weather Service. The impact is being felt especially hard in gas because the unusually warm weather is concentrated in northern and eastern states that rely on gas (and fuel oil) for space heating. In the main gas-consuming parts of the country, heating demand is down 15-20 percent according to the weather service.
As a result, the market is carrying a record amount of gas in storage for the time of year. At the end of December, there were 3,472 bcf of working gas in underground storage, 15 percent higher than average over the last five years, according to EIA.
Traders fear the heating season will finish with a record carry out of gas in storage, beating the previous high of 1,695 bcf in March 2006. Prices would need to remain low through summer to maximise gas burned by power generators and force some operators to shut wells to avoid storage becoming full in the autumn.
There is no doubt that slumping prices threaten a bloodbath for gas producers. But outside observers have consistently underestimated the fracking industry’s ability to cut costs through improvements in technology and the aggressive pursuit of cost and operating efficiencies.
In the middle years of the last decade, analysts put the cost of gas from fracked wells around $6-7 for the most productive core areas of the Barnett shale, and as high as $11 in the outlying zones. The implication was that gas from shale was the marginal source of supply and would set the long-term equilibrium price in the market at $7 or more.
When production continued to rise despite the slide in gas prices below $5 and then $4, most analysts dismissed it, and attributed the increase to higher than expected productivity from old wells, the need to drill or lose leases, and the boost to realised revenues from forward hedging programmes concluded in earlier years at higher prices.
There is evidence drilling activity is being redirected away from gas-rich deposits and towards liquid-rich oil and wet gas plays, as energy firms and frackers respond to price signals. But the industry has achieved enormous operating efficiencies that have driven down the costs of drilling and fracking wells far below the levels which analysts thought possible just a few years ago.
Southwestern Energy halved drilling times from 35 days for a well in 2001 to 17 days in 2006, while EOG cut drilling costs from $1.3 million to $83
Warm weather across the north-eastern United States and soaring output from fracked oil and gas fields have pushed gas prices down to some of the lowest levels for a decade, piling pressure on beleaguered domestic gas producers.
Front-month gas futures prices slumped 5.7 percent yesterday, to $2.77 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices have fallen almost continuously since last summer and are now down nearly 45 percent since June 2011.
It is all a far cry from the $13 gas traded in the summer of 2008 or $15 in late 2005. Prompt prices are now at the lowest level since the depths of the recession in February 2009, and before that August 2002, wiping out more than a decade of price gains.
Most analysts foresee an eventual recovery based on slower supply growth, increased consumption and LNG exports. But any bounce may be smaller than most believe.
Prices will probably settle at a much lower level based on the improved operational efficiency and economics of fracking, including the assembly-line “frac factories” approach being applied by Halliburton and others to drive down costs.
It is possible to see prices averaging under $5 into the second part of the decade. Even forward contracts such as Dec 2013, Dec 2014 and Dec 2015, which settled at $4.14, $4.55 and $4.85 respectively Wednesday, may not offer good value given cost trends within the industry, except as long-term option plays.
In the winter of 2011/12, the U.S. gas market has been hit by a perfect storm of increased supply and falling demand.
On the supply side, fracturing and horizontal drilling have ramped up production from fields such as the Barnett shale in Texas, and are now boosting output of associated gas from tight oil formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’ Eagle Ford.
Industrial consumption has bounced back after the recession. But the long-term downtrend in industrial use has not yet been reversed. A new generation of ethylene and fertilizer plants spurred by the prospect of cheap gas remains in the future.
Manufacturers and petrochemical producers used 550 billion cubic feet (bcf) in October 2011, comparable to the 541 bcf used in October 2007, but far less than the 613 bcf used in 2002, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Structural problems have been compounded by a warmer than normal winter that has cut heating demand from homes and offices, leaving the market carrying higher than usual stocks at the midpoint in the winter heating season.
Heating demand is off 13 percent so far compared with a normal winter, according to the National Weather Service. The impact is being felt especially hard in gas because the unusually warm weather is concentrated in northern and eastern states that rely on gas (and fuel oil) for space heating. In the main gas-consuming parts of the country, heating demand is down 15-20 percent according to the weather service.
As a result, the market is carrying a record amount of gas in storage for the time of year. At the end of December, there were 3,472 bcf of working gas in underground storage, 15 percent higher than average over the last five years, according to EIA.
Traders fear the heating season will finish with a record carry out of gas in storage, beating the previous high of 1,695 bcf in March 2006. Prices would need to remain low through summer to maximise gas burned by power generators and force some operators to shut wells to avoid storage becoming full in the autumn.
There is no doubt that slumping prices threaten a bloodbath for gas producers. But outside observers have consistently underestimated the fracking industry’s ability to cut costs through improvements in technology and the aggressive pursuit of cost and operating efficiencies.
In the middle years of the last decade, analysts put the cost of gas from fracked wells around $6-7 for the most productive core areas of the Barnett shale, and as high as $11 in the outlying zones. The implication was that gas from shale was the marginal source of supply and would set the long-term equilibrium price in the market at $7 or more.
When production continued to rise despite the slide in gas prices below $5 and then $4, most analysts dismissed it, and attributed the increase to higher than expected productivity from old wells, the need to drill or lose leases, and the boost to realised revenues from forward hedging programmes concluded in earlier years at higher prices.
There is evidence drilling activity is being redirected away from gas-rich deposits and towards liquid-rich oil and wet gas plays, as energy firms and frackers respond to price signals. But the industry has achieved enormous operating efficiencies that have driven down the costs of drilling and fracking wells far below the levels which analysts thought possible just a few years ago.
Southwestern Energy halved drilling times from 35 days for a well in 2001 to 17 days in 2006, while EOG cut drilling costs from $1.3 million to $83
aross
Nuovo forumer
NEO_99
Forumer storico
ciao Neo.....e noi furbi compriamo
ciao Furia... se avete Lev e nn siete sovraesposti ci puo' stare..ma io avendo un sacco di mini è impossibile..devo chiudere per forza, loss da incubo... da incubo per colpa mia e dei troppi contratti..ne avessi avuto 1.. oggi mediavo.. ma con i 10 che avevo li potevo mediare con la cassa da morto..
Sgasato
Forumer attivo
NEO_99
Forumer storico
ciao Unqualified ...
tu che con i calcoli ci sai fare..o cmq chiedo a chiunque lo sappia..
puoi postarmi un esempio pratico di come si calcola il delta ?
furia3
Guest
dispiace moltissimo Neo,abbiamo imbroccato l'anno di cacca,l'anno che finito questo trade chiudo con il gas e nn voglio più vederlo...
adesso dobbiamo almeno limitare i danni ,dobiamo provarci fino alla fine
esco per commissione,ci leggiamo stasera..
ciao..
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