Rating Action:
Moody's downgrades Moby's CFR to Ca from Caa3; outlook negative
20 Dec 2019
Senior secured notes downgraded to Caa3
Paris, December 20, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Italian ferry operator Moby S.p.A.'s (Moby) corporate family rating (CFR) to Ca from Caa3 and its probability of default rating (PDR) to Ca-PD from Caa3-PD. Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded the EUR300 million worth of senior secured notes to Caa3 from Caa2. The outlook remains negative.
"The downgrade reflects the company's increased probability of default and the high likelihood of a potential debt restructuring in the near term", says Guillaume Leglise, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and lead analyst for Moby. "Moby has very limited liquidity cushion and a balance sheet restructuring involving losses for financial creditors looks increasingly likely in the short run" adds Mr Leglise.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Ca CFR reflects Moby's unsustainable capital structure relative to its earnings potential, high restructuring risks based on its depressed debt valuation as well as its weak liquidity position that resulted from weak profitability and increasing capital spending.
Moby's liquidity profile is weak. The company's cash balance was at EUR56 million at end-September 2019. Absent any major disposal of vessels, Moody's expects Moby's liquidity profile to deteriorate because of significant cash outflows in the next 12 months, notably following the repayment of EUR50 million in February 2020 due under the company's amortizing bank loan.
Given the limited earnings recovery prospects in 2020, sustained maintenance capital expenditures and seasonal working capital swings, Moody's believes that the company will face a liquidity shortfall in the short run. As such, today's rating action reflects the increased likelihood that Moby will seek to restructure its balance sheet in a way that leads to losses for some of the company's senior financial creditors.
Moby has recently announced the start of discussions with senior lenders and bondholders. Moby has also engaged financial advisors to assist in evaluating financial alternatives. Moody's believes this process could lead to a potential distressed debt exchange and significant principal losses for creditors.
RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects the high likelihood of a distressed exchange or default in the next 12 months.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
Moby's rating incorporates environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations, in particular the large capital spending needed to comply with the upcoming IMO 2020 regulation, which Moby will have to comply with from the 1 January 2020. This regulation bans ships using fuel with a sulfur content higher than 0.5%, compared with 3.5% currently, unless a vessel is equipped to clean up its sulfur emissions. Moody's expects this regulation will lead to increased operational costs, from the use of lower-sulfur fuels, or increased capital spending to equip vessels with scrubbers to clean up exhaust emissions.
Moody's believes that the company has aggressive corporate governance practices, as illustrated by some cash transactions with related parties, in particular with the chairman of the board since in 2016, which may not be in the interest of creditors at a time when the company's financial profile is deteriorating.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS DOWN/UP
An upgrade is unlikely at this stage in light of today's action. Over time, upward pressure on the rating could develop if Moby restores its profitability and materially improves its free cash flow generation. Also, a rating upgrade would require liquidity to strengthen, supported, for instance, by adequate covenant headroom, and more visibility over potential future cash outflows in relation to the Italian antitrust fine and the EC investigation.
Conversely, Moody's could downgrade the ratings if Moby's liquidity deteriorates as a result of a further drop in operating performance or higher-than-expected capital expenditure, or if recovery prospects weaken in a potential debt restructuring.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Shipping Industry published in December 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
COMPANY PROFILE
Domiciled in Milan, Italy, Moby S.p.A. is a maritime transportation operator focusing primarily on passengers and freight transportation services in the Tyrrhenian Sea, mainly between continental Italy and Sardinia. Through Moby and its main subsidiary Tirrenia-CIN, the company operates a fleet of 64 ships, of which 47 are ferries and 17 tugboats. In 2018, the company recorded revenues of EUR584 million and EBITDA of EUR47.5 million.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on
www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
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Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on
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Guillaume Leglise