Analisi Intermarket ....quelli che.... Investire&tradare - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione Dogtown
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Dogtown
Forever Ultras Ghetto
Dogtown
Forever Ultras Ghetto
Gold for December delivery GCZ3 -2.81% dropped $38.40 ounce, or 2.9%, to $1,288.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, gold fell $12.20, or nearly 1%, to settle at $1,327 an ounce, but marked the first quarterly gain in a year.
“Gold is selling off sharply with a lack of safe-haven demand in the short run,” said Jeffrey Wright, managing director at H.C. Wainwright LLC. “Part of the reason for the deflationary sentiment is the federal government is not expanding the deficit during the partial shutdown.”
A short shutdown has a minimal impact on the broader economy and does not change the Federal Reserve’s timetable on tapering quantitative easing, he said. Besides, the “bigger battle comes in two weeks with the debt ceiling. No deal on the debt ceiling will lead to safe-haven demand from all quarters and should cause a run on the U.S. dollar.”
But if the budget standoff stretches into next week, “then it could begin to negatively impact the U.S. dollar and drive demand for gold and other safe-haven assets,” Wright said.
The dollar index DXY -0.08% traded only modestly lower on Tuesday.
In the gold-futures market, volume was heavy amid the selloff, analysts said. Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., noted chatter that a major fund was said to be rebalancing its gold position.
“The event that will have the desired impact for the bulls is now 17 days away, when the fight draws to a climax on the debt-ceiling negotiations,” said Peter Hug, global trading director at Kitco Metals Inc., in a daily note. “If they blow this one, the work accomplished over the past few years will be for naught.”
Julian Phillips, a founder of and contributor to GoldForecaster.com, said that if the shutdown is not resolved within the next 17 days, “then the U.S. is likely to be downgraded in credit markets, its economy will falter and confidence in the U.S. as leader of the global economy will stumble.”
In that case, “we see the potential for an impact on the global system equal to the mid-2007 credit crunch,” he said. “This will be more than a ‘game of chicken’ as it has been building up for years now.” Read about what gold did before, during and after the last shutdown.
Other metals traded on Comex dropped, with silver, which is usually more volatile than gold given it’s a smaller market, leading the way. December silver SIZ3 -2.52% dropped 99 cents, or 4.6%, to $20.72 an ounce. Silver lost 7.7% for the month of September, and rose 11.5% for the quarter, based on the most-active contracts, FactSet data showed.
January platinum PLF4 -1.74% sank $33.60, or 2.4%, to $1,378.80 an ounce. Prices fell 7.5% for the month of September and rose 5.4% on the quarter. December palladium PAZ3 -0.98% PAZ3 -0.98% lost $11.15, or 1.5%, to trade at $716 an ounce, after gaining 0.5% for September and climbing 10% for the third quarter.
Copper for December delivery HGZ3 -1.44% dropped 6 cents, or 1.8%, to $3.26 a pound. It closed September with a 2.8% gain and the quarter with a gain of 8.7%.
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“Gold is selling off sharply with a lack of safe-haven demand in the short run,” said Jeffrey Wright, managing director at H.C. Wainwright LLC. “Part of the reason for the deflationary sentiment is the federal government is not expanding the deficit during the partial shutdown.”
A short shutdown has a minimal impact on the broader economy and does not change the Federal Reserve’s timetable on tapering quantitative easing, he said. Besides, the “bigger battle comes in two weeks with the debt ceiling. No deal on the debt ceiling will lead to safe-haven demand from all quarters and should cause a run on the U.S. dollar.”
But if the budget standoff stretches into next week, “then it could begin to negatively impact the U.S. dollar and drive demand for gold and other safe-haven assets,” Wright said.
The dollar index DXY -0.08% traded only modestly lower on Tuesday.
In the gold-futures market, volume was heavy amid the selloff, analysts said. Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., noted chatter that a major fund was said to be rebalancing its gold position.
“The event that will have the desired impact for the bulls is now 17 days away, when the fight draws to a climax on the debt-ceiling negotiations,” said Peter Hug, global trading director at Kitco Metals Inc., in a daily note. “If they blow this one, the work accomplished over the past few years will be for naught.”
