NEO_99
Forumer storico
Morning Softs 6/14/12
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - IF - 46 mins ago
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on weather concerns for here and overseas. Golman Sachs said that futures could move higher due to reduced planted area in the US on dry weather in important growing areas of Texas and on low prices. Traders remain bearish the market as supplies seem available here and around the world, but prices have already dropped a lot in the last few months and recent price action suggests that the bearish supply ideas might be already part of the market. Some parts of the Delta and Texas are too dry for best production potential right now, but most areas are showing good enough conditions for planting and initial development to proceed. There are more ideas that planted area could continue to drop on the weak prices. Overall weather is good for planting and initial development in many areas, but conditions did move a little lower in recent days as the south remains mostly hot and dry. Trends are mixed on the charts, and short term trends could be turning up.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and the Southeast will get showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Texas will get dry conditions, although there will be chances for a few thunderstorms in the Panhandle today. Temperatures will average near to below normal through Saturday, then near to above normal again. The USDA spot price is now 68.85 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.133 million bales, from 0.132 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 795,700 bales this year and 219,600 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,800 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 73.90, 70.40, and 69.00 July, with resistance of 76.50, 79.00, and 80.60 July.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. Futures are at a support area on the charts and this seems to have caused a bounce as there are not many reasons to be bullish the market. Florida weather remains good and the demand does not. Some speculative buying has been noted in recent weeks on ideas of a more active storm year, but current improved conditions have kept trends from turning up. Most forecasters say the Atlantic Hurricane season will not be super active, and some expect a quiet season. FCOJ has a weak demand profile, but the Valencia harvest is ending, so producer selling pressure should be easing. The upside might be limited for now due to bigger supplies, or until some sort of legitimate weather threat emerges in the US. Demand for domestically produced Juice is down from last year, and trader worry about European demand due to all of the economic problems there. Weather in Florida remains mostly good, with showers and warm temperatures. The Valencia harvest is about over, and fruit of various sizes can be seen on trees. Brazil is seeing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Prices trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 100.00 July, with resistance at 117.00, 119.00, and 124.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower on general selling tied to the advancing Brazil harvest in New York and Sao Paulo. Roasters are standing aside of the market in London as they wait for prices to fall even further, but prices were able to recover after hitting initial chart objectives for the move down. Ideas are that the upside for the market remains very limited because of the Brazil harvest and the weakening real against the US Dollar. Charts still suggest that futures are in down trends in all three for the short term. London continues to be the stronger market overall as Robusta supplies are relatively tight and demand remains relatively strong. However, this market appears to have completed a top on the charts and this is why the physical demand has fallen. Demand is showing for Central American supplies, but the qualities have been hard to find. Speculators remain short. Brazil coffee areas appear to be in good condition under generally good weather. Some clod weather was seen last week, but for now the cold did appear to be a threat to the Coffee. Flowering is very good so far in Central America, but more rains are needed. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong and have been stable lately.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.564 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 142.92 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get showers, but Central America and Mexico should get some showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Vietnam exported 203,524 tons of Coffee in May, 21% more than April and more than double May 2011. Year to date exports are now 1.13 million tons, 964,000 tons last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 153.00 July. Support is at 153.00, 150.00, and 147.00 July, and resistance is at 159.00, 162.00, and 165.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2040, 1920, and 1900 July. Support is at 2045, 2015, and 1985 July, and resistance is at 2120, 2140, and 2200 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 190.00 September. Support is at 192.00, 189.00, and 186.00 September, and resistance is at 202.00, 203.00, and 210.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower on selling seen in many markets due to economic fears. Rains continue to impede harvest progress and deliveries in Brazil. Harvest delays in Brazil continue to provide the best support to futures, and ideas of new demand in anticipation of Ramadan also helped. Traders anticipate the Brazil crop is becoming available, but the harvest pace so far has been slow due to rains in areas ready to harvest and at ports as mills attempt to deliver. Indications are that Brazil production will be a little bigger than last year due to increased area. Supplies in northern countries remain big, especially in Thailand and India. The market has been weak overall on ideas of ample supplies from northern producers such as India and Europe keeping a lid on prices.
Overnight News: Dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1910 July, and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2100 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 565.00, 562.00, and 560.00 August, and resistance is at 579.00, 591.00, and 604.00 August.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher as ofers from the mid crop harest start to dry up. There were also reports of political violence again in Ivory Coast along with some renewed violence. This means the market is about to enter a time of less supply and that producer selling should become much more limited, and the situation could become even more pronounced if the Ivory Coast tensions do not abate. Charts show that futures are now in sideways for the short term, and remain in a longer term trading range. However, the arket keeps holding lows and is showing signs of moving higher. Rain is forecast for many areas now, and overall weather is called good for the next crop. Showers have been reported in most parts of West Africa in recent days, and some think the current rains will delay harvest and could hurt quality as drying the beans becomes harder. Traders note that Ivory Coast crops seem to be available and arrivals are reported. Arrivals there are reported to be good. Flowers are reported on trees there due to regular rains.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will be mostly dry and warm. ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 5.030 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2190, 2155, and 2085 July, with resistance at 2280, 2300, and 2350 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1510, 1480, and 1440 July, with resistance at 1565, 1585, and 1600 July.
