Oriel Securities Limited
Address: 150 Cheapside, London EC2V 6ET
Nicox is a fast-growing specialty pharmaceutical company focused on ophthalmology. The expected US launch of its glaucoma treatment Vesneo in 1H16 by partner Valeant, combined with its recently expanded European commercial business, looks set to generate significant sales and subsequent profits in the coming years. We initiate coverage with a ‘BUY’ rating.
Vesneo offers ‘blockbuster’ potential. The expected US launch of glaucoma treatment Vesneo in 1H16 should transform Nicox from a loss-making business into a profitable, international specialty pharmaceutical company, focused on ophthalmology. Partnered with Valeant’s wholly owned ophthalmic division, Bausch+Lomb (B+L), Vesneo is a nitric oxide-donating analogue of the market-leading prostaglandin eye drop, latanoprost. Following positive Phase III results in September 2014, Valeant expects to file for approval of Vesneo with the FDA in 2Q15 and is anticipating peak sales in the US of ~US$500m+, and peak global sales of ~US$1bn+. We believe Vesneo’s superiority to its currently marketed competitor products will allow it to gain a sizeable share of the US$4.5bn global glaucoma market. Nicox stands to earn 6-11% in net, tiered royalties on sales, and up to US$130m in milestones. Boosted by expected launches in the EU and Japan in 2017 and 2018 respectively, we forecast global sales of Vesneo of US$886m by 2021E, and exceeding US$1bn by 2023E.
Three further ophthalmology drugs approaching the market. Sitting behind Vesneo are a host of pipeline products with the capability to deliver substantial upside to Nicox’s business. Following a positive pre-NDA meeting with the FDA, we expect Nicox to apply for US approval of AC-170 (a treatment for the ocular itching associated with conjunctivitis) by 1Q16. Based on a 2017E launch, we forecast sales of AC-170 of US$62m by 2021E. In Europe, Nicox has in-licensed AzaSite (a treatment for bacterial conjunctivitis currently marketed by Akorn), and BromSite (for post-surgical inflammation and pain). With EU filing expected in 1Q16 and launch in late 2017 for both these products, we forecast combined sales of €18m in 2021E.
Achieving critical mass in Europe. Through its recent expansion in Germany, its acquisition of Italian-based Eupharmed in November 2013, and its acquisition of French company Doliage in September 2014, Nicox has established specialist sales teams in all five of the major European markets: Italy, UK, Germany, Spain & France. This infrastructure delivers the operational and commercial leverage needed to maximise Nicox’s portfolio of products, provides a robust platform for in-licensing products, and makes Nicox an attractive candidate for ophthalmology partnerships.
Initiating coverage with a ‘BUY’ rating and €3.19 target price. Based on our risk-adjusted NPV we value Nicox at €3.19/share. We believe Nicox’s expanded European business and catalytic product Vesneo offer significant upside to its current valuation.