gastronomo
Forumer storico
U.S. payrolls seen at 193,00 in derivative auction
Fri Feb 4, 2005 08:15 AM ET
NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Investors on Friday were betting January U.S. payrolls would come in near to expectations, but also hedged against surprises in both directions for this notoriously volatile report.
An auction of economic derivatives on Friday morning produced an implied market forecast of a 193,000 increase in non-farm payrolls, little different from analysts' median estimate of 190,000.
The first leg of the auction on Thursday produced a forecast of 233,000 as investors hedged against an upside surprise. But Friday's action suggested some were having second thoughts.
The biggest single probability, at 11.3 percent, was put on a rise of between 150,000 and 175,000, while the consensus 175,000 to 200,000 outcome was given a 9.6 percent probability.
A sizable chunk of money bet on a sub par report, with an implied probability of 26 percent for a result of 125,000 or less. At the other end of the scale, investors gave a 31 percent chance of a rise of 250,000 or more.
Strikes in the auction cover blocks of 25,000 jobs.
Economic derivatives, offered by Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and interdealer broker ICAP, have a good history of showing how markets are positioned ahead of important economic figures, compared with the forecasts of economists.
Fri Feb 4, 2005 08:15 AM ET
NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Investors on Friday were betting January U.S. payrolls would come in near to expectations, but also hedged against surprises in both directions for this notoriously volatile report.
An auction of economic derivatives on Friday morning produced an implied market forecast of a 193,000 increase in non-farm payrolls, little different from analysts' median estimate of 190,000.
The first leg of the auction on Thursday produced a forecast of 233,000 as investors hedged against an upside surprise. But Friday's action suggested some were having second thoughts.
The biggest single probability, at 11.3 percent, was put on a rise of between 150,000 and 175,000, while the consensus 175,000 to 200,000 outcome was given a 9.6 percent probability.
A sizable chunk of money bet on a sub par report, with an implied probability of 26 percent for a result of 125,000 or less. At the other end of the scale, investors gave a 31 percent chance of a rise of 250,000 or more.
Strikes in the auction cover blocks of 25,000 jobs.
Economic derivatives, offered by Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and interdealer broker ICAP, have a good history of showing how markets are positioned ahead of important economic figures, compared with the forecasts of economists.
