Brazil
We revised up our 2Q17 GDP growth forecast to - 0.1%q/q saar
Now, we forecast GDP to grow 0.7% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018
Fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018 were revised to BRL159bn deficits
S&P removed the credit watch with negative implications and affirmed Brazil’s BB sovereign rating, but kept the negative outlook
As expected, one of the main highlights of the week was the final June growth indicators. All signaled solid performance: retail sales grew 2.5%m/m, sa, service-sector output increased 1.3%, and the IBC-Br (the Central Bank’s proxy of economic activity) expanded 0.5%. Taking these figures into account, and the previous upside risk to our forecasts, we revised up our 2Q GDP growth estimate to -0.1%q/q, saar, from -1%. In addition, we raise our GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 0.7% from 0% and for 2018 to 2.1% from 1.8%, as politics should be less of a drag on activity than we expected. The revision of the fiscal targets also commanded market agents’ attention. The economic team increased the primary deficit target (i.e., before interest on debt) to BRL159bn this year and the next, from BRL139bn and BRL 129bn, respectively, blaming disappointing revenues. The government also announced measures aimed at increasing revenues and curbing expenditures, and increased the 2019 and 2020 deficit targets. This led us to revise our forecast for gross debt, which we expect to end this year at 75.4% of GDP and 2018 at 78.6%. The target change still has to be approved by Congress. Even with this revision, S&P removed Brazil’s long-term sovereign ratings from credit watch with negative implications and affirmed the BB rating. The outlook on the rating remained negative. According to the press release, the agency based its decision on the view that the economy appears to have stabilized and that the government remains committed to advancing its reform agenda. The agency’s analysts reinforced the need for the government to maintain efforts to pass reforms, mainly the pension reform, under the risk of a downgrade in the coming months (see “Sem reformas, cresce risco de corte do rating, diz S&P,” Valor Econômico, August 17).