Operatività Cross euro/dollaro (2 lettori)

Rocky1980

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EUR USD (1.4810) There has been some talk amongst market
observers that the ECB will be pressured to raise interest rates
following a widely-expected 25-bp hike at the Norges Bank today.
Indeed, a recent Bloomberg poll shows that the one outlier from 17
economists surveyed predicted a 50-bp increase. Granted, Norway
lies on the continent, but it may as well be an island for all it has in
common with the eurozone economy. The Nordic country relies
mostly on commodity exports as the driver of its economy,
comparing more closely to Australia – the last major economy to
have raised interest rates – than to the eurozone. Furthermore,
property prices there have already climbed back to pre-crisis levels,
which obviously gives the central bank more room to manoeuvre.
But perhaps most importantly, the unemployment rate in Norway
rests around a comfortable three percent. Hence, there is little cause
for the ECB to follow any perceived trend in interest rate hikes;
especially when the trendsetters in question never endured the
same problems which still beset the eurozone.
Meanwhile, European economists Belke and Goecke reckon that the
pain threshold for German exporters lies at about $1.55 in the
EUR/USD. Whether Mr. Trichet and his central bank colleagues
agree with this estimation is uncertain. We’ll wager a dip-buying
strategy today, 50-pips ahead of good euro demand at 1.4650 (risklimit).
 

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