Obbligazioni societarie Obbligazioni FIAT Chrsyler Automobiles (FCA)
Imark
Forumer storico
In creditwatch negativo da parte di Moody's. Fra le motivazioni, la velocità nel calo delle vendite nel comparto automotive, con le difficoltà che la struttura dei costi possa essere altrettanto rapidamente ed efficacemente ridimensionata per adeguare la produzione alla nuova situazione delle vendite ed il conseguente deterioramento dei parametri finanziari.
Segue una lista abbastanza completa di variabili da tenere d'occhio.
Lo faremo anche qui e vedremo come andrà...
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's places under review for possible downgrade Fiat's Baa3/P-3 ratings[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Approximately EUR7.2 Billion of Debt Affected. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Frankfurt, January 15, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today placed under review for possible downgrade Fiat SpA's ("Fiat") Baa3 long term and Prime-3 short term ratings.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Falk Frey, Senior Vice President and the lead analyst at Moody's for the European automotive sector, said: "The review reflects the more severe decline of Fiat's key automotive markets than previously anticipated by magnitude as well as by pace which is likely to result in a deterioration of Fiat's profitability and cash generation and impact its operating profile and credit metrics which might no longer be in line with the current rating category." Frey went on to say: "the current global economic downturn affects almost all of Fiat's business divisions - with exception of the agricultural equipment sector - in all of its geographies thus not providing the group with the beneficial impact from its diversified operations." [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In the first nine months of 2008 Fiat's consolidated revenues increased by 8.4% against the previous year's period with all of the company's industrial businesses contributing to the improvement. Also trading profit for the group increased to € 2.7 billion or 18% though the agency notes that the developments of the working capital led already to a material cash absorption as at September. The sharp contraction in the global economic activity in the course of the fourth quarter is expected to impact Fiat's results and cash flows. Similar to other European peers, Fiat's automotive operations have reported an accelerating decline in their passenger car registrations in October and November by -11.6% and -29.2% respectively. Moody's believes that such a rapid decline in revenues would have an adverse effect on profitability and cash generation as the adjustment of the cost structure will not hold pace at the same speed. Though the agency notes that a material part of the finance operations of the auto segment are carried out through joint venture with financial institutions which is a distinctive characteristics compared to its European peers, the group is still engaged directly in certain finance activities for its industrial businesses which have on-going needs to access capital and bank markets. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's review will focus on (i) the dimension and time horizon of the deterioration in Fiat's financial metrics in face of the challenging current market outlooks for its various industrial operations; (ii) the ability -- as well as attached costs - of the company to pursue the adjustment of its industrial capacity which the company already started in Q4 2008; (iii) the additional measures that may be contemplated by management to improve profitability and redress the developments in working capital; (iv) the size of potential cash absorption by the industrial operations in the intermediate term as well as (v) the extent to which Fiat's diversified business operation could mitigate the anticipated collapse in automotive demand in Europe and other key markets of the company (v) the plans to fund its finance operations in 2009 and beyond and (vi) the ability to improve its weakened liquidity profile in the industrial business. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]On Review for Possible Downgrade: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance & Trade Ltd. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently P-3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3, P-3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance Canada Ltd. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance North America Inc. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3, P-3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat S.p.A. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Outlook Actions: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance & Trade Ltd. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance Canada Ltd. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance North America Inc. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat S.p.A. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The principal methodology used in rating Fiat was the Global Automobile Manufacturer Industry Methodology, which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory, in the Ratings Methodologies subdirectory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's last rating action on Fiat was an upgrade of the company's ratings to Baa3/P-3 with a stable outlook from Ba1/NP on May 28, 2008. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Fiat S.p.A., headquartered in Turin, is one of the largest industrial groups in Italy and the fourth largest European-based automobile manufacturer, with revenues of EUR58.5 billion generated in fiscal year 2007. The company is also a leading European-based manufacturer of commercial vehicles and one of the largest producers of agricultural equipment in the world.[/FONT]
Segue una lista abbastanza completa di variabili da tenere d'occhio.
