Li sentite gli schricchiolii sugli emergenti?.. oggi al centro ci sono soprattutto i sudamericani ma l'effetto contagio puo diffondersi velocemente...
Un commento tecnico sulla situazione Turca:
TRY - More pain to come..
It is all about FX reserves depletion in Turkey now...With the FX interventions today (so far), net FX reserves (excluding the FX liquidity arrested from banks via the ROM) are now at USD32-33bn. The Central Bank continues to 'live the dream', under the assumption the ROM is an effective stabilizer mechanism. But guess what, since the beginning of the recent TRY crisis, banks have withdrawn less than USD5bn from over USD60bn in FX deposited at the CBT. The CBT will be inevitably more aggressive going forward, but as it sells more FX the markets may get even more nervous given their 'real' FX reserves adequacy ratios: 1.6 months of imports (import coverage) and 0.3 of Reserves/ Short-term debt. In order to circumvent that, Turkey will need a much higher short-term funding cost. This curve will invert MUCH MORE..