Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti Obbligazioni Brasile e Petrobras

[Owblisky]

S&P mantiene nota soberana de Brasil en "BB", cambia panorama a negativo
Redacción de Reuters
(Reuters) - La agencia calificadora Standard & Poor's mantuvo el martes la nota soberana de Brasil en "BB" y cambió su panorama a "negativo".

S&P dijo que el cambio del panorama a "negativo" refleja su visión de que hay al menos una posibilidad en tres de que le rebaje la nota al gigante sudamericano en los próximos seis a nueve meses.

La agencia destacó que la calificación muestra que las instituciones políticas establecidas en Brasil dan un apoyo importante a la estabilidad económica del país.

Justo antes de conocerse la decisión de S&P, el Gobierno brasileño elevó sus metas de déficit de presupuesto antes del pago de intereses para este y el próximo año a 159.000 millones de reales (49.700 millones de dólares), desde 139.000 millones de reales para este año y de 129.000 millones de reales para el 2018.

La variazione dell'outlook di S&P mi ha portato ad alleggerire il Brasiliame in ptf.
Non vorrei ritrovarmi a ridare indietro i discreti guadagni attuali. Poi con calma, mi pento.

Ora il problema è dove allocare i dollari in attesa che il cambio torni a livelli umani.
Se qualcuno avesse qualche idea, ogni suggerimento è gradito.

 

[Brizione]

La variazione dell'outlook di S&P mi ha portato ad alleggerire il Brasiliame in ptf.
Non vorrei ritrovarmi a ridare indietro i discreti guadagni attuali. Poi con calma, mi pento.

Ora il problema è dove allocare i dollari in attesa che il cambio torni a livelli umani.
Se qualcuno avesse qualche idea, ogni suggerimento è gradito.

Due giorni fa ho postato un lungo elenco di bond usd

 

[Owblisky]

Due giorni fa ho postato un lungo elenco di bond usd

Su quale 3d lo trovo ? Grazie.

 

[Brizione]

Su quale 3d lo trovo ? Grazie.

High yield pagina 4853
Lo trovi lì

 

[Owblisky]

High yield pagina 4853
Lo trovi lì

Gentilissimo.
Ci do un'occhiata.
Grazie.

 

[Fabrib]

Petrobras production slips in July - Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE:PBR) | Seeking Alpha

 

[Brizione]

S&P ha ritirato ieri l'outlook negativo....


,

 

[Owblisky]

S&P ha ritirato ieri l'outlook negativo....


,

Vedi l'allegato 441919

Non mi risulta nessun ritiro.
L'outlook è confermato negativo.

 

[Vespasianus]

Economia cresce mais que o esperado em junho e expande 0,25% no 2º tri, aponta BC
Por Camila Moreira
SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - A atividade econômica do Brasil cresceu mais do que o esperado em junho e terminou o segundo trimestre com crescimento, segundo resultado seguido no azul e sinalizando recuperação gradual em meio a um ambiente de inflação fraca.

O Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br), espécie de sinalizador do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) divulgado nesta quinta-feira, apresentou expansão de 0,25 por cento entre abril e junho na comparação com os três primeiros meses do ano, em dado dessazonalizado.

No primeiro trimestre, o IBC-Br teve alta de 1,22 por cento sobre o quarto trimestre de 2016. Os dados oficiais divulgados pelo IBGE mostram que o PIB do Brasil cresceu 1 por cento nos três primeiros meses do ano.

Somente em junho, o indicador do BC subiu 0,5 por cento sobre maio, bem melhor do que a expectativa em pesquisa da Reuters de avanço de 0,20 por cento.

Economia cresce mais que o esperado em junho e expande 0,25% no 2º tri, aponta BC

 

[Brizione]

Non mi risulta nessun ritiro.
L'outlook è confermato negativo.

Buongiorno,


Vedo il contrario, che hanno tolto il CreditWarch negative per Brasile:


X-S&PGR Takes Various Rtg Actions On Brazilian Financial Inst.

2017-08-16 18:49:33.763 GMT



-- On Aug. 15, 2017, we affirmed our 'BB' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Republic of Brazil and removed it from CreditWatch with negative implications, because the political landscape is somewhat more settled as President Temer survived a vote--by the Federal Electoral Court (TSE) in June and by Congress in August--related to corruption charges. Meanwhile, the economy appears to have stabilized despite fluid politics.