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - IF - 46 mins ago
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on weather concerns for here and overseas. Golman Sachs said that futures could move higher due to reduced planted area in the US on dry weather in important growing areas of Texas and on low prices. Traders remain bearish the market as supplies seem available here and around the world, but prices have already dropped a lot in the last few months and recent price action suggests that the bearish supply ideas might be already part of the market. Some parts of the Delta and Texas are too dry for best production potential right now, but most areas are showing good enough conditions for planting and initial development to proceed. There are more ideas that planted area could continue to drop on the weak prices. Overall weather is good for planting and initial development in many areas, but conditions did move a little lower in recent days as the south remains mostly hot and dry. Trends are mixed on the charts, and short term trends could be turning up.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and the Southeast will get showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Texas will get dry conditions, although there will be chances for a few thunderstorms in the Panhandle today. Temperatures will average near to below normal through Saturday, then near to above normal again. The USDA spot price is now 68.85 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.133 million bales, from 0.132 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 795,700 bales this year and 219,600 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,800 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 73.90, 70.40, and 69.00 July, with resistance of 76.50, 79.00, and 80.60 July.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. Futures are at a support area on the charts and this seems to have caused a bounce as there are not many reasons to be bullish the market. Florida weather remains good and the demand does not. Some speculative buying has been noted in recent weeks on ideas of a more active storm year, but current improved conditions have kept trends from turning up. Most forecasters say the Atlantic Hurricane season will not be super active, and some expect a quiet season. FCOJ has a weak demand profile, but the Valencia harvest is ending, so producer selling pressure should be easing. The upside might be limited for now due to bigger supplies, or until some sort of legitimate weather threat emerges in the US. Demand for domestically produced Juice is down from last year, and trader worry about European demand due to all of the economic problems there. Weather in Florida remains mostly good, with showers and warm temperatures. The Valencia harvest is about over, and fruit of various sizes can be seen on trees. Brazil is seeing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Prices trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 100.00 July, with resistance at 117.00, 119.00, and 124.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower on general selling tied to the advancing Brazil harvest in New York and Sao Paulo. Roasters are standing aside of the market in London as they wait for prices to fall even further, but prices were able to recover after hitting initial chart objectives for the move down. Ideas are that the upside for the market remains very limited because of the Brazil harvest and the weakening real against the US Dollar. Charts still suggest that futures are in down trends in all three for the short term. London continues to be the stronger market overall as Robusta supplies are relatively tight and demand remains relatively strong. However, this market appears to have completed a top on the charts and this is why the physical demand has fallen. Demand is showing for Central American supplies, but the qualities have been hard to find. Speculators remain short. Brazil coffee areas appear to be in good condition under generally good weather. Some clod weather was seen last week, but for now the cold did appear to be a threat to the Coffee. Flowering is very good so far in Central America, but more rains are needed. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong and have been stable lately.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.564 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 142.92 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get showers, but Central America and Mexico should get some showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Vietnam exported 203,524 tons of Coffee in May, 21% more than April and more than double May 2011. Year to date exports are now 1.13 million tons, 964,000 tons last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 153.00 July. Support is at 153.00, 150.00, and 147.00 July, and resistance is at 159.00, 162.00, and 165.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2040, 1920, and 1900 July. Support is at 2045, 2015, and 1985 July, and resistance is at 2120, 2140, and 2200 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 190.00 September. Support is at 192.00, 189.00, and 186.00 September, and resistance is at 202.00, 203.00, and 210.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower on selling seen in many markets due to economic fears. Rains continue to impede harvest progress and deliveries in Brazil. Harvest delays in Brazil continue to provide the best support to futures, and ideas of new demand in anticipation of Ramadan also helped. Traders anticipate the Brazil crop is becoming available, but the harvest pace so far has been slow due to rains in areas ready to harvest and at ports as mills attempt to deliver. Indications are that Brazil production will be a little bigger than last year due to increased area. Supplies in northern countries remain big, especially in Thailand and India. The market has been weak overall on ideas of ample supplies from northern producers such as India and Europe keeping a lid on prices.
Overnight News: Dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1910 July, and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2100 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 565.00, 562.00, and 560.00 August, and resistance is at 579.00, 591.00, and 604.00 August.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher as ofers from the mid crop harest start to dry up. There were also reports of political violence again in Ivory Coast along with some renewed violence. This means the market is about to enter a time of less supply and that producer selling should become much more limited, and the situation could become even more pronounced if the Ivory Coast tensions do not abate. Charts show that futures are now in sideways for the short term, and remain in a longer term trading range. However, the arket keeps holding lows and is showing signs of moving higher. Rain is forecast for many areas now, and overall weather is called good for the next crop. Showers have been reported in most parts of West Africa in recent days, and some think the current rains will delay harvest and could hurt quality as drying the beans becomes harder. Traders note that Ivory Coast crops seem to be available and arrivals are reported. Arrivals there are reported to be good. Flowers are reported on trees there due to regular rains.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will be mostly dry and warm. ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 5.030 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2190, 2155, and 2085 July, with resistance at 2280, 2300, and 2350 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1510, 1480, and 1440 July, with resistance at 1565, 1585, and 1600 July.