Julian Phillips, a founder of and contributor to GoldForecaster.com, said that if the shutdown is not resolved within the next 17 days, “then the U.S. is likely to be downgraded in credit markets, its economy will falter and confidence in the U.S. as leader of the global economy will stumble.”
In that case, “we see the potential for an impact on the global system equal to the mid-2007 credit crunch,” he said. “This will be more than a ‘game of chicken’ as it has been building up for years now.” Read about what gold did before, during and after the last shutdown.
Other metals traded on Comex dropped, with silver, which is usually more volatile than gold given it’s a smaller market, leading the way. December silver SIZ3 -2.52% dropped 99 cents, or 4.6%, to $20.72 an ounce. Silver lost 7.7% for the month of September, and rose 11.5% for the quarter, based on the most-active contracts, FactSet data showed.
January platinum PLF4 -1.74% sank $33.60, or 2.4%, to $1,378.80 an ounce. Prices fell 7.5% for the month of September and rose 5.4% on the quarter. December palladium PAZ3 -0.98% PAZ3 -0.98% lost $11.15, or 1.5%, to trade at $716 an ounce, after gaining 0.5% for September and climbing 10% for the third quarter.
Copper for December delivery HGZ3 -1.44% dropped 6 cents, or 1.8%, to $3.26 a pound. It closed September with a 2.8% gain and the quarter with a gain of 8.7%.
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Dogtown
Forever Ultras Ghetto
Shutdown day arrives for markets. What happens now?
“The world’s largest economy looks like the land of Oz run by the munchkins,” William Buiter, Citi’s global chief economist to CNBC earlier.
The reactions to the shutdown are pouring in, across Twitter and across the investment world. It’s a slight bit of shock and awe (shock if you looked at gold prices GCZ3 -2.71% ) now that this day has finally dawned, as some out there thought, at least ahead of last weekend, that it would never really come.
To recap, some 800,000 workers have been furloughed, national parks are closed, though U.S. Mail and Social Security checks will keep going, due to the shutdown. Here’s how it may affect you personally. And if you are a data junkie, the biggest data piece of the week, nonfarm payrolls, will not be arriving as planned on Friday, unless the suits on Capitol Hill can work something out. More on the data rundown here.
Here’s a quick guide on what to expect from the economy to markets:
Economy: Several have run the numbers on what a brief government shutdown could do. Macroeconomic Advisors is one who ran the numbers and found a 0.3 percentage point drag on GDP in the fourth quarter. Like everyone else, including Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, who told us a couple of days ago we weren’t worrying enough, the debt ceiling is a far bigger monster in the closet.
Anthony Mirhaydari said two days ago that Washington was about to kill the economy. OK, well, we’re there now. He brushes past the budget bartering to say that if we don’t get the debt ceiling resolved by Oct. 17, 20% of federal spending worth 4% of GDP will be immediately cut. And stocks took a tumble of about 20% back in August 2011 when last went through this. He predicts worse this time. Keep the debt debate short and no one (the U.S. credit rating at least) gets hurt, says S&P.
Stock markets: Shutdown day dawned rather upbeat for stocks, given Monday’s pummeling, though it’s still anyone’s guess where this ends up later. Here’s what Alexander Friedman, UBS’s chief investment officer told Bloomberg:
“The market is not panicked about this. It sets up the political wrangling to take place now as opposed to in two weeks, making a debt default less likely. Between now and Oct. 17 is more of a buying opportunity. We haven’t reached any inflection point where investors should give up confidence.”
But don’t expect a path to gains strewn with rose petals. Nomura is among those who have been telling us that the next several weeks could see lots of volatility in financial markets, which could be the biggest threat to the economy. Danske Bank’s Allan von Mehren is very worried, about indirect costs of a shutdown, uncertainty for business and consumers, and problems for debt ceiling talks. He also sees any tapering being pushed out to December now. Stocks could further correct, he warns. More on whether the shutdown is a buy or a sell opportunity?
Dollar: The dollar DXY -0.13% is under pressure amid fears a shutdown will hit the country’s economy. Citi analyst Steven Englander sees the dollar will likely head lower against the yen USDJPY -0.40% , but could rise against emerging-market currencies, while investors could go running to the British pound GBPUSD +0.08% , some of what was already seen overnight.