Lo faremo anche qui e vedremo come andrà...
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's places under review for possible downgrade Fiat's Baa3/P-3 ratings[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Frankfurt, January 15, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today placed under review for possible downgrade Fiat SpA's ("Fiat") Baa3 long term and Prime-3 short term ratings.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Falk Frey, Senior Vice President and the lead analyst at Moody's for the European automotive sector, said: "The review reflects the more severe decline of Fiat's key automotive markets than previously anticipated by magnitude as well as by pace which is likely to result in a deterioration of Fiat's profitability and cash generation and impact its operating profile and credit metrics which might no longer be in line with the current rating category." Frey went on to say: "the current global economic downturn affects almost all of Fiat's business divisions - with exception of the agricultural equipment sector - in all of its geographies thus not providing the group with the beneficial impact from its diversified operations." [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In the first nine months of 2008 Fiat's consolidated revenues increased by 8.4% against the previous year's period with all of the company's industrial businesses contributing to the improvement. Also trading profit for the group increased to € 2.7 billion or 18% though the agency notes that the developments of the working capital led already to a material cash absorption as at September. The sharp contraction in the global economic activity in the course of the fourth quarter is expected to impact Fiat's results and cash flows. Similar to other European peers, Fiat's automotive operations have reported an accelerating decline in their passenger car registrations in October and November by -11.6% and -29.2% respectively. Moody's believes that such a rapid decline in revenues would have an adverse effect on profitability and cash generation as the adjustment of the cost structure will not hold pace at the same speed. Though the agency notes that a material part of the finance operations of the auto segment are carried out through joint venture with financial institutions which is a distinctive characteristics compared to its European peers, the group is still engaged directly in certain finance activities for its industrial businesses which have on-going needs to access capital and bank markets. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's review will focus on (i) the dimension and time horizon of the deterioration in Fiat's financial metrics in face of the challenging current market outlooks for its various industrial operations; (ii) the ability -- as well as attached costs - of the company to pursue the adjustment of its industrial capacity which the company already started in Q4 2008; (iii) the additional measures that may be contemplated by management to improve profitability and redress the developments in working capital; (iv) the size of potential cash absorption by the industrial operations in the intermediate term as well as (v) the extent to which Fiat's diversified business operation could mitigate the anticipated collapse in automotive demand in Europe and other key markets of the company (v) the plans to fund its finance operations in 2009 and beyond and (vi) the ability to improve its weakened liquidity profile in the industrial business. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]On Review for Possible Downgrade: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance & Trade Ltd. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently P-3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3, P-3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance Canada Ltd. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance North America Inc. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3, P-3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat S.p.A. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Baa3 [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Outlook Actions: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance & Trade Ltd. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance Canada Ltd. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat Finance North America Inc. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]..Issuer: Fiat S.p.A. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The principal methodology used in rating Fiat was the Global Automobile Manufacturer Industry Methodology, which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory, in the Ratings Methodologies subdirectory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's last rating action on Fiat was an upgrade of the company's ratings to Baa3/P-3 with a stable outlook from Ba1/NP on May 28, 2008. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Fiat S.p.A., headquartered in Turin, is one of the largest industrial groups in Italy and the fourth largest European-based automobile manufacturer, with revenues of EUR58.5 billion generated in fiscal year 2007. The company is also a leading European-based manufacturer of commercial vehicles and one of the largest producers of agricultural equipment in the world.[/FONT]
piper68
I "veri" eroi...
Imark
Forumer storico
Non pensavo mi prendeste troppo sul serio vendendo a mani basse il 2011...
Mi sa che la cd. "gufata" l'avevo fatta io ieri, senza volerlo, of course...
Capirex85
Value investor
In poche parole d'ora in avanti si brucia cash e non è un buon momento per farlo con i tassi che si pagano sul mercato. Gm docet.
Ero sicuro che prima o poi sarebbe arrivato il credit watch...