-- The negative outlook, however, reflects ongoing political challenges and the risk of a downgrade over the next six to nine months-given Brazil's high and rising debt burden--should Congress fail to advance legislation that begins to reduce Brazil's fiscal rigidities, which hinder deficit reduction and sustained moderation in spending growth.

-- As a result, we've removed ratings on 36 financial institutions from CreditWatch negative. The outlook on the entities is now negative, reflecting the negative outlook on the sovereign and the negative trend in the economic and industry risks.

-- At the same time, we reviewed the long- and short-term national scale ratings on various financial institutions that were under criteria observation

(UCO) following the recalibration of our national scale mapping table for Brazil, published on Aug. 14, 2017.

-- Finally, we reviewed the ratings on four financial institutions that were on UCO since July 20, 2017, following changes in our risk-adjusted capital framework (RACF) criteria to evaluate the capital adequacy of bank and certain nonbank financial institutions.

SAO PAULO (S&P Global Ratings) Aug. 16, 2017--S&P Global Ratings affirmed ratings on 36 Brazilian financial institutions and removed ratings from CreditWatch negative following the same rating action on the sovereign. We also assigned a negative outlook on these entities. At the same time, we reviewed the ratings on several financial institutions that were under criteria observation due to changes in our RACF criteria and the recalibration of national scale mapping table for Brazil.


We have resolved the CreditWatch negative on the long-term global and/or national scale issuer credit and debt ratings on the entities listed below, following the same rating action on the sovereign and after evaluating the impact of recent political and economic developments in the Brazilian banking system. Simultaneously, we reviewed the long-term and/or short-term credit and debt national scale ratings and removed the UCO identifier, following the recalibration of our Brazilian national scale mapping table, according to our criteria "S&P Global Ratings' National And Regional Scale Mapping Tables"

published on Aug. 14, 2017.

-- Ativos S.A. Securitizadora de Creditos Financeiros;

-- Banco ABC Brasil S.A.;

-- Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A.;

-- Banco Bradesco S.A.;

-- Banco BTG Pactual S.A.;

-- Banco Citibank S.A.;

-- Banco Daycoval S.A.;

-- Banco de Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil S/A;

-- Banco do Brasil S.A;

-- Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul S.A.;

-- Banco do Nordeste do Brasil S.A.;

-- Banco Intermedium S.A.;

-- Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.;

-- Banco Morgan Stanley S.A.;

-- Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social;


-- Banco Ole Bonsucesso Consignado S.A.;

-- Banco Pan S.A.;

-- Banco Paulista S.A.;

-- Banco Pine S.A.;

-- Banco Safra S.A.;

-- Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A.;

-- Banco Toyota do Brasil S.A.;

-- Banco Volkswagen S.A.;

-- Banco Votorantim S.A.;

-- B3 S.A - Brasil, Bolsa, Balcao;

-- BNDESPar-BNDES Participacoes S.A.;

-- Bradesco Capitalizacao S.A.;

-- BV Leasing Arrendamento Mercantil S.A.;

-- Caixa Economica Federal;

-- Caruana S.A. - Sociedade de Credito, Financiamento e Investimento;

-- GP Investments Ltd.;

-- China Construction Bank (Brasil) Banco Multiplo S.A.;

-- Haitong Banco de Investimento do Brasil S.A.;

-- Itau Unibanco Holding S.A.;

-- Itau Unibanco S.A.; and

-- Parana Banco S.A


We removed the UCO identifier on the long-term and/or short-term credit and debt national scale ratings on the entities listed below following the recalibration of our Brazilian national scale mapping table, according to our criteria "S&P Global Ratings' National And Regional Scale Mapping Tables,"

published on Aug. 14, 2017. These two entities weren't on CreditWatch negative.


-- Banco Fibra S.A.; and

-- Banco Mercantil Do Brasil S.A.


We have also reviewed the ratings of the following financial institutions that we labelled as UCO on July 20, 2017, due to changes in our RACF criteria. As a result, we have removed the UCO identifier and revised the ratings on those entities based on the application of the new criteria.