Bonds: Yields 10_YEAR are rising on a safety hunt, but there’s no sign of panic as of Tuesday. If the shutdown stretches on though, investors will worry Congress can’t raise its borrowing limit and put a big question mark over the government’s ability to pay its debts, something that could also hit the dollar’s safe-haven status.
Gold: A dramatic tumble for gold has greeted investors on Tuesday, as investors shrugged off the shutdown and analysts said funds were selling hard. Kitco’s Peter Hug is among those who have noting with concern that the market hasn’t benefited much up to the shutdown. Gold bugs got another kick in the gut on Tuesday. Hug says now that the market has shrugged off reality Tuesday, the bigger event is now 17 days away.
“The world’s largest economy looks like the land of Oz run by the munchkins,” William Buiter, Citi’s global chief economist to CNBC earlier.
The reactions to the shutdown are pouring in, across Twitter and across the investment world. It’s a slight bit of shock and awe (shock if you looked at gold prices GCZ3 -2.71% ) now that this day has finally dawned, as some out there thought, at least ahead of last weekend, that it would never really come.
To recap, some 800,000 workers have been furloughed, national parks are closed, though U.S. Mail and Social Security checks will keep going, due to the shutdown. Here’s how it may affect you personally. And if you are a data junkie, the biggest data piece of the week, nonfarm payrolls, will not be arriving as planned on Friday, unless the suits on Capitol Hill can work something out. More on the data rundown here.
Here’s a quick guide on what to expect from the economy to markets:
Economy: Several have run the numbers on what a brief government shutdown could do. Macroeconomic Advisors is one who ran the numbers and found a 0.3 percentage point drag on GDP in the fourth quarter. Like everyone else, including Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, who told us a couple of days ago we weren’t worrying enough, the debt ceiling is a far bigger monster in the closet.
Anthony Mirhaydari said two days ago that Washington was about to kill the economy. OK, well, we’re there now. He brushes past the budget bartering to say that if we don’t get the debt ceiling resolved by Oct. 17, 20% of federal spending worth 4% of GDP will be immediately cut. And stocks took a tumble of about 20% back in August 2011 when last went through this. He predicts worse this time. Keep the debt debate short and no one (the U.S. credit rating at least) gets hurt, says S&P.
Stock markets: Shutdown day dawned rather upbeat for stocks, given Monday’s pummeling, though it’s still anyone’s guess where this ends up later. Here’s what Alexander Friedman, UBS’s chief investment officer told Bloomberg:
“The market is not panicked about this. It sets up the political wrangling to take place now as opposed to in two weeks, making a debt default less likely. Between now and Oct. 17 is more of a buying opportunity. We haven’t reached any inflection point where investors should give up confidence.”
But don’t expect a path to gains strewn with rose petals. Nomura is among those who have been telling us that the next several weeks could see lots of volatility in financial markets, which could be the biggest threat to the economy. Danske Bank’s Allan von Mehren is very worried, about indirect costs of a shutdown, uncertainty for business and consumers, and problems for debt ceiling talks. He also sees any tapering being pushed out to December now. Stocks could further correct, he warns. More on whether the shutdown is a buy or a sell opportunity?
Dollar: The dollar DXY -0.13% is under pressure amid fears a shutdown will hit the country’s economy. Citi analyst Steven Englander sees the dollar will likely head lower against the yen USDJPY -0.40% , but could rise against emerging-market currencies, while investors could go running to the British pound GBPUSD +0.08% , some of what was already seen overnight.
Bonds: Yields 10_YEAR are rising on a safety hunt, but there’s no sign of panic as of Tuesday. If the shutdown stretches on though, investors will worry Congress can’t raise its borrowing limit and put a big question mark over the government’s ability to pay its debts, something that could also hit the dollar’s safe-haven status.
Gold: A dramatic tumble for gold has greeted investors on Tuesday, as investors shrugged off the shutdown and analysts said funds were selling hard. Kitco’s Peter Hug is among those who have noting with concern that the market hasn’t benefited much up to the shutdown. Gold bugs got another kick in the gut on Tuesday. Hug says now that the market has shrugged off reality Tuesday, the bigger event is now 17 days away.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Nonostante il perdurante scetticismo per le condizioni economiche dell'economia mondiale, nonostante la polarizzazione degli schieramenti politici che sta avvenendo a livello globale e di cui noi siamo la massima esemplificazione, nonostante la polarizzazione delle divergenze sociali delle singole popolazioni nazionali che rischiano di creare situazioni esplosive i mercati finanziari imbevuti di liquidità sembrano ancora una volta non avere intenzione di fermarsi nonostante le divergenze messe in mostra negli ultimi mesi/settimane/giorni.
Ora chi mi legge sa che sono in attesa che prima o poi questa situazioni si catalizzi in un elemento di negatività al di fuori del corrente pensiero e mostri la faccia cattiva degli eccessi precedenti; considerazione che si regge su valori fondamentali non certo a sconto, su una situazione macro in miglioramento ma non robusta e la mancata risoluzione del problema dell'eccesivo debito e della sovrapproduzione mondiale.
Ma ad oggi i segnali sembrerebbero mostrare l'intenzione degli indici di salire sopra i recenti massimi e di costruire un top più alto dei livelli visti in precedenza.
In particolare il Russell2000 è andato oggi a realizzare nuovi massimi assoluti, l'indice presenta un P/E da bolla speculativa sopra i 19 eppure viene ancora comprato con buona forza da parte del mercato anticipando anche il comportamento del dow trasportation e del value line che sono spesso indici anticipatori sebbene questi abbiano fatto il top già a metà settembre.
E' un mercato driven liquidity e quindi assolutamente pericoloso ma mostra forza relativa e con quella ci dobbiamo confrontare nonostante le considerazioni macro non favorevoli. Anche il listini italiano ha recuperato buona parte della sottoperformance degli ultimi giorni nonostante le condizioni in cui si muove sia politiche che macro segno dalle voglia di comprare un listino sottovalutato.
A mio modo di vedere finchè o non si ferma il flusso di liquidità o finchè non si distrugge in cattivi investimenti o in una bolla del debito il vantaggio competitivo dei long sui mercati azionari c'è.
Cosa monitorare ce lo siamo già detti, ora occorre la risposta dei mercati.
Ora chi mi legge sa che sono in attesa che prima o poi questa situazioni si catalizzi in un elemento di negatività al di fuori del corrente pensiero e mostri la faccia cattiva degli eccessi precedenti; considerazione che si regge su valori fondamentali non certo a sconto, su una situazione macro in miglioramento ma non robusta e la mancata risoluzione del problema dell'eccesivo debito e della sovrapproduzione mondiale.
Ma ad oggi i segnali sembrerebbero mostrare l'intenzione degli indici di salire sopra i recenti massimi e di costruire un top più alto dei livelli visti in precedenza.
In particolare il Russell2000 è andato oggi a realizzare nuovi massimi assoluti, l'indice presenta un P/E da bolla speculativa sopra i 19 eppure viene ancora comprato con buona forza da parte del mercato anticipando anche il comportamento del dow trasportation e del value line che sono spesso indici anticipatori sebbene questi abbiano fatto il top già a metà settembre.
E' un mercato driven liquidity e quindi assolutamente pericoloso ma mostra forza relativa e con quella ci dobbiamo confrontare nonostante le considerazioni macro non favorevoli. Anche il listini italiano ha recuperato buona parte della sottoperformance degli ultimi giorni nonostante le condizioni in cui si muove sia politiche che macro segno dalle voglia di comprare un listino sottovalutato.
A mio modo di vedere finchè o non si ferma il flusso di liquidità o finchè non si distrugge in cattivi investimenti o in una bolla del debito il vantaggio competitivo dei long sui mercati azionari c'è.
Cosa monitorare ce lo siamo già detti, ora occorre la risposta dei mercati.
Allegati
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Da notare che quel canale rialzista si può tranquillamente definire il canale QE....
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Per fermare il flusso di liquidità devono agire le banche centrali, non ci sono altre alternative ma ci sono dei problemi a riguardo che Hussman sottolinea nel suo commento settimanale...
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Charles Plosser and the 50% Contraction in the Fed's Balance Sheet - April 11, 2011
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Charles Plosser and the 50% Contraction in the Fed's Balance Sheet - April 11, 2011