Bene, ancora qualche trimestre e poi inizia il divertimento... prevedo più di un fallen angel in questo comparto a cavallo tra il 2009 e il 2010... e diverse occasioni per chi saprà aspettare alla finestra
Imark
Forumer storico
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In poche parole d'ora in avanti si brucia cash e non è un buon momento per farlo con i tassi che si pagano sul mercato. Gm docet.
Ero sicuro che prima o poi sarebbe arrivato il credit watch...
Bene, ancora qualche trimestre e poi inizia il divertimento... prevedo più di un fallen angel in questo comparto a cavallo tra il 2009 e il 2010
In questo comparto credo che il timing "giusto" per una esposizione possa venire non prima delle trimestrali del Q1/2009 (e quindi a tarda primavera), quando vedremo l'esito del deterioramento del quadro macro sulle vendite di inizio 2009. Da monitorare altrimenti l'andamento nel quarter successivo...
Fallen angels ce ne saranno diversi, penso anch'io...
Capirex85
Value investor
In questo comparto credo che il timing "giusto" per una esposizione possa venire non prima delle trimestrali del Q1/2009 (e quindi a tarda primavera), quando vedremo l'esito del deterioramento del quadro macro sulle vendite di inizio 2009. Da monitorare altrimenti l'andamento nel quarter successivo...
Fallen angels ce ne saranno diversi, penso anch'io...
Secondo me bisognerà aspettare fine 2009, inizio 2010. Le case automobilistiche più deboli saranno dilaniate dalle perdite nei prossimi 4-5 trimestri (Fiat è tra queste imho). Marchionne fa bene ad avere paura, in queste situazioni anche un buon management può fare poco. Come dice Buffett, quando un buon manager e un cattivo business si incrociano, è la reputazione del business che rimane intatta.
Cmq il timing giusto lo diranno solo i prezzi, quando saranno sufficientemente bassi sarà il momento di entrare. L'ideale sarebbe il default di un grosso emittente.
ladiga
Nuovo forumer
ciao Capire,
tutto condivisibile quello che dici. Ma ti chiedo: alla luce di quanto promesso da Obama, e di quanto DOVRA' tentare di fare da martedì 20 gennaio appena seduto alla Casa Bianca ancora con il bicchiere in mano,
ma quale sarà quel capo di governo o presidente di un paese produttore di auto che permetterà il primo presunto default?
Non parliamo di un player sconosciuto di un paese in via di sviluppo.
La politica a che serve? Chi può permettersi di cancellare una Peugeot,
una Citroen, una Fiat, una Daimler? Senza aver provato di tutto e di più.
Lo scrissi dall'altra parte: piuttosto avremo ipotesi di haircut, ma dubito fortemente, ripeto il fortemente, che l'industria automotive dei grandi si possa pemettere un default-mega.
Ciò non significa che bisogna buttarsi a comperare bonds tanto le salvano.
No. Il rischio di perdite rimane.
ladiga
businessman
Guest
In questo comparto credo che il timing "giusto" per una esposizione possa venire non prima delle trimestrali del Q1/2009 (e quindi a tarda primavera), quando vedremo l'esito del deterioramento del quadro macro sulle vendite di inizio 2009. Da monitorare altrimenti l'andamento nel quarter successivo...
Fallen angels ce ne saranno diversi, penso anch'io...
io sto aspettando il momento per comprare bond automobilistici e pure l'auto nuova
e sto progettando di prenderla verso la metà del 2009
o la fine della primavera 
slowdown
Forumer storico
prova ad andare a vedere cosa sta succedento ORA alle banche americane ...
ci saranno soldi per tutti?
io no so se , chi come ,quando , perchè ... ma credo sia necessario fare anche una valutazione spannometrica
visto che ormai l'assalto alla diligenza sembra inarrestabile , qualche dubbio che "" i nostri "" portino tutti a casa la pelle potrebbe anche essere preso in cconsiderazione
solo un morto ed un ferito mi sembrano danni incongruenti con lo stato delle cose