-- Banco Pan S.A.;

-- Banco Paulista S.A.;

-- Banco Intermedium S.A.; and

-- Parana Banco S.A.


The rating action reflects our view that the political landscape is somewhat more settled in Brazil, since we placed Brazil's ratings on CreditWatch with Negative implications in May, as President Temer survived a vote--by the Federal Electoral Court (TSE) in June and by Congress in August--related to corruption charges. Meanwhile, the economy appears to have stabilized despite fluid politics, Congress passed a labor reform in July, and the government remains committed to advancing some pension reform, containing expenditure growth to minimize deviation from its primary fiscal targets, and advancing its active microeconomic reform agenda.


Our negative economic risk trend on the banking industry reflects the risk that credit losses could increase from the already high levels if feeble economic recovery prevents borrowers from recover their business viability.

Brazil's economic risk reflects its low GDP per capita, political uncertainty, and economic slump. Brazilian banks are going through a correction phase, and house prices and lending are contracting in real terms. We consider the correction phase to have a severe impact on Brazilian banks as a result of a prolonged recession, and we don't expect conditions to improve significantly in 2017. We believe that continued economic stagnation and stringent conditions for credit constrain a recovery of the corporate sector, which is reflected in higher nonperforming loans (NPLs) and credit losses. Moreover, the rising level of renegotiated and restructured loans exacerbates the risk of a sharp uptick in credit losses that are not fully covered by provisions.

Our industry risk trend is negative, reflecting the risk of corruption investigations of senior management of several large banks or significant debtors. Our industry risk assessment for Brazil reflects the large presence of government-owned banks, which has caused significant distortions in the financial system over the past few years, weakening competitive dynamics.

However, the government's fiscal position limits its capacity to continue injecting capital in these banks, limiting their capacity to sustain its lending growth at the same pace, which should reduce banking system's distortions. The country's financial regulation has been improving thanks to its extensive coverage and closer alignment with international standards. The Brazilian banking system also has an adequate funding mix with a stable core customer deposit base and satisfactory access to domestic and international capital markets. In addition, banks' dependence on external funding is fairly

However, the government's fiscal position limits its capacity to continue injecting capital in these banks, limiting their capacity to sustain its lending growth at the same pace, which should reduce banking system's distortions. The country's financial regulation has been improving thanks to its extensive coverage and closer alignment with international standards. The Brazilian banking system also has an adequate funding mix with a stable core customer deposit base and satisfactory access to domestic and international capital markets. In addition, banks' dependence on external funding is fairly

low: 7.6% of the system's total liabilities as of the end of 2016. In addition, although the banking sector's profitability remains relatively high despite the economic malaise, this is due to high net interest margins and business diversification, which encompasses bank assurance and asset management. Banks' profitability, measured by return on equity, has averaged at 15.3% for the past three years (about 13.5% in 2016), below the 18.9% average in 2007-2011. Profitability started to decrease when government-owned banks began to gain market share through lower interest rates. However, the profitability drop is currently due to increasing provisions, because margins in 2016 have increased as a result of lower competition from government-owned banks. Banks have taken a conservative approach towards credit and have been tightening their underwriting practices since 2015, shifting to safer products such as payroll deductible loans and mortgages. We expect profitability to remain subdued in 2017 but to improve in 2018 as economic conditions improve.


The negative outlook on the financial institutions that have their rating limited by that of the sovereign reflects our view that there's at least a one-in-three likelihood that we could lower the ratings on Brazil over the coming six to nine months. In addition, the negative outlook on all other entities reflects the negative trend in the economic and industry risks in our banking industry country risk assessment (BICRA) of Brazil. A revision of the BICRA to a weaker category would result in a downgrade of the anchor, the starting point of the ratings on all entities operating in Brazil, to 'bb'

from 'bb+'. Moreover, our capital and earnings assessment on all financial institutions operating in Brazil could drop to a weaker category stemming from higher risk weights if the economic risk in Brazil rises. This could cause the banks' stand-alone credit profiles to drop.


The ratings on the entities that have their rating limited by that of the sovereign could stabilize over the coming six to nine months if we revised the outlook on the sovereign to stable. In addition, the outlook on all other entities could move to stable if we revise the trend in the economic and industry risks in our BICRA of Brazil to stable.