Donzauker
Forumer attivo
'notte a tutti.
ecco le previsioni di Ben per le scorte gas di giovedì: -28bcf, che sarebbe molto buono come dato:
Storage for EIA report date 11/15/12
this weeks storage poll is for week ending 11/9 and reported by EIA on 11/16.
observation:
U.S. gas production near all time highs.
however, total north american supply is approximately the same as last year. U.S. output is 1.5bcf/d higher than 2011 levels while Canadian output is down by 1.5bcf/d.
total degree demand was much higher than normal and the same week last yr as winter storm hit the northeast.
these colder temps helped push res/comm demand up by nearly 5bcf/d from the week prior.
nuke outages remain unusually high, placing additional demand loads on gas fired units.
still, gas power demand on a weather adjusted basis has fallen substantially over the past month, indicating coal is regaining market share.
once maintenance season is complete, i expect the market to be close to balanced on a weather adjusted basis.
again, pipe data is indicating a much larger draw than what my weather regressions point to.
a wide range of estimates this week which is normal during the weeks we flip from inject to draws.
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 131 (6cdd 125hdd)
previous week: 104 (3cdd 101hdd)
same week last yr: 119 (4cdd 115hdd)
avg: 118 (5cdd 113hdd)
next wk fcst: 113 (6cdd 107hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: +20
5-yr avg: +17
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my current estimate is -28 bcf
ecco le previsioni di Ben per le scorte gas di giovedì: -28bcf, che sarebbe molto buono come dato:
Storage for EIA report date 11/15/12
this weeks storage poll is for week ending 11/9 and reported by EIA on 11/16.
observation:
U.S. gas production near all time highs.
however, total north american supply is approximately the same as last year. U.S. output is 1.5bcf/d higher than 2011 levels while Canadian output is down by 1.5bcf/d.
total degree demand was much higher than normal and the same week last yr as winter storm hit the northeast.
these colder temps helped push res/comm demand up by nearly 5bcf/d from the week prior.
nuke outages remain unusually high, placing additional demand loads on gas fired units.
still, gas power demand on a weather adjusted basis has fallen substantially over the past month, indicating coal is regaining market share.
once maintenance season is complete, i expect the market to be close to balanced on a weather adjusted basis.
again, pipe data is indicating a much larger draw than what my weather regressions point to.
a wide range of estimates this week which is normal during the weeks we flip from inject to draws.
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 131 (6cdd 125hdd)
previous week: 104 (3cdd 101hdd)
same week last yr: 119 (4cdd 115hdd)
avg: 118 (5cdd 113hdd)
next wk fcst: 113 (6cdd 107hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: +20
5-yr avg: +17
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my current estimate is -28 bcf